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International International TerrorismTerrorism
Andreas WimmerAndreas Wimmer
Fundamental QuestionsFundamental Questions1.1. Is Terrorism warfare?Is Terrorism warfare?
2.2. Is terror a legitimate tool?/ What is international Is terror a legitimate tool?/ What is international terrorism?terrorism?
3.3. Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold war area?war area?
4.4. Is 9/11 significant? Is 9/11 significant?
5.5. Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat?
6.6. What counter measures we can take against the What counter measures we can take against the threat?threat?
Is Terrorism a legitimate tool?Is Terrorism a legitimate tool?
Is Terrorism warfare?Is Terrorism warfare? Colin Gray thesis Colin Gray thesis “All Terrorist are Soldiers.” “All Terrorist are Soldiers.”
Another Bloody Century, Future WarfareAnother Bloody Century, Future Warfare Legitimating terrorism for the sake of war! Legitimating terrorism for the sake of war!
Terror is a form of warfare in both Terror is a form of warfare in both conventional and insurgency wars. conventional and insurgency wars.
Terrorism against states or individuals not in Terrorism against states or individuals not in a state of insecurity or declaring martial law a state of insecurity or declaring martial law remains a crime!remains a crime!
Is Terrorism warfare? Is Terrorism warfare? Depends on the perspectiveDepends on the perspective
Is terror a legitimate tool?Is terror a legitimate tool? Philosophical explanation (definition on Philosophical explanation (definition on
what is right? Or Who is right?)what is right? Or Who is right?) East Timor, War of Independence (1775–1783), French East Timor, War of Independence (1775–1783), French
Revolution, Israel (1948) Revolution, Israel (1948)
Pragmatic explanationPragmatic explanation Jurisprudence (resistance movements)Jurisprudence (resistance movements) International Law (Geneva Convention, U.N Charter)International Law (Geneva Convention, U.N Charter)
Adversary viewAdversary view (means are justified) (means are justified) Revolutionary warfare (Banastre Tarleton)Revolutionary warfare (Banastre Tarleton) War of Independence (Algerian Civil War 1990)War of Independence (Algerian Civil War 1990) Struggle, freedom fights or idiosyncratic millenarian movementsStruggle, freedom fights or idiosyncratic millenarian movements Mahdi movement (Mahdi movement (Muhammad Ahmad ibn as Sayyid Abd Allah Muhammad Ahmad ibn as Sayyid Abd Allah
1845 - 1885 )1845 - 1885 )
Jurisprudence on terrorismJurisprudence on terrorism1.1. Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons, Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons,
including Diplomatic Agents, New York, 14 December 1973 including Diplomatic Agents, New York, 14 December 1973 2.2. International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, New York, 17 December 1979 International Convention against the Taking of Hostages, New York, 17 December 1979 3.3. International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings, New York, 15 December 1997International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings, New York, 15 December 19974.4. International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, New York, 9 December International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, New York, 9 December
199919995.5. Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts Committed on Board Aircraft, Tokyo, 14 September Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts Committed on Board Aircraft, Tokyo, 14 September
1963 (*)1963 (*)6.6. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft, The Hague, 16 December 1970 (*) Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft, The Hague, 16 December 1970 (*) 7.7. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 23 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 23
September 1971 (*) September 1971 (*) 8.8. Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, Vienna, 3 March 1980 (**)Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material, Vienna, 3 March 1980 (**)9.9. Protocol on the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving International Civil Protocol on the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving International Civil
Aviation, supplementary to the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety Aviation, supplementary to the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 24 February 1988 (*) of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 24 February 1988 (*)
10.10. Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, Rome, Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, Rome, 10 March 1988 10 March 1988
11.11. Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms located on the Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms located on the Continental Shelf, Rome, 10 March 1988 Continental Shelf, Rome, 10 March 1988
12.12. Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection, Montreal, 1 March Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection, Montreal, 1 March 1991 (*) 1991 (*)
13.13. 1949 Geneva Convention 1949 Geneva Convention
Is terror a legitimate tool?Is terror a legitimate tool? ICRC, Geneva Convention, UN Charter - ICRC, Geneva Convention, UN Charter - a clear NO! a clear NO!
Criminal Code – Criminal Code – a clear NO!a clear NO!
Political perspective – Political perspective – well fuzzy, as and if opportune (for well fuzzy, as and if opportune (for state) for adversary – always YES!state) for adversary – always YES!
Colonists (US War of Independence) - Colonists (US War of Independence) - YES!YES! Beaten on the battlefield, Francis Marion fixed British forces away from Beaten on the battlefield, Francis Marion fixed British forces away from
the main continental contingents. Actions by the British justified Colonists the main continental contingents. Actions by the British justified Colonists retaliatory actionsretaliatory actions
Is terror a legitimate tool?Is terror a legitimate tool? International humanitarian law prohibits without exception all International humanitarian law prohibits without exception all
acts of terror during international or non-international armed acts of terror during international or non-international armed conflicts.conflicts.
This body of law also requires States to prevent and punish breaches. Acts of terrorism This body of law also requires States to prevent and punish breaches. Acts of terrorism may constitute war crimes, subject to international jurisdiction, and the International may constitute war crimes, subject to international jurisdiction, and the International Criminal Court may be competent to hear such cases.Criminal Court may be competent to hear such cases.
At the same time, the fight against terrorism and the prosecution of persons suspected of At the same time, the fight against terrorism and the prosecution of persons suspected of terrorism are subject to international humanitarian law if they take place during armed conflict. terrorism are subject to international humanitarian law if they take place during armed conflict. That body of law does not constitute an obstacle to the fight against terrorism. Indeed, That body of law does not constitute an obstacle to the fight against terrorism. Indeed, suspected terrorists can be prosecuted for acts of terrorism.suspected terrorists can be prosecuted for acts of terrorism. But even the members of But even the members of armed forces or “illegal fighters” suspected of acts of terrorism are armed forces or “illegal fighters” suspected of acts of terrorism are protected by the Geneva Conventions and are entitled to judicial protected by the Geneva Conventions and are entitled to judicial guarantees if put on trial.guarantees if put on trial.
http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdfhttp://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdf http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3Bhttp://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3B
International terrorismInternational terrorism
Is 9/11 significant? - PerspectivesIs 9/11 significant? - Perspectives PoliticalPolitical
Emotional resonance Emotional resonance ““Starting now, life in America is about emergencies rather than ease”Starting now, life in America is about emergencies rather than ease”
Economical, ConstitutionalEconomical, Constitutional Patriot Act, curbing of civil libertiesPatriot Act, curbing of civil liberties Economical switch to the Euro threatens US economy; Iraq’s Economical switch to the Euro threatens US economy; Iraq’s
invasion has economical justificationsinvasion has economical justifications Ideological/ Religious Ideological/ Religious
Muslim perspective. Surah 9:11 does not appear relevant, but Muslim perspective. Surah 9:11 does not appear relevant, but Surah 9:111 is highly relevant because it firmly promises Surah 9:111 is highly relevant because it firmly promises heavenly gardens to those who slay and are slain in Allah's way. heavenly gardens to those who slay and are slain in Allah's way.
Some historians noted that September 11, 1683 the Battle of Some historians noted that September 11, 1683 the Battle of Vienna, was the turning point in a 250-year struggle between the Vienna, was the turning point in a 250-year struggle between the forces of the Christian West and the Islamic Ottoman Empire. forces of the Christian West and the Islamic Ottoman Empire.
http://www.progressive.org/node/1777
James Ashcroft, Virgin Books, Making A Killing, page 215
Is 9/11 significant? - PerspectivesIs 9/11 significant? - Perspectives
StrategicStrategic Hegemonic change of the United StatesHegemonic change of the United States Regional changes initiatedRegional changes initiated
SocialSocial Impact on the “American soul”Impact on the “American soul” Attack against the “homeland”; first since Attack against the “homeland”; first since
19411941
U.S perspectiveU.S perspective Title 22, US Code, Section 2656f(d)Title 22, US Code, Section 2656f(d) (used by the Department of State and the (used by the Department of State and the
CIA) CIA) TerrorismTerrorism is premeditated is premeditated, , politically motivated violencepolitically motivated violence perpetrated perpetrated
against non-combatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually against non-combatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.intended to influence an audience.
International terrorismInternational terrorism is terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than is terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than one country.one country.
AA Terrorist group Terrorist group is any group practicing, or which has significant subgroups which is any group practicing, or which has significant subgroups which practice, international terrorism. practice, international terrorism.
Federal Bureau of InvestigationFederal Bureau of Investigation International terrorismInternational terrorism involves violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a involves violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a
violation of the criminal laws of the United States or any state, or that would be a criminal violation of the criminal laws of the United States or any state, or that would be a criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or any state. These acts violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or any state. These acts appear to be intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population, influence the policy of appear to be intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian population, influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion, or affect the conduct of a government by a government by intimidation or coercion, or affect the conduct of a government by assassination or kidnapping. International terrorist acts occur outside the United States or assassination or kidnapping. International terrorist acts occur outside the United States or transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the persons they appear intended to coerce or intimidate, or the locale in which the persons they appear intended to coerce or intimidate, or the locale in which the perpetrators operate or seek asylum.perpetrators operate or seek asylum.
U.S perspectiveU.S perspective U.S. State Department’s official list of states supporting U.S. State Department’s official list of states supporting
terrorism terrorism Political mandated by U.S Congress Political mandated by U.S Congress
““to take the moral high ground against terrorism with little to take the moral high ground against terrorism with little political cost.”political cost.”
““With no objective criteria for deciding when countries should be With no objective criteria for deciding when countries should be placed on or removed from the list, inclusion is a purely political placed on or removed from the list, inclusion is a purely political decision.”decision.”
Syria Syria State Department testified in 1995 that it had no evidence of Syrian State Department testified in 1995 that it had no evidence of Syrian
involvement in terrorism since 1984!involvement in terrorism since 1984! SerbiaSerbia
Not on the State Department list despite its support of Bosnian Not on the State Department list despite its support of Bosnian Serbs committing mass atrocities and terrorist acts in Bosnia. Serbs committing mass atrocities and terrorist acts in Bosnia.
http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htm
What is international terrorism?What is international terrorism? Religious terrorism Religious terrorism
Tends to be more violent then secular terrorismTends to be more violent then secular terrorism ““Amateur” terrorism Amateur” terrorism
Lethal, self inspired, indirect sponsored Lethal, self inspired, indirect sponsored Hamas vs. PLOHamas vs. PLO Trade Center bombing 1983 (400$, 6 killed, more than 1,000 Trade Center bombing 1983 (400$, 6 killed, more than 1,000
injured, 180ft. Six storey deep crater, 550$ million damageinjured, 180ft. Six storey deep crater, 550$ million damage ““Professional” terrorismProfessional” terrorism
Core cadre provide the foundation for amateursCore cadre provide the foundation for amateurs OutomeOutome
Accelerate in lethality since 1990Accelerate in lethality since 1990
http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/hob01/
What is international terrorism?What is international terrorism? Agro-terrorism Agro-terrorism
A subset of bioterrorism, agro-terrorism would involve the use of a biological agent A subset of bioterrorism, agro-terrorism would involve the use of a biological agent against the agricultural industry and/or food supply. against the agricultural industry and/or food supply.
Cyber-terrorismCyber-terrorism A terrorist attack aimed at crippling the country's networking infrastructure through A terrorist attack aimed at crippling the country's networking infrastructure through
the use of viruses etc, which also results in violence against persons the use of viruses etc, which also results in violence against persons or property.or property.
Narco-terrorismNarco-terrorism This term does not refer to a method of attack, but rather to a description of the link This term does not refer to a method of attack, but rather to a description of the link
between narcotics trafficking and terrorism – it involves being a direct or indirect between narcotics trafficking and terrorism – it involves being a direct or indirect participant in drug trafficking and using the profits to advance or finance terrorist participant in drug trafficking and using the profits to advance or finance terrorist activities.activities.
WMD terrorism WMD terrorism A terrorist attack utilizing a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), i.e. the use of a A terrorist attack utilizing a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), i.e. the use of a
chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological weapon” chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological weapon”
http://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htmhttp://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htm http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.htmlhttp://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.html
ConclusionsConclusions No conclusive definition but commonly No conclusive definition but commonly
accepted legal, moral definitions of what accepted legal, moral definitions of what terrorism is generally perceivedterrorism is generally perceived
Interpretation subject to change and often Interpretation subject to change and often defined by the type of response:defined by the type of response: US perspective (direct & historically kinetic)US perspective (direct & historically kinetic) European perspective (indirect)European perspective (indirect) Asian perspectives (mixed) Asian perspectives (mixed) Adversaries perspective (direct & historically Adversaries perspective (direct & historically
kinetic, only when defeated pattern changes)kinetic, only when defeated pattern changes)
U.S policy exampleU.S policy example Make no concessions to terrorists and strike Make no concessions to terrorists and strike
no deals; no deals; Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes; Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes; Isolate and apply pressure on states that Isolate and apply pressure on states that
sponsor terrorism to force them to change sponsor terrorism to force them to change their behavior; and, their behavior; and,
Bolster the counterterrorism capabilities of Bolster the counterterrorism capabilities of countries that work with the United States countries that work with the United States and require assistance. and require assistance.
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.html
Historical Statistical DataHistorical Statistical Data
Historical view 1997 dataHistorical view 1997 data
Most deadliest groups 1997 dataMost deadliest groups 1997 data
1997 The Year of Violence1997 The Year of Violence
Terrorist Incidents by Region Terrorist Incidents by Region 01/01/1968 - 12/24/2006 01/01/1968 - 12/24/2006
RegionRegion IncidentsIncidents InjuriesInjuries FatalitiesFatalities
AfricaAfrica 10591059 92089208 34963496
East & Central AsiaEast & Central Asia 242242 55845584 253253
Eastern EuropeEastern Europe 14051405 51005100 19841984
Latin America & the CaribbeanLatin America & the Caribbean 36163616 38543854 23222322
Middle East / Persian GulfMiddle East / Persian Gulf 1242412424 4443544435 2201422014North AmericaNorth America 576576 42214221 35663566
South AsiaSouth Asia 46044604 2209722097 80718071
Southeast Asia & OceaniaSoutheast Asia & Oceania 15561556 50905090 17911791
Western EuropeWestern Europe 54735473 56425642 14391439
TOTALTOTAL 3095530955 105231105231 4493644936
Terrorist Incidents by Target Terrorist Incidents by Target 01/01/1968 - 12/24/200601/01/1968 - 12/24/2006
TargetTarget IncidentsIncidents InjuriesInjuries FatalitiesFatalities
Airports & AirlinesAirports & Airlines 44 166166 4343
BusinessBusiness 2323 29622962 29132913
DiplomaticDiplomatic 2222 57395739 414414
GovernmentGovernment 2020 344344 364364
Journalists & MediaJournalists & Media 44 9292 3232
MaritimeMaritime 11 3939 1717
MilitaryMilitary 2424 296296 430430
NGONGO 33 66 1919
OtherOther 1414 366366 190190
PolicePolice 1212 338338 8888
Private Citizens & PropertyPrivate Citizens & Property 3535 16291629 287287
Religious Figures/InstitutionsReligious Figures/Institutions 33 6969 2525
TouristsTourists 55 405405 223223
TransportationTransportation 2929 847847 260260
UnknownUnknown 1414 33 1515
UtilitiesUtilities 11 00 66
TOTALTOTAL 214214 1330113301 53265326
1980 – 1990/ 1990 - 20061980 – 1990/ 1990 - 2006Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 1798 4688 2030
February 1521 4941 2211
March 1622 11929 2330
April 1410 3963 1789
May 1401 4653 1929
June 1573 4751 2051
July 1816 4795 2173
August 1851 11365 2937
September 1529 7941 5373
October 1736 5812 2512
November 1670 4765 1983
December 1828 4851 2108
TOTAL 19755 74454 29426
Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 238 176 165
February 240 578 157
March 341 1060 361
April 327 1983 310
May 265 314 109
June 279 277 464
July 278 990 223
August 302 619 193
September 315 1100 447
October 315 1098 541
November 236 389 370
December 276 765 527
TOTAL 3412 9349 3867
MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND
Evolution of TerrorismEvolution of Terrorism
Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) Is Terrorism a Serious ThreatIs Terrorism a Serious Threat
Terrorism is a Serious Threat (Hoffman, Paul Bremer!)Terrorism is a Serious Threat (Hoffman, Paul Bremer!) The Threat of Terrorism is Overstated (1997-2000) [Larry C. The Threat of Terrorism is Overstated (1997-2000) [Larry C.
Johnson/ William Church]Johnson/ William Church] WMD Do Not Pose a Terrorist ThreatWMD Do Not Pose a Terrorist Threat Terrorism Against Information Systems Is a ThreatTerrorism Against Information Systems Is a Threat
The Threat of Terrorism is Being Reduced (John Ashcroft! - 2004)The Threat of Terrorism is Being Reduced (John Ashcroft! - 2004) Biological Terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)Biological Terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004) The Threat of Biological Terrorism has been exaggerated (2004)The Threat of Biological Terrorism has been exaggerated (2004) America Is a Serious Terrorist Threat (2004)America Is a Serious Terrorist Threat (2004) Southeast Asia Terrorism Is a Serious Problem (2004)Southeast Asia Terrorism Is a Serious Problem (2004) Narco-terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)Narco-terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)
Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) What Motivates Terrorism?What Motivates Terrorism?
Religious Fanaticism Motivates TerroristsReligious Fanaticism Motivates Terrorists Postwar Developments Motivate TerroristsPostwar Developments Motivate Terrorists Democracy Encourages TerrorismDemocracy Encourages Terrorism Economic Distress Motivates Terrorists (2000 & 2004)Economic Distress Motivates Terrorists (2000 & 2004) Israeli Actions Motivate Middle East TerroristsIsraeli Actions Motivate Middle East Terrorists A combination of factors motivate TerroristsA combination of factors motivate Terrorists
What Are the Causes of Terrorism?What Are the Causes of Terrorism? Islam Encourages Terrorism (2004)Islam Encourages Terrorism (2004) Islam Does Not Encourage Terrorism (2004)Islam Does Not Encourage Terrorism (2004) Economic Problems Cause Terrorism (2004)Economic Problems Cause Terrorism (2004) Israel's Occupation of Palestine Causes Terrorism (Hamas – 2004)Israel's Occupation of Palestine Causes Terrorism (Hamas – 2004) Palestinian Hatred of Israel Causes Terrorism Palestinian Hatred of Israel Causes Terrorism
Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) Can Terrorism be Justified?Can Terrorism be Justified?
Resistance to Tyranny Justifies Violence against U.S Resistance to Tyranny Justifies Violence against U.S governmentgovernment
Resistance to British Rule Justifies Bombings in Northern Resistance to British Rule Justifies Bombings in Northern IrelandIreland
Bombings in Northern Ireland Cannot be JustifiedBombings in Northern Ireland Cannot be Justified American Policies in the Middle East Justify Islamic American Policies in the Middle East Justify Islamic
Terrorism (Osama Bin Laden interview)Terrorism (Osama Bin Laden interview) Israeli Occupation of Palestine Justifies Islamic TerrorismIsraeli Occupation of Palestine Justifies Islamic Terrorism The Islamic Faith Does Not Condone Terrorism The Islamic Faith Does Not Condone Terrorism
Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2000 – 2004)(2000 – 2004) How Should the United States respond?How Should the United States respond?
Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Help Reduce Terrorism Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Help Reduce Terrorism Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Not Reduce Terrorism Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Not Reduce Terrorism The U.S Should Retaliate Against Terrorist GroupsThe U.S Should Retaliate Against Terrorist Groups Retaliation Efforts Against Terrorists Are FruitlessRetaliation Efforts Against Terrorists Are Fruitless Expanding the FBI’s Power is a necessary Response to Terrorism (Louis J. Expanding the FBI’s Power is a necessary Response to Terrorism (Louis J.
Freeh)Freeh) CT Legislation is a Dangerous Expansion of Governmental Powers CT Legislation is a Dangerous Expansion of Governmental Powers
How Should America’s Domestic War on Terrorism Be How Should America’s Domestic War on Terrorism Be Conducted? (2004) Conducted? (2004) Antiterrorism Legislation Will Make America SaferAntiterrorism Legislation Will Make America Safer Antiterrorism Legislation Threatens Civil Liberties Antiterrorism Legislation Threatens Civil Liberties Racial Profiling Will Make America Safer Racial Profiling Will Make America Safer Racial Profiling Will Make America Less SafeRacial Profiling Will Make America Less Safe Immigration Must Be Restricted to Protect America Against TerroristsImmigration Must Be Restricted to Protect America Against Terrorists Immigrants Enhance National SecurityImmigrants Enhance National Security
Opposing ViewpointsOpposing Viewpoints(2004) – surprise entry(2004) – surprise entry How Should the International Community How Should the International Community
Respond to Terrorism?Respond to Terrorism? The UN Should Lead the Fight Against The UN Should Lead the Fight Against
Terrorism vs. Should Not Lead the FightTerrorism vs. Should Not Lead the Fight War Is an Appropriate Response to Terrorism War Is an Appropriate Response to Terrorism War Is the Wrong Response to TerrorismWar Is the Wrong Response to Terrorism Brokering a Peace Between Israel & Palestinians Brokering a Peace Between Israel & Palestinians
Can Reduce Terrorism vs. Will Not Reduce Can Reduce Terrorism vs. Will Not Reduce Terrorism Terrorism
Old vs. New TerrorOld vs. New Terror Old terror (“system/state terror”?)Old terror (“system/state terror”?)
Mid-eastern PLO (supported by Stasi ergo the Soviets!); nationalistic
Defined, set of political, social or economic objectives, taking credit with communiqués or explaining their actions
Marxist-Leninist movements Marxist-Leninist movements South AmericaSouth America
FARC, MRTA, SL, SandinistasFARC, MRTA, SL, Sandinistas Europe Europe
RAF, Red BrigadesRAF, Red Brigades
Nationalistic Nationalistic IRA, ETAIRA, ETA
New forms of TerrorismNew forms of Terrorism New so new (Hoffman)New so new (Hoffman)
Religious imperatives encapsulates the confluence Religious imperatives encapsulates the confluence of the adversary, motivation and rationaleof the adversary, motivation and rationale
Less cohesive organizational entitiesLess cohesive organizational entities Amorphous, religious or millenarian aimsAmorphous, religious or millenarian aims Obscure, zealous nationalist religious groups Obscure, zealous nationalist religious groups Self started, home grownSelf started, home grown
Converted from nationalistic aims to Converted from nationalistic aims to “divine-inspired”, mystical, vehemently anti-“divine-inspired”, mystical, vehemently anti-governmentgovernment
1980 – 1990/ 1990 - 20061980 – 1990/ 1990 - 2006Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 1798 4688 2030
February 1521 4941 2211
March 1622 11929 2330
April 1410 3963 1789
May 1401 4653 1929
June 1573 4751 2051
July 1816 4795 2173
August 1851 11365 2937
September 1529 7941 5373
October 1736 5812 2512
November 1670 4765 1983
December 1828 4851 2108
TOTAL 19755 74454 29426
Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 238 176 165
February 240 578 157
March 341 1060 361
April 327 1983 310
May 265 314 109
June 279 277 464
July 278 990 223
August 302 619 193
September 315 1100 447
October 315 1098 541
November 236 389 370
December 276 765 527
TOTAL 3412 9349 3867
MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND
New forms of TerrorismNew forms of Terrorism Ethical/nationalistic Ethical/nationalistic Stronger ideological reasons Stronger ideological reasons Broad based social movement, no longer close knit Broad based social movement, no longer close knit
former war veterans.former war veterans. Old Al Qaeda not entirely supersededOld Al Qaeda not entirely superseded Centralized targeting, ideological direction & Centralized targeting, ideological direction &
operational supportoperational support Emergence of autonomous, self-recruited self Emergence of autonomous, self-recruited self
starter cellsstarter cells Coalesce spontaneous plan & attack without Coalesce spontaneous plan & attack without
reference or active involvement of the global jihadreference or active involvement of the global jihad
http://www.iiss.org/publications
Is terrorism more predominant in the Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold war area?post cold war area? Predominant extremist fundamental causes are deep rooted sovereign Predominant extremist fundamental causes are deep rooted sovereign
political state issues. Terrorism in the post‑Cold War world is tied to political state issues. Terrorism in the post‑Cold War world is tied to the sovereign state system more than ever before. the sovereign state system more than ever before.
Since 1991 terrorism has always been motivated by parochial ethnic, Since 1991 terrorism has always been motivated by parochial ethnic, national, and religious loyalties than by universalism ideologies. national, and religious loyalties than by universalism ideologies. Terrorism is a international problems extending Terrorism is a international problems extending beyond sovereignty and beyond sovereignty and rooted in the sovereign state system rather than less. rooted in the sovereign state system rather than less.
Focused on creating their own revolutionary Islamic regimes rather Focused on creating their own revolutionary Islamic regimes rather then submerging them in utopian “Ummah” of the Bin Laden world. then submerging them in utopian “Ummah” of the Bin Laden world. However the Ummah concept does have its attractors. However the Ummah concept does have its attractors.
This is in sharp contrast to the Cold War years This is in sharp contrast to the Cold War years Assumption that terrorism was primarily a product of an international Assumption that terrorism was primarily a product of an international
conspiracy created by the Soviet Union to spread communism and Soviet conspiracy created by the Soviet Union to spread communism and Soviet foreign policy. That assumption was never totally accurate. foreign policy. That assumption was never totally accurate.
Cusimano, Maryann K. 2000. Beyond Sovereignty: Issues for a Global Agenda. Pp. 96-107 http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htm
CommonalitiesCommonalities
Formation of an Ideology(religious, leftist, right wing,
social, political)
First action
Statement of Intent
Terrorism/Counter terrorism mirror
Disconnect from realityPerception of wining
Denial, suppression of existence
Ignorance by government
Disconnect from realityDenial of existance
Marginalization
The State The Extremist/The terrorist
Action
Statement of Intent
Success, failure by Government to
contain movement
Increase of intensity of actions
Studying the problem(inaction)
Investigations & Actions
Reactive strategy to the threat
Blame of political opportunity
Continuing of Denial
State erodes
State collapseSystem will be replaced
State recognizes threat &adopts a proactive
CI strategy
Aggressive law & military programs
(training, international cooperation/assistance)
Loss of key leaders
Civilian casualties increase
Population favorsgovernment
Middle class, intellectuals favor
government
Direct relationship
Key incident alienatesPopular support
Security forcesachieve tactical
succes
Economical factorsimprove
Infrastructure, logistics, support is
impacted
Split within the movement
Marginalization of radical elements
Position of compromiseAdversary surrenders
or marginalized
CommonalitiesCommonalities Goals, strategies, operations, organization, Goals, strategies, operations, organization,
ideology, Target, objective, motive, ideology, Target, objective, motive, perpetrator, and legitimacy or legality of the perpetrator, and legitimacy or legality of the act. act.
Escalation of force & Trigger for violenceEscalation of force & Trigger for violence Intifada (Jewish truck driver overrun 5 Intifada (Jewish truck driver overrun 5
Palestinians); exploit situation for political aimsPalestinians); exploit situation for political aims (Aggressive) response by governments(Aggressive) response by governments
CommonalitiesCommonalities Visuals, need for expressionVisuals, need for expression
““Terrorist groups we’re dealing with, I think, are Terrorist groups we’re dealing with, I think, are bound to visuals.”bound to visuals.”
Government platitudesGovernment platitudes ““All insurgents are terrorists”All insurgents are terrorists”
Poor law enforcement Poor law enforcement Corruption (Azahari, 50,000 IDR)Corruption (Azahari, 50,000 IDR)
Lack of transparent governanceLack of transparent governance Social grievances (Thailand)Social grievances (Thailand)
Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat? "Trends in terrorism over the past 15 years "Trends in terrorism over the past 15 years
indicate that loosely linked transnational indicate that loosely linked transnational networks motivated primarily by religious networks motivated primarily by religious ideologies seeking mass casualties are ideologies seeking mass casualties are replacing more 'traditional' terrorists who replacing more 'traditional' terrorists who are motivated primarily by politics," says are motivated primarily by politics," says Jason Pate, a senior research associate at Jason Pate, a senior research associate at the Monterey Institute of International the Monterey Institute of International Studies. "These ominous trends suggest the Studies. "These ominous trends suggest the potential for mass-casualty attacks, and potential for mass-casualty attacks, and because biological agents could be used in because biological agents could be used in this fashion, the potential for mass-casualty this fashion, the potential for mass-casualty bioterrorism may be at hand."bioterrorism may be at hand."
http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1101/ijpe/pj63pate-2.htm
Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat?
Definition of mass casualties reached Definition of mass casualties reached new meaning at the 9/11 attacksnew meaning at the 9/11 attacks
Al Qaeda model, once a year but big!Al Qaeda model, once a year but big! High media impactHigh media impact High casualties High casualties Aggressive response by state to alienate Aggressive response by state to alienate
massesmasses
Mass casualties, a serious threat?Mass casualties, a serious threat? Strains the state security apparatus Strains the state security apparatus Strains response systems Strains response systems
To maintain stability and effectiveness of To maintain stability and effectiveness of medical, political and Internal Security systemsmedical, political and Internal Security systems
Objectives to weaken and collapse the state, Objectives to weaken and collapse the state, society and the will to fightsociety and the will to fight
High levels of casualties result in emotional High levels of casualties result in emotional responseresponse
Countermeasures Countermeasures
Components of Counter Terror Components of Counter Terror policypolicy Public policy & diplomacyPublic policy & diplomacy
Responsibility of political leadershipResponsibility of political leadership Political aspects of terrorismPolitical aspects of terrorism
Law enforcement & public securityLaw enforcement & public security Deals with the criminal aspects; apprehension & judiciary Deals with the criminal aspects; apprehension & judiciary
processprocess IntelligenceIntelligence
Terrorism are largely covert actionsTerrorism are largely covert actions Identify intend and prevent, apprehend or divert/foil the attackIdentify intend and prevent, apprehend or divert/foil the attack
The use of force, including covert actionThe use of force, including covert action proactive in contrast to the mainly reactive tactics of law proactive in contrast to the mainly reactive tactics of law
enforcement and public security.enforcement and public security. Conciliation Conciliation
Re-integration of former adversaries to return to society; Re-integration of former adversaries to return to society; Process of “public healing”Process of “public healing”
What counter measures we can take What counter measures we can take against the threat?against the threat?
Addressing the ideological battleAddressing the ideological battle Recognizing the strong bond within the Recognizing the strong bond within the
social cell & unit structuresocial cell & unit structure ““Zero” tolerance policy (French position)Zero” tolerance policy (French position) Countering the media advantage Countering the media advantage Denying battle space, refuge/sanctuariesDenying battle space, refuge/sanctuaries Identifying the less evidence more “gut Identifying the less evidence more “gut
feeling” is needed. Intuitive response feeling” is needed. Intuitive response
Principal StrategyPrincipal Strategy Terrorism cannot be treated as a monolithic threat. Terrorism cannot be treated as a monolithic threat. Kinetics is only one aspect. CT strategies are a means to Kinetics is only one aspect. CT strategies are a means to
the Endthe End Moreover, as much as we may wish to focus on the terror tactics Moreover, as much as we may wish to focus on the terror tactics
and terrorist means, we cannot overlook the ends. and terrorist means, we cannot overlook the ends. Policy response must incorporate understanding of Policy response must incorporate understanding of
terrorist strategyterrorist strategy Terrorist groups evolve, so must the governments responseTerrorist groups evolve, so must the governments response
Multiple response strategyMultiple response strategy Address and recognize grievance by populationAddress and recognize grievance by population Secure the population Secure the population Bolster state legitimacy, demonstrate state effectiveness regarding Bolster state legitimacy, demonstrate state effectiveness regarding
insecurity. insecurity. Build coalition if necessary cross border promote social valuesBuild coalition if necessary cross border promote social values
If history is a teacher……..If history is a teacher…….. Every successful CT strategy includedEvery successful CT strategy included
Fair and firm leadershipFair and firm leadership Clear defined policy objectivesClear defined policy objectives Homegrown political will & desire to change and Homegrown political will & desire to change and
resisting extremist forcesresisting extremist forces Unified response command, Unified response command, but but defined roles for defined roles for
Police Police IntelligenceIntelligence MilitaryMilitary Strategic IntelligenceStrategic Intelligence
I.C.A.R.U.L.S.K/ I.K.A.R.U.SI.C.A.R.U.L.S.K/ I.K.A.R.U.S IntelligenceIntelligence Community/Kinetics Community/Kinetics AuthorityAuthority Religious Religious UnconventionalUnconventional Security Security
IntelligenceIntelligence Small focused Small focused Credible & accepted field officersCredible & accepted field officers Promote an environment of trust Promote an environment of trust
Population, informers and build support basePopulation, informers and build support base Support collectionSupport collection Disseminate at tactical response level Disseminate at tactical response level Exploit at strategic levelExploit at strategic level
Abuses by the adversary Abuses by the adversary
Ideological battleIdeological battle Web mail, Internet, home made video clips, Web mail, Internet, home made video clips,
hand phone camerashand phone cameras Muaskar al-Battar (The Camp of al-Battar, Muaskar al-Battar (The Camp of al-Battar,
the name of Mohammed’s sword) the name of Mohammed’s sword) Sawt al-Jihad (The Voice of Jihad) Sawt al-Jihad (The Voice of Jihad) Total empowerment for moderate forcesTotal empowerment for moderate forces Education, education, education in schools Education, education, education in schools
on presenting the dangers of extremismon presenting the dangers of extremism
AuthorityAuthority Provide an recognized authority Provide an recognized authority Health supportHealth support Property ownershipProperty ownership Respected & responsive police Respected & responsive police Central government leadership at local Central government leadership at local
and regional leveland regional level EducationEducation
ReligionReligion Ensure religion is not hijacked by Ensure religion is not hijacked by
extremismextremism Maintain control on religious teachingsMaintain control on religious teachings Expose and exploit identified false Expose and exploit identified false
believers or preachers of hate and believers or preachers of hate and dissent dissent
Maintain close relationship between Maintain close relationship between religious groupsreligious groups
UnconventionalUnconventional Community Development ProgramsCommunity Development Programs
Sports, Children, Elderly Sports, Children, Elderly TransportationTransportation
Road conditions Road conditions Media, print and modern communicationsMedia, print and modern communications
Football game (Soviets loved German TV, Bay(be)-watch)Football game (Soviets loved German TV, Bay(be)-watch) Emergency support in case of needsEmergency support in case of needs
Water supplies, telephone, electricity, heatWater supplies, telephone, electricity, heat Direct ActionDirect Action
Use of force counter extreme violence, brutality or bestialityUse of force counter extreme violence, brutality or bestiality Human AspectHuman Aspect
CommunityCommunity Must be immediately part of the intelligence Must be immediately part of the intelligence
& combined efforts & combined efforts Listen grievances and provide sustainable Listen grievances and provide sustainable
protection protection Support basic needs (water, shelter, health)Support basic needs (water, shelter, health) Keep it simple and honestKeep it simple and honest Identify and respect customsIdentify and respect customs
Shelter, Hospitality & Retaliation tribal conceptsShelter, Hospitality & Retaliation tribal concepts
Law EnforcementLaw Enforcement ApprehensionApprehension Functioning courtFunctioning court Prison process Prison process Investigation of capital crime and Investigation of capital crime and
persecution of capital crimespersecution of capital crimes
StateState Transparent, honest and better then Transparent, honest and better then
the adversarythe adversary Economical supportive Economical supportive Defined leadership, clear, concise and Defined leadership, clear, concise and
perceived as incorruptibleperceived as incorruptible Clear political and strategic mandatesClear political and strategic mandates Supportive & educative of its citizensSupportive & educative of its citizens
but, avoid the rumor driversbut, avoid the rumor drivers
KineticsKinetics Restraint but effectiveRestraint but effective Avoid “pink misting”Avoid “pink misting”
Overly aggressive use of precision ammunitionOverly aggressive use of precision ammunition Public education of being at war means Public education of being at war means
loosing menloosing men Clear defined use of force at strategic & Clear defined use of force at strategic &
tactical leveltactical level Increase in SOF, CT forces globallyIncrease in SOF, CT forces globally
ConclusionsConclusions
If History is a teacher!If History is a teacher!
Deep rifts within the political Deep rifts within the political spectrumspectrum Fighting terrorism, what terrorism is generally is, the concept Fighting terrorism, what terrorism is generally is, the concept
of terror, strong supportof terror, strong support The interventions in Iraq strong diverse views & increasingly The interventions in Iraq strong diverse views & increasingly
less supportedless supported Afghanistan morally supported, the aim, goals & adversary Afghanistan morally supported, the aim, goals & adversary
are clear! are clear! Fear of increasing governance influencing civil liberties Fear of increasing governance influencing civil liberties
under the mantle “fighting terrorism”under the mantle “fighting terrorism” Clash of civilization is feared dividing societiesClash of civilization is feared dividing societies Bilateral relationship are not exploited enoughBilateral relationship are not exploited enough Terrorism broad stroked with war is unlikely providing a Terrorism broad stroked with war is unlikely providing a
solution. solution.
References & PerspectivesReferences & Perspectives Hamas in its own words Hamas in its own words http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Terrorism/Hamas1.htmlhttp://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Terrorism/Hamas1.html Cyber terrorism http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19980923S0016Cyber terrorism http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB19980923S0016 http://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htmhttp://www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles/counteringterrorism.htm James Ashcroft, James Ashcroft, Making A Killing, Making A Killing, Virgin Books, pg. 215Virgin Books, pg. 215 http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1101/ijpe/pj63pate-2.htm Cusimano, Maryann K. 2000. Beyond Sovereignty: Issues for a Global
Agenda. Pp. 96-107 http://www.iiss.org/publications MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.html http://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htmhttp://www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggle/terrorism/index.htm http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.htmlhttp://www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/definitions.html http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdfhttp://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5FLCCX/$File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdf http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74/
A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3BA728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3B http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/hob01/
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