Физико-математическое моделирование взаимодействия поверхности суши с атмосферой при решении гидрологических,

-

,

..

- - , , , ( ) *), , *) LSM- Land Surface Models

LSM

Land surface model SWAP ( Soil Water - Atmosphere Plants )

- - /

/

Soil - Vegetation - Atmosphere - System

121-180

,

,

,

.

SWAP SWAP

/

: 1 3 : 3 4

1

, 1 2

1

()

/

: 1 3 : 3 4

1

, 1 2

1

()

SVAS .

RS RL - , RL,f -

, RL,s - , RS,s - , RL,f -

, RS,f - , Hf Ef - , ; Hs Hsf -

, ; G - ; EC , wET , Es , IMf , IMs - , , , ,

, ( = I+ w - , I w).

/

.

P - , ET - ; ES - ; EC - , ; Esn - ; I -

; Ys - ; YG - , Yf .

UPSCALINGUPSCALING

Tair ( 2 )

Qair ( 2 )

Wind ( 10 ) SWdown LWdown Psurf Rainf Rainf_C Snowf

VegClass LAI (Total LAI) vegFrac , grnFrac (green LAI / Total LAI) classFrac Z0Surf DisplH Albedo RootDepth

(, 95% )

Rs_min M

SoilClass SoilDepth Clay Clay fraction

Sand Sand fraction

Silt Silt fraction

Organic

W_fieldcap

W_wilt W_sat W_bpower B W_sat_hydc

W_sat_matp

Albedo_vi

Albedo_ir

:

SWAP SWAP

- ( ) - , - , - - - - , , , , -

- , - , - ,

- ( ) - , - , - - - - , , , , -

- , - , - ,

SWAP

- ,

- ,

- ,

- ,

SWAP

, -

- , 1966-1983

0.36 2

0.45 2

, -, 80-90

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

-40-30-20-10

0

XII - 1966 I - 1967 II - 1967 III - 1967

-40-30-20-10

0 XII - 1967 I - 1968 II - 1968 III - 1968

-40-30-20-10

0

XII - 1968 I - 1969 II - 1969 III - 1969

RMSD =2.9 oC r = 0.98 Eff=0.84

( ) ( ) (/) ( ) ( )

(/)

-0.8-0.4

00.4

I II III

-0.4-0.2

00.20.4

XII I II III

-0.6

-0.2

0.2

0.6

I II III

1970

1970-1971

1972

( ) ( ) (/)

( ) ( ) (/)

01020304050

III IV III IV III IV III IV III IV 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

(1) (2) (/) (1978-1981).

(1) (2) (/) (1978-1981).

1978

05

10152025 1

2

05

1015 1979

1980

05

10152025

1981

05

10152025

J F M A M J J A S O N D

RMSD =1.6 / r = 0.79 Eff=0.67

Pint ,

Ps ( SWAP), , , -

Pint ,

Ps ( SWAP), , , -

0

200

400

600

800

10001

2

3

P int , P s ,

1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982

100

0

20

40

60

80

(

)

(SWAP)32 %

(, , 1988)

25-40 %

(SWAP)

72 %(, 1977)

65-70 %

(SWAP)32 %

(, , 1988)

25-40 %

(SWAP)

72 %(, 1977)

65-70 %

( ) ( ) S, sn h ( )

( ) ( ) S, sn h ( )

400

200

0

sn , /3

400

0

200

0

50

100h,

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

050

100150200

S ,

400

200

0

sn , /3

400

0

200

0

50

100h,

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

050

100150200

S ,

1973 1974

RMSD = 43 r = 0.78

RMSD = 14 c r = 0.85

0

50

100

0

100

200

300

0100200300400

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 19750

2

1

( ) ( ) (, )

( ) ( ) (, )

,

0-20

0-50

0-100

,

RMSD=11 r=0.80

RMSD=24 r=0.77

RMSD=34 r=0.82

, , ,

South Grate Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997

SGP-97 Rn, LE H (35 .., 98 .., , )

-2000

200400600800

1000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

(TM) (JN) () R n, -2

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

, -2

( ) 10 1997

-200

0

200

400

600

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

LE , -2

( ), .

()

, , . , .

/ /

()

, , . , .

/ /

: 1000-2000 m:

: , : , ,

( - 21.2 km2 )

Calibration watershed

Validation watershed

( )

: RL:

, , RL0 - , - ( ), - -, N - , T - 2 , a b .

RL=RL0 (1+aN )b RL0= T

4

= 0.76, a = 0.126 b = 3.17

RL, 1998-2000 .

GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment), .

Asian MonsoonExperiment

GAME-Siberia

GEWEX

( ) ( ) .

0

100

200

300

400

SWr-daily LWr-daily , -2

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

0

100

200

300

400

SWr-daily LWr-daily , -2

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

LWdown_obs LWdown_cal , -2

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

LWdown_obs LWdown_cal , -2

1969 1978 . :

( )

3 :

2 :

5 .

: 30

3/3 3/3 3/3 /

0.55 0.07 0.27 0.59 2.410-4

1.69 0.08 0.26 0.45 1.110-3

0.89 0.06 0.27 0.47 4.410-4

1.75 0.10 0.31 0.39 2.410-4

0.79 0.06 0.30 0.40 2.510-6

1.74 0.06 0.29 0.39 4.210-4

( ) ( ) R

. 1969-1978 .

0

10

20

30

1975 1976 1977 1978

R , / RMSE=1.13 mm/d Corr=0.72 Eff=0.48

0

10

20

30

1969 1970 1971

R , / RMSE=0.99 mm/d Corr=0.76 Eff=0.58

-60

-40

-20

0

20

12

t 0 1969

-60

-40

-20

0

201970

-60

-40

-20

0

20

I IVII III V IXVIIIVIIVI X XII

1971

(1) SWAP (2) ()

XI

1 2 3 4 5 6

,

h ,

1969 1973197219711970

100

0

50

200

150

100

50

0

250

h ,

1974 1978197719761975

,

0

50

100

150

200

250

50 0

100

(1, 2, 5) (3, 4, 6) (1, 3) (2, 4)

, h (5, 6).

-100

102030405060

12

1976197519741973 1977 1978

E , /

IV VIII XII IV IV IV IV IV VIIIVIIIVIII VIIIVIII XIIXIIXII XIIXII

(1) (2) .

. . : -, ,

-.

R ()

. , - -

)

0

5

10

15

)

0

6

12

18

)

0

4

8

12

16

1970 19721971

.

.

.

RMSE= 1.02 Eff= 0.57 Corr=0.76

RMSE= 1.28 Eff= 0.53 Corr=0.78

RMSE= 1.10 Eff= 0.64 Corr=0.81

N

x obs x cal RMSD Ef r

. * 8 1.20/440 1.04/380 0.002667 2.46/69.1 0.45/0.53 0.74/0.95

. 10 0.52/189 0.46/167 0.002727 1.04/35.5 0.58/0.76 0.77/0.92

. 10 0.60/219 0.48/175 0.002727 1.14/51.2 0.47/0.44 0.72/0.93. ** 3 0.44/161 0.36/133 0.002857 0.94/58.0 0.61/0.51 0.79/0.97

. 10 0.58/212 0.46/168 0.002791 1.02/50.7 0.57/0.60 0.76/0.97

. - 10 0.76/277 0.74/268 0.0025 1.28/45.8 0.53/0.56 0.78/0.84. - *** 7 0.73/266 0.64/235 0.002667 1.10/48.7 0.64/0.63 0.81/0.88

() () ()

: N- ; * - 1971-1978; ** - 1969-1971; *** - 1969-1971 1975-1978 .

( ) c . (: 86996 km2)

- - - ( 4000 ), - ,

Rhone-AGG

Rhone-AGG

( 1 ) ( 2 ) (1986-1989 .): - - -

( 1 ) ( 2 ) (1986-1989 .): - - -

RMSD= 26.9 r2 = 0.74 bias =1 .6

-0.6-0.4-0.2

00.20.40.60.8

1

SWA

P

VIS

A

ISB

A

CLA

SS

CLA

SS_R

ERU

N

VIC

_rer

un

SPO

NSO

R_R

ERU

N

ECM

WF

VIC

NSI

PP

MEC

MW

F

NO

AH

CO

LA_R

ERU

N

MO

SES

OR

CH

IDEE

_RER

UN

SIB

UC

MO

SES_

RER

UN

OR

CH

IDEE

CO

LA

SPO

NSO

R

RMSE(m)R^2BIAS(m)

SWA

P

() ()

,

Rhone-AGG ( 3 24 )

(1) (2) ., - .

.

Eff = 0.80 r2 = 0.82 Vc/Vm = 0.998

Eff = 0.69 r2 = 0.78 Vc/Vm = 1.097

Eff = 0.50 r2 = 0.64 Vc/Vm = 0.909

.

1 2 3

: 1986 . 1989 .

.

(/) 1- 3-

( 3 1986 1989)

1

3

GSWP-2: LSM- , , , 10- (1986-1995 .)

, 0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

3 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

5 0 0 0

GSWP-2 1

15238

Tair ( 2 )

Qair ( 2 )

Wind ( 10 ) SWdown LWdown Psurf Rainf Rainf_C Snowf

/ - ISLSCP II (International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology

Project Initiative II )/ GSWP-2 (The Second Global Soil Wetness Project)/ :

NCEP-DOE (The National Center for Environmental Prediction - Department of Energy) ERA-40 (ECMWF Re-analysis-40, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

, ..

,

NCEP-DOE , ,

1. , : NCEP-DOE ERA-40

2. SRB (Surface Radiation Budget). GSWP-2 3- , / (NASA/Langley Research Center)

3. ISCCP, The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project

, ,

1986 . 1995 . - SRB (Surface Radiation Budget)

1982 . 1985 . - 1995 . NCEP-DOE , SRB

c ( ), /

( 1986 1995 .)

01 0 02 0 04 0 06 0 08 0 01 0 0 01 5 0 02 0 0 03 0 0 0

- 1 8 0 - 1 6 0 - 1 4 0 - 1 2 0 - 1 0 0 - 8 0 - 6 0 - 4 0 - 2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

L o n g i t u d e , d e g r e e

- 6 0

- 4 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, deg

ree

, oC

- 3 0- 2 5- 2 0- 1 5- 1 0- 5051 01 52 02 53 0

( )

-1 oC

- 1 8 0 - 1 5 0 - 1 2 0 - 9 0 - 6 0 - 3 0 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 1 2 0 1 5 0 1 8 0

L o n g i t u d e

- 6 0

- 3 0

0

3 0

6 0

9 0

Latit

ude

,

, SWAP

0

4

8

1 2

1 6

2 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

(LAI)

GSWP-2

0

0 . 2

0 . 4

0 . 6

0 . 8

1

1 . 2

1 . 4

,

he International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), Initiative II SWAP

- 6 . 2

- 5 . 8

- 5 . 4

- 5

- 4 . 6

- 4 . 2

K0, / ( - Ln(K0))

Ln(K0)

, , , , GSWP-2 GSWP-2 1991 1991

SWAPSWAP

LSM-LSM-

0

50

100

150

200

250

VISASWAPISBA

, 1992 62 ..., 147 ... ( .)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

- -

052 05 01 0 02 0 04 0 08 0 01 0 0 01 5 0 0

- 1 8 0 - 1 6 0 - 1 4 0 - 1 2 0 - 1 0 0 - 8 0 - 6 0 - 4 0 - 2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0


- 6 0

- 4 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, deg

ree

, / SWAP ( 1985-1996 .)

052 05 01 0 02 0 04 0 06 0 08 0 01 0 0 0

- 1 8 0 - 1 6 0 - 1 4 0 - 1 2 0 - 1 0 0 - 8 0 - 6 0 - 4 0 - 2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0


- 6 0

- 4 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, deg

ree

, / SWAP ( 1985-1996 .)

01 02 05 01 0 02 0 05 0 01 0 0 01 5 0 02 0 0 0

- 1 8 0 - 1 6 0 - 1 4 0 - 1 2 0 - 1 0 0 - 8 0 - 6 0 - 4 0 - 2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0


- 6 0

- 4 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, deg

ree

, /

SWAP ( 1985-1996 .)

01 0 02 0 04 0 06 0 08 0 01 0 0 01 2 0 01 5 0 02 0 0 0

- 1 8 0 - 1 6 0 - 1 4 0 - 1 2 0 - 1 0 0 - 8 0 - 6 0 - 4 0 - 2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0


- 6 0

- 4 0

- 2 0

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, deg

ree

, /

SWAP ( 1985-1996 .)

-100

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0- 2 0 - 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0


0

1 0 0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 4 0 0

, /

SWAP ( 1986 1995 .)

.. . 1974.

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Latit

ude,

deg

ree

- 2 0 - 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0L o n g i t u d e , d e g r e e

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0- 2 0 - 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0


- 5 0

0

1 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

- 4 0

- 3 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

Latit

ude

, g

egre

e

- 2 0 - 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0L o n g i t u d e , d e g r e e

, /

SWAP ( 1986 1995 .)

.. . 1974.

( ), /

SWAP ( 1986 1995 .)

.. . 1974.

- 1 7 0 - 1 5 0 - 1 3 0 - 1 1 0 - 9 0 - 7 0 - 5 0


- 1 0 0

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 4 0 0

- 1 7 0 - 1 5 0 - 1 3 0 - 1 1 0 - 9 0 - 7 0 - 5 0


Latit

ude,

deg

ree

- 1 7 0 - 1 5 0 - 1 3 0 - 1 1 0 - 9 0 - 7 0 - 5 0


1 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 0

( ),

/

SWAP ( 1986 1995 .)

.. . 1974.

- 1 7 0 - 1 5 0 - 1 3 0 - 1 1 0 - 9 0 - 7 0 - 5 0


0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

Latit

ude,

deg

ree

0

(/)

-

SWAP *

PERR/P

10175514630.46

6954562380.34

6785611180.17

7534682750.36

15069575480.36

7495601880.25

8375622720.33

(1974)**

PERR/P

7344153190.43

7264332930.40

6865471390.20

6703832870.43

164810655830.35

7365102260.31

8345402940.35

*** (1971),

(1970)

PERR/P

6403902500.39

6003102900.48

6904302600.38

6603203400.52

16307009300.57

470420500.11

7304203100.42

**** (1976)

E 470 400 500 400 850 490 450

(1974)PERR/P

7905072830.36

7404163240.44

7405871530.21

7564183380.45

16009106900.43

7915112800.35

8004803200.40

, (1975)

PERR/P

6573752820.43

6964202760.40

6965821140.16

6454032420.38

15649466180.40

8035342690.33

7504802700.36

* , , , . ** , , ( : P=440 /, R=47 / E=393 /), , . *** . **** , , .

.

.

-

730 310 420 0.58 0.42

(1974)540 0.65 0.35

Korzun et al. (1974) 320 480 0.40

480

354 450 0.44

820

800 0.37

ERP

(/) (P), (R), (E), (R/P)

(E/P)

E/P R/P

0.33837

845 573 0.32

438

0.64470730

294

250

800 0.60

(1964) (1971), (1970)

Baumgartner, Reichel (1975)

(1976)

Legates, Willmott(1990) **)

UNESCO (1999)

SWAP ( )

SWAP ( )

746 266 0.64 0.36

0.56804

294 506 0.63

273 563

271

0.67

0.68

0.34

Mather (1969) 712 274 0.62 0.38

834

( **) )

769 295 473 0.62 0.38

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, de

gree

, /

2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0 1 8 0 1 9 0

L o n g i t u d e , d e g r e e- 5 0

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, de

gree

SWAP (1985-1996)

, 1974

, /

2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0 1 8 0 1 9 0


1 0

2 0

5 0

1 0 0

2 0 0

4 0 0

6 0 0

8 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 2 0 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, de

gree

0

SWAP (1985-1996)

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

Latit

ude

, de

gree

, 1974

. . (( 78000 78000 22 ) )

[[ Kanae et alKanae et al.,1995; .,1995; OkiOki, 1997; , 1997; OkiOki, , SudSud, 1998, 1998 ]]

Sr Yin - , ( , ) Yout -

dSrdt=Y inY out

Y out=uedc

Srd ue ( ). ue 0.35 0.36 / [Miller et al., 1994; Kanae et al., 1995; Oki et al., 1999]

Eff=1( xcalxobs )

2

( xobsx

obs

)2

bias, ,

(xcal) (xobs) Corr ( )

- [Nash, Sutcliffe, 1970] Eff,

[ ., 1974]: Eff > 0.75 - 0.36 < Eff < 0.75

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) . . . .

biasbias = 141 / ( 40% ), = 141 / ( 40% ), CorrCorr = 0.94, = 0.94, EffEff = - = - 0.490.49

EffEff BiasBias

GSWPGSWP-2 1983-1995 .-2 1983-1995 .

ExtExt XX YY

(X, Y)

(X, Y) X Y,

( 1986 1994 ) ( 1986 1994 ) ( .): ( .): (1)(1) (2)(2) GSWPGSWP-2-2

GSWP

|Log10(kK0)| khr albsn kalbsum kh0 n, /1/3 ue, / klp ksp ksw klw

( ) ( ) . . ( ) . . ( )

( ) ( )

bias = -2 /, Corr = 0.89, Eff =0.80

bias = 116 /, Corr = 0.93, Eff = - 0.50

( ) ( ) . . ( ), . . ( ),

.. .. GSWP-2GSWP-2, , ( ) ( )

bias = 165 /, Corr = 0.85, Eff = - 0.50

bias = 0 /, Corr = 0.91, Eff = 0.82

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) . . . .

bias = -2 /, Corr = 0.97, Eff =0.93

bias = 0 /, Corr = 0.97, Eff = 0.94

. (324 000 .) . (324 000 .)

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) . . . .

/ / //

bias = -1%, Corr = 0.92, Eff = 0.82( )

bias = -11%, Corr = 0.91, Eff = 0.82( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) . . - . . -

( .) ( .)/ / //

bias = -9 %, Corr = 0.90, Eff = 0.79

R, /

(1) SWAP (2) R ,

., Eff=0.83

., Eff=0.85

., Eff=0.60

(), () () .

Eff=0.80

Eff =0.78

Eff=0.74

Bias (% )=3.6

Bias (%)=-9.5

Bias (%) = -6.6

SWAP VIC

, , , , (Bias, %, Eff )

, Bias Eff

SWAP 1986-1994 -2 0.96SWAP 1981-2000 -9 0.94SWAP . 1967-1998 3 0.91

SWAPSWAP

VICVICVICVICVIC

.

1967 19921967 1990

1979-19991979-19991979-19991979-19991979-1999

113

-9-15-16

15

0.860.89

0.830.770.850.830.85

4% 0.09

(), (), () .

A1

,

.

:

,

, .

- 1 SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios): - IPCC

( ), , , MAGICC/SCENGEN, , .

MAGICC / SCENGEN: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change / A Global and Regional Climate Scenario Generator

[Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change, 2000]

( ), SCENGEN.

HadCM2 Hadley Centre Unified Model 2 Transient Ensemble-mean (UK)UKTR UK Met. Office/Hadley Centre Transient

CSIRO-TR Commonwealth Scientific and Ind. Research Org., Transient (Australia)

ECHAM4 European Centre/Gamburg Model 4 Transient (Germany)

UKHI-EQ UK Met. Office High Resolution

CSIRO2-EQ Commonwealth Scientific and Ind. Research Org., Mark 2 (Australia)


UIUC-EQ University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign (USA)


CSIRO1-EQ Commonwealth Scientific and Ind. Research Org., Mark 1 (Australia)

CCC-EQ Canadian Climate Centre (Canada)

GFDL-TR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient (USA)

BMRC-EQ Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (Australia)

CGCM1-TR Canadian Climate Centre for Modelling and Analysis 1 Transient (Canada)

NCAR-DOE National Centre for Atmospheric Research (DoE) Transient (USA)

CCSR/NIES Centre for Climate Research Studies/NIES (Japan)

, .

XXI

SRES .

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

, /

:

1 2 1 2

(1967 1998 .)

. SRES.

A1

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

,

/

A2

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2039-2063

2015-2038

1991-2014

1967-1990

B1

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

,

/

B2

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

()

.

XXI

SRES .

. /, 1967 1990 2039 2063 .

SRES A1

2039 2063 . 1967 1990 .

..,

..,

()

. /, 1967 1990 2039 2063 .

SRES A1

..,

2039 2063 . 1967 1990 .

..,

LAST SLIDE

Thank you!

Yeugeniy M. GUSEV [email protected]

FOR CONTACT

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Education

Физико-математическое моделирование взаимодействия поверхности суши с атмосферой при решении гидрологических,