1

Climate Variability

as

Experienced by Farmers C Leclerc, C Mwongera, V Moron

2 © C. Mwongera, Cirad

Rainfall variability and droughts have historically been

major causes of famines affecting particularly smallholder

rain-fed agriculture

The high drought risk areas identified around the world

coincide with higher levels of poverty (Hyman et al. 2008,

Waddington et al. 2010)

However, impact of climate variability is mostly assessed

by considering current species and varieties, without taking

into account multicropping systems and dynamics in time

and space

Rainfall variability and

traditional farming systems

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Multicropping systems dynamics

in dryland of Kenya

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Sharp decline for

sorghum and millet

(drought tolerant)

Is the cropping

system more

sensitive to drought

at present than in

the past?

Increase in maize

popularity

(drought sensitive)

Leclerc et al. 2014. Wea Clim Soc 6 (3)

4

Farmers’ experience on seed

losses and climate variations

2010 2000 1984 1975

Year of crop adoption

Year of abandon

Year of variety losses

Climatic reason for loss

2050

Hypothetical rainfall

No dynamic / one crop

Known rainfall

Dynamic

When and Why

Projection into the past Projection into the future

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Questions

1. Does farmers' knowledge and

perception of past climate

correlate to rainfall variables?

2. Is retrospective analysis useful in

assessing cropping system

adaptability to climate change?

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Farmers knowledge accuracy on

past climate 208 farmers at 3 altitudes

(750, 950 and 1100 m)

Rainfall data (1961-2006) 3 stations matched to surveyed farmers

3200 events of variety

losses

Reasons for loss due to rainfall patterns

- Drought =74%

- Heavy rainfall = 9% Farmers study sites

Rainfall stations : 1. Ishiara (872 m)

2. Mitunguu (1189 m), 3. Embu (1433 m)

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Farmers’ declarations

coincides with past droughts

• Farmers declaration of droughts correlated to low rainfall values

• Fuzzy picture of what a drought is in intermediate climatic situations

• The reverse pattern is observed for heavy rainfall with a positive slope

Nkari tagwe

T9

Kithukio

Drought Heavy rainfall

Ordered rainfall values

Pears

on’s residuals

C. Leclerc, C. Mwongera, P. Camberlin, and J. Boyard-Micheau. 2013

Indigenous past climate knowledge as cultural built-in object and its

accuracy. Ecology and Society, 18(4):22.

Ordered rainfall values

1984

2000

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Years

0

100

200

300

400

500

Frequency

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Seed loss probability

increases below 400 mm

(drought) and above 700

mm seasonal amount

(heavy rainfall), according to

farmers’ experiences

It also increased for rainy

seasons shorter than 50

days, and with less than 28

rain days

Climate risk based on farmers’

experiences

Leclerc, C., C. Mwongera, P. Camberlin and V. Moron. 2014. Climate variability,

droughts and farmers' crop variety losses by East African smallholders. A

retrospective survey. Weather, Climate and Society 6 (3).354-370

Pr

(loss)

Seasonal amount (mm)

Drought

Heavy

rainfall

9

VC

VC

Probability to lose a Bean

and maize variety (1 and 2)

higher than probability to

lose a sorghum variety (8)

VC

Altitude:

1=750m

2=950m

3=1100m

Crops:

1=Beans

2=Maize

3=Green gram

4=Pearl millet

5= Cow pea

6= Pigeon pea

7= Finger millet

8= Sorghum

VC

Probability of loss according to altitudes and crops

Leclerc, C., C. Mwongera, P. Camberlin and V. Moron. 2014. Climate variability,

droughts and farmers' crop variety losses by East African smallholders. A

retrospective survey. Weather, Climate and Society 6 (3).354-370

Pr(

loss)

Pr(

loss)

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The cropping system dynamics, favouring maize at

the expense of sorghum and pearl millet, is likely to

induce an increasing risk of seed loss during drought

But climate risk also depends on specific ecological

farming conditions, such as altitude

The integration of farmers experience and scientific

climate knowledge could allow development of

drought monitoring that considers both climatic and

contextual data

Farmers’ perception of drought: conclusion

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Farming system resilience as

perspective Improved varieties were more negatively

impacted than local varieties (10.8% vs 6.4%,

p<0.001)

Varieties obtained from Kinship ties were less

negatively impacted than those obtained from

market (6.5% vs 7.4%, p<0.001)

The role of informal seed system should be thus crucial in farming system resilience

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Thanks for

your attention