Text of Edama Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Workshop
2. Chief of Party Deloitte Consulting
3. The UpdatedComprehensive Energy Strategy Summary By Eng. Walid Shahin Senior Energy Expert, NERC 15 Feb. 2012
4. Challenges facing the energy sector in Jordan Jordan is lacking Indigenous energy resources The country needs to import almost all of its fuel needs (96%) cost of consumed energy to the kingdom: In 2010, it reached 2.6 billion JD, accounting for 13.3% of GDP
5. The following has been recommended toaddress these challenges1.Achieve security of oil derivatives & electricity supply.2.Shift the energy fuel mix from oil to gas in power generation and energy-intensiveindustries.3.Development of domestic energy resources: Evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of oil shale exploitation in Jordan through direct burning to generate electricity or through distillation to produce petroleum. Expand exploration projects in an attempt to discover indigenous natural gas and oil resources through promoting and marketing areas open to investment in the Kingdom, building and enhancing skills of human resources in this field Strengthen the role of the National Energy Research Center to develop the exploitation of new and renewable energy resources, promote energy conservation and establish suitable regulatory frameworks to manage these resources
7. Energy supply and demand in Jordan today Energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels natural gas and oil products Jordan is highly dependent on imports (costs equivalent to 19.5% of GDP) Demand for energy & electricity are rising at very high growth rates: 8% annually on average since 2004. Energy supply by fuel sources 2010 Domestic Resources 39%, Imported 61%7 Domestic Resources 25%, Imported 75%
8. Electricity Generated to Meet FutureDemand 7000 6000 5000 Capacity 4000 3000 2000 curren 1000 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Year current + additional units current units peak load (m edium scenario) peak load (m edium scenario) The anticipated electricity demand in 2020 is 5770 MW compared with 2100 MW in 2007. The additional generated capacity needed is 4100 MW, an average of 300 MW per year.
9. Growth of Primary Energy Demand 18 17 16 15 14 13 million ton 12 11 10 9 8 7 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Year low range forcast m id-range forecast high range forecast In 2020, the expected demand for primary energy amounts to 15 million tons of oil equivalent as compared to 7.6 million tons of oil equivalent in 2007.
10. In January 2007, His Majesty King Abdullah IIentrusted a Royal Committee to: Review and modernize the national energy strategy. Reconsider the national energy strategy for restructuring the energy sector Draw up a work program with clear mechanism and specified cost within a time frame
11. Formation of subcommittees within fouraxes, as followsCrude Oil, electricity and Natural Gas.Renewable energy and energy conservation.Alternative and local energy sources .Legislation and laws
12. PURPOSE OF JORDAN ENERGY STRATEGYJordan Energy Strategy is needed to respond to long-termchallenges of energy security and climate change.To account for key challenges and set the direction for thefuture evolution of Jordans energy sector.To establish long-term policy intentions and guiding principlesfor decisions about the various energy options.To identify where investment is needed and also increase thecoordination of actions made across the energy sector.To provide consistent guidance for energy decisions over timeand the cumulative impact of these will facilitate the transitionto a more sustainable energy future.
13. MethodologyReview main substance of the strategy and the most importantrecommendations as outlined in the strategy dated 7th December2004.Examine what has been accomplished by strategy and identifyconstraints and other developments.Review and update expectations demand for crude oil and oilproducts, natural gas and electricity until 2020.Study the alternatives available to meet this demand and choose thebest alternative.Develop a plan and timetables for the implementation of projectsneeded to meet the requirements within appropriate alternatives.Determining technical requirements, financial and legislativeimplementation of these projects.Making recommendations.
14. The Energy Mix in Jordan (2007 2020) 2015 Imported ElectricityDomestic Resources 25%, Imported 75% Domestic Resources 39%, Imported 61%
15. Oil Sector RecommendationsProceed with the program of restructuring/liberalizing the oil sector in accordance with the termination of JPRCs concession.Conduct medium and long term action plans to maintain storage of crude oil and oil derivatives for 90 days. This entails the following: Increasing storage capacity for oil derivatives to 735,000 tons (medium term); which includes 51,000 tons of LPG to meet Jordans medium term needs, and to meet Jordans future needs. Increasing buffer storage for crude oil in Aqaba to 230,000 tons through the refurbishment of the oil port by Aqaba Petroleum Company to replace the Jerash Tanker.
16. Main Projects / Oil Project / Program Cost ($US Funding Implementation Plan million)- Jordan Petroleum Refinery - 1275 - Private Sector -Select a strategic partner (03/2008) Companys Fourth Expansion -Conclude studies and agreements Project and arrange financing (06/2009) -Project implementation (06/2009 06/2012)- Establish marketing, - 312