Гидрологическое моделирование крупных речных бассейнов с помощью программного комплекса ECOMAG (Ю.Г

1. ECOMAGECOMAG ECOMAGECOMAG

2. Hydrological models and technologyHydrological models and technologyHydrological models and technologyHydrological models and technology Technological LevelTechnological LevelClassifications of Hydrological ModelsClassifications of Hydrological Models Numerical ModelNumerical ModelNumerical ModelNumerical Model Modelling SystemModelling SystemModelling SystemModelling System Industrial User-FriendlyIndustrial User-Friendly Software ProductSoftware Product Industrial User-FriendlyIndustrial User-Friendly Software ProductSoftware Product IntelligentIntelligent ModellingModelling SystemSystem IntelligentIntelligent ModellingModelling SystemSystem Computerised FormulaeComputerised FormulaeComputerised FormulaeComputerised FormulaeHydrological Simulations ModelsHydrological Simulations ModelsHydrological Simulations ModelsHydrological Simulations Models JointJoint Stochastic - DeterministicStochastic - Deterministic JointJoint Stochastic - DeterministicStochastic - Deterministic StochasticStochasticStochasticStochasticDeterministicDeterministicDeterministicDeterministic EmpiricalEmpirical (black box)(black box) EmpiricalEmpirical (black box)(black box) LumpedLumped ConceptualConceptual (grey box)(grey box) LumpedLumped ConceptualConceptual (grey box)(grey box) DistributedDistributed Physically-Physically- basedbased (white box)(white box) DistributedDistributed Physically-Physically- basedbased (white box)(white box)

3. Infiltration Unfrozen soil - 167.15.0 )()( = = + Bnhiq q x qB t hB c q x q x Q C D x Q t Q C + = + )( 1 2 2 + + = K z I D z D zt I t I w i t W z T K z I D z D z T zt T c wIwwT + + + = )()( ; = K z K zt LAI rr qTq E sa af f a + = )1( )(* ag ag ag r qTqr E = )(* t i z q t w w Iw w = 1 t i L z T zz T C Ief s ef + = 1)(

4. , , , , LBQQRhh dt dD LefL /)()( 2 00 =+ Q=iKxBh, a lr = , 2 1 2 == r s l a l , QEVa dt dhaD = )( 2 , Q=2lrikh=aikh/ls=2h, av gs avav avg h l ki EV dt dhD )( 2 , ScEV dt dS avav 1)( = , S=Dghav/2 c1= gsg l ki D 2 .

5. Infiltration Unfrozen soil ( ) f S T SsEsRh)(I dt d w i += f SVwE T SwR(Wh) dt d += + = W)I,(h,sv I i sE T S n sR w dt dh f HgH gT T f H 0 T f dt f dH f Q = )/L 0 Q L (QmRb) 0 h 0 b L h L (b dt d 2 1 =+ b/n5/3h1/2iQ = h f f H S f TH S 0 T + = Q/Lm)b G V(V(bh) dt d D += ( ) [ ])mR/Kexp(1mK R 0 dKKexpV == ihxbKQ = += 0,5 t f Q T T 22 f H T H + = 2)I i c/(1 4 WP l P WPI l P l KmK )eWd(WekE = We=(FC+WP)/2

6. - - - -

7. CC CC

9. The European multi-The European multi- disciplinary Northerndisciplinary Northern hemisphere climatehemisphere climate Process land surfaceProcess land surface Experiment (Experiment (NOPEXNOPEX)) within the IGBP-BACHwithin the IGBP-BACH framework,framework, Sweden.Sweden. The national NorwegianThe national Norwegian New generation ofNew generation of Hydrological ModelsHydrological Models project.project. Norway.Norway. 10E 20E0 Norwa y Sweden 70N 30E Finland NOPEX area Denmark Uppsala Oslo 65N 60N 55N

10. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) Split sample and Proxy tests: - 3 basins used for calibration, - 6 for validation Validation against independent data: - flux measurements from masts - synoptic discharge measurements - synoptic soil moisture and groundwater level measurements Comparison of measured and simulated discharges Basin Fyrisn Synoptic measurements 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Simulated discharges (m^3/s) Observeddischarges(m^3/s) 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Simulated discharges (m^3/s) Observeddischarges(m^3/s) Mean soil moisture vs. area 24.5.1996 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 100 10000 1000000 Square root of area (m) Volumetricsoilmoisture Mean groundwater level vs. area 24.5.1996 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1 100 10000 1000000 Square root of area (m) Groundwaterlevel Length scale: NOPEX 1-2 km

11. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) An esker Forest with till soil Agriculural land with clay soil

12. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) Year 1981/82 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1981/82 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1981/82 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1982/83 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1982/83 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1982/83 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1983/84 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1983/84 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1983/84 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1984/85 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1984/85 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1984/85 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1985/86 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1985/86 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1985/86 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1986/87 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1986/87 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1986/87 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1987/88 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1987/88 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1987/88 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s)

13. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 ECOMAG-model (mm/day) Mastwholeregion(mm/day)

14. ECOMAG ECOMAG -- ECOMAG ECOMAG -- - - ECOMAG

17. - 1%, 2%, 4%, 10%

20. OPERATIVE SUPPORTOPERATIVE SUPPORT of rof river-basin organizations ofiver-basin organizations of Federal Water Resources AgencyFederal Water Resources Agency OPERATIVE SUPPORTOPERATIVE SUPPORT of rof river-basin organizations ofiver-basin organizations of Federal Water Resources AgencyFederal Water Resources Agency Operative informationOperative information

21. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Digital Elevation ModelDigital Elevation Model GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Digital Elevation ModelDigital Elevation Model

22. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Landscape ModelLandscape Model GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Landscape ModelLandscape Model

23. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Type MapSoil Type Map GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Type MapSoil Type Map

24. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Mechanical Composition MapSoil Mechanical Composition Map GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Mechanical Composition MapSoil Mechanical Composition Map

26. - - - - - - ArcGisArcGis Ecomag-extensionEcomag-extension Ecomag-extensionEcomag-extension , , , , - ,- ,

27. - - ECOMAG ExtentionECOMAG Extention - - ECOMAG ExtentionECOMAG Extention () (ECOMAG)

28. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT River Basin Schematization SoftwareRiver Basin Schematization Software GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT River Basin Schematization SoftwareRiver Basin Schematization Software Lena River Basin

31. . K kr . K kr 100 1830 750 500 390 3500 1000 200 6700 2000 100 13500 4000 50 27000 8000 25 55000

32. N () F () K kr N () F () K kr 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr N 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr F, km2

33. 20 20.0.033 20 20.0.033 20.03.2009 20.03.2010 20.03.2011

34. ( (33 ) 2001-2011 . (. .)) 2001-2011 . (. .) ( (33 ) 2001-2011 . (. .)) 2001-2011 . (. .) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

35. 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000

36. 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr NS, Kkor NSE3 NSE2 Kkor5 Kkor6 NSE1 Kkor7

37. 0-50 2010 0-50 2010 0-50 2010 0-50 2010 1 2010 1 2010 1 2010

38. 0-50 0-50 0-50 0-50 2010 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3105 1006 2006 3006 1007 2007 3107 1008 2008 3108 1009 2009 3009 1010 2010 3110 . . 2011 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3105 1006 2006 3006 1007 2007 3107 1008 2008 3108 1009 2009 3009 1010 2010 3110 . . 2007 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3105 1006 2006 3006 1007 2007 3107 1008 2008 3108 1009 2009 3009 1010 2010 3110 . .

39. . K kr . K kr 100 1830 750 500 390 3500 1000 200 6700 2000 100 13500 4000 50 27000 8000 25 55000

40. Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993 Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993 , 1 131.1 1 43.0 = L Lp R LvRq (13) 1 , 1 144.0 138.0 55.0 = L L A B p R LvR R R t (14)

41. . . - 2013 - 2013 . . - 2013 - 2013 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Q, m3/s . 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000

42. - - =100 =100 - - =100 =100 0.9 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr NS

45. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 3300 00 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 3300 00 22

46. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=30F=30 9900 00 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=30F=30 9900 00 22

47. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=6F=6 22220 0 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=6F=6 22220 0 22

48. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=F=22 170170 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=F=22 170170 22

49. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=21F=21 5500 00 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=21F=21 5500 00 22

50. , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=166F=166 1100 00 22 , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=166F=166 1100 00 22

51. , , 19611961 -- 19901990 .,., F=166F=166 1100 00 22 , , 19611961 -- 19901990 .,., F=166F=166 1100 00 22

52. 2001 -2009 . (19 2001 -2009 . (196161 2000 .) 2000 .) 2001 -2009 . (19 2001 -2009 . (196161 2000 .) 2000 .) , 2 R2 NS R2 R2 / 46300 0.74 0.91 0.95 / 30900 0.67 0.91 0.92 / - 5320 0.66 0.88 0.90 / 836 0.62 0.82 0.94 / 5210 0.63 0.85 0.95 - / 4310 0.53 0.74 0.90 / 6220 0.48 0.83 0.88 / 2170 0.71 0.84 0.89 / 21500 0.76 0.85 0.91 166100 0.87 (0.90) 0.91 0.93

53. 9.05.2002 . 9.05.2002 . 9.05.2002 . 9.05.2002 .

54. 2002 . 2002 . 2002 . 2002 .

57. , 2005 - 2009 ., , 2005 - 2009 ., F=10F=10 10100 0 22 , 2005 - 2009 ., , 2005 - 2009 ., F=10F=10 10100 0 22

58. , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=F=22 87870 0 22 , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=F=22 87870 0 22

59. , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 50500 0 22 , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 50500 0 22

60. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=100F=100 000 000 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=100F=100 000 000 22

61. . , / , 2001 - 2009 .,. , / , 2001 - 2009 ., F=121F=121 000 000 22 . , / , 2001 - 2009 .,. , / , 2001 - 2009 ., F=121F=121 000 000 22

62. --, 2001 - 2009 ., 2001 - 2009 .,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22 --, 2001 - 2009 ., 2001 - 2009 .,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22

63. --,, 19801980 - 200- 20000 ..,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22 --,, 19801980 - 200- 20000 ..,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22

64. 200 20000 -2009 .-2009 . (1980-2000)(1980-2000) 200 20000 -2009 .-2009 . (1980-2000)(1980-2000) , 2 R2 NS R2 R2 10100 0.57 0.79 0.93 2870 0.70 0.73 0.94 46500 0.82 0.87 0.91 / 100000 0.90 0.96 0.97 / 121000 0.78 0.91 0.98 184400 0.86 (0.81) 0.93 0.96

65. 25.04.2005 . 25.04.2005 . 25.04.2005 . 25.04.2005 .

66. 2002 . 2002 . 2002 . 2002 .

67. - - - -

68. VOLPOWVOLPOW VOLPOWVOLPOW

69. - - 2- 2- 2005 . 2005 . - - 2- 2- 2005 . 2005 .

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Гидрологическое моделирование крупных речных бассейнов с помощью программного комплекса ECOMAG (Ю.Г