Thinking about Thinking IASummit 2014

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Behavioral science provides insights for building information structures that resonate with the human mind.

Text of Thinking about Thinking IASummit 2014

  • 1. Thinking about Thinkingand the demands of the post-digital worldCassandra Moore, PhDAquilentIA Summit 2014

2. The digital revolution is over.Nicholas NegroponteWe have a growing internet of things.Data is ubiquitous, sensors are autonomous.Post-digital is the state of things after the fanfare.How do we dwell in an information ecology?@Seymour188 3. @Seymour188 4. @Seymour188 5. What we Dont See@Seymour188 6. How do we build digital systems toresonate with those parameters?@Seymour188Everything we think, feel, sense isfiltered through the particularparameters of our sensory andcognitive systems. 7. Two Families of Mental OperationSystem 1 System 2 Automatic, effortless, quick Largely unconscious,difficult/impossible to control Operates on biases and heuristics Does most of the work of thinking Controlled, effortful, slow Usually conscious Logically coherent, rule-governed Lazy, difficult to engage Who we think we are@Seymour188 8. Paying more When WatchedBateson, M et al, Cues of being watched enhance cooperation in a real-world setting. Biology Letters (2006) 2, 412-414 9. Expertise is Intuitive Thinking@Seymour188 10. BIASES IN INTUITIVE THINKING@Seymour188 11. ASSOCIATIVE COHERENCE@Seymour188 12. PrimingVOMIT BANANAS@Seymour188 13. When did Attila the Hun Rise to Power?It depends on the serial number.@Seymour188 14. The Invisible GorillaChablis and Simons, The Invisible Gorilla 15. Associative Coherence Suppression of ambiguity or doubt Incorporation of extraneous information World seems much more coherent than it is@Seymour188 16. CAUSALITY AND INTENT@Seymour188 17. Merely Shapes on a ScreenHeider and Simmel, 1944 18. Causality & Intent Coincident timing perceived as causality@Seymour188 Agency is attributed to objects Motives are attributed to objects 19. STATISTICS AND NUMEROSITY@Seymour188 20. Substituting Similarity for ProbabilityLinda studied philosophy in college , most people think she went to Berkeley. Sheparticipated in anti-nuclear marches, she was very bright and very active.Ten years have passed. Which of the following is most probable?Linda is a feminist bank teller.Linda is a bank teller.P(Teller) P(Feminist and Teller)@Seymour188 21. We Suck at Statistics Substitute easier operations for hard ones@Seymour188 Discount the base rate Small numbers are lawless 22. Its tough to make predictions,especially about the future. Yogi Berra@Seymour188 23. Impact Bias Overestimate theimpact of events onfuture happiness Focus solely on theevent, tend to forgetother things will occur Best predictor is howothers are doing in thesame situation 24. Overconfidence Bias Pundits predictionsaround chance Overconfidence inpredictions Discount falsifyingevidence Reluctant to change inthe face of negativeevidence@Seymour188 25. Where do we go from here? Expect everything to become a coherent story Multi-tasking isnt Under-design causality comes for free Tell peoples stories to improve decisions Do the stats behind the scenes@Seymour188 26. THANK YOU!SeymourInfoArchitect on 27. A Different Perspective@Seymour188 28. Percentages are DifficultA health survey wasconducted on a sample ofadult males of all ages andoccupations.What percentage of themen have had a heartattack?What percentage of themen are both over 55 andhave had a heart attack?A health survey wasconducted on a sample of100 adult males of all agesand occupations.How many of the 100 menhave had a heart attack?How many of the men areboth over 55 and have had aheart attack?