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Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e
resilienzaFrancesco Petrini
Co-founder and Director
StroNGER S.r.l., Via Giacomo Peroni 442-444, Tecnopolo Tiburtino, 00131 Rome (ITALY)
Associate Researcher,
Sapienza – University of Rome,Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering
e-mail: [email protected] , [email protected]
web: http://www.stronger2012.com
in ingegneria dei materiali, la resilienza è la capacità di un materiale di resistere a forze impulsive senza spezzarsi e ripristinando lo stato iniziale
in informatica, la resilienza è la capacità di un sistema di adattarsi alle condizioni d'uso e di resistere all'usura in modo da garantire la disponibilità dei servizi erogati
in psicologia, la resilienza è la capacità di far fronte agli eventi traumatici, di riorganizzare positivamente la propria vita dinanzi alle difficoltà
In biologia la resilienza è la capacità di un organismo di autoripararsi dopo un danno e di adattarsi vivere in ambienti soggetti a variazioni molto brusche e imprevedibili. Quando specie animali e vegetali presentano alti tassi di resilienza vengono definite specie a strategia r
In generale quindi, e per un ambiente urbano, la resilienza è definita come la capacitàdella comunità (o un sistema ecologico) nei suoi componenti primari, di ritornare alsuo stato iniziale, dopo essere stata sottoposta a una perturbazione o shock che l’haallontanata da quello stato; tali alterazioni possono essere causate sia da eventinaturali (es. terremoto), sia da attività antropiche e terroristiche.
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Definizione di urban resilience
Complexity: Systems not components
IFRASTRUCTUREENGINEERING
ECOLOGY
PSYCOLOGY
SOCIOLOGY
ECONOMY
NETWORK
COMPLEXITY
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Complexity (I), due to multidisciplinarity, multidimensionality
Complexity (II): different interacting urban elements that contribute to a complex system behavior
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
http://socialearth.org/100-resilient-cities-centennial-challenge-a-100-million-effort-to-build-urban-resilience-around-the-world
a. theory and methods
system approach
The general framework for the
design of complex structures:
a) definition of the structural
domain
b) definition of the design
environment
c) assessment of the
performances
d) alignment of expert
judgments
e) negotiation and reframing
Bontempi, F. (2008) The structural analysis of the Messina Strait Bridge. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Bridge
Maintenance, Safety and Management. Seoul, Korea, July 13-17.
Complexity (III): a system interacting with the environment
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
About complexity: natural systems and Hierarchybuilt environment nature
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Models for resilienceReal urban area
Categorization
Synthesis
Grouping
Hierarchy
Sub system
Layering
Facility
Building 2
Facility 1
Building 4
Structure
Building 3
Building1
Facility 2
Layers extraction
Working model
Sara Meerow and Joshua P. Newell Resilience and Complexity A Bibliometric Review and Prospects for Industrial Ecology
Models for resilience (II)
----- = ordinary node
= critical (active) node in
case of emergency-----
= transportation link (e.g.
road)
= pipelines
Facility
Building 2
Facility 1
Building 4
Structure
Building 3
Building1
Facility 2
Urban area (communication and water services)
C. Gómez a,⇑, M. Sánchez-Silva a, L. Dueñas-Osorio . An applied complex systems framework for risk-based decision-making in
infrastructure engineering,Structural Safety Volume 50, September 2014, Pages 66–77
Complexity of LP-HC events: Multi-hazard & Black swan
----- = ordinary node
= critical (active) node in
case of emergency-----
= ordinary principal link
(e.g. road)
= ordinary alternative link (e.g.
underground)
= critical principal link
= critical alternative linkSCHOOL
HOSPIT
AL
HOUSE
AGGRGATE
SPORT
ARENA
SHOPPING
CENTER
EMBASSY
OFFICE
UNIV.
CAMPUS
HOUSE
AGGRGATE
FIRE
DEPT
Urban development
PLANT
Representation of an urban area as a network of nodes and links
- Nodes: relevant premises for urban activities, strategic and crowded buildings
- Links: interconnections between them, transport and supply systems
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Multiple hazard scenarios (I)
SCHOOL
HOSPITAL
HOUSE AGGRGATE
MALL
SHOPPING CENTER
EMBASSY
OFFICE
HOUSE AGGRGATE
HOUSE AGGRGATE
FIRE DEPARTMENT
PLANT
EXAMPLE: CHAIN HAZARD
Tsunami after an Earthquake = flood action
= earthquake action
= blast action
= fire action
Actions due to different hazards
= chain actions
= concurrent actions
Actions combination (multiple)
accidental actions & multiple hazards
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Multiple hazard scenarios (I)
Japan earthquake, 2011
Multiple hazards (fire after earthquake)
Indirect/disproportionate consequence
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Example of a multi-hazard catastrophic event
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (1st ed.). London: Penguin. p. 400. ISBN 1-
84614045-5.
A Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes.
1. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations,
because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
Rarity -The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'.
Extreme “impact” - the event has a major effect.
3. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct
explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and
predictable.
Retrospective (though not prospective) predictability - After the first
recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could
have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but
unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the
personal perception by individuals.
Black Swans
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
http://uk.businessinsider.com/paris-attackers-isis-territory-trained-2015-11?r=US&IR=T
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Example of a black swan event
----- = ordinary node
= critical (active) node
in case of emergency-----
= transportation link
(e.g. road)
= pipelines
Facility
Building 2
Facility
1
Building 4
Structure
Building 3
Building1
Facility 2
Effects of a black-swan
Facility
Facility
1
Building 4
Structure
Building 3
Building1
Facility 2
Building
2
Facility
Facility
1
Building 4
Structure
Building 3
Building1
Facility 2
Building
2
Effect of LP-HC events on system behavior
Quantification of resilience
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
MCEER (Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research), (2006). “MCEER’s Resilience Framework”. Available at
http://mceer.buffalo.edu/research/resilience/Resilience_10-24-06.pdf
MCEER framework for resilience evaluation:
Initial losses Recovery time, depending on:
• Resourcefulness
• Rapidity
Disaster strikes
Systemic
Robustness
Cimellaro GP, Reinhorn AM, Bruneau M (2012). Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures
Different recovery functions
First Urban Resilience framework
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
MCEER (Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research), (2006). “MCEER’s Resilience Framework”. Available at
http://mceer.buffalo.edu/research/resilience/Resilience_10-24-06.pdf
MCEER framework for resilience evaluation:
Initial losses Recovery time, depending on:
• Resourcefulness
• Rapidity
Disaster strikes
Systemic
Robustness
Cimellaro GP, Reinhorn AM, Bruneau M (2012). Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures
Different recovery functions
First Urban Resilience framework
R Resilience
-
Aftermath of the event
-
historical - political – decisions –
aging – LP-HC events
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Modern frameworks
ISSUE: defining the quality Q- Resilience indicators
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
Multidisciplinarity, Multidimensional
A unique framework is needed for the definition of the resilience dimensions and indicators
The Rockefeller-Arup framework
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
http://www.alphachimp.com/weblog/2013/6/28/poptech-the-city-resilient.html
1) Urban resilience is a complex-multidisciplinary-important topic. Currently driving political decisions and a matter of urgency for
modern society
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
http://michalryjak.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/applying-collaborative-innovation-to-design-thinking.jpg
http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/gossip.jpg
http://www.tedxcaserta.it/la-china-e-gli-acquerelli.html
2) For these reasons some important skills need to be developed by our social system: a) proper communication; b) intellectual collaboration; c) correct integration of information; d) a jump toward new working environments
GLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015
Francesco Petrini
Co-founder and Director
StroNGER S.r.l., Via Giacomo Peroni 442-444, Tecnopolo Tiburtino, 00131 Rome (ITALY)
Associate Researcher,
Sapienza – University of Rome,Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering
e-mail: [email protected] , [email protected]
web: http://www.stronger2012.com
Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienza
F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]
LA RESILIENZA DEI SISTEMI
In ecology, resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Such perturbations and disturbances can include stochastic events such as fires, flooding, windstorms, insect population explosions, and human activities such as deforestation, fracking of the ground for oil extraction, pesticide sprayed in soil, and the introduction of exotic plant or animal species. Disturbances of sufficient magnitude or duration can profoundly affect an ecosystem and may force an ecosystem to reach a threshold beyond which a different regime of processes and structures predominates.
British Standard, BS65000(2014) defines "organisationalresilience" as "ability of an organization to anticipate, prepare for, and respond and adapt to incremental change and sudden disruptions in order to survive and prosper."[1]In recent years, a new consensus of the concept of resilience emerged as a practical response to the decreasing lifespan of organisations[2] and the from key stakeholders, including boards, governments, regulators, shareholders, staff, suppliers and customers to effectively address the issues of security, preparedness, risk, and survivability.
www.francobontempi.org
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