2. 2 3. 3 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 98 99 100 101 102 : 1.
() 2. 3. 4. Nature: The PhD factory David et al. The world is
producing more PhDs than ever before. Is it time to stop? (nature,
2011) 4 5. Economist: : Why doing a PhD is often a waste of time
2000 5%20% USD 38,600 Economist(2010), The disposable academic: Why
doing a PhD is often a waste of time 5 6. 2009 OECD(2012), Key
findings of the OECD-KNOWINNO project on the careers of Doctorate
holders 6 42.5 Relative to Adv Country, our Percentage of Ph.D. is
still low 7. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 500,000
1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 25-29 20122060 7 8. 8 9. 18
266,926 199,688 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
350,000 400,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121
18 18 2012 2060 2017 2027 1830 1820 9 10. 10 11. 1991 2005100
20111,064,764 57.7%35.2% 842,868 79.2% 11 24 12. Japans annual
research output has remained largely flat over the last decade 12
Glass ceiling effect Little input of foreign talent Shrinking
younger generation Even spread of funding highly-cited since 2000,
1.8% USA 1.8% UK, 1.4 Canada, 1.4 Germany, 1.2 France 1.1 Italy,
0.7 Japan Although # Nobel Prizes 13. 24 31 61 201164% 40%
199120093271,306 16,801 16,281 16,463 15,842 15,89258.8 63.2 64.3
61.9 63.9 56 58 60 62 64 66 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000
17,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ( % ) 13 14. 14 15. ( ) From:
National Science Foundation (2013)
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/survey.cfm 15 16. 16 17. (2010~2020)
19995.4200924.63104.56 200828 199620002002 2005 2008 17 18. 18 19.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 70-79 80-89 90-99 () 0
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 70-79 80-89 90-99 19 80-89 90-99 70-79
80-89 90-99 29.2 34.1 29.3 34.5 30.2 36.1 28.1 33.4 29.4 34.8 30.8
36.6 70-79 80-89 90-99 29.5 34.2 27.9 33.2 27.8 33.6 27.9 33.5 27.5
32.1 28.1 33.1 29.2 34.9 28.7 34.2 32.1 36.5 31.7 36.7 32.6 38.6
32.4 38.2 31.0 35.5 30.7 35.8 31.4 37.4 31.1 36.6 29.4 35.3 31.0
36.7 32.1 38.1 31.6 37.6 20. / 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
4000 4500 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 0 5000 10000 15000
20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 20 21. (97-101) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 97 98 99 100 101 21 22. 18 266,926 199,688
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 90
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109
110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 18 18 2012 2060
2017 2027 1830 1820 22 23. - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
300,000 350,000 400,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102
23 35 30 24. 1605 1799 1,955 2,172 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
6,000 7,000 8,000 97 98 99 100 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 / - 24
25. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 98 99 100 100 25 100
6.46%6.3%7.9% 7.8%7.9%11.8% 26. 29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
55-59 60-64 65 101 0.4 3.8 11.2 19.3 24 19.5 13.3 7.4 1.1 92 1.6
10.5 22.4 24 18.6 11.9 6.3 3.9 0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 29 30-34
35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 101 48,064 192 1,826 5,383
9,276 11,535 9,372 6,393 3,557 529 92 43,050 689 4,520 9,643 10,332
8,007 5,123 2,712 1,679 344 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 29 30-34
35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 (92&101) (2013) 35-39
40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 4,694 4,756 1,892 - 660 - 1,614 -
1,566 92 92 9210150 3840 26 27. SCI+SSCI1 27 1. SCIThomson Reuters
Co. 2. 20122060 656SCISCI(Yt)
2(Xt-2)+2(Zt-2)(Yt=0.65Xt-2+0.15Zt-2-2000) [] 24,803 32,731 30,331
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 0 10,000 20,000
30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 25-29 28. SCI+SSCI-2 [] [] 32,731
18,350 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 0 10,000
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 25-29 28 1. SCIThomson Reuters
Co. 2. 20122060 656SCISCI(Yt)
2(Xt-2)+2(Zt-2)(Yt=0.65Xt-2+0.15Zt-2-2000) 29. - Top= 1413 1622
5001 29 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 () 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 () 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 () 30. 921015,010 5,939929 53500 101 ( ) 31 12,005(201112)
2,500 30 31. 31 32. - (ESIT) () 32 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 33. : doctoral training centre
(DTC) in UK fellowships are granted through DTC instead of research
grant. 33 34. 921 34
