Društveni uzroci klimatskih promjena rezultat su društvene organizacije života,Taj rast emisija nije rezultat individualnog ponašanja i izbora; radi se o povijesno ukorijenjenim načinima– sustavima u kojima su uspostavljeni i održavani određeni oblici društvenih praksi u interakciji s ugljikovim metabolizmom prirode. Ta interakcija omogućila je iznimno moćne navike i obrasce života koji tvore modernu kulturu i tehnologiju te određuju poželjno ponašanje suvremenog čovjeka.
Jelena Puđak
Čovjekovo ovladavanje prirodom učinkovito je postignuto putem sustava pokretljivosti nad, ispod i kroz prirodu. Sredinom dvadesetog stoljeća to postaje posebice vidljivo u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, gdje se razvija potpuno nov klaster interaktivnih sustava visokih emisija. pet posebno značajnih sustava, od kojih svaki posjeduje moćan 'konzervativni moment', odnosno ''putanju ovisnosti'' velikih socio- tehničkih sustava:
LCEI (Low Carbon Economy Index 2013.) Izvještaj: „tranzicija prema niskougljičnoj ekonomiji nije dovoljno brza”
- potrošit ćemo ugljični buđet do 2034. godine
- od 2007. emisijska efikasnost (carbon efficiency) iznosila je 0,7% godišnje
- Stupanj dekarbonizacije prošle godine: 5,1% globalno- …ove godine: 6,0% globalno- Prepoloviti emisije u sljedećih 10 godine → smanjiti 90% do
2050. → zero carbon do 2100.
Jelena Puđak
The main finding of our LCEI reports has become somewhat repetitive – current rates of decarbonisation are not nearly rapid enough to avoid serious climate risks. CEOs focus is not on the IPCC climate scenarios, but on growth, costs, resilience and reputation. What's becoming apparent is that climate change will impact each of these issues.
Fouquet (2010.): - prelazak s jednog energetskog sustava na drugi uključuje
kompleksne procese, brojne servise i sektore
- Novi izvor: nove karakteristike + jeftiniji
- Dug vremenski period!
Jelena Puđak
nije bio jedan događaj - na primjeru velike britanije u razdoblju od 1500 do 1920
Jelena Puđak
successful new energy source or technology provided the same service with superior or additional characteristics the price of the service they provided was higher . This implied that their adoption was limited to niche markets. However, because some consumers were willing to pay a premium for those better or additional characteristics, these technologies could be refined and costs could fall gradually. Once the price of the service fell sufficiently their adoption was swift
Jelena Puđak
od industrijske revolucije trebalo je prosjećno 50 god zabtranziciju u pojedinim sektorma
Bolje / dodatne karakteristike
Tranzicija prema niskougljičnom društvu:
× Cijena
? Regulatorni mehanizmi
Jelena Puđak
The fact that many transitions were driven by additional or superior characteristics is good news for move towards a low carbon economy. The greater the consumer´s and government´s willingness to pay , the more protected will be the niche market enabling low carbon energy sources
Jelena Puđak
However, it is unlikely that sufficient consumers will pay The innovation chain– will probably have to be managed by government and backed by civil society
Jelena Puđak
government will need to set mitigation targets, regulatory measures and market- . There is great uncertainty about the existence and/or maintenance of the political will
Jelena Puđak
tranzicija na niskougljičnu ekonomiju će potaknuti kompetitivnost naftnih kompanija što će usporiti tranziciju, te je malo vjerojatno da će se tranzicija u svim sektorima događati simultano, te će se nastaviti korištenje fosilnih goriva što će dodatno odgoditi znatno smanjenje emisija. -
Jelena Puđak
- uloga vlada će biti bitna
Kako nisko-ugljični razvoj može biti implementiran kao poželjan alternativni životni stil?
- Kombinacija (postojećih) elemenata na nov način -> Brian Arthur: 30 – 40 godina
- „Sinhronizacija”
- Ko-evolucija povezanih elemenata
- Moda
Jelena Puđak
‘innovation’ is different from the linear notions deployed by policy-makers. Policy-makers tend to attribute the emergence of a particular innovation, or farsighted policy-maker, or single inovator..
Jelena Puđak
new combination of existing elements of machinery, text, technology, materials and organizations. It is the combination which is key. Innovation should not be viewed as simply technological or economic or social or political but as a combination of all
Jelena Puđak
Synchronization is effected between many different agents that generate some idea or machine or system which then becomes faddish or fashionable
Jelena Puđak
system innovation involves various features: co-evolution of numerous interrelated elements; changes in both demand and supply sides; a large range of agents; long-term processes that stretch over decades; and the impossibility of innovation being generated by a single ‘policy’ or ‘object’
Jelena Puđak
objediniti instrumente provedbe i mjere, infrastrukturu, industrijsku politiku i simbolično značenje
Jelena Puđak
‘Sustainable innovation’ will require ‘consumer communities’ highlighting, advocating, developing, making fashionable and synchronizing actions and objects across diverse geographical scales and socio-economic practices.
