Tnc country pathways andrasko

ForestCarbonPartnershipFacility

Ken Andrasko World Bank/Environment Dept./FCPF program

At TNC REDD eX conference, Cancun, Mexico July 13-16, 2010

www.forestcarbonpartnership.org

PathwaystoSuccessonREDD+:CountriesLearningfromEachOther

REDD+is...apolicyrocketwithbroadsupport:

Nowwhat??

TheGoodNews:•  REDD+islikelytohappen.•  Seriousdiscussionofup‐scalingandfunding.

•  WeareslowlyinvenJnghowtodoREDD+,atprojectandnaJonalscales.

TheOtherNews:

• Butweneedtoharvestlessonsfaster,&applythematlargerscales.

• Weneedtoshareexperience&rapidlydevelopavisionofwhatnaJonalREDD+lookslike.

Achieving REDD+ is a learning-by-doing endeavor for countries

CountriesStartFromDifferentPoints,andLoseForestasTheyDevelop.CanREDD+alterthispath?

North Amazon Basin

South Amazon Basin Europe

North America

North East Asia South Asia

Time

Nat

iona

l for

est c

over

Atlantic forest

South East Asia

Oceania

West Africa

Source: Zarin, 2009

ForestTransiJonCurve

Congo Basin Conservation

REDD

Enhancement

REDD+ bridge ?

4

Threemajorleversofforestbasedmi2ga2on,eachwithdifferentcharacteris2cs

ProjectCatalystslide,Copenhagen2009Reduced deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)

LARGEST

Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks & A/R

MEDIUM

Conservation & Sustainable Management of Forests

SMALLEST

3

2015

2

6

2020 1

8

2030

Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Project Catalyst analysis

Forest-based abatement potential Gt CO2e / yr

5

Only30countriescover90percentofdeforestaJonand80percentofcarbonstock.(ForestaJonismoreconcentrated)

ProjectCatalystslide,Copenhagen,2009

Source: Houghton; FAO FRA 2005; Hooijer, A. et al., PEAT-CO2, Delft Hydraulics report Q3943 (2006); Project Catalyst analysis

Brazil Indonesia Other top 20 deforestation countries

0.1

Remaining 9 with >1% of total ABG carbon stock

0.5

Next (54) high/medium deforestation countries

0

China and India

0

Rest of S. hemisphere developing countries

Total

90%

4 4 12

3V

80%

Emissions from deforestation

Gt CO2e

ABG Carbon stock

FRA 2005, % of total

...whileintegraJngREDD+intonaJonaldevelopmentplans,and

alteringlanduseincenJvesandbehavior

…forlasJngtransformaJontolow‐carbondevelopmentpaths?

6

Challenge: How to rapidly build REDD+ capacity in countries ..

FCPF:37REDDCountryExperiences.

15ReadinessPreparaJonProposals(R‐PPs).

7

Guyana: Absolute deforestation: 20 – 30,000 ha, Deforestation rate (DR: 0.1 – 0.3%)

Indonesia: 1,800,000 ha DR: 1.5 – 2%)

Panama: 48,000 ha DR: 0.8 – 1.1%)

Relative Forest cover

Time

CountriesStartFromDisJnctSituaJons:LandUseTrends,DeforestaJonDrivers,Governance

The countries on the transitional curve…

Suriname: 2000 – 3000 ha DR: 0%)

Ghana: 120,000 ha DR: 1.6 – 2.0 %)

8

Disclaimer: maps are for illustrative purposes only. World Bank has no views on national boundaries

Courtesy of Juergen Blaser, of FCPF Technical Advisory panel

ContentsofReadinessPreparaJonProposal(R‐PP):Component1:OrganizeandConsult

1a.Na2onalReadinessManagementArrangements

1b.StakeholderConsulta2onandPar2cipa2on

Component2:PreparetheREDDplusStrategy2a.AssessmentofLandUse,ForestPolicyandGovernance

2b.REDDStrategyOp2ons

2c.REDDImplementa2onFramework

2d.SocialandEnvironmentalImpacts

Component3:DevelopaReferenceScenario

Component4:DesignaMonitoringSystem4a.EmissionsandRemovals

4b.OtherBenefitsandImpacts

Component5:ScheduleandBudget

Component6:Monitoring&EvaluaJonofprogram9

REDDReadinessAcJviJes(perFCPF)

10

AssessmentofDeforestaJonDrivers+Governance

Establishreferencescenario

REDD+Strategy

andPrograms

MRVSystemDesign:

Measureandreportonchange

overJme

REDD+requiresstronglyinterrelatedprogramcomponents.Inadequatedesignofoneleadstounsustainable

orunmarketableREDD

StakeholderConsulta2ons

High quality MRV may be required for participation in global REDD markets & avoidance of REDD tonne price discounting.

•  ContentsofReadinessPrepara2onProposal(R‐PP):Component1:OrganizeandConsult











Component6:Monitoring&EvaluaJonofprogram


Examples:

•  PanamaincludedIPleadersinformulaJonofR‐PP,andinnaJonaldelegaJontoCOP14Poznan,2008

•  Ghana,Nepal,DRCofferdetailedmulJ‐stakeholderconsultaJonplans. 1412

INSIGHT: Transparent early consultations with major stakeholders offers promise of REDD+ becoming more inclusive than previous land use dialogues.

•  Consultations will require new openness from governments and stakeholders… and need to broaden over time.

InclusiveconsultaJonsonREDD+arecriJcalearlyneedtoforgeacommonvisiononREDD+

•  IssueofREDDsystemdesigncaninheritpre‐exisJngfailures,unresolvedgovernance,landtenureuncertainty.

•  Or,befreshstart.

ParJcipaJoninREDDDesignCanChallengeTradiJonalRelaJonshipsBetweenGovernments&Stakeholders

•  MapsoeenhavebeendrawninGeorgetown,withminimalconsultaJonorfieldwork

Guyana’slandtenure:State(86%ofareaesJmated);Amerindianlands;private.MiningclaimsoverlapAmerindianreservaJons.

Consultations in Preparation and Refinement of DRC’s R-PP: Seeking a Consensual Plan

Since April 2009, National REDD

Coordination consulted > 700 people.

Since January 2010, >100 people refined R-PP via

4 consultation workshops.

R-PP validation workshop

had 80 participants












16


National Baseline, Accounting &

monitoring

Inter-regional strategy and

policies

REGION 1: baseline & policies



ISSUESTORESOLVE:

• Harmonizingreferencescenarios&MRVbetween:

• NaJonalscale,• SubnaJonalregions,• REDDprojects.

• UseregistryofacJviJes?

• WhoownsemissionsreducJons?

• Howrevenueswouldbeshared?

• HowacJviJesareregulated? Adapted from: Andrea Cattaneo, Woods Hole Research Center

LinkingSubnaJonalPilotProjectstoNaJonalREDD:e.g.,Indonesia(e.g.,Berau),DRC,Brazil,Mexico

Examples:

•  DRCCongo’sREDDunitusingitsR‐PPtocoordinateacrossministries,donors,andFCPFandUN‐REDDprograms.

•  GuyanadevelopingLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategyledbyitsPresident.18

Requires integrated vision of how REDD+ fits into emerging national, low-carbon development strategy.

•  Mainstreaming REDD+ may require putting REDD at the center of national development policy

•  . . . elevated to highest levels of government.

REDD+requiresunprecedentednaJonalplanningacrosssectors.

CoordinaJngNaJonalREDDAcJviJes:DemocraJcRepublicofCongoexample

REDD Activities and Funding Coordinated via Single Country

Readiness Preparation Proposal: (R-PP)

ManagementofReadiness

REDDImplementaJonFramework

REDDStrategyOpJons

ReferenceScenario

NaJonalMonitoringSystem

Harmonized Components of Readiness

(UN-REDD / FFCPF) In Country’s FCPF R-PP:

DRC’snaJonalprocessand

workplan

UN‐REDD

FCPF

OtherDonors

Total Area: 147,181 Sq. Km. Population: 24 M

NEPAL

WhatREDDStrategyMakesSenseforEachRegion&ItsDeforestaJonDrivers&GovernanceStatus??

Himalaya Mountains: Exploitation for fuelwood

Terai Lowland Forest: Larger-scale agriculture; immigration; recent conflict

Siliwak and Middle Hills: Community forestry innovation

SubsistenceAgriculture

CommercialAgriculture(extensive)

IrrigatedAgriculture

FuelwoodforFossilFuel

IntensifiedAgriculture

AfforestaJon

Sca

le o

f GH

G

Miti

gatio

n

Low Feasibility of REDD Option

otherother

Linking REDD to Low Carbon Development Strategy: Finding Feasible Options (DRC example)

From: “Democratic Republic of Congo’s REDD+ Potential,” December 2009

High

High

Guyana’sLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy:UsingREDDtoCreateAlternaJvestoDeforestaJon












23


24

REDDAcJviJesSelectedVaryinTiming,&AffectReferenceCase&MRVDesign.DegradaJonisMoreComplex

ReferenceCase:GlobalRequirements&GuidanceLikelyDifferentfromNaJonal&ProjectNeeds.HarmonizaJonisChallenging.

National Implementation

Reference Case ??: - To implement

global case

Subna;onalReferenceCase

GlobalTargetReference

Case?:‐ Vianego2a2ons?‐ ‐viaanaly2cmethod?

Issues:

-  National scale probably key for REDD and FCPF

-  Policy discussion focusing on global scale to date

-  How resolve relation between global, national & project??

Subna;onalReference

Case

RegionalReferenceCase:4‐5countries

Global Objective Reference Case ??

(independent, via remote sensing?)

Brazil:AmazonFund.ExampleofOneApproachforaHistoricReferenceScenarioUsingAnnual+DefaultData.

Carbon density data limited, so use conservative 100tC/ha as default.

≅  47 billions of tons of Carbon

≅  172.3 billions of tons of CO2e

Subnational Reference Case, Driven by Development Plans: Brazilian Amazon Baseline GHG emissions 2007-2050

225 tC/ha

Carbon Stock

0 tC/ha Saatchi et al., 2007

Amazon Basin Business as Usual Deforestation Scenario = 2.6 million km2 deforested by 2050

Soares-Filho et al. 2006

Issues: -  How find project in national refer. case? -  Use project or large-scale resolution & data?

Custo de oportunidade

deforested

Cerrado biome Paved road

Unpaved road

US$ 3-0 per ton

US$ 0 per ton

US$ 8-13 per ton

US$ 3-8 per ton

> US$ 13 per ton

SimAmazonia Model Results: Opportunity Cost of Land for Soy, Logging, Cattle (Soares-Filho et al. 2006)

Cerrado

Amazônia

Pantanal

Pampa

Mata Atlântica

Caatinga

ExpandingSimAmazoniaModeltoAllofBrazil: Low Carbon Country Case Study, World Bank et al.

1x1 km = 4500x4500 = 20 M cells

772

Scenarios of carbon emissions from expanding crops for biofuels

772 units

Source: Britaldo Soares Filho

EvolvingMexicoMRV:Combines22,000‐plotforestinventory+highresoluJonremotesensing+naJonalecologicalprocessmodel

•  Forest Inventory

•  Landsat

•  AVHRR

•  MODIS

•  SPOT

CCIGuyanaProposal:Transparent,NaJonallySustainable,AndInternaJonallyAcceptableMRVSystem

ReporJngNaJonalAccounts

TomeetinternaJonalobligaJonsunderUNFCCC

(EmissionsEsJmatesandProjecJons)&

toenterCarbonMarkets

NaJonalMeasurementSystemforForestCarbon

OutputsModelsData

CollecJon

SatelliteData

GroundData

ClimateData

ForestClassificaJon

LandManagementInformaJon

ManagementPracJces

Algorithms

DataFusion

RasterEnvironment

SpaJalAnalysis

Emissions

Removals

MappingandVisuals

NaJonalEconomicDevelopment

StrategyPolicy

ReporJng

ReporJng:

Components of RED Readiness

FCPF 2010 Estimates in 9 National R-PPs

(‘000)

FCPF 2008 Estimate

(Average, in ‘000)

Eliasch Estimate: High

(in ‘000)

REDD management and consultations

$3,530 $525 + 365 $2,000

Develop REDD strategy $1,920 $450 $1,000

Environmental and social impacts assessment of REDD strategy

$1,440 $50 -

REDD implementation framework

$1,200 $341 $1,500

Develop reference scenario $2,020 $ 516 $4,000 Design REDD MRV system $6,960 $1,008 -

TOTAL (without annual MRV costs)

$17,260 $3,250 $8,500

Budget:EsJmatedCostofREDD+,EarlyEsJmates(Sathaye,Andraskoetal.,inpress)

Source: TNC, 2010 (average of 9 submitted country Readiness Preparation Proposals, on www.forestcarbonpartners.org); FCPF, 2008; Eliasch, 2008 as summarized in FCPF, 2008.

•  REDD Opportunities Vary by Opportunity Cost (OC) of Land, Carbon Density, and Threat of Deforestation

•  Can we identify high priority interventions, with low barriers to implementation?

•  What are priority governance concerns with these targeted lands and REDD strategies?

• What are the capacity building and investment needs?

• What are the potential risks, environmental and social, and economic?

Gibbs, H. and S. Brown. 2007. Geographical Distribution of Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests: A Database. ORNL/CDIAC.

Deforestation Threat & C Density Class, for East Kalimantan (Gibbs and Brown, 2007)

REDDTargeJng&ModelingTask:OverlayingDynamicLandUse,Benefits,&GovernanceIssues

•  ProvidebestpracJcesforstakeholderconsultaJonandparJcipaJon

•  Encouragecross‐sectoralnaJonalREDDmanagementstructure.

•  ShareearlymethodsforreferencescenariosekngforforestcoverchangeoverJme:historicandfutureforecasJng

•  SharedesignforMRV(measurement,reporJngandverificaJon)ofREDD+withinLCDScontext;–  Helpencouragehigh‐quality,internaJonallyconsistentMRV–  Helpcountriesproducecompliance‐gradeREDD+carbonassets.

•  NestREDD+withinabroadervisionofnaJonaldevelopment,reachedviaconsensusprocess–insteadofcarboncowboydeals.

•  ProvideglobalplamormforexperimentaJon,pilotmethodsdevelopment,andcarbonfinancepilots–leadingtoconfidenceinREDD+overJme.

HowCanFCPFandREDD+ContributetoLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategies?

35

FCPFprovidesausefulplamormforsharingknowledgeandexperience

Bonom‐line:MajornewREDD+ideasandpilotsareemergingfromthecountries–nottop‐down.

FCPFexample:•  BrazilissharingAmazonFundexperiencewith

FCPFcountries,inc.Indonesia&DRC.

•  Vietnam+MekongBasincountries,andCongoBasincountries,exploringregionalcooperaJononreferencescenarios+MRV.

•  IndonesiaissuednaJonalregulaJonsmanagingREDDprocess,followedbyDRCandothers.

36

Lesson:REDDcountriesarelearningbydoingandsharing.Butneed:

•  Technicalassistancetobuildin‐countrycapacitytoplanandimplementREDD+acJviJes

•  Clearer internaJonalpolicyandmethodsguidance,toscaleupREDD+Readiness.

Summary:FCPFpartnershipexperimentisdemonstraJngthepoweroftransparentsharingofexperience–butneedsacceleraJon

TheRoadAheadShallBeInteresJng…

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Tnc country pathways andrasko