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Conestoga Valley S. Conestoga Valley S. D.D.
September 2006September 2006
Enrollment ProjectionsEnrollment Projections
Conestoga Valley School District Enrollment Summary
District Projections Compared to Actual
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
Ele. Projection 1957
1985 1915 1955 2073 2078 2067 2065 2122 2140 2209
Ele. Act./last yr. Proj. 1955
1970 1954 2020 2041 2019 2151 2170 2204 2213 2244
Difference 2 15 -39 -65 32 59 -84 -105 -82 -73 -35
M.S. Projection 601 653 693 662 617 656 620 612 596 606 604
M.S. act./last yr. Proj. 626 632 679 656 620 625 664 672 678 702 701
Difference -25 21 14 6 -3 31 -44 -60 -82 -96 -97
H.S. Projection 1204
1212 1247 1225 1299 1351 1321 1356 1314 1315 1290
H.S. act./last yr. Proj. 1200
1203 1223 1258 1346 1338 1331 1363 1321 1366 1407
Difference 4 9 24 -33 -47 13 -10 -7 -7 -51 -117
Dist. Projection 3757
3850 3855 3892 3989 4085 4008 4033 4032 4061 4103
Dist. Act./last yr. Proj. 3781
3805 3856 3934 4007 3984 4146 4205 4203 4281 4352
Difference -24 45 -1 -42 -18 101 -138 -172 -171 -220 -249
Birthrates for Conestoga Valley School District
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
year
birt
hs
Growth of Homeschoolers and Cyber School in CVSD
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Cyber School
Homeschoolers
03 to 04 04 to 05 05 to 06 06 to 07 07 to 08 08 to 09
Approx. Bldg. Per.Last year projection
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Year
Approximate Residential Building Permits for CVSD
Approx. Bldg. Per.
Last year projection
Estimated Building Permits Per School Year
School Development Type Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr.
East Lamp. 03 to 04 04 to 05 05 to 06 06 to 07 07 to 08 08 to 09
Fritz High Dev. S.F. 0 10 12 10 12 11
Fritz Kolb Acres S.F. 10 10 0 0 0 0
Fritz Regents Park Condo 25 25 15 15 15 17
S-town South Ridge S.F. 50 0 0 0 0 0
Fritz Hartman St. S.F. 25 13 12 0 0 0
Fritz Rosewood Apt./TH 72 70 0 0 0 0
S-town Falls at Old Mills S.F. 0 20 10 10 10 12
S-town Hamilton at B. H. S.F. 5 6 0 5 6 0
S-town Small plans S.F. 5 5 0 0 5 0
Fritz Meadows of H. Cond/Apt. 10 10 10 10 10
S-town Ambleside Apt. 20 0
S-town Harvest Hills SF 14 0
Upper Leacock 0
Leola Country Village Condo 0 20 17 0 0
Fritz Myer Terrace S.F. 7 7 0 0 0
Leola Stauffer Court Condo 27 0
Fritz Cardinal Lane TH 12 0
Leola Creek Hill Proposal TH 0 0 0
Leola Bradford Commons TH 15 20 11
West Earl
B-town Millway Acre S.F. 0 10 15 15 0 0
B-town Eagle View Dup. 20 20 30 25 5 0
B-town Anglesea S.F. 15 50 50 15
Grand Total 219 258 177 155 133 76
Conestoga Valley School District Actual Survival Ratios (ASR) Last year's ratios
2002-
032003-
042004-
052005-
062006-
07
Avg 4yr.
Avg. 2yr.
Avg 4yr.
Avg. 2yr.
ASR Gr K 0.488 0.580 0.516 0.598 0.556 0.563 0.577 0.546 0.557
ASR Gr 1 1.217 1.152 1.120 1.100 1.099 1.118 1.100 1.147 1.110
ASR Gr 2 1.038 1.062 1.082 1.085 1.030 1.065 1.058 1.067 1.084
ASR Gr 3 1.014 1.025 1.031 1.022 1.026 1.026 1.024 1.023 1.027
ASR Gr 4 1.059 1.064 1.064 1.017 0.996 1.035 1.007 1.051 1.041
ASR Gr 5 1.047 1.017 1.050 1.000 0.993 1.015 0.997 1.029 1.025
ASR Gr 6 1.072 1.037 1.034 1.009 0.983 1.016 0.996 1.038 1.022
ASR Gr 7 1.027 1.011 1.061 1.040 0.991 1.026 1.016 1.035 1.051
ASR Gr 8 1.037 1.060 1.000 1.037 0.981 1.020 1.009 1.034 1.019
ASR Gr 9 1.069 1.045 1.003 1.097 1.141 1.072 1.119 1.054 1.050
ASR Gr 10 0.953 0.913 0.994 0.978 0.922 0.952 0.950 0.960 0.986
ASR Gr 11 1.007 0.936 1.032 1.012 0.952 0.983 0.982 0.997 1.022
ASR Gr 12 0.931 0.966 0.987 0.986 0.937 0.969 0.962 0.968 0.987
average0.996
850.989
85 0.9980.998
540.969
77 0.989 0.984 0.996 0.998
Actual Survival Ratios Actual Survival Ratios (ASR)(ASR)
exclude P.J. Ten Year Enrollment Projection for Conestoga Valley S.D.
2006-07 Grade2007-
082008-
092009-
102010-
112011-
122012-
132013-
142014-
152015-
162016-
17
263 K 294 248 287 278 295 284 301 290 309 304
288 1 289 323 273 316 306 324 312 331 319 340
272 2 305 306 342 289 334 324 343 330 350 337
313 3 279 312 313 350 296 342 332 351 338 358
283 4 315 281 314 315 352 298 344 334 353 340
304 5 282 314 280 313 314 351 297 343 333 352
296 6 303 281 313 279 312 313 350 296 342 332
2019 2067 2065 2122 2140 2209 2236 2279 2275 2344 2363
2425 Cap. 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425
316 7 301 308 285 318 283 317 318 355 301 347
309 8 319 304 311 288 321 286 320 321 358 304
625 620 612 596 606 604 603 638 676 659 651
700 Cap. 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700
348 9 346 357 340 348 322 359 320 358 359 401
366 10 331 329 339 323 331 306 341 304 340 341
296 11 359 325 323 333 317 325 300 335 299 334
328 12 285 345 312 311 320 305 312 288 322 287
1338 1321 1356 1314 1315 1290 1295 1273 1285 1320 1363
1325 Cap. 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595
3982 4008 4033 4032 4061 4103 4134 4190 4236 4323 4377
2006-07 actual +8 -8 2007-08 2008-09
B-town Leola
Fritz
S-town
Total
B-town Leola
Fritz
S-town
Total
B-town Leola
Fritz
S-town
Total
55 49 62 97 263 63 53 69 108 294 54 44 58 91 248
55 66 82 85 288 57 64 82 85 289 64 72 92 95 323
51 54 84 83 272 59 59 94 93 305 59 59 95 93 306
61 62 98 92 313 56 53 87 82 279 63 60 98 92 312
46 57 88 92 283 51 63 98 102 315 48 57 87 91 283
62 75 71 96 304 58 70 66 89 282 64 77 73 99 314
64 55 80 97 296 66 56 82 99 303 61 52 76 92 281
394 418 565 642201
9 410 418 579 660206
7 412 421 579 654206
7
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
B-town Leola
Fritz
S-town
Total
B-town Leola
Fritz
S-town
Total
B-town Leola
Fritz
S-town
Total
62 51 68 106 287 60 50 66 103 278 65 52 70 109 295
54 61 78 81 273 62 70 90 93 316 61 67 87 90 306
66 66 106 104 342 56 55 89 88 289 66 63 103 102 334
63 60 98 92 313 70 67 110 103 350 61 56 93 87 296
51 63 98 102 314 52 62 98 102 315 58 70 109 114 352
57 69 65 88 280 64 77 73 99 313 65 76 73 99 314
68 58 85 103 313 60 52 75 91 279 68 57 84 102 312
421 428 597 676212
2 425 434 601 680214
0 444 441 620 704220
9
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