SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2

Lubëck Octobre 2003

Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY

Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2

A freight transportation simulation modelA freight transportation simulation model

An emission permit policy analysis toolAn emission permit policy analysis tool

2http://www.kbs-simulation.com

SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2

To model To apply To convince

To modelTo model

Simtrans (developed in 1999-2000)

An attempt to analyze the dynamics of the freight transportation market in France (Road, Rail, Inland waterways)

Funded as a Research Program

To applyTo apply

SimTrans-Co2 (2001-2002)

Explore the consequences of the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system

Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)

To convinceTo convince

Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses

To modelTo model

Simtrans is focused on land transportation and modal split

3 sectorsRoadRailInland Waterways

To modelTo model

A Modal supply is a combination ofMeans (Capacity)ProductivityQuality

To modelTo modelMeans (Capacity)Means (Capacity)

ProductivityProductivity

QualityQuality

truck capacity

road transport possibilities

road transport quality

rate of investment truck capacity obsolescence

~rate of interest

demand supply ratio

road transport productivity

productivity rate of change

quality rate of change

demand supply ratio

road transport conformity rate

merchandise damage rate

trucking average speed

road transport commercial offer

road transport margin

investment in road transport

obsolescence

road transport industrialization

Co2 constraint

~cost increase

average unit load

To modelTo model

Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness

Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels

To modelTo model

AgriculturalAgriculturalproductsproducts

MetallurgicalMetallurgicalproductsproducts

GlobalGlobaldemanddemand

FoodFood

ConstructionConstructionmaterialsmaterials

OtherOtherproductsproducts

Chemicals &Chemicals &FertilizersFertilizers

EnergyEnergycomponentscomponents

General menuGeneral menu

Demand menuDemand menu

To applyTo apply

Simtrans + + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol

To applyTo apply

The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming

In EU, the transportation sector is to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2

CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010

Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.

To applyTo apply

SimTrans-Co2 explores a C02 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)

To applyTo apply

Fuel consumptionFuel consumptionProductivityProductivity CapacityCapacity

Unit fuelUnit fuelconsumptionconsumption

InvestmentInvestment

Emission regulationsEmission regulationsand normsand norms

Co2 emittedCo2 emitted

NegociableNegociableemission permitsemission permits

TaxationTaxation

Warming effectWarming effectpolicypolicy

Fuel unitFuel unitcostcost

++++++

Simplified causal diagram of Simplified causal diagram of Co2 and Emission Permit aCo2 and Emission Permit a

Co2 Emission (ton)

Emission trading has no impactEmission trading has no impact

To applyTo apply

2003 2009 2014 202020 000 000

30 000 000

40 000 000

1. No action

2. Emission credit

3. Gobal policy package

To convinceTo convinceFeedback loop analysisFeedback loop analysis

Sector GrowthSector Growth

DemandDemandSupply/DemandSupply/Demandratioratio

Freight km offeredFreight km offered

CO2CO2

WarmingWarmingEffectEffectpolicypolicy

TaxationTaxation

NegociableNegociableEmission PermitsEmission Permits

Unit consumptionUnit consumption

Fuel consumptionFuel consumption

Fuel unit costFuel unit costAverage unitAverage unit

costcost

Labor unit costLabor unit cost

Unit marginUnit margin

Desired unitDesired unitmarginmargin

Average unitAverage unitpriceprice

SupplySupply

TransportTransport

CapacityCapacity

Average unitAverage unitloadload

Total authorizedTotal authorizedweightweight

Veh-KmVeh-Km

CongestionCongestion

RapidityRapidity

Max speedMax speed

InfrastructuresInfrastructures

Other supplyOther supplysourcessources ++

EmissionEmissionRegulations andRegulations and

normsnorms++ ----

CO2CO2

TaxationTaxation

costcost

SupplySupply

TransportTransport

CapacityCapacity

Veh-KmVeh-Km

RapidityRapidity

Max speedMax speed

normsnorms++ ----

CO2CO2

TaxationTaxation

costcost

SupplySupply

TransportTransport

CapacityCapacity

Veh-KmVeh-Km

RapidityRapidity

Max speedMax speed

normsnorms++ ----

CO2CO2

TaxationTaxation

costcost

SupplySupply

TransportTransport

CapacityCapacity

Veh-KmVeh-Km

RapidityRapidity

Max speedMax speed

normsnorms++ ----

CO2CO2

TaxationTaxation

costcost

SupplySupply

TransportTransport

CapacityCapacity

Veh-KmVeh-Km

RapidityRapidity

Max speedMax speed

normsnorms++ ----

SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2

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