Creative destruction of university

Creative Destruction of University

Jyrki J.J. Kasvi – @jyrkikasviParliament of Finland – @SuomenEduskuntaInformation Society Development Centre TIEKE – @tiekery

Future Learning – International Week – March 8th 2016

Digitalisation is revolutionising our economy, work and educationATM’s, Wikipedia, milking robots and Spotify were just a humble beginning

03.05.2023 3@jyrkikasvi

You had robot milked milk in your latte.

Image: Lely

Image: Energid Technologies

Field is a much easier environment for a robot than a road.

Image: Energid Technologies

Soon you’ll eat robot manufactured food.

03.05.2023 @jyrkikasvi 4

When Hitachi replaced its logistics foremen with an A.I., storemen work efficiency went up by 8%.

Ken Teegardin, CC BY-SA 2.0


Who needs stock brokers, when algorithms dominate securities trading?

CC BY 2.0 Rafael Matsunaga - Flickr


A.I.’s are already replacing attorney assistants in the U.S.

Are universities reactive or proactive?

Do we research and educate our past or future?

Which faculty did the first Finnish academic dissertation about computer gaming culture?

Quetion:

Economic crises come and gowhile megatrends change our World

Digitalisation explodes job productivity- Moore’s law starts to be have a

real impact- Several disruptive technologies

emerge at the same time- Robotisation automates manual

jobs and agriculture- Artificial intelligences automate

intellectual jobs- Internet of Things integrates

everything- Global pecking order will be

reorganized

Global demographics are changing- Industrial countries are growing old- Baby boomers of developing countries

are entering national job markets

Globalization networks the world- New economies become superpowers- China becomes the Centre of the World,

again

Environmental costs are rising- Prices of nonrenewables- Reducing emissions - Adapting to climate change

Challenges The opportunity


03.05.2023 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 11Image: Cyberdyne

Exosceletons replace rollators and enhance mobility

Megatrends intertwine

Megatrend competency requirements

Technology and production management competencies - Robotics, algorithms and AI’s- Algorithmic thinking- Media literacy and creation- Digital social capital- Knowledge management and

analysis - Cyber security - Privacy protection- Cross dicipline combinations

(e.g. smart buildings)- Change management - Open minded creativity

Care, gerontology- Care robotics and technologies- Usability and accessibility- Geriatry, psychiatry for the aged

Global networking- Languages, cultural literacy- Consumer oriented service design- Logistics

Environmental competencies- Energy and material efficiency- Bio and gene technologies- Community design, transport

Challenges The opportunity


During the next two years the calculating power of our computers is going to double.

We ain’t seen nothing, yet.

Digitalisation is only just beginning The steam engine invented in the late

17th century revolutinalised economies and societies in the early 19th century Education, labour market, politics, economy, family, … E.g. schools are still following an industrial paradigm E.g. our immaterial property rights system with patents and copyrights

Digital technology invented on the 1940’s is now reshaping our societies and economies even more quickly and profoundly What is the home, school, work place, labour union, … of 2080’s like? In 20 years time, one third of our current jobs are going to be taken care by robots

and artificial intelligences, the rest require new competencies and totally new professions emerge

The barriers between education, work and retirement are breaking


A kid going to schnool this year is going to be working until 2080’s.

Our kids live in the future – our education system has to be there too.

2080’s – When you go as far in history, computers looked like this.

US Army Photo

What does this mean for education?

Debating the number of religion lessons in primary schools won’t help!

Creative destruction of economy A radically new technology or a new business model (made

possible by new technology) rapidly replaces old business models and destroys business ecosystems relying on them While CD’s did not destroy the old music industry as its business model was the

same as with LP’s, mp3’s rapidly killed physical record shops, only to be replaced itself with mobile streaming services like Spotify.

ATM’s and web banks replaced physical bank offices In 1970’s Finland had some 300.000 lumberjacks, now only 3.500 harvester pilots

Markets have inertia If no-one challenges the status quo, old business may survive for a while Regulation of old business models often prohibits new ones

– 80% of radical innovations are initially illegal or outside regulation Interest groups representing old business models have strong lobbying positions When dichotomy between old business models and new technology becomes too

great, markets start circumventing regulation


Digitalisation is bitter medicine

In addition to old business models old jobs are becoming extinct

10 professions most likely to disappear in Finland1. Telemarketers and phone service providers (8 713)

2. Record keepers (326)

3. Photo product process workers (216)

4. Forwarders, customs and ship handlers (2 985)

5. Accounts and records experts (25 036)

6. Packing, bottling and labeling machine handlers (5 456)

7. Classifiers and quality controllers (excl. food and drink) (2 342)

8. Legal secretaries (885)

9. Models (70)

10. Salary accountants (4 964)

Pajarinen M. & Rouvinen P. (2014) Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment.03.05.2023 @jyrkikasvi 20

10 professions most likely to survive in Finland1. Head and ward nurses (5 666)

2. High school and primary school upper class teachers (23 280)

3. Health care managers (975)

4. Education managers (4 021)

5. Psychologists (4 548)

6. Social service managers (2 280)

7. Hearing analysts and speech therapeutists (1 170)

8. Learning method specialists (6 072)

9. Hotel managers (436)

10. Nutrition specialists (413)

Pajarinen M. & Rouvinen P. (2014) Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment.

Omenahotelli? AirBnB?


Image: Zenrobotics

Digitalisation also creates jobs and profession, for example in recycling.


Creative destruction of nations Accelerating digitalisation is

redealing the cards of world economy and influence It is not self-evident that Finland and other

old industrial nations become new digital nations Nations have to reinvent themselves in order to prevail

All sectors of economy and society are facing as painful a restructuring as media industry has gone through. New processes and business models are more important than the new technologies

(that enable the new processes and business models).

Digitalisation is the only chance Finland has As many jobs and professions have to be eliminated with automation as possible New flexible income and education paradigms are needed


03.05.2023 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 24

yhteensä.

New challengersIn 2012 African mobile payment markets were bigger than U.S. and EU combined (61.5 billion euros).

Kenya looks forward toopen a cargo drone route by 2016.

E.g. mobile payments – insurmountable in Finland

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Finland does not prevail byscrapping ATM’s and milking robots … … and distributing hand saws and milking stools to people.


Creative destruction of university Universities need to address their rapidly changing world

Competency requirements of work and life are changing Changing society requires research and analysis for guidance Students needs, skills and lives are changing

Universities are competing on a global playing field Staff and students do not settle for second best in the world MOOC’s give anyone access to world class academic education

Universities need to innovate themselves Digital technologies facilitate new pedagogy and work processes New pedagogical methods challenge old educational paradigms Sooner or later someone reinvents the university ‘business model’

and replaces our old educational ecosystem


Universities are pivotal competency creators

But those competencies must answer to students’ and society’s needs


Learning in 2030’s Walls between learning and work will break

One day in a week as a trainer, another one as a trainee

Walls between disciplines will break Innovations take place on boundaries where different people meet

Walls do not restrict learning to certain times or places University is more like a state of mind than a physical place

Walls between education and learning break Learning is a communal activity with weak hierarchies

IC technologies become mundane learning tools IC Technology is not emphasised more than doors or windows Focus on pedagogy and ways of action enabled by IC technology


E.g. Aalto university does not (yet) have a humanistic facultyE.g. the famous M.I.T. does …

The reason why Finland produces so few consumer products?

Students of the future Ritalin and other brain doping substances are coming

In Germany, every fifth student is using chemicals to improve academic performance. In field related to sports, every fourth.

Students are working, entrepreneurs, unemployed and/or retired In a rapidly changing world you cannot quit learning Precariat flex careers include several profession, i.e. several degrees or

corresponding education

Students are becoming connected cyborgs Soon we are not fiddling with smart phones

but living in augmented realities Sensors, implants, smart glasses etc. are emerging Turning cyborg’s gadgets off corresponds to amputation

Dietz P., Striegel H., Franke A., Lieb K., Simon P. & Ulrich R. (2013) Randomized Response Estimates for the 12-Month Prevalence of Cognitive-Enhancing Drug Use in University Students. Pharmacotherapy: The Journal of Human Pharmacology and Drug Therapy. Vol 33,/1, p 44-50.


Precariat life is flexible and fractured

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Working

Business

Care

”Free” time

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Not to mention sabbaticals, rehabilitation, positions of trust, volunteering, unemployment etc.


Syöpä

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Kolumnisti, blogisti

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Luennoija, kouluttaja, opettaja

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Digital university Course books are being replaced

by crowdsourced digital materials Learning materials are now cheaper than ever before

Lectures are being replaced by peer networking Some courses have regressed to email letter courses

Universities’, researchers’, teachers’ and students’ performances are going to be constantly monitored and analysed How to provide informed feedback and guidance cost-effectively?

Constant comparision with the best educators in the world MOOC’s are challenging traditional degree based education

Degree guarantees only that your competencies are outdated A degree is a permission to participate in updating education


Challenges to universities Univerisities have to earn their

autonomy Universities have to provide their students competencies required for success in

rapidly changing future job markets– E.g. Finnish teacher education has fallen badly behind digitalisation of society

Growing tension between research society needs and science for science’s sake

Is university a local service? There is no national series for universities, only world cup Are universities education politics, industrial politics or regional politics?

University no longer an academic career choice but a phase in life More staff movement between universities and rest of the society In addition to academic output, indicators and funding should address student

satisfaction, employment and entrepreneurship How to take into account merits earned outside universities in recruitment?


The three missions Scientific research

Open science challenges traditional academic practices and culture

Research cooperation with private companies with IPR and trade secrets Project funding leads to applied research with predefined results Funding and administration steal time from research and teaching

Highest education Substance competency does not guarantee pedagogic competency nor innovation Tension between researcher education and professional education Compatibility of degree contents and work life requirements

Social influence Universities have to address the growing anti-science sentiment of our society Indicators and funding do not include participation in public discussion Universities have to be determined in defend of researchers’ freedom of

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Do not worry too much

Future is going to be different than we can imagine.

30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 38

Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu?Discussion

U.S. Army Photo