Environmental Change andMaize Innovation in Kenya:

Exploring pathways in and out of maize

Overview

Presentation 1 of 3

National Dissemination Workshop

Hilton Hotel, Nairobi – 22 March 2010

STEPS Kenya Partners:

ACTS – African Centre for Technology Studies

CABE – Centre for African Bio-Entrepreneurship

Tegemeo Institute, Egerton University

IDS – Institute of Development Studies, UK

SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research,

University of Sussex, UK

Welcome / Karibuni

• Background on STEPS Centre• Overview of project on Environmental Change and

Maize Innovation Pathways– Phase 1 – Characterising and analysing responses to dynamic

environmental, social and technical change in different agroecological settings

– Phase 2 – Multicriteria mapping of ‘pathways in and out of maize’

• Pathways in and out of maize• Workshop materials• Workshop programme

The STEPS Centre• Core concern: Identifying and building pathways to

Sustainability in complex, dynamic, social-ecological-technological systems

• Three themes: dynamics, governance, designs• Three domains: agriculture and food; health and disease;

water and sanitation – and their interactions (e.g. in projects on epidemics; peri-urban change…)

• An interdisciplinary approach: social and natural sciences; development studies and science and technology studies

Food Insecurity in Arid andSemi-Arid Lands (ASAL)

• Climate change and variability present new research and development challenges in Africa

• In Kenya, where 80% of the population depend on agriculture, major climatic events have included a series of prolonged and severe droughts

• In 2008–9, Kenya was hit by a severe drought, which led to widespread food crop failure

• Resumption of rains in November 2009 brought some improvements in the food security situation

Food Insecurity in ASAL Areas

• Nevertheless, some 3.8 million people remain food insecure, particularly in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL), since only limited harvests have occurred

Source: FEWS Net after ALRMP and KFSSG (Jan 2010)

Project Overview• Traced ‘innovation pathways’ in

maize and other crops, and the responses of various actors to rapid environmental, social and technical change

• Examined ways in which different actors in different institutional and social settings:

– understand and frame ‘resilience’ to growing uncertainty related to climate variability and dynamic changes

– how these assumptions frame research and policy agendas and steer solutions and resources in particular directions

We are using maize as a ‘window’ though which to analyse the dynamics of

environmental, social and technical changein ‘innovation systems’ in Kenya

Project Research Activities

1. Exploring ‘resilience’, ‘innovation’ and ‘pathways‘ and testing concepts in relation to maize in Kenya

2. Interviews with key actors engaged in work on maize R&D, adaptation to climate change, food security, etc.

3. Field and panel data comparative studies – 3 sites (low, (medium), high potential)

4. Mapping ‘pathways in and out of maize’ (based on field and panel studies and key informant interviews)

5. Analysing pathways and what facilitates/inhibits access to them based on stakeholder criteria (using Multicriteria Mapping)

6. Integration, analysis, policy engagement and dialogue

Phase I Research – 2007-9• Secondary literature review – Kenya’s

agricultural history; environmental change; resilience; maize R&D/innovation

• Key informant interviews (science institutions, MoA, farmers’ organisations, seed companies, NGOs, donors, others)

• Panel data analysis from Tegemeo Institute, production and socio-economic trends in selected districts and 3 sites

• Field studies– Sakai, Mbooni East District, Eastern

Province – ‘low potential’ zone (participants from 5 villages); seed selector interviews; feedback meeting.

– Mmbasu, Likuyani Division, Lugari District, Western Province – ‘high potential’ zone (participants from 3 sub-villages of one large village); feedback meeting.

Field and Panel Data Sites

Sakai, Mbooni East – Low Potential

Likuyani, Kakamega – High Potential

Ngecha, Nakuru – Medium Potential

Questions Emerging from Phase I

• ‘Why maize?’ understanding the ‘lock in’ to the dominant maize pathway; revealing alternative pathways

• ‘Resilience’ and scale? – ‘High potential’ – hybrids/intensification

and commercialisation/aggregate production and national food security

– ‘Low potential’ – OPVs/ diversification/ context responsiveness

• ‘Parallel universes’? – innovation systems and upward linkages from farmers to breeders and donors local knowledge, feedback on adoption/disadoption/ preferences are missing – how to build the connections?

Phase I: Maize in ASAL Areas

• Effects of environmental change is significant and well recognised – ALRMP II, project on community based adaptation to Climate Change

• Frequent droughts; more reliance on food aid recent food crisis severe

• Local maize varieties predominate due to cost (despite liberalisation) and are highly valued

• Important (but not recognised?) role of seed selectors

• In future – some farmers want drought tolerant maize varieties

• But many farmers are trying to move out of maize and into other crops – dryland staples and horticultural crops

Phase I: Maize in ASAL Areas

Main story Diversification…

Multiple pathways –in and out of maize?

But where is it leading?

Towards more resilient livelihoods?

Or are there constraints to pursuing these alternative

pathways?

Phase II Research – 2009• Aim: to explore the potential and constraints

of alternative ‘pathways in and out of maize’, particularly in ASAL areas

• Concerns about the effects of climate change present an opportunity to open up the debate about alternatives, both within maize-based agriculture and out of maize to other crops or livelihood options

• A shift from seeking to understand dynamics in maize innovation systems to engaging with food and agricultural research and policy

Phase II: Exploring Pathways in and out of Maize

• Fieldwork findings have been distilled into a set of 9 core pathways in drought-prone farming regions (e.g. Sakai):

1. Reliance on internal/external inputs including local vs. certified seed (OPVs, hybrids, etc.) and their sources (informal vs. formal channels)

2. Reliance on maize as key crop

3. Diversification out of maize other key crops (‘orphan’ dryland staple crops, horticulture)

Exploring Pathways (cont’.)• These served as a starting point for

opening up the discussion with farmers, scientists and policy makers on:

1. Range of pathways – analysing pathways in and out of maize;

2. Discussion about relevant criteria for choosing one pathway over another in such a way as to factor in the cross-scale dynamics and constraints; and

3. Critical examination of alternative visions of the future and institutional arrangements needed to support them

Multicriteria Mapping (MCM): The Interview Process

2. Develop a set of criteria

5. Reflect on outcome

1. Discuss pathways

3. Score pathways under each

criterion; optimistic & pessimistic

scores to reflect uncertainty

4. Assign weight to

each criterion

Multicriteria Mapping (MCM): The Interview Process

Typology of Pathways

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

Typology of PathwaysLow Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

1 – Alternative dryland staples for subsistence

2 – Alternative dryland staples for market

3 – local improvement of local maize

5 – Assisted seed multiplication of maize

4 – Assisted seed multiplication of alternative dryland staples

6 – Individual high-value crop commercialization

7 – Group-based high-value crop commercialization

8 – Commercial delivery of new DT maize varieties

9 – Public delivery of new DT maize varieties

See Briefing Paper 3 for details

Low Maize +Low External Input

Pathway 1 – Alternative staples for subsistence

• Farmers diversify away from maize to alternative dryland staples

• These crops are increasingly grown alongside maize on the farm and are used mainly for household consumption.

• Local varieties are grown with minimal or no external inputs

Pathway 2 – Alternative staples for market

• Farmers diversify away from maize to alternative dryland staples

• Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale of alternative crops.

• Local varieties are grown with minimal or no external inputs

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

High Maize +Low External Input

Pathway 3 – Local improvement of local maize seed• More farmers learn to select and multiply local varieties

of maize seed for local use (planting on the local farm or sale/exchange with other farmers)

• Local varieties of maize are used with minimal or no external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc)

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

Low/High Maize +Low External Input + Assisted Multiplication

Pathway 4 – Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) • Farmers are assisted in multiplying seeds of available improved

varieties of alternative dryland staples• These seeds are used for planting on the local farm or for

sale/exchange with other farmers. • Varieties are provided to farmers and assistance is given in seed

multiplication, farming techniques, etc.

Pathway 5 – Assisted seed multiplication (maize)• Farmers are assisted in multiplying seeds of available improved, open-

pollinated, drought-tolerant /drought-escaping maize.• These seeds are used for planting on the local farm or are used for

sale/exchange with other farmers. • Varieties are provided to farmers and assistance is given in seed

multiplication, farming techniques, setting up cereal banks, etc

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

Low Maize +High External Input

Pathway 6 – Individual high-value crop commercialization

• Farmers diversify into high-value/high-risk horticultural crops such as tomatoes, onions and fruit trees

• Maize is gradually replaced on the farm by these high-value crops

• Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale of high-value crops

• Crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc)

• Crops require access to a water source and/or water storage techniques

Pathway 7 – Group-based high-value crop commercialization

• Farmers form groups to diversify into high-value/high-risk horticultural crops

• Maize is gradually replaced on the farm by the high-value crops

• Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale of high-value crops

• Crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc)

• Crops require access to a water source and/or water storage techniques

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

High Maize +High External Input

Pathway 8 – Commercial delivery of new maize varieties

• Farmers purchase new hybrid maize seed varieties, such as drought-tolerant hybrid maize from commercial dealers, such as private agro-dealers and stockists

• Maize is grown on the farm for local consumption and/or sale

• These crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical

• fertilizers, etc)

Pathway 9 – Public delivery of new maize varieties

• Farmers purchase new hybrid maize seed varieties such as drought-tolerant hybrid maize from public delivery mechanisms.

• Maize is grown on the farm for local consumption and/or sale.

• These crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc.).

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

Workshop Packs• STEPS Maize Working Paper• Briefing papers:

1. Seeking resilience through diversity2. STEPS Pathways approach3. Multicriteria mapping4. Maize security ≠ food security5. Orphans and siblings – alternative dryland staples6. Living in parallel universes – bridging formal and informal

seed systems7. The Rise of Horticulture in Sakai

• Memory stick with files + additional MCM data• Video of ‘Pathways in and out of Maize’

Programme

• Overview of Environmental Change and Maize Innovation Pathways project

• Video – Pathways in and out of Maize• Key Findings from MCM Analysis• Policy Implications• Plenary Q&A• Lunch• Working Groups – (i) alternative dryland crops;

(ii) informal and formal maize systems; (iii) horticultural crops