1. 2030 : Building the Futures of Seoul, Prospects and Policy Agendas in the Context of Spatial Evolution2012

2. . 3. 1. 1) , , . , . . . , , . 20 . (Driving Forces) .2) 2030 2 2 . . , , 2 . . (1) 20 , i 4. , , , , . . , . , , (FTA) . (2) , , (3) 1. 2030, ? ? ? 2. 2030, 3 ? ? 3. 2030, ? ? (4) ( ) ( ) , , ii 5. / () 2. 2030, 1) ? , , . 1970 , 3 . 2007 . . , , . iii 6. , , ? , ? ? ? , ? , ? , ?2) 2030, . , . 2030 2027, 2031 (2.36/) 1 2 (3.4%/)J(U)-turn ( ), (U-turn)1 2 , , , (J-turn ) 2027 100 ( 10%) iv 7. J-turn, U-turn , 2030 30 , , . . //20 . . , , , .v 8. , . . . , , . , . 15~20 15~20 . , . 3) , . . . vi 9. . , , . . . . . , . . , , . , , . , , , , , , .2. 2030, 1) , , . . 3 . . , vii 10. .2) 2030, , . , . 3 (, , ) 2 5(++) . , . -, - 2 . , 3 2 . 3 2 5 . - . 2030, ()viii 11. . , , , 2030 . , . , 2030 . . ix 12. 3) 2 5 . (Destination) , , , , . profile A, B, C . -, - , . , , x 13. . . 3 . , , R&D, , . .3. 2030, 1) . , , , . , (89.6%) . . . 31.3% OECD 15.8% (2008). (29%), (21%), (22%) . ? ? . IMF ? ? ? .xi 14. 2) 2030, 12 , , , . . . , , . , , . . . . , , , .xii 15. . . SPA . , . .3) . . , , . . , , .xiii 16. SSM SSM . . SSM . SSM Win-Win .xiv 17. 1 3 1 3 1. 3 2. 4 2 4 1. 4 2. 6 3. 7 2 (Turning Points) 11 1 11 1. 11 2. 14 3. 16 2 16 1. 16 2. 17 3. 17 3 18 1. 18 2. 19 3. 20 4. 21 3 2030, 25 1 25 2 (1970~2010) 26 1. 26 2. (1970~2010) 28 18. 3 32 1. 33 2. 34 3. 36 4 (Driving Forces) 36 1. 1 38 2. 2 38 3. 3 41 4. 1 , 42 5. 2 44 6. 3 44 7. , , 45 8. 46 5 46 1. 47 2. 50 6 , 52 1. , 52 2. 58 4 2030, 63 1 63 2 64 1. 3 64 2. (1960~2010) 66 3. 67 4. 73 5. 74 19. 3 75 1. 75 2. 77 4 79 1. (critical mass) 79 2. 81 3. 84 5 92 1. (STEEP) 92 2. 93 6 , 105 1. , 105 2. 108 5 2030, 113 1 113 2 114 1. 114 2. 116 3 (1997~2010) 118 1. GRDP 118 2. 119 4 126 1. 1 2 126 2. 127 3. 128 4. 129 20. 5 , 130 1. , 130 2. 135 139 21. < 2-1> (20052030) 11 < 2-2> (1996~2009) 12 < 2-3> (1985~2005) 12 < 2-4> 1990, 2010, 2030 (//) 13 < 2-5> (20052030) 14 < 2-6> (1990~2030) 15 < 2-7> 1 2 (1990~2030) 15 < 2-8> 1 2 (1985~2005) 15 < 2-9> (1990~2020) 18 < 2-10> (2005~2020) 19 < 2-11> (2005~2020) 19 < 2-12> 20 < 2-13> 21 < 2-14> PIR RIR 22 < 2-15> PIR 22 < 3-1> (1990, 2000, 2010) 29 < 3-2> 29 < 3-3> 30 < 3-4> 31 < 3-5> (2010) 48 < 3-6> (2010) 49 < 3-7> (2010) 51 < 3-8> (2010) 51 < 3-9> 53 < 4-1> 64 < 4-2> 66 < 4-3> (1981~2001) 69 < 4-4> 71 22. < 4-5> 72 < 4-6> 76 < 4-7> 87 < 4-8> 87 < 4-9> 88 < 4-10> Key tenant 88 < 4-11> () 89 < 4-12> 90 < 4-13> (2009) 91 < 4-14> 96 < 4-15> , 98 < 4-16> , 99 < 4-17> 100 < 4-18> 100 < 4-19> 101 < 4-20> 102 < 5-1> (2010) 115 < 5-2> (1997~2010) 118 < 5-3> , , (1997~2010) 119 < 5-4> 123 23. < 2-1> (1985) 13 < 2-2> (2005) 13 < 2-3> 21 < 3-1> (2010) 26 < 3-2> 28 < 3-3> 30 < 3-4> 31 < 3-5> 32 < 3-6> 32 < 3-7> (1960~2010) 33 < 3-8> 34 < 3-9> 35 < 3-10> 35 < 3-11> 37 < 3-12> (STEEPV) 37 < 3-13> 2010(), 2040() 38 < 3-14> 40 < 3-15> (1996~2011) 42 < 3-16> 100 42 < 3-17> 5 43 < 3-18> 43 < 3-19> 44 < 3-20> () 45 < 3-21> 45 < 3-22> 47 < 3-23> (2030) 49 < 3-24> (2030) 50 < 3-25> (2030) 52 24. < 3-26> 54 < 3-27> 55 < 3-28> 55 < 4-1> (2009) 65 < 4-2> (2010) 65 < 4-3> (2005~2010) 65 < 4-4> 67 < 4-5> (1975~1990) 68 < 4-6> (1981~1995) 68 < 4-7> (1981~2001, ) 69 < 4-8> (1993) 70 < 4-9> (2000) 70 < 4-10> (2006) 70 < 4-11> (1999~2012) 72 < 4-12> 3000 73 < 4-13> () 75 < 4-14> (1998~2012) 76 < 4-15> 3vs (1960~2010) 77 < 4-16> (1975~2030) 77 < 4-17> GRDP (2000~2010) 78 < 4-18>vs (1993~2006) 78 < 4-19>(), () 79 < 4-20> (2000~2009) 80 < 4-21> (2000~2009) 81 < 4-22> (2009) 82 < 4-23> (2009) 82 < 4-24> (2009) 83 < 4-25> (2009) 83 25. < 4-26> (2009) 84 < 4-27> 15 , 15% (2009) 85 < 4-28> 86 < 4-29> (2009) 90 < 4-30> (2009) 91 < 4-31> 92 < 4-32> (STEEP) 93 < 4-33> (1993~2006) 93 < 4-34> (1993~2006) 94 < 4-35> 3 vs 2000~2009 95 < 4-36> vs 2000~2009 95 < 4-37> (1994~2010) 97 < 4-38> (1994~2010) 97 < 4-39> 97 < 4-40> (1985~2010) 98 < 4-41> 99 < 4-42> 100 < 4-43> 101 < 4-44> (2006) 102 < 4-45> 103 < 4-46> 106 < 4-47> 107 < 4-48> 2030, () 107 < 5-1> (2010) 114 < 5-2> (2010) 115 < 5-3> (2010) 116 < 5-4> 117 < 5-5> 118 26. < 5-6> 119 < 5-7> 120 < 5-8> 120 < 5-9> 120 < 5-10> SSM 120 < 5-11> 121 < 5-12> 122 < 5-13> 122 < 5-14> 123 < 5-15> (B2C, C2C) (2001~2011) 124 < 5-16> 124 < 5-17> 125 < 5-18> 125 < 5-19> (STEEPV) 126 < 5-20> 129 < 5-21> 130 < 5-22> 132 < 5-23> 132 < 5-24> 134 27. 1 1 1 2 28. 1 1 1. 1) , , , . , . , , , .2) . , , , .3) 100 , , , , .1 3 29. 2. 20 . (Driving Forces) . .2 1. 2030 2 2 . . 3 . 1. 20:80 ? ? 2. , ? ? ? ? 3. ? ? , , 2 . .4 2030 30. (1) , (2) 20 . , . , , . , . . , . , . . , . , (FTA) . , . (3) 1. 2030, ? ? ?1 5 31. 2. 2030, 3 ? ? 3. 2030, ? ?2. (1) 3 , . (, , , ) . , , , . (Driving Forces) . . . . , . . (2) STEP 1. STEP 2. STEP 3. STEP 4. / 6 2030 32. 3. ( ) ( ) , , / ? ? ? 3 ? ? ? ? / / ()1 7 33. (Key Driving Forces), , [ ] (2011.11.10, , ) (2012.9.12, , ) [ ] (6) 1 (2011.11.17) - (), ( ) - (), (), (), 2 (2012.4.4) - (), ( ) - (), , (), (2012.4.12) - (), ( ) - (PMC), (), (2012.5.30) - (), ( ) - (), (), (ING REIM), 3 (2012.9.11) - ( ) - (), (), (), (), (2012.9.14) - ( ) - (), (), (), (), 8 2030 34. 2 (Turning Points) 2 ( T u r n i n g1 3 ) :2 P o i n t s 35. 2 (Turning Points) 1 1. 2018 , 1) (, 2011) 2020 , 5 . . 2005 48,138 2018 2030 49,220 . 2005 23,202 2030 27,150, 48.2% 55.2% . 2005 10,011 2030 9,777 . < 2-1> (20052030) ()*2005 10,011,324 2,578,356 10,612,455 23,202,135 48,138,077 48,138,0772010 9,987,759 2,691,484 11,612,274 24,291,517 49,003,028 48,874,539() 2015 9,964,284 2,748,165 12,513,905 25,226,354 49,475,968 49,277,0942020 9,947,958 2,760,438 13,323,454 26,031,850 49,704,783 49,325,6892025 9,903,843 2,732,958 14,056,993 26,693,794 49,624,749 49,107,9492030 9,777,642 2,670,736 14,702,091 27,150,469 49,220,576 48,634,571* (2007a) . (, 2011)2 (Turning Points) 11 36. 2) . . < 2-2> (1996~2009) (, %) 1996199820002002200420052006200720082009691,226634,790634,501492,111472,761435,031448,153493,189465,892445,2001.571.451.471.171.151.081.121.251.191.15, , KOSIS, .< 2-3> (1985~2005) (%) 1985199019952000200525~2918.422.129.639.759.130~344.35.36.710.51935~391.62.43.34.17.6, KOSIS, .3) . (25~49) 2007 , 15~64 2016 . 1) 2005 39.4 2016 36.3 , 2030 55.4 . . 30 1985 2005 , 30 . 19852005 029 , 19952005 039 . 40 .1) = (0~14 + 65 ) / (15~64)12 2030 37. , , KOSIS, 1985< 2-1> (1985), , KOSIS, 2005< 2-2> (2005)1990 15~35 , 2010 35~55 2030 55 75 . < 2-4> 1990, 2010, 2030 (//) 199020102030 ( ) 55-63 , () 65 .2 (Turning Points) 13 38. 4) 65 2009 9% 2019 14% , 2027 20.6% . 65 2010 9.4% 94 2030 210 22.3% . , 2020 . 65 13.4% , 45~54 30.7% . , . , .2. , 2025 1) (, 2011) .2) 2025 , . < 2-5> (20052030) () ()*2005 3,338,744 830,613 3,342,398 7,511,755 15,971,010 15,971,0102010 3,559,294 930,113 3,958,523 8,447,930 17,459,196 17,152,2772015 3,774,787 1,020,307 4,597,200 9,392,294 19,009,922 18,191,6632020 3,917,454 1,074,389 5,153,557 10,145,400 20,096,214 19,011,8152025 4,041,044 1,114,798 5,720,497 10,876,339 21,093,138 19,593,7672030 4,036,326 1,112,140 6,129,623 11,278,089 21,398,230 19,871,144* (2007a) .2) 2005~2010 9.3%, 2010~2015 8.9%, 2015~2020 5.7%, 2020~2025 5.0%, 2025~2030 1.4% . 30(2010), 150 (2030) . ( , 2011, )14 2030 39. 2) 2010 2.8 2030 2.35 . < 2-6> (1990~2030) () 199019953.6820003.3720053.122.88201020152.752.60202020252.4920302.412.35, KOSIS, .3) 1 2 12 2030 51.4% . 1 2010 20.8% 2030 24.9% . 1 . < 2-7> 1 2 (1990~2030) (, %) 1 1 2199019952000200520102015202020252030257382502676744805872928972(9.1%)(12.9)(16.3)(20.4)(20.8)(21.4)(22.4)(23.5)(24.9)5888081,0271,3461,5021,6441,7961,9262,010(20.9)(27.3)(33.3)(40.7)(42.1)(43.8)(46.2)(48.9)(51.4)1990~2005 , 2010~2030 , KOSIS, .< 2-8> 1 2 (1985~2005) (, %) 1985 11995 2156 (6.7) 22 (6.5) 82 (7.0)1 266 (11.4) 39 (11.6) 150 (12.9)2005 2382 (12.9) 68 (10.3) 230 (10.6)1 426 (14.4) 92 (13.9) 321 (14.8)2 676 (20.4) 142 (17.2) 563 (16.9)670 (20.3) 160 (19.4) 647 (19.4) (, 2011) . , , , .2 (Turning Points) 15 40. 3. , , , . , , 20, 1 . 2005 , 25~45, , , . 2000 , 2005 . 25 , 1 , , 40 . 55 , 2~3 (, +) , . 1 .2 1. 10, 5 2030 10, 5 . GDP() 2009 9,570 2030 2 4,000/10( )~2 6,450() . 1 GDP 2009 1 9,800() 2030 4 4,000(Vision 2030)~5 4,000() . 2030 1 GDP 5 30 . GRDP() 2008 481 2020 800 (2008, ), 1 GRDP 2005 17,617 2020 3 (2005 US 3 931) (2005, ). 16 2030 41. , 2030 (2010) 1 GRDP 2010 2 3,000 2030 5 . (Decoupling Point) 10,000~15,000 , 1 (decoupling point) . ( ; Inglehart, 1996).2. . KDI , 1996 68.5% 2000 58.5% 10% , 7% . 2000 67.8% 2008 59.4% , 10.9% 16.6% . 2000~2008 (Wolfson3) ER4)) . 2003 , 2003 1/4 2006 3/4 . , 2008 4/4 ER 0.0259, 0.0255 .3. 1 3) , , . . 4) .2 (Turning Points) 17 42. ( , 2009). 1993~ 2006 14.4% , 3.35% . 80.0% . , ( , 2010). 1998 , , , , 2008 , , . 20% . , . 864.4% , 630.8% , . , , . .3 1. 2020 95% 2020 , 2010 92.7% 2020 95% . 2007 . 2020 67 95% . , 100% . < 2-9> (1990~2020) (%) 199019952000200520102015202056.866.477.493.792.792.195.01990~2005 , 2010 . , ; , 2010; , 2010 , 2010.12; , , 2007.18 2030 43. 2010 328.6 2020 369.1 . < 2-10> (2005~2020) () 20052006200720082009201020152020309.9314.5316.4322.1324.6328.6342.0369.1 2010 . , ; , 2010 , 2010.12; , , 20062. , . . 2005 80% ( , 2010). 2020 , 2005~2009 2020 29~30%, 50~51%, 19~20% . < 2-11> (2005~2020) (, %) 200520062007200820092010*2020 ( )3,102,4043,151,2683,172,5063,231,7073,257,7363,399,7733,657.0/39.9% (1,236,312)39.1% (1,232,343)38.6% (1,225,171)37.6% (1,216,693)37.1% (1,209,551)37.7% (1,280,138)29~30%40.6% (1,258,658)41.5% (1,307,113)41.9% (1,330,658)42.7% (1,381,252)43.2% (1,407,114)43.7% (1,485,869)50~51%19.6% (577,379)19.4% (581,757)19.4% (586,621)19.6% (603,707)19.7% (611,034)18.6% (609,331)19~20%100%100%100%100%100%100%/ . , 2011 . , , , , . 2 (Turning Points) 19 44. . 1,893,352~1,907,760 . , , 1,893,352~1,907,760 , 191,977, 1,701,374~1,175,783 . 2020 722,294~984,885 . 95,376~122,976, 626,918~861,909 .3. , 2008 . 42.9%, 38.7%, 16.0% . . < 2-12> (, %) / 123456789102953535094844882,246(34.0%)(34.3%)(37.5%)(48.0%)(64.4%)(42.9%)2334056584532292,029(26.8%)(39.3%)(48.4%)(44.9%)(30.2%)(38.7%)3202491605627837(36.9%)(24.2%)(11.8%)(5.6%)(3.6%)(16.0%)2023321514127(2.3%)(2.2%)(2.4%)(1.5%)(1.8%)(2.4%)8681,0301,3591,0087585,239(100%)(100%)(100%)(100%)(100%)(100%) . , 2008 (); 2020. , . .20 2030 45. < 2-13> (, %) 19901995200020052010 2020 38.039.740.944.647.052.040.343.841.233.228.018.019.615.016.320.523.030.0, 2010 ; 2020 < 2-3> 4. 2008 9.7, 26.1 . , . 2008 (PIR) 9.7%. , 5 (RIR) 20% .5) , , 5) RIR 25% , 20% (, 2020)2 (Turning Points) 21 46. , 32.7% 6). , . 2011 9 49.9%, 51.9% .7) 2009 1 . , . < 2-14> PIRRIR 1~23~45~67~89~10 (PIR)25.914.29.38.38.39.7 (RIR)41.925.122.922.027.426.1 , 2008 (); 2020 .< 2-15> PIR LAPIR9.74.85.86.97.07.2 2008(), 2010 6) 1000 370 7) http://realestate.joinsmsn.com/news/read.asp?pno=98405&ref=naver22 2030 47. 3 2030 , 3 2 0 3 0, 1 2 (1970~2010) 3 4 (Driving Forces) 5 6 , 48. 3 2030, 1 20 , (Driving Forces) . , . . , , . , . . , . . , . . , . . 5 .3 2030, 25 49. , ? , , ? , ? , ? , , ?2 (1970~2010) 1. 2010 308.8 605.96 51% . 40% , 85% . .< 3-1> (2010)26 2030 50. . . , . < 3-2> . 1960 245 1970 543, 1990 1,061 . 1970~1990 26 . . 1962 , 1970 . (72), (80), 200 (89~92) . , , . 1990 . , . 1990 3.68 (2010 2.75/), , . 10 (99), (99) , , , , , 1 . 2011 58 5,031, 41 8), , , , 10 2 ( 61, 158). , 5 27, 72 . 2000 , . 8) , 2011.3 2030, 27 51. . , , . , 2010 96.7% . , , . , , . , . , .< 3-2> 2. (1970~2010) 40 , , . , 28 2030 52. . 1990 58% 2000 77%, 2010 97% . 1990 34.4% 2010 10.6% 9), 2005 19.1% 2010 11.7% .10) < 3-1> (1990, 2000, 2010) (%) 19902000201057.777.496.7 (97.0)2020, ( ) < 3-2> ( , %) 1995200020052010446(34.4%)334(23.4%)206(13.0%)184(10.6%) , 2010 41.1% 1990 . 51.3%, 71%, 66.4%, 61.2%, 54.1% 60% . . 2002 102 2011 146 5% . 2006 7.3 2009 14 . (OECD 11.5%, EU 13%) , . 10 .9) 3~4 , 2011, . 10) 2020 , 2011, .3 2030, 29 53. < 3-3> () /198540.8%949,388856,130456,89661,805199038.0%1,070,9511,135,344551,33257,218199539.7%1,178,8931,300,169444,72242,010200040.9%1,263,3571,271,330502,62348,626200544.6%1,475,8481,100,175679,98053,887201041.1%1,439,3381,152,714862,87049,375* , , , .< 3-3> , , , , / , . 1980 19% 2010 57% , 71%, 99% .11) , , . , .11) , , 2011, .30 2030 54. , , , , (http://cafe.naver.com/jamsilforum)< 3-4> . , . , . , . . < 3-4> 1980199020002010 100%100%100%100% 98.7%99.3%98.9%96.2%/69.8%45.7%25.3%15.6%18.8%34.9%50.3%56.7%7.0%12.6%11.1%5.5%3.4%9.1%17.4%3.2%2.7%3.1%0.9%1.3%0.7%1.1%3.8% / -* , .3 2030, 31 55. < 3-5> , 12 . 1990 , , 1 , 2000 , , 2 .< 3-6> 3 . . (Driving Forces) ? 32 2030 56. ? . , , .1. , . 1970 543 1990 1,061 2010 9,794,304 . , 1970 1990 26 . 1990 . 1970 1,096,871 2010 3,577,497 6.1% .< 3-7> (1960~2010), 1970 34 1990 98 2, 2008 398 2 . .3 2030, 33 57. < 3-8> , 1 (1955~1963 ) , . 2010 153 14.6% . 40 12), 1 1990 . .2. . 1986 2010 90 , 7.5% . 3 3.25%(2010 ) 1 4.38%(2011) .12) , , 2011, SUNDAY 245.34 2030 58. * 1986 100 * , 15 (2010) < 3-9> . , 2003~2009 2 . 39% , 9% , .13)* = 60 / 60 * ( Issue Report, 2009)< 3-10> 13) , 2009, Issue Report ; , , 2, 2009 9 8 .3 2030, 35 59. 3. . , . 1973 . , . , 1988~1992 200 . , . 1995 (2002), (2005) , , .4 (Driving Forces) ? , , . 1970 , . 2007 . , . , , . .36 2030 60. , , ? , ? ? ? , ? , ?< 3-11> (Society), (Economy), (Value), (Technology) (Environment) , (Politics) STEEPV . < 3-12> .< 3-12> (STEEPV) 3 2030, 37 61. 1. 1 (, 2012) , 2027 1,022, 2031 2,670 . , . , 15~64 , 2010 37.3 2040 51.3 14 . , 1 . 2025 2 , . , 35~54 . 2010 849 2030 771 . , 2012.< 3-13> 2010(), 2040() , , 2010 46.7% 12 2030 61.1% 247 . 2027 100 10% .2. 2 . , , , 1238 2030 62. , , . .1) ( ) . . 2010 308.6 201.6 65.3% . 1~4 . , . . 30~40 .2) (1955~1963) . 153 14.6% , 2010~2018 128 . , . 85% , , , , .3) 1 2 12 , , . 2010 1 74 , 12 164 . 12 2000 33.3% 2010 46.7%, 2030 61.1% 247 3 . , .3 2030, 39 63. 4) , . 2000 9.2 2010 26.3 . . 2015~2027 100 10% . .5) ( ) . . .6) . , . , .< 3-14> 40 2030 64. . , , 12, . , , ( J-Turn ). , U-Turn .3. 3 14) 12(2000~2012) , 60 67 7 (2011 11 ). 20 (15~24) , . 1 2 . , . 0~14, 25~34, 55 . , 2~3 . , . , 153(96~05) . -, . .14) ( , 2007) ; 2000~2010 .3 2030, 41 65. < 3-15> (1996-2011), 1996~2005 , 2007< 3-16> 1004. 1 , , , . 2009 3.9% 42 2030 66. 15.1% 3~4 . 24, 5% , .15) 34.2% . . . 2011 801 3,952, GDP 81% . OECD 73% .16) 56.2%, 66.9%, 10,962 .17) 2000 67.8% 2008 59.4% , 10.9% 16.6% . 2000~2008 (Wolfson18) ER19)) . .SDI, 2010 , 2010< 3-18> < 3-17> 5 15) (, 2009) 16) , 2012, . 17) , 2011. 18) , , . . 19) 3 2030, 43 67. 5. 2 ( ) 2007 9.71% 2011 10.15% . 1 16.45% 2003 . (PIR) 9.7, (RIR) 26.1 . . 2012 (LTV) 48.5%, (DTI) 45.1% . , .6. 3 . . 2007 12% .%, 12 , . (, 2008), 40(, 2007). ( , 2010)< 3-19> 44 2030 68. , 12 . , 2008 6% , 11% . 2007 . . (, 2011)KB , . , 2012. < 3-21> < 3-20> ()7. , , (GTX) . 2016 1 . , . . . 20123 2030, 45 69. 2015 . 1 25 . , , . 12 . , . , .8. . , , 12 , , . , 2000 . , .5 . , /46 2030 70. , /, , . . 4 , , , , , . (2.5), (3.6), (, 2.59 ) 19 .< 3-22> 1. 1) / 2010 16.4 30 77%. . 118, 43% . 2010 75.2 9% . , , , 7 2 , (17%) (21%) .3 2030, 47 71. < 3-5> (2010) 2010 * ( ) / / 163,590, 30 77% , (117.8, 43.0%, 42.9%) // 752,319, 30 9% , , , 7 2 (162.6 / 16.6% / 21.0%) 20 2030 95% 30 . 82% . . . . , . , . , , , .48 2030 72. < 3-23> (2030)2) / 2010 7.5 , 71% 30 . , , . 77, 30 7% . 183, 6%, 10% . < 3-6> (2010) 2010 * ( ) / / 74,621, 30 71% , , (152.0 / 21.2% / 22.8%) // 770,211, 30 7% , , , (183.2 / 6.1% / 10.8%)3 2030, 49 73. 2030 , 30 95%, 2010 7% 74% . . , . . . . , 12 , . .< 3-24> (2030)2. 1) 15 44.7% 64.2 1980 40 10.8% . 5 , 5% . , , , . 50 2030 74. < 3-7> (2010) 2010 641,981( 44.7%) 5 , , , 5.4% (71,045), 6~10, 4.9%(64,413) 1980 10.8% (15 ) , 2009 12 .2) 15 79 55.3% . 20 27.8 21% . 1990 . , , , , . < 3-8> (2010) (15 )2010 794,678( 55.3%) , , * 16~20 20.5%(271,424), 21 21%(277,643) 1980 1.7% , 2009 12 .2030 , 5 40 , 5% . . , . 2030 40 22% . 1990 3 2030, 51 75. . . .< 3-25> (2030)6 , 20 . . , . .1. , 1) 2030 2027, 2031 , . 52 2030 76. 2030 . 2.36 12 3.4% . , , . , . , . U-turn , 12 , , , J-turn . , 2027 100 . 2030 . < 3-9> 2027, 2031 (2.36/) 1 2 (3.4%/)J(U)-turn ( ), (U-turn) ; 1 2 , , , (J-turn ) 2027 100 ( 10%)2) , . . , , , . , .3 2030, 53 77. < 3-26> 3) . , , IT . , . 1 85% , (House poor) . , . . . . 5% . , .54 2030 78. < 3-27> 4) J-turn, U-turn , (Yuppies; Young, Urban, Professionals) U-turn 12 , , Dink(Double Income No Kids) J-turn . . .< 3-28> 3 2030, 55 79. 5) , , . , 2030 30 . . . // 20 . . . . , . , . , . . . , . . , , .56 2030 80. 6) , , . , . , . , , . , . IT , . Adaptive Office, One Card System . . . . , , .7) 15~20 2030, , 15~20 . , , , .3 2030, 57 81. 2. 1) , . . , . .2) , , , . 12 , , , , . . , .3) 2030 . . , . .58 2030 82. 4) , . . , , .5) , , . , , , , . , , , .3 2030, 59 83. 4 2030 , 4 2 0 3 0, 1 2 3 4 5 6 , 84. 4 2030, 1 , , . . . . , 3 . , . , , . 4 . . , 4 2030, 63 85. . , .2 1. 3 . , , 3 . , , , , , , . , (84), (64~66), (74~75), , (70~73), , (94~96)20) . 2009 , (77,582), 1(54,429), (44,947), 1234(35,951), (34,490) , , , 3 . 424 1 20, 18 3 . < 4-1> () () (%)588,148209,07535.5%488,975185,69238.0%1,152,306389,33033.8%1,947,907428,41522.0%4,177,3361,212,51229.0%20) 2009 .64 2030 86. < 4-1> (2009)2005~2010 , 1,108,922.47, 2.48% . 100,000 10 . 3 8 573,146.96 , 1.95% 100,000 5~6 .< 4-2> (2010)< 4-3> (2005~2010)4 2030, 65 87. 2005~2010 . , . . . , . < 4-2> () LG 3 2 1 2 2008.02 ~ 2011.01 ( ) 2008.01 ~ 2009.11 ( ) 2010.09 ~ 2011.12 2010.9~2013 12 1 (2 , 300 ) 1969 1966 1995 2. (1960~2010) 1980 . , , 1970 1990 -- 3 . .66 2030 88. < 4-4> 3 . , , , , .3. 1) . , . 1975~1990 . 1975 6,889,440 1990 10,612,577 , 2.9% . . 1975 4,038,973 1990 7,931,551 4.6% .4 2030, 67 89. < 4-5> (1975~1990) . 1981 2,378,723 1995 3,874,597 3.5% . 1981 931,307 1995 2,801,466 8.2% .< 4-6> (1981~1995)2) 3 1990 2 3 . 2 1981 725,132 1991 1,136,899 2001 599,837 , 1990 . 3 198168 2030 90. 1,243,677, 1991 2,200,564, 2001 3,162,419 . 2 1981 1991 34.0% 2001 15.9% . 3 1991 65.8% 2001 84.0% 3 . < 4-3> (1981~2001) () 12 (%)312319812,015725,1321,243,6771,970,8240.1%36.8%63.1%100.0%19916,0631,136,8992,200,5643,343,5260.2%34.0%65.8%100.0%20011,538599,8373,162,4193,763,7940.0%15.9%84.0%100.0%, ; 2020 .< 4-7> (1981~2001, )3) 1993~2006 , . . , 50 , .21) 21) , (2020 , 2009, ).4 2030, 69 91. < 4-8> (1993)< 4-9> (2000)< 4-10> (2006)70 2030 92. * 22) . 2000 36 2012 650 . , , 2003 .< 4-4> () () 1 2 36,510,8531,560,726863,1282,231,512811,973476,734566,7692000 360,16163,0543,57028,4309,286118,648137,173200046,432--27,672--18,7592001146,5212002 2003 ()11,51943,537197,96546,348-405,426262,90119,1902004650,272189,9592005993,345200663,669 -27,797-101,96927,54814,2717,82050,73141,7451,75229,10668,011357,4353,59326,9484,326558,236160,247223,62516,41134,825-253,96639,70262,24432,09152,28655,7832007735,88397,66831,850182,954423,411--2008466,22043,02358,106232,683--132,407-119,53711,8612009655,57425,43894,395355,37460,8302010833,86664,719321,978256,84837,260153,0612011250,138106,929-48,85729,05933,96531,3272012515,08451,230-269,174110,5449,68474,453- 2002, 2009~2010 100 , 2000 30 2012 513 . , , 41% .4 2030, 71 93. < 4-5> () () () 5,127,2102000 303,7542000132,977200185,4272002119,068 410,233 -- 216,0891,298,1761,467,7072,145,70461,06764,03313,227165,42756,125 -2,868 10,577 --36,55637,4287,17115,61852,0608,73271,06239,27467,910652,53193,07417,47048,8592003878,51422,66142,3382004204,08686,49751,2602005197,67829,152-19,83050,12098,5762006364,647115,888-114,35611,435122,9672007138,339--2008509,3232009337,039--29,52037,576269,9432010791,390--153,693321,934315,7642011664,389-47,979456,0032012400,579--314,29599,910--62,633 -59,46016,246180,718228,695- -< 4-11> (1999~2012)22) ( , ) ; 11472 2030 571,107 86,284 94. 4. 3 . , . 500 . (1970), (1976), , , (1983), (1984), (1993) . , (1975) (1980), (1982), (1991) (1979) , (1979) . (1985), (1987) . . 2000 3000 (1986), (1987), (1988) , COEX, , .* , 2004< 4-12> 3000 4 2030, 73 95. 5. , ( 2005). . . 1973 , , , 1/2, / 56 . (1966), 7.4(1972), (1986), (1988) . 1969 12 , 400 . 1971 , (1968) - . , , , . 1963 268 605 1966 , 1967 / 1971 . 1970 . 1972 , 1975 , 1975 112 . 1978 8 . , , , , , , . 3() (1969), (1976), 3 (1978), (1981) (2, 1984) , , .74 2030 96. 3 1. 1) , , 3 1960 .23) 1971 70.4% , 1990 . 1% 1970 1995 30% , 1990 30% . 1989 20.2%, 1992 27.8% (17.8%), (26.2%) . 2010 3 18.3%, 15.6%, 30.9% .* 2010 < 4-13> ()23) 2010 , . 2010 .4 2030, 75 97. * 24) , . 2002~2007 . 3 , 42.1% . < 4-6> () ()24,539 2,16910,3313,5488,4911999 12,7754346,4862,1423,713--19991,213-468507-2000467-399200121735238--68 182708 3720021,17439300275560-20031,671607380256591,625276451-20051,224250579-200672620071,6692008359-2009153--2010349--2011 2012749 168----200489850 352-38--677528395 183 40262---281---153--335--741 168--7814 8-24) ( , ) ; 114 2030 -505-< 4-14> (1998~2012)76758---389- 98. 2) 3 3 1960 80% 2010 65% , 3 3 .< 4-15> 3vs (1960~2010)2. 1) 1975 6,889,440 1990 10,612,577 2010 9,794,304 2030 9,512,550 . , 1975 4,038,973 1995 . 2010 14,041,968, 2030 9,512,550 .* 2010 (2011) .< 4-16> (1975~2030)4 2030, 77 99. 2) . 2000 151 GRDP 2010 230 2000 181.5% . 2000 141 2010 287 2000 202.7% . 2004 GRDP .< 4-17> GRDP (2000~2010)3) , . 1993~2006 . 65%, 35% .< 4-18>vs (1993~2006)78 2030 100. , () .4 1. (critical mass) 3 . . , . , . 25 15% . , , 3 25 , 30% . , 20, 30% . 10~25% , 15~20, 15% .< 4-19>(), () 4 2030, 79 101. , (critical mass) . , 1,000 1 2 . 1 20 + 20% , 2 15 + 15% . .1) (2000~2009) 2000~2009 3 , . 25 15% . 1 2000 , , , , 5 2009 6 . 2 2000 1 2009 , , , 4 .< 4-20> (2000~2009)80 2030 102. 2) (2000~2009) 2000~2009 41 , . 2000 1 1 , 2009, 2 1 . 2 , , , 4 .< 4-21> (2000~2009)2. 1) (LQ) . 4 2030, 81 103. , , , . , . , , , 3 , . , 0.5~1.5 . . , 3 . , .< 4-22> (2009)< 4-23> (2009)82 2030 104. < 4-24> (2009)< 4-25> (2009)2) 50 500 . , , . . . , , , 3 . , 1.00 .4 2030, 83 105. < 4-26> (2009)3. , , 3 . 15 , 15% , , , , , , , . , , , , , . , 3 .84 2030 106. < 4-27> 15 , 15% (2009)1) , . 1995 . 1990 , . , , , . . . 3 , . , , 4 2030, 85 107. . , .< 4-28> 2) . . , , . , . 86 2030 108. . . < 4-7> DMC 33 32, MRC 77 23 ()-()-() ( 53) (2014) (2012) (2015) 5 ( 19) ( 25) 21 (2014) ( 5) /// . , GTX, KTX . < 4-8> (7), , , , , 6 DMC 13 , , , 5, 9, KTX 1, 4, 6, , , GTX , , , , , , 1,2,3 ,, - GTX , / , - , -, (2016) 7 , -, - , , ()- GTX -, 3(-) , 2,3, , , , , 2,3, , , 4 2030, 87 109. , . . . . < 4-9> , , - , , , , 3 , 64 , (10) , ( ) , (Key tenant) . Key tenant . < 4-10> Key tenant R&D, (34)SDS, , , , LIG, R&D, (2017) 1) , 2) , 3) , 4) . , , , , 88 2030 110. , , . . . , . , , , , . < 4-11> () Key Tenant , () , , , / 3) 7 , . , , , 2000~2009 . , 3% , 0.8 . 6.0%, 7.4% .4 2030, 89 111. < 4-12> () (00-09)3.8% 327,0960.880.4%2.9% 291,8170.682.3%3.8% 207,6010.891.3%3.6% 245,5310.83-0.4%3.6% 228,8940.843.9%1.8% 220,6860.436.0% 3.5% 177,8770.827.4%< 4-29> (2009) 4 , , . 1.00 . , , , . , , , , . , , 15% , 4 .90 2030 112. < 4-13> (2009) 0.881.331.51 1.290.680.941.37 0.930.891.160.86 0.810.830.511.48 1.020.840.520.68 0.880.430.990.83 0.590.820.520.77 0.98< 4-30> (2009)4 2030, 91 113. < 4-31> 5 1. (STEEP) , STEEP . , , . , . , . , . , , .92 2030 114. < 4-32> (STEEP)2. 1) . 1993 2006 90,234(1993 14.4%) , 133,108 (1993 3.35%) , 88.8 (1993 80.0%) .< 4-33> (1993~2006)4 2030, 93 115. < 4-34> (1993~2006)2) . 5 46, 300 35 (76.8%) .25) 2002~2008 42% . , . 2008 12.6%(14) , 109, 84 . , . 717, 564, 487, 440 . 3 3 , 1.63 .26) , . 25) , 2010 26) 3.3 , Office Scope 2011. 4/4 94 2030 116. 3) 3 vs , vs 3 , , , 3 . , 3 . , .< 4-35> 3 vs 2000~2009 < 4-36> vs 2000~2009 4 2030, 95 117. < 4-14> 3 //-4.6%4.4%-2.5%0.7% -17.9%-6.6%-16.3%0.9%-10.1%-5.5%-7.5%1.0%/ 4.6%-2.9%1.3%1.6%-1.2%0.2%-0.7%8.0% -0.6%0.0%-0.3%3.2% 1.1%1.2%1.1%3.2%0.3%2.0%1.5%6.2%26.7%19.4%23.8%12.1% 3.6%-0.6%2.4%1.1% 3.6%3.2%3.5%4.3%0.9%6.5%2.4%12.4%, 3.9%2.6%3.2%4.3% 3.8%4.1%6.4%5.7%6.9%6.4%9.1%, -4.4%-0.9%-2.6%2.9% , *4.7% 1.0%0.5%0.7%2.8% , * 27) [] 2005 SK-U(13.9), 2006 (5.8), 2009 (4.6), 2010 NHN (10.2) 2000 . 100 . 3 4,000 , 2012 8 1,845 . 6.4%, 1,300.0/, 6.1/ .27) ( , )96 2030 118. < 4-37> (1994~2010, )< 4-38> (1994~2010, )< 4-39> 4 2030, 97 119. < 4-15> , (%, /) (%) 6.71,310.9152.913.96.21.51,210.0125.012.53.6 6.41,300.0151.413.86.1[] 80 . . 4.7%, 67 7/, 5.0/ .< 4-40> (1985~2010, )98 2030 120. < 4-41> < 4-16> , (%) 4.81.6 4.7(%, /)676.979.7 73.95.73.0676.979.37.55.0-7.75.14) , , foot-loose( ) . . , - - . 2012 54.4% , PC , . , . , 4 2030, 99 121. . 2010 , , 2012 . 2015 50, 450 , 30% . . < 4-17> 49% , 500 91% (2007)1992 14 2011 20% , * < 4-42> - . IT (back-office) , . . < 4-18> IDC 100 , , IT , , , , 2011 3 5000 , 4 2030 122. 5) , , , , . < 4-19> 2016 200 DMC 23 2014 , (26) (73) 2013 54 , . 9 .< 4-43> (, 2005)6) .4 2030, 101 123. < 4-20> 66 2012 300 // // 309.5, 36 (53) / (127) (28) , , (), (), () . (2001), (2001), (2009) . , (GTX) 28) .< 4-44> (2006)28) ~(), ~, ~ 102 2030 124. , . . , . , , . . , , . . , .29)< 4-45> 29) ( , )4 2030, 103 125. 7) 30) . 31) 16 20 2012~2014 3 . 1 3 . 2007 32) 157 . 2012 7 88.9%, 67.2% , 10 119 3 8 .33) .8) , , , , , , .9) (GTX) (BRT) GTX -(), -, - 3 , 2013 . BRT -, -, -, - , 2019 2 . 30) 31) / 72.91(2,205) 223 50 , 16 20 , , , 32) 4,495ha, 27.3, 100,240 250~350ha ( 2 50~100, 5 150~250 ) , , , LH, , , , 157 33) .104 2030 126. 6 , 1. , , . , . 3 2 5(++) , 2030 . . . - - 2 . 3 -, - 2 5 . , - . . , , , 2030 . , . . , 2030 .4 2030, 105 127. , . , . , , , . , , () , . . . , , .< 4-46> . , . .106 2030 128. , , Adaptive Office . Foot-loose , . , .< 4-47> < 4-48> 2030, ()4 2030, 107 129. 2. 2 5 . . . (Destination) . , , , . profile A, B, C EXTRA . -, - . , . , (Destination) . , , . . , . 108 2030 130. . , , R&D, , . .4 2030, 109 131. 5 2030 , 5 2 0 3 0, 1 2 3 (1997~2010) 4 5 , 132. 5 2030, 1 . , , 4 . , , , , . , (89.6%) , . , . . 2008 31.3% OECD 15.8% . (29%), (21%), (22%) . , ? ? . IMF ? ? ? . , , , 5 2030, 113 133. ? .2 1. 7.2%, . , , 3 .< 5-1> (2010)114 2030 134. 2010 (GIS) . 89.6% , . , 9.8%, 0.6% . . < 5-1> (2010) () 78,096,084.8 (, ) 100.0%7,684,611.79.8%431,678.7 (, )0.6%69,979,794.489.6%* 2010 < 5-2> (2010)5 2030, 115 135. , , , , , . , .< 5-3> (2010)2. . , 116 2030 136. , , . . . . 2008 31.3% , . (29%), (21%), (22%) .< 5-4> 1997 2010 . , . , . 2010 82.2% . . 1997 18.0% . 2005 19.8% , 20055 2030, 117 137. . , .< 5-5> < 5-2> (1997~2010) (2010) () 199720052010 () 97~0505~10 (%) 97~1097~05 05~10 97~10100% 48,969,163.7 69,107,600.8 78,096,084.8 20,138,437.1 8,988,484.0 29,126,921.1 7.4%4.4%2.5%3.7%24.7%8.0%18.0%-19.8%0.4%-12.6%670,558.9 3,924,354.6 5,768,524.6 3,253,795.8 1,844,170.0 5,097,965.80.6% 2,473,341.9423,934.5431,678.7 -2,049,407.47,744.2 -2,041,663.23.5% 3,572,548.8 3,179,219.8 2,771,394.3-393,329.0-407,825.5-801,154.5-1.4%-2.7%-1.9%5.2% 3,280,502.3 3,814,807.4 4,056,947.2534,305.1242,139.8776,444.91.9%1.2%1.6%/1.1%50,856.2-26,147.624,708.60.7%-0.6%0.2% 82.2% 38,106,224.9 56,848,441.3 64,176,844.4 18,742,216.4 7,328,403.1 26,070,619.55.1%2.5%4.1%865,986.9916,843.1890,695.53 (1997~2010) 1. GRDP 1997 49.0 2010 78.1 3.7% . (GRDP) 6.0% 118 2030 138. , GRDP 3.0% . -0.4~1.0% . , GRDP .< 5-6> < 5-3> , , (1997~2010) GRDP ( , , ) 1997 * 20052010 (%) 1997~20052005~20101997~201048,969,163.6869,107,600.7578,096,084.764.4%2.5%3.7%GRDP129,240,485208,899,249274,778,6286.2%5.6%6.0% 10,217,1779,762,5469,631,482-0.5%-0.3%-0.4% 188,426,826287,769,396362,506,1951.2%0.7%1.0%* , 1995~2010 . * GRDP, . .2. 1) SSM 34) 2005~2010 7.8%, SSM(Super Super Market) 34) 3000 , , . (, 1998). SSM () . 3,000 (, GS, ).5 2030, 119 139. 26.2% , 1.7% . SSM 2011 5 902 2006 381.8% . 769 (85.3%) , GS, 3 . 2010 SSM 24.6% , , .* , , 2011< 5-7> * , 2011< 5-9> * , , 2011< 5-8> * , , 2011< 5-10> SSM . . 1988 . (), (), ABC, ( ), , ( ) . 120 2030 140. 1990 , . , , , , . 2009 , , , , .< 5-11> 2) 1997 2.47 2010 0.43 12.6% . , . , .35) .35) (2005) .5 2030, 121 141. * , 1996, < 5-12> < 5-13> 3) 1995 TV . .36) 1995 2001 TV . 1996 . 2002 TV . . 2004 , () .36) (, 2009) .122 2030 142. , . . , , / .< 5-14> , , 37) 2011 999 2,500 (824) 21% . (B2B, 91.3% ) 22.1% , (B2C) 15.7% . B2C, C2C 38) 2011 29 620 2010 25 2,030 15.3% . < 5-4> (, %) 2010 2011 () 824,392100.0999,250100.0174,85821.2 (B2B)747,09090.6912,56291.3165,47222.1 (B2G)52,7726.458,3785.85,60610.6 (B2C)16,0051.918,5221.92,51615.7 (C2C)8,5241.09,7881.01,26414.837) ( , 2012.2.23) . 38) C2C B2B, B2G .5 2030, 123 143. < 5-15> (B2C, C2C) (2001~2011) . 2000 3.2% 2006 18.8% . 2000 10.5% 2006 25% , 2000 81.3% 2006 78.8% .< 5-16> / 2011 2, 7, 25.5% 20.9% . , .124 2030 144. < 5-17> 2011 19 9,900(65.4%) / 10 600(34.6%) . , / .< 5-18> 5 2030, 125 145. 4 STEEP(Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics, Value) , , , , , .< 5-19> (STEEPV)1. 1 2 1 1990 9.1%39) 2030 24.9% . 12 2010 46.7% 2010 . , 65 2010 94(9.4%) 2030 210(22.3%) .40) 12 39) , . 40) , .126 2030 146. . 12 . , . . , .2. 2006 556 , 2011 835 , 2012 1,000 . 2005 6.3 2010 11.9 . , . 1 1,076 , . 1 1,646 .41) , . (local market) . 2027 100 , . 1990 1995 887 2010 1,037 1.17 .42) , . 41) , 3% ( , 2011. 6. 16) 42) (http://stat.seoul.go.kr)5 2030, 127 147. , . (GRDP) 1997 129 2010 275 2.13 6.0% .43) 3.7% , . . , . . , , .3. . . . (Street) , (Indoor) . , , .43) , .128 2030 148. < 5-20> 4. , 1 2 . . GDP 3.7% OECD (5.5%) .44) . 1990~1997 187 2000~2008 220 75.7% . 2008 1.253 . , 2007 9.0% 2011 9.6%, 2007 3.7% 2011 5.2% .45) 5 . 44) , 2011, , , LG business Insight, LG. 45) , .5 2030, 129 149. .* SDI , 2011< 5-21> 5 , 1. , 1) 12 . . , . , . , 130 2030 150. . . OECD . . , .2) 3 . . , . , , , . , SSM . , , . . , , , , . , , .5 2030, 131 151. * (http://map.naver.com)< 5-22> (- ), SSM , . , .< 5-23> ( SSM , ) 1 ()132 2030 152. . . 2,900 .46) , . SPA . 47) , . 2012 1/4 60% 50~6048) . .3) , , . . . 12 , . . .46) 95 , 124 (, 2012.5.2, ). 47) 1 8,200, 5,100 (, 2012.05.19) 48) , 2012.05.19, vs, ?5 2030, 133 153. < 5-24> , . . . , . . .134 2030 154. 2. , , , . , . . , . , . . . , , , . SSM SSM . SSM , , . . SSM . SSM Win-Win .5 2030, 135 155. 156. , 2010, , . . (), 2007, . , 2010, 2010. , 2011, , 4(1). , 2007, , 34(3). , 2007, , 41(2). , 2009, , Issue Report. , 2010, , ?, SDI . , 2009, , . 2, 2009, 2008, , . , 2011, 1~2 , . , 2005, , . , 2001, , 36(6). , 2011, - , . , 2010, - (VKT) , 45(7). , 2009, , . , 2010, GTX , GTX . , 2006, , 7(2). , 2008, , . , 2005, , . , 2012, 2012 , 90:6-27.139 157. , 2012, . , 2012, , . , 2011, 3~4 , . , 2011, , , 354:3-21. , 2006, 10, , . , , 2006, - . , 2008, 2007. , 2004, . , 2002, 2000. , 2011, 2020 . , 2011, 2011 . , 2010, 2010 . , 2009, 2020 . 4, 2010, (Compact City) , . , 2007, , . , , . , 2009, , . , 2009, ,SDI . , 2009, , . , 1997, , . , 2007, , Economic Issue Brief 16, . 3, (), . , 1999, , .140 2030 158. , 2011, , , LG business Insight, LG. , 2009, , 12(3). 6, 2008, , . , 2002, , 37(4). , 2011, , 353. , 2009, , . , 2004, , . , 2009, , . , 2009, , . , 2011, . , 2005, , . , 3% ( , 2011. 6. 16) ( , 2012.2.23). , " , 2", 2009, (2009 9 8). , , 2011, SUNDAY 245. Office Scope , 2005~2012, . Da-Mi Maeng, Zorica Nedovi-Budi, 2008, Urban form and planning in the information age, SPATIUM 17-18. Inglehart, R.. 1996, The diminishing Utility of Economic Growth, Critical Review, vol.10, no.4141 159. Kotkin, J. and DeVol R.C., 2001, Knowledge value Cities in the Digital Age. Santa Monica, CA. Milken Institute. Peter Gordon and Harry W. Richardson, 1997, Are Compact Cities a Desirable Planning Goal?, Journal of the American Planning Association, 63(1). Rovert E. Lang and Jennifer Lefurgy, 2003, Edgeless citiesExamining the Noncentered Metropolis, Housing Policy Debate 14(3). http://ctla.kipf.re.kr/ (, ) http://stat.seoul.go.kr/ () http://www.drapt.com/ () http://innocity.mltm.go.kr/ ( ) http://www.kosis.kr/ () http://www.kostat.go.kr/ () http://www.moel.go.kr/ () http://www.seoul.go.kr/ () http://www.smartwork.go.kr/ () http://www.syasset.com/ ()142 2030 160. Table of ContentsChapter 1Introduction1. Background and Purpose of the Study 2. Main Contents and Research MethodsChapter 2Major Trends and Turning Points on the Future of Seoul1. Major Changes of Population and Households 2. Major Socio-Economic Changes 3. Housing Demand and Supply of the SeoulChapter 3 The Future of Seoul 2030, Evolution of Residential Areas: Prospects and Policy Agenda 1. Perspectives on the Future of Residential Areas of the Seoul 2. Major Characteristics of Residential Areas Changes of the Seoul(1970~2010) 3. Main Driving Forces of Residential Areas Changes of the Seoul 4. Changes of Main Driving Forces Causing Residential Areas Transition 5. Residential Location Patterns of the Seoul and Future Prospects 6. Evolution of Residential Areas in the Seoul: Prospects and Policy AgendaChapter 4The Future of Seoul 2030, Evolution of Economic Activity Centers: Prospects and Policy Agenda1. Perspectives on the Future of Economic Activity Centers of the Seoul 2. Major Factors on the Decentralization Trends of Economic Activity Centers 3. Changes of Main Driving Forces Causing Economic Activity Centers Transitions 4. Evolution of Economic Activity Centers in the Seoul Metropolitan Area: Prospects and Policy AgendaChapter 5The Future of Seoul 2030, Evolution of Neighborhood Commercial Areas: Prospects and Policy Agenda1. Perspectives on the Future of Neighborhood Commercial Areas of the Seoul 2. Locations and Main Features of Neighborhood Commercial Areas of the Seoul 3. Major Characteristics of Changes on Neighborhood Commercial Areas of the Seoul(1997-2010) 4. Changes of Main Driving Forces Causing Neighborhood Commercial Areas Transitions 5. Evolution of Neighborhood Commercial Areas in the Seoul: Prospects and Policy AgendaReferences 161. 2012-PR-56 2030 : 2012 9 15 137-071 340 57 (02)2149-1234 (02)2149-1025 6,000 ISBN 978-89-8052-958-2 94300 978-89-8052-957-5 () .