"Newcastle University and the pursuit of sustainability", by Professor Paul Younger

Convocation Lecture 2010

19th June 2010 1

Enough ... ... For All ...

... Forever!

Professor Paul L Younger FREng, DLDirector

Newcastle Institute for Research on Sustainability

Newcastle University and the Pursuit of Sustainability


19th June 2010 2

Overview

• Sustainability:– What definition do we work to?

– What are its (global) implications?

– “Think global, act local”: what does all of this mean for NewcastleGateshead?

– What can Newcastle University contribute?

– Introducing …



19th June 2010 3

Sustainability

• Definitions:– more than 200 have been proposed …– most quoted is the 1987 ‘Brundtland’ definition:

• "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”

• Sometimes summarised: “Leave a better world for future generations”

• Criticisms: anthropocentric; fails to explicitly mention the environment and natural resources


19th June 2010 4

... not to be confused with ...• ‘Sustained economic growth’,

– beloved of politicians, this term enshrines a deliberately naïve disregard for ecological and social limits to economic growth

– Logically, these limits will ultimately mean that the economy must reach a dynamic equilibrium

– The right questions are:

• How soon that will be?

• What right do we have to hasten its advent by profligate use of resources?

– These aren’t easy to answer, so it often feels easier just to try to behave in a vaguely good way and hope for the best …


19th June 2010 5

Sustainability: the ‘Three Pillars’ model

SUSTAINABILITY

(with apologies to the Temple of Octavia, Corinth)

ENV

IRO

N-

MEN

TAL


19th June 2010 6

“Triple Bottom Line Accounting”


19th June 2010 7

The Model of Three Spheres


19th June 2010 8

… in reality the spheres are concentric …

ECONOMY

SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT


19th June 2010 9

Sustainability in four words:

“Enough, for all, forever”

• “enough” - implies economic sufficiency (but not excess …)

• “for all”- Must be understood to evoke both social justice and the

needs of non-human beings

• “forever” - signals respect for finite resource limits, and the pursuit of

inter-generational justice


19th June 2010 10

“Enough, for all ...” - ?


19th June 2010 11

• ‘The Spirit Level’ (2009)• Thoroughly substantiated

socio-economic study which shows that, above a certain level of prosperity, almost every indicator of human wellbeing correlates with how equal a society is, rather than how wealthy it is overall

• Societies with a big gap between rich and poor are worse for everyone - including the affluent

How much does inequality matter?


19th June 2010 12


19th June 2010 13


19th June 2010 14


19th June 2010 15

“Seek sufficient, seek what will do. But don’t hanker after more: do that and you’ll end up bloated,

not relieved; weighed-down instead of unburdened”.

Saint Augustine of Hippo


19th June 2010 16

Limits to Growth

• System dynamics model of the interaction of the economy with natural resources and population growth

• First edition (1972) provoked huge controversy

• Subsequent updates at 20 and 30 years: thoroughly vindicated original analysis

• Demonstrates we have been living beyond the planet’s means for more than 30 years

Enough, for all, forever?


19th June 2010 17

“... for all, forever” - ?

Ecological footprint: the equivalent area of land

needed to provide all the resources and absorb all the waste generated by a given

socio-economic unit


19th June 2010 18

The world has enough for everyone’s need but not enough for everyone’s greed

“Enough, for all ...”

Mohandas K. (Mahatma) Ghandi

1869 - 1948


19th June 2010 19

... not enough for everyone’s greed

• The whole world could live sustainably at about the level of prosperity of low/middle income EU countries - but not at the level of wasteful consumer societies


19th June 2010 20

Isn’t it just about population?


19th June 2010 21

Isn’t it just about population?• On current projections, the world’s population is

expected to grow from 6.7 Bn today to around 9 Bn by about 2050, then begin to stabilise to about 10.5 Bn

• It is now clear that poverty is the principal driver of high rates of population growth: – if we tackle poverty, we can expect population to stabilise

– in affluent societies population growth slows, or even reverses

• If we don’t tackle poverty, disease and starvation will be the cruel, laissez-faire instruments of population limitation


19th June 2010 22

Population growth rates


19th June 2010 23

Carbon Emissions


19th June 2010 24

Carbon conundrumsDear Sir, I write to express my outrage at the proposal for a second runway at the airport. You are a climate vandal, and you

Dear Sir, I write to express my outrage at the proposal for a second runway at the airport. You are a climate vandal, and you




19th June 2010 25

Carbon conundrums• Anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases

are modifying our planet’s homeostatic processes

• Geological history demonstrates that sudden increases in atmospheric CO2 can cause severe climatic instability

• Thus we must decarbonise our energy supply rapidly

• Is nuclear enough? Limited uranium ore reserves limit the scope for nuclear power beyond about 50 years – and don’t forget that none of the earlier issues over radioactive waste disposal have yet been resolved ...

• Demand reduction and renewables deployment must proceed as rapidly as possible – but will they be enough?


19th June 2010 26

Renewables to the rescue?• If all of the world’s future

population is to enjoy as much access to energy as residents of the wealthy countries today, even maximum deployment of all available renewable energy resources will not be able to meet demand

• We may get to a renewable future, but we won’t get there without:– Interim substantial – but more

responsible – use of fossil fuels– Serious changes in our wasteful

lifestyles in consumer societies


19th June 2010 27

Plan for 100% renewable power for Europe ....


19th June 2010 28

The saviour? Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)


19th June 2010 29

CSP: an inconvenient truth

11 MW(Capacity factor: 50%)

Power for about 6,000 homes

2400 MW(Capacity factor: 75%)

Power for about 2 million homes

... and don’t forget about the non-renewable resources required to build vast numbers of

renewable energy power plants ...


19th June 2010 30

Responsible use of fossil fuels: “Hubbert’s Peak” and beyond

• Even if you didn’t believe in climate change, we’d still need to decarbonise our economy, because global peak oil production will be reached some time between 2017 and 2021• Global peak natural gas will follow a decade or two later (shale gas might prolong the tail (at a cost)• Only coal has longer potential availability (~ 600 years), but:

- Amount available for conventional mining is far less than this- it is the worst fossil fuel for CO2 emissions, unless tightly coupled to CCS


19th June 2010 31

Responsible use of fossil fuelse.g. Underground coal gasification coupled to carbon capture and storage


19th June 2010 32

What about depletion of other natural resources?

• While many people obsess on the lifespan of non-renewable energy sources, little attention is paid to other crucial commodities, which are crucial to large-scale production of food and modern technologies

• Cost will be the mediator as primary mineral resources reach ever lower grades

• Eventually we must reach a 100% recycled economy for many commodities

• In the meantime, if it can’t be grown it must be mined ….


19th June 2010 33

The periodic table

Courtesy of Ian Shott FREngPresident IChemE


19th June 2010 34

The periodic table – endangered species?

Courtesy of Ian Shott FREngPresident IChemE


19th June 2010 35

Depletion of natural resources: e.g. copper

Copper ‘ore grade’: % by weight of copper in primary ores

Tonnes of waste rock handled per tonne of copper produced

versus ore grade (%)


19th June 2010 36

Depletion of natural resources: some rough estimates Source: New Scientist, vol. 194,

Issue 2605, 26 May 2007, Pages 34-41


19th June 2010 37

Biodiversity• ‘Brundtland’ sustainability does not go beyond the

pious wish that: “... the Earth’s endowment of species and natural

ecosystems will soon be seen as assets to be conserved and managed for the benefit of all

humanity ...”

• Meanwhile, “we are destroying the book of life before we have even read it” Prof Sir Martin Rees

President of the Royal Society (Reith Lectures 2010)


19th June 2010 38

Biodiversity• About 80% of the world’s original forest has been cleared,

damaged or fragmented

• Current rate of species extinction is at least 1,000 times higher than the natural rate would be

• A sample of 23 common farmland birds and 24 common woodland birds monitored in 18 European countries show a decline in numbers by 71 percent between 1980 and 2002.

• Currently, every fourth mammal species ( 24%) and every eighth bird species (12%) face high risks of extinction

Source: European Commission / IUCN


19th June 2010 39

Even the deep oceans are no refuge ...

Global wild fish catches peaked in the mid-1990s

Global population of blue-fin tuna ...


19th June 2010 40

Ecological Economics• How can we value biodiversity?• It is unreasonable to reduce species diversity and ‘non-

use’ values of habitats to equivalent monetary values• We need new ways of evaluating human use of natural

habitats; possible approaches include:– Ecological footprint– Human Appropriation of Primary Production– Carrying capacity– Energy return on energy input– Material input per unit service


19th June 2010 41

We will achieve sustainability ...

The question is: do we want to get there by design or by disaster?

At the moment, all indicators would say that we are not on track to get there by design ...

200?


19th June 2010 42

“Better to light a candle than to curse the darkness”

Eleanor Roosevelt


19th June 2010 43

“Think Global, Act Local”

• What does all this mean for NewcastleGateshead?

• Can efforts at the local scale make any contribution to the global challenges?


19th June 2010 44

Newcastle – the Most Sustainable Large City in the UK!

• ‘Forum for the Future’ league tables, 2009

• Compares the performance of the UK’s twenty largest cities


19th June 2010 45

NewcastleGateshead today• Biodiversity: excellent

track record with bird-life (e.g. Kittiwakes; red kites; skylarks on Town Moor)

• Transport: Metro system, integration with buses


19th June 2010 46

NewcastleGateshead tomorrow• 1Plan sets forth a 20-year vision for

NewcastleGateshead to become a great northern European city

• 1Plan calls for four Big Moves:

1. Grow knowledge economy

2. Develop skills and attract talent

3. Transform the urban core

4. Achieve sustainable growth through a programme of ‘sustainable urbanism'

• University at the heart of the 1Plan strategy

NewcastleGateshead 1PlanEconomic & Spatial Strategy


19th June 2010 47

NewcastleGateshead tomorrow

• National pioneer of electric vehicle uptake

• Hub for North Sea offshore wind: not just assembly; manufacture

• Redevelopment of the city on sustainability principles: Science City

In the vanguard of

major exportable

energy technologies


19th June 2010 48

Science City

• A strategic partnership between Newcastle City Council, One North East and Newcastle University

• Addressing the future development of Newcastle as a City of Science, capitalising on world-class scientific expertise on three themes: 1. Stem Cells and Regenerative Medicine2. Ageing and Health3. Sustainability


19th June 2010 49

Three themes, three places

Stem Cells and Regenerative

Medicine

Ageing and Health

Campus for Ageing & Vitality, General

Hospital site

SustainabilityScience Central


19th June 2010 50

Science Central – current plan


19th June 2010 51

Science Central – sustainabilityEfficient Use of Energy


19th June 2010 52

Science Central – sustainabilityLocal Environmental Quality


19th June 2010 53

Science Central – sustainabilityPossible use of deep geothermal energy from > 2km below site

Natural Resources


19th June 2010 54

The role ofNewcastle University

• ‘Vision 2021’: commitment to be a world-class civic university: this means working in long-term, strategic partnership with local government and civil society


19th June 2010 55

The contribution ofNewcastle University

• Societal Challenge Themes– Key element of Vision 2021– Attuning our present and future research efforts

to the demand side– Three in total, one led by each of the Faculties,

but each involving the others– Theme 1: Ageing and Health – launched 2009-10– Theme 2: Sustainability – will launch 2010-11– Theme 3 (in formulation): will launch 2011-2012


19th June 2010 56

What can Newcastle University contribute?

• Major engineering expertise already applied extensively to sustainability issues

• Substantial social science expertise on issues of governance (including policy and planning) and justice (social and environmental)

• Specialist expertise in environmental health, not least in pollutant impacts


19th June 2010 57

Sir Joseph Swan Centre for

Energy Research

Bio-energyNovel

Geo-energy

Energy conversion, storage & distribution

Sustainability research - Areas of excellence at Newcastle University


19th June 2010 58

Urban environments


Modelling, visualisation and

support for decision-making

to achieve resilient cities

Climate change impacts on engineering soils and structures

Urban Integrated Assessment Facility

Thames Estuary 2100


19th June 2010 59


Making transport:

Greener

Safe and secure

Seamless and inclusive

IntelligentLightweight vehicles and

vessels

Lithium ion capacitor

Fuel Cell

Testing Rig

Electric Vehicles


19th June 2010 60

Water, wastewater and pollution remediation


Mine water remediation using ecologically-integrated methods

Identifying generic, unifying concepts for wastewater treatment design

pH Changes in Pilot SAAPS "Milluni·"

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

06.30

.00

07.07

.00

07.10

.00

07.19

.00

07.21

.00

07.27

.00

08.01

.00

08.03

.00

08.10

.00

08.17

.00

08.21

.00

08.22

.00

08.24

.00

08.30

.00

09.06

.00

09.12

.00

09.18

.00

09.22

.00

03.11

.00

07.11

.00

10.11

.00

14.11

.00

21.11

.00

28.11

.00

Dates of sampling

pH v

alue

s

InletOutlet

http://www.ceg.ncl.ac.uk/envengfuture�


19th June 2010 61

Clean Industrial Processes and Products


Biopharmaceutical Bioprocessing Technology Centre

Advanced Catalysis, process intensification and production efficiency

http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceam/about/facilities/labs.htm�


19th June 2010 62

Research Themes:• Environmental

Systems• Ocean & Coastal

Resources• Governance,

Management & Planning

• Technology

marineNewcastle



19th June 2010 63

Sustainability research - Areas of excellence at Newcastle UniversityFood Security and Rural Environments

Logical Framework

Food Security

YieldQualitySafety

THEME 1Sustainable food production

systemsTHEME 2

Socio-economic,ethical andmulticriteriaassessment

THEME 4EnvironmentalImpacts/LCA

THEME 3Food-

quality,safety andnutritional

assessment

THEME 5Molecular

Agriculture

Molecular Breedingfor enhancedresistance to insect pests and nutrient use efficiency

Conventionalmanagement

Organicmanagement


19th June 2010 64

Natural Environment


• Agri-Environment • Applied & EnvironmentalMicrobiology

• Biodiversity and Conservation • Carbon and nutrient cycles• Rapid global change throughgeological time

• Microbial interactions with theEarth System

• Microbial biomarkers in modernand ancient systems


19th June 2010 65

Climate change impacts assessment


UK Climate Programme data delivery

Flood risk mapping

Newcastle City Carbon Routemap


19th June 2010 66

Health and Environment


1. Lead in milk teeth Teesside

5. Maternal mobility

4. Air pollution and cardiac anomalies6. Air pollution and birth outcomes Newcastle 1961-2003

3. Health in informal settlements, Aleppo 2.Dioxin pattern in soil and

fish, Gateshead, Tyne

Themes: •Characterising pollutant exposure on a range of scales in space and time•Linking environmental exposures to health outcomes•Combined studies of social and environmental determinants of health•Perception and communication of environmental health risk


19th June 2010 67

Justice and Governance



19th June 2010 68

Experiencing the rainforest in Newcastle – the

University’s Botanical

Gardens at Moorbank

Sustaining communities and exploring inter-generational solidarity Whitehaven, Cumbria

What is RCE North East? A regional network of educational organisations and individuals, at all levels of education from pre-school to post-retirementWhat’s it for? To join up the thinking on what we mean by Education for Sustainable Development (EfSD), and how it can be implemented.What is it doing? Partnership working to promote Transformative Education, which means “learning about change, learning for change, learning through change”. RCE NE has a particular focus on addressing low educational aspiration amongst too many of our region's young people - reaching out to the NEET generation.

RCE North East has been acknowledged by the United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies as one of a global network of RCEs (currently 70). It places regional efforts in EfSD on the world stage.http://www.rcenortheast.eu/

http://www.rcenortheast.eu/�


19th June 2010 69


• Vision:

To achieve recognition for Newcastle University as one of Europe’s leading centres of expertise in sustainability science, engineering and governance.

• How?:

– Further grow internationally-leading research in our areas of focus, prioritising collaborative working across discipline boundaries

– Achieve permanent, two-way engagement with strategic partners in industry, government and civil society, by pursuit of mutual objectives

– Position the University as an authority on the great challenges of sustainability, ensuring our key messages reach target audiences

– Secure the financial means for all of this from external sources

Orchestrating the Newcastle University contribution


19th June 2010 70

• Distinctiveness: most other sustainability institutes focus on stating the problem, often in dishearteningly apocalyptic language; the Newcastle Institute will focus on the pursuit of solutions, developing an economy of hope

• Engineering-led, socio-economically guided: the Institute will be convened by the Faculty of Science Agriculture and Engineering, drawing on major sectoral strengths, but its strategy will be firmly founded on insights from the social sciences, espousing a genuine commitment to justice (social, inter-generational and environmental)

• Supporting our community: As the Newcastle Institute, we pledge to make a major contribution to securing the status of NewcastleGateshead as one of the UK’s most sustainable cities, through working in close partnership with the local authorities and other civic partners. We aim to place our expertise and enabling technologies at the service of participatory democratic approaches to enhancing the sustainability of the urban area, and its interactions with the rural North

• Opinion-leading: learning from this urban laboratory, and from our worldwide research experience, we will confidently raise our profile nationally and globally, pro-actively seeking to establish Newcastle as an authoritative, public source of insight and guidance on the many sustainability issues addressed by our research base



19th June 2010 71

Institute concept ...


19th June 2010 72

A time and place ...Convocation Lecture 2010

19th June 2010 46

Science Central – current plan


19th June 2010 73

Summary• Sustainability means ensuring “enough, for all, forever”

• This is a major societal challenge, worldwide; it not only demands new technologies. but also fundamental changes to our wasteful lifestyles in consumer societies

• We have the opportunity to consolidate the position of NewcastleGateshead as one of the UK’s most sustainable cities – a global exemplar of just how far ‘retro-fitting’ sustainability can be taken in an old industrial city. Science Central will be the springboard for this initiative.

• Newcastle University is marshalling its contributions to this pursuit by the creation of the Newcastle Institute for Research on Sustainability

• Ambition: Within a decade, the Institute will be recognised as one of Europe’s leading centres of expertise in the sustainability science, engineering and governance


19th June 2010 74

Thank you

www.ncl.ac.uk/sustainability


[email protected]

http://www.ncl.ac.uk/sustainability�

mailto:[email protected]�