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98 年下半年投資報告. 組長 : 王幼彭 組員 : 侯惠英、陳秋姿、姜碧春、陽春華 黃文萍、朱龍飛、游文祥. 國際金融市場. 何謂資產配置:投資工具 相關性低 或 負相關性 的組合叫做資產配置。 目的:降低波動風險. 資料來源:台大 TMBA 游穎鴻. 投信. 消費者. WMA ( 財富管理顧問 ). 理財規劃. 投資顧問. 理財目標 風險承受 ( 風險屬性 ). 景氣與節氣 基本面與技術面 ( 位置點 ) 資金面. 邏輯架構 + 資訊分析 =WMA= 解決方案 = 專業. 資料來源:啟富達國際股份有限公司. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
:
: 98
TMBA
+=WMA==
1()() 2() 3()
() ()
()+()
*
CRB
6 9.5%26 46.76 ISM 44.85 1.8%51.4%6.9%16,0002,750 13,750 52.4%4 3.8%
NASDAQSP5003/10 6/11 13 5~8 3 2~6 S&P500 S&P500 840 7,600 A 3,242
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Chart4
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07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
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(GDP)
ISM
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ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
ISM 5954.352.45659.760.755.855.854.855.854.654.441.949.349.65251.748.249.550.650.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744
080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
ISM 41.949.349.65251.748.249.550.650.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744
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ISM
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ISM
ISM
NAHB
080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
NAHB
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080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
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CPI
070107020703070407050706070707080709071007110712080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI
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NAHB
CPIPCE
00
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NAHB(50)
Sheet1
070107020703070407050706070707080709071007110712080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
08010802080308040805080608070808080908100811081209010902090309040905
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
Sheet1
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080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
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CPI
080108020803080408050806080708080809081008110812090109020903090409050906090709080909091009110912
CPI2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
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CPI
PCE
Chart2
87.378.40.4
7569.6-0.6
64.569.50.2
62.362.6-0.2
57.259.51
50.456.40.1
51.961.2-0.1
58.561.7-0.3
59.870.3-1.2
3857.6-2.8
44.955.3-1.8
3861.9-3.1
37.761.21
2556.3-0.1
2657.3-1.1
39.265.1-0.4
54.968.70.5
066906
(%)
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
08~09
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
08~09
000
000
000
000
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000
000
000
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000
000
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(%)
08~09
0000
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()
()
NAHB(50)
000
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000
()(%)
ISM
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
GDP(%)
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
:
Chart3
4.94.32.52.2
4.842.32
5.142.42.1
53.92.32.1
5.54.22.32.1
5.552.42.3
5.75.62.52.4
6.15.42.52.6
6.12.54.94.2
6.52.23.72.1
6.721.11.9
7.21.80.11.7
7.601.71.6
8.10.21.81.8
8.5-0.41.81.8
8.9-0.71.81.9
9.4050505
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
08~09
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
08~09
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
(%)
08~09
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
()
()
NAHB(50)
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
()(%)
ISM
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
GDP(%)
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
ISM(1) (2) (3)%ISM
8,000 8,900 7,600 9,300
S&P 500 NASDAQ1,750 1,900 1,600 1,950840 950 800 1,000
*
VIX:30
1 21 PMI50 IFO ZEW3 2KD20 37/16
:
Chart8
103.4-41.654.4
104.1-39.554.3
104.8-3255.1
102.4-40.753.6
103.5-41.453.5
101.3-52.452.6
97.5-63.950.9
94.8-55.549.7
92.9-41.143.3
90.2-6342.9
85.8-53.535.7
82.6-45.232.7
83-3132
82.6-3132.1
82.1-3.532.4
83.71335.4
84.231.139.6
0644.840.5
IFO()
ZEW()
(PMI)
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
08~09
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
08~09
(%)
08~09
()
()
NAHB(50)
()(%)
ISM
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
GDP(%)
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
(PMI)
IFO()
ZEW()
(PMI)
Chart9
52.8
52.3
52
50.7
49.1
49.2
47.4
47.6
41.3
41.1
35.6
33.9
34.5
34.8
33.9
36.8
40.7
42.4
(PMI)
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
08~09
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
08~09
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
(%)
08~09
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
()
()
NAHB(50)
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
()(%)
ISM
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
GDP(%)
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(PMI)
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
IFO()
ZEW()
(PMI)
PMI6187ETFMOUMOU
Chart14
23
23
23
19
11
5
-3
Q4
()
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
08~09
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
08~09
(%)
08~09
()
()
NAHB(50)
()(%)
ISM
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
GDP(%)
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
(PMI)
IFO()
ZEW()
(PMI)
()
(:50)
Chart1
36.4
54.5
03
27.3
60
30
91.4
89.3
09
85.2
81.5
80
78.1
75
76.5
76.2
(:50)
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)0.83.84.90.61.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
156.8153.2154.4142.9150.1140.6137.3130.7122.6117.8115.2106.8104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()140.8152.5151.8152.8147.4146.7138.1133.1119.1122.9118.7100.6101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()93.783.685.898.191.583.48773.571.672.864.760.458.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()646669612599599576575550504497500489489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)3539363330282422201819191920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
Fed8.30.60.20.24.2189.2010.96.88.2-5.7-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
ISM 49.352.350.954.7555653.852.95250.95048.450.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
48.847.961.752.961.760.253.453.854.249.752.956.451.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.12.52.72.22.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
07010203040705060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)5555.654.954.353.251.552.852.652.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)1.81.81.91.41.91.91.81.72.12.63.13.13.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.47.47.27.176.96.96.96.97.27.27.27.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()107107107.7108.6108.6107106.4105.8104.2103.9104.2103103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-3.62.95.816.52420.310.4-6.9-18.1-18.1-32.5-37.2-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)58.557.256.95756.157.356.85654.951.753.753.654.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI1.61.61.91.91.91.81.92.52.43.12.82.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)10.29.39.29.29.29998.88.78.68.48.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)33.13.32.82.50.30.324.10
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)53.255.454.254.154.954.755.956.352.954.452.950.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.82.52.41.91.81.82.12.12.12.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.92.92.92.82.82.72.62.62.62.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
07Q1Q2Q3Q408Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.31.22.63.53.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
070102030405060708091011120801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)40.93036.418.2308066.727.3018.218.24036.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
08~09
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
(GDP)(%)1.93.3-0.5-6.3-5.7
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-0.1-0.30.10.4-0.2-0.1-0.7-0.50.1-0.8-0.40.30.4-0.4-0.30.1
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
87.37564.562.357.250.451.958.559.83844.93837.7252639.254.9
78.469.669.562.659.556.461.261.770.357.655.361.961.256.357.365.168.769
(%)0.4-0.60.2-0.210.1-0.1-0.3-1.2-2.8-1.8-3.11-0.1-1.1-0.40.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
104.897.892.798.296.9109.193.785.478.670.861.654.952.154.751.649.451.8
()101.2106.594.7103.297.5106.696.589.581.779.162.55546.658.35145.853.2
()58.85952.652.651.25351.54646.443.340.733.130.933.735.635.2
()489503493489499486500491518498449474449472457468477
NAHB(50)1920202019181616181499899141615
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)-1.6-2.61.52.5-0.920.7-3-1.1-4.40.6-3.6-2.53.9-0.60.8
Fed-20.9-24.3-17.41-24.9-15.6-17.1-16.3-12.73.8-36.1-24.3-41.3-35-24.4-22.6-2.2
ISM 50.748.348.648.64950.25049.943.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.8
51.544.548.248.349.149.650.857.956.737.833.834.133.334.231.440.134.9
080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)-2.81.3-0.6-21.8-1.4-1.5-0.5-1.1
(%)78.776.475.473.67270.969.369.168.3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(%)4.94.85.155.55.55.76.16.16.56.77.27.68.18.58.99.4
CPI(%)4.3443.94.255.65.42.52.221.800.2-0.4-0.7
CPI(%)2.52.32.42.32.32.42.52.54.93.71.10.11.71.81.81.8
PCE(%)2.222.12.12.12.32.42.64.22.11.91.71.61.81.81.9
08~09
(%)
08~09
()
()
NAHB(50)
()(%)
ISM
(%)
CPI(%)
CPI(%)
PCE(%)
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)2.21.40.7-1.5-4.8
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)52.852.35250.749.149.247.447.641.341.135.633.934.534.833.936.840.742.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
()(%)3.22.93.63.33.7443.63.63.22.11.61.11.20.60.60
(%)7.17.17.17.17.27.37.37.57.57.77.888.28.58.99.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.62.52.41.63.10.8-1.7-6.9
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
IFO()103.4104.1104.8102.4103.5101.397.594.892.990.285.882.68382.682.183.784.2
ZEW()-41.6-39.5-32-40.7-41.4-52.4-63.9-55.5-41.1-63-53.5-45.2-31-31-3.51331.144.8
(PMI)54.454.355.153.653.552.650.949.743.342.935.732.73232.132.435.439.640.5
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.72.83.12.433.33.32.92.92.51.41.10.910.70.7-0.1
(%)8.187.87.97.97.87.87.67.67.57.57.67.87.98.18.38.2
GDP(%)
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(PMI)50.651.351.35045.844.345.94141.534.433.634.739.142.945.4
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
CPI2.22.52.533.33.84.44.75.24.54.13.133.22.92.32.2
(%)2.52.52.52.52.52.62.72.82.933.33.63.84.54.74.8
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
GDP(%)3.3-3.3-0.4-15.2-14.2
08Q1Q2Q3Q409Q1Q2Q3Q4
()23232319115-3
0801020304050607080910111209010203040506070809101112
(:50)36.454.527.3603091.489.385.281.58078.17576.576.2
(PMI)
IFO()
ZEW()
(PMI)
()
(:50)
225
6,100 7,084 5,500 7,500
3~6
CRB()()48.8% 30%
CRB()+25%()
CRB:237 268 186 27560
:920 1,000 700 1,032:920M
:60 80 40 80:60
=+
:78.00 86.50 77.30 90.001. 3000 1.4350 1.2000 1.4750
0.6500 0.8500 0.5500 0.9500103.00 90.00 110.00 85.00
15~20 (1)(2)
() 1210%
12
()
() 12
THE END
***********************