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1 : (PMP) 25. 5-1. 5-2. (PMP)

35-1. (PMP: Probable Maximum Precipitation) (PMS: Probable Maximum Storm) :

American Meteorological Society (1954) : PMP is the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a particular drainage area at a certain time of the year.

WMO (1986) : PMP as the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area in a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year.

The modification recognizes the fact that there is a difference in the storm depths over a storm area and those over a specific basin of the same size because storm patterns do not coincide exactly with the shape of the basin45-2. (PMP)WMO(1986) PMP : --

55-2. (PMP) (Storm Model Approach) PMP . PMP . : . PMP .65-2. (PMP) (R0) . (Moisture Maximization Factor) . MMF . . MMF (Precipitable Water) . PW . MMF : 12 24 (Wm) 12 24 (Ws)MMF=Wm/Ws PMP :

75-2. (PMP) 1000 ( ) ( ). .

85-2. (PMP) 1000 ( ) 200 ( ).

95-2. (PMP)1:

105-2. (PMP)2: 12 . 24 .

115-2. (PMP) PMP

PMP . 300 (Schreiner and Riedel, 1978).

300 . PMP .125-2. (PMP)3:If the storm has occurred on a sloping plain at an elevation of 400 m, then the moisture maximization factor for the data given in example 1 is as follows:

135-2. (PMP) PMP PMP . PMP . . . d1 d2 w1 w2 MMF ( Km) :

145-2. (PMP) PMP ( ) . d3 w3 :

:

155-2. (PMP)4:

165-2. (PMP) PMP . ( ) . . .

175-2. (PMP)5:

185-2. (PMP) (Generalized Method) PMP ( ) . -- (DAD) ( ) PMP . GM :

195-2. (PMP) Hershfield (1965) PMP :

:XPMP: Km : X1 n : n. : X1.

205-2. (PMP)6: 24 55 . PMP .YEARPrecMax24YEARPrecMax24YEARPrecMax24195114197147199228195234197217199336195342197333199413.5195434197426199526195528197517199617.4195638197630199724195726197729199852195824197835.4199924.4195925197933.4200026196022198018200119.1196138198127200221196225198236.3200336196343198342200422196437198426200526.1196523198527196614198637196724198723196840198840.2196933199015197018199129.4X1X(n)(n)52.028.69.0X(n-1)(n-1)28.18.5Km2.8PMP(mm)53.9215-2. (PMP): PMP

( ) PMP .