The Forecast // Artificial Intelligence

The Forecast Artificial Intelligence

By Usbek & Rica I October 2015

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Contents

Methodology……………………………………………………………...…..3 Experts………………………………………………..…………………….…4 Part 1 / The context..…………………………………………………….…..5 1.  History……………………………………………………………….….…6 2.  Definition……………………………………………………………...….16 3.  Market dynamics……………………………………………………...…25 4.  Benefits………………………………………………………………..…50 5.  Consumer perception ……………………………………………….….59

Part 2 / Real-life applications…………………………………………….…72 1.  Lifestyle……………………………………………………………..........75 2.  Consumption………………………………………………………...…113

Part 3 / The limits……………………………………………………….…141

2 !e Forecast l Arti"cial Intelligence l October 2015

Methodology

+ Online desk research & strategic watch (specialized websites, blogs, social media, print and online magazines) + Qualitative insights (expert interviews & extracts of public talks) + Quantitative insights (extracts of results from research studies) + In-situ observations (travel trips, shop visits, art exhibitions, films, advertising, the street) 3

!e Forecast l Arti"cial Intelligence l October 2015

Interviewed experts

Laurent Ach

Manager of the French branch of Rakuten

Institute of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department

of Rakuten group

Heather Locker

Head of Trend Forecasting company

Future Foundation, America

Rand Hindi

CEO & Founder of predictive analytics

startup Snips

Vincent Le Cerf

Doctor in computing specialized in artificial

intelligence, and founder of company

Metagenia


PART 1 /

CONTEXT


History 1.


Ancient times

Thinking machines and artificial beings appeared in Greek myths: •  Talos was a man of Bronze forged by

Hephaestus; •  Daedalus used quicksilver to install voice

in his moving statues; •  King Alkinous of the Phaiakians

employed gold and silver watchdogs; •  Pygmalion animated his statue Galatea,

whom he felt in love with. Animated cult images were also worshiped in Egypt. Humanoid automatons were built by Yan Shi, Hero of Alexandria and Al-Jazari. Source: Wikipedia.com


The Turing test (1950s)

In early 1950s, British mathematician Alan Turing proposed a test to determine if a machine can be defined as "conscious." To this purpose, he developed the "imitation game”, according to which a judge can interact with a machine and a human using a terminal without being able to differentiate one from the other. Source: Wikipedia.com


Formalization of the term (1956)

The term “artificial intelligence” was coined in 1956 by American computer scientist and cognitive scientist John McCarthy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Source: Wikipedia.com

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Today’s definition 2.


The commonly accepted definition

Today, Artificial Intelligence is more commonly known as "machine learning”. This consists in working on a database that is used as an example and then gets generalized. - Laurent Ach, Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of Rakuten group (September 9, 2015)

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A.I. is not to be confused with….


“Big Data”

Big Data is the collection of personal information whereas Artificial Intelligence is the use of this information.


“Deep learning”

Deep learning is the modern version of neural networks, those that use the latest techniques. These large networks involve more sophisticated results.



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Market dynamics 3.


3.1. Growth & forecast 3.2. Market players


3.1. Growth & forecast


Smart machines : a spectacular evolution to come

The global market for smart machines will grow to $15.3 billion by 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 19.7%.

Source: BCC Research, May 2014


Robotics : the most promising category

The autonomous robots segment (including self-driving vehicles for space exploration), which was

valued at just $1.1 billion in 2013, is set to jump to nearly $3.6 billion in 2019 and $13.9 billion in 2024.

Source: BCC Research study, May 2014


Mobility is expected to be a key sector

Advanced driver assistance systems will have a global

market volume of €16 billion in 2019 ($17 billion), compared

to €5 billion in 2012.

Source: Strategy Analytics, Octobr 2014



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3.2. Market players


The future of A.I. is currently hold in the hands of a few players

Facebook Amazon Apple Google


A potential threat to watch closely

The GAFA are acquiring all the business in the field of A.I. As they are only a few, we should watch them closely. The solution? Making them public - which sounds complicated – or improving their regulation. - Vincent Le Cerf, Doctor in computing specialized in artificial intelligence, and founder of company Metagenia (September 18, 2015)

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Alongside the GAFA, other tech giants have entered the market of AI


LATEST ACQUISITIONS:

+ Nest Labs, the maker of the Nest Learning Thermostat and Protect smoke detector on January 2014 for $3.2 billion.

+ DeepMind, the artificial intelligence research startup working on Artificial Intelligence, for a reported $400 million. The company has added :

–  Dark Blue Labs that specializes in deep learning for understanding natural language,

–  Vision Factory that specializes in visual recognition systems and deep learning.


PROJECTS TO WATCH: + The company developed virtual personal assistant Google Now in 2012 and launched Google Now on Tap in June 2015. + A machine created in Feb 2015, can figure out how to play and win video games - over 49 Atari 2600 computer games from the 1980s. + An advanced type of “chatbot” that learns how to respond in conversations based on examples from a training set of dialogue. The bot can form new answers from new questions. Future versions could be used in more general decision-making applications, such as driverless cars or weather prediction.


LATEST INITIATIVES: + Metaio, an augmented reality firm, has been acquired; + John Morrell, a Yale robotics expert, was recruited in 2013; + Vocal IQ, a speech-related artificial intelligence company, has been acquired in October 2015. It enables users to talk more naturally with their smart devices.


John Morrell

PROJECTS TO WATCH: + Proactive, an intelligent, context-based software that will to learn the user’s habits and predict their needs accordingly; + The Apple Car, which is currently called “Project Titan”, and set to be released in 2020. The car will feature spoken word instruction, predictive analytics, automatic accident prevention and car-to-car communication; + Improvements on Siri, such as making users’ interactions with it more natural; running searches of the photo roll based on dates and locations; setting contextual reminders based on what the user is doing on the phone; having deep integration with Apple Music, etc.


The world’s leading figures

+ Yann LeCun, deep learning expert, Founding Director of the NYU Center for Data Science and Director of AI Research at Facebook;

+ Geoff Hinton, world leader in deep learning expert, professor at the University of Toronto and Distinguished Researcher at Google;

+ Demis Hassabis, former chess champion and founder of DeepMind Technologies, acquired by Google;

+ Ralf Herbrich, European Union director of machine learning at Amazon and managing director of the Amazon Development Center in Germany.


Yann LeCun

Geoff Hinton

Demis Hassabis Ralf Herbrich


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Benefits 4.


4.1. Control 4.2. Performance 4.3. Convenience & comfort 4.4. Seamless 4.5. Personalization


Control

Consumers are increasingly getting used to having control over every aspect of their lives - mostly through the use of their smartphone, which has become out life 'remote control'. AI will only increase this need for or increase consumer desire for more control over their lives. - Heather Cocker, Head of Future Foundation America

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Performance

More and more tasks are better performed by machines. That's why some experts say there is no limit. Also, we’re going to generalize and so turn to the machines to find out how to act. - Laurent Ach, Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of Rakuten group (September 9, 2015)

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Seamless

In this era, called “Ubiquitous Computing”, adding new connected devices does not add friction, it actually adds value! (...) Technology will have become so deeply integrated in our lives and ourselves that we simply won’t notice it anymore. Artificial Intelligence will have made technology disappear from our consciousness, and the world will feel unplugged again. - Rand Hindi, CEO & Founder of predictive analytics startup Snips

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Perception by the public 5.


5.1. Super powerful machines 5.2. Our new friends 5.3. Threat to the job market 5.4. Extermination of the human race


5.1. Super powerful machines


1987 2011

2015 2014

In popular culture, robots are often figured as super performing and indestructible machines whose strength surpasses that of humans. This reflects people’s fantasy of the invincible and immortal creature.

5.2. Our new friends


1999

2012

2005

2015 2013

Smart machines are perceived positively by humans and accepted in society as long as they demonstrate human characteristics such as emotion and feelings.


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PART 2 /

REAL-LIFE APPLICATIONS


Lifestyle 1.


1.1. Medical Care 1.2. Education 1.3. Home 1.4. Work 1.5. Mobility 1.6. Personal assistants


1.1. Medical care #NursingRobot #ProcedureAutomation #SurgeonAssistants


Medical care

Unveiled in February 2015, Robear is a Japanese nursing robot that is designed to help with elder care. Japan has one of the largest aging populations in the world, so this is incredibly important. Robear is able to lift elderly patients out of bed and into wheelchairs, as well as helping those who need assistance to stand up. Robear weighs in at 140kg, and is the successor to heavier robots RIBA and RIBA-II.


Medical care

Veebot is an intelligent machine that aims to make the whole procedure of venipuncture automated. In doing so, it will reduce error and decrease venipuncture times. The company claims the robot can use imaging technology to find the right vein, draw the blood, and mark for the lab far faster than any human. Benefits include hospitals and clinics’ money savings, while it reduces the risk of injury to practitioners, and improves comfort and care for patients.


1.2. Education #RobotTeacher #DigitalPen #VirtualConcierge


Education

Two humanoid robots, Max and Ben, have been helping teach children with autism at Topcliffe Primary, in the UK. Head teacher Ian Lowe said: "The robots have no emotion, so autistic children find them less threatening than their teachers and easier to engage with."


Education

Poppy is an open-source platform for the creation, use and sharing of interactive 3D printed robots. It gathers an interdisciplinary community of beginners and experts, scientists, educators, developers and artists, that all share a vision: robots are powerful tools to learn and be creative.



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Consumption 2.


2.1. Retail 2.2. Food & Drink 2.3. Hospitality 2.4. Entertainment


2.1. Retail #RobotAssistant #Personnalization #Beacons #VirtualCloset


Retail

Japanese giant Toshiba aims to enhance the in-store experience with the creation of a humanoid robot-assistant named Aiko Chihira. Situated at the information desk of a department store in Tokyo, it is supposed to help customers find their way around but is unlikely to engage in smalltalk. The female-looking robot only speaks Japanese - but she is also capable of sign language. Chihira also blinks, bows and moves its mouth and lips smoothly while speaking.


Retail

US shoe retailer Steve Madden is now using predictive analytics through Certona, the leader in real-time omnichannel personalization, to connect customers with the fashion and products they love in a way that is personal, unique and targeted to each individual. Indeed, the patented technology enables the brand to identify new and specific customer segments, and then strategically target content by segment. When shoppers navigate Steve Madden’s interactive, digital ecosystem, they receive personalized content and offers that appeal to their individual preferences.


2.2. Food & Drink #VendingMachine #MobileApp #SelfTracking


Food & Drink

UK-based company Smart Vend Solutions has created an intelligent vending machine that uses facial recognition technology to remember users' previous purchases and product preferences and replace unhealthy crisps and sweets with healthier food options. The machine is linked to an existing database of self-registered subscribers, which makes it able to personally greet customers, recall their past purchases and even refuse to sell them products based on their age, dietary requirements and medical history.


Food & Drink

Californian start-up BitBite has created an in-ear wearable device that tracks and analyses eating habits. It uses sensors to measure bite count, number of calories consumed, and the speed and quality of chewing. It can then offer tips on improving eating habits and calorie intake via an accompanying smartphone app. BitBite has surpassed its $60,000 crowdfunding goal on website Indiegogo, and is currently into production.



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PART 3 /

THE LIMITS


1.1. Robots remain robots 1.2. Technical imperfections 1.3. Ethics and moral 1.4. Digital detox 1.5. Naming issue


1.1. Robots remain robots

As of 2015, computers are still not able to simulate human behavior. This is essentially due to the failure to demonstrate linguistic intelligence. If they can be attentive and empathetic, they remain pretty functional and can’t maintain a proper conversation.


1.2. Technical imperfections

Risk of a breakdown, data loss, cyberattacks, not to mention viruses, system failures and general bugs… AI is not exempt of malware, which highlights its current vulnerability. In the current state of technology, systems are not free from hacking and bugs, which are still annoying to users. Yet, the first thing users ask from tech is that their devices work seamlessly, simultaneously and without interruption. Besides, because A.I. algorithms are being asked to make always higher-stakes decisions, such as driving cars and controlling robots, the impact of technical issues and attacks are likely to be much more devastating than they were in the past. Source: International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Research, September 2013 Source: Medium.com, January 2015



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Thank you Contacts:

Roxane Baché, Director of Trends & Insights [email protected] Jérôme Ruskin, Founder & CEO [email protected]

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