当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China

  • View
    321

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Recent Economic Development in China. Peoples Bank of China Research Department Zhang Tao. Growth dynamics. Source: PBOC; NBS. Reliance of GDP on Investment. Exports: A Key Driving Force of GDP Growth. Inflation Moderated (YOY). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript

  • Recent Economic Development in ChinaPeoples Bank of ChinaResearch Department Zhang Tao

  • Growth dynamics

    Source: PBOC; NBS

    4

    11.2

    10.2

    9.4

    7.2

    8.3

    8.1

    8.1

    7.6

    9.9

    9.8

    9.9

    10.1

    GDP(05)

    %

    GDP

    GDPGDP(05)

    199511.211.2

    199610.210.2

    19979.49.4

    19987.27.2

    19998.38.3

    20008.18.1

    20018.18.1

    20027.67.6

    20039.99.9

    20049.89.8

    20059.49.9

    200610.1

    GDP

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    GDP

    %

    GDP

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    GDP(05)

    %

    Sheet3

    Sheet3

    13.514

    12.613.1

    10.510.9

    9.610

    8.89.3

    7.87.8

    7.17.6

    88.4

    7.58.3

    8.39.1

    9.510

    9.510.1

    GDP

    GDP

    %

    GDP1993-2004

    1

    13.514

    12.613.1

    10.510.9

    9.610

    8.89.3

    7.87.8

    7.17.6

    88.4

    7.58.3

    8.39.1

    9.510

    9.510.1

    20059.9

    before revision

    after revision

    %

    GDP

    real GDP q1real GDP q1

    199511.211.2

    199610.210.2

    19979.49.4

    19987.27.2

    19998.38.3

    20008.18.1

    20018.18.1

    20027.67.6

    20039.99.9

    20049.89.8

    20059.49.9

    200610.1

    GDP

    11.2

    10.2

    9.4

    7.2

    8.3

    8.1

    8.1

    7.6

    9.9

    9.8

    9.4

    real GDP q1

    %

    GDP

    11.2

    10.2

    9.4

    7.2

    8.3

    8.1

    8.1

    7.6

    9.9

    9.8

    9.9

    10.1

    real GDP q1

    %

    Sheet3

    before revisionafter revision

    199313.514

    199412.613.1

    199510.510.9

    19969.610

    19978.89.3

    19987.87.8

    19997.17.6

    200088.4

    20017.58.3

    20028.39.1

    20039.510

    20049.510.1

    20059.9

    Sheet3

    13.514

    12.613.1

    10.510.9

    9.610

    8.89.3

    7.87.8

    7.17.6

    88.4

    7.58.3

    8.39.1

    9.510

    9.510.1

    20059.9

    before revision

    after revision

    %

  • Reliance of GDP on Investment

    14

    0.038

    0.092

    0.142

    0.135

    0.126

    0.105

    0.096

    0.088

    0.078

    0.071

    0.08

    0.073

    0.08

    0.091

    0.095

    0.099

    Inv/GDP

    GDP Growth

    GDP Growth Vs Inv/GDP,1990-2005

    GDP

    GDPGDPGDPGDPGDP

    RMB bnRMB mnRMB mnRMB bn

    195267.91739425.62%976914.39%26.2738.69%()19919.223.9

    195382.42132425.88%1196714.52%32.8839.90%###199214.244.42002-2004

    195485.92451728.54%1321815.39%35.6141.46%200446950199313.561.8200220032004

    1955912492727.39%1274514.01%36.440.00%200343069.537428.716065.68648.8115832127.53513.3199412.630.419.36.67.119.627.843.0

    1956102.82801927.26%1408813.70%42.441.25%200245705.839798.717453.9902912130.82241.23665.9199510.517.51-29.76.36.921.531.128.6

    1957106.83032028.39%1548914.50%44.1641.35%200145263.739648.2177589387.311408.82052.83563.119969.614.81-39.86.37.021.830.527.7

    1958130.73796229.05%1873614.34%48.1236.82%200046217.540522.418790.89963.61060020103685.219978.88.81-410.06.57.016.126.725.8

    1959143.94871233.85%2047114.23%55.6538.67%199950838.645304.119848.71138812808.618943640.619987.813.9

    1960145.75722939.28%2036513.98%59.5440.86%199851229.545624.719871.310972.613295.42000.63604.219997.15.1

    19611223560629.19%1587613.01%53.7744.07%199749417.144349.320073.512328.910430.91875.53192.320008.010.3GDP

    1962114.933135527.28%1620714.10%54.3747.31%199650453.545127.119510.311056.912747.11790.3353620017.313200319.9

    1963123.333422527.75%1643113.32%54.4844.17%199546661.841611.618522.610220.711198.61787.53262.620028.016.9200326.7

    1964145.43995427.48%1820012.52%57.2739.39%199444510.139389.117593.39929.79927.52095.63025.420039.126.7200339.6

    1965171.614733227.58%2043011.90%59.0134.39%199345648.840517.417751.41063910270.41950.43181.120049.525.8200349.9

    1966186.85587129.91%2219611.88%63.2833.88%199244265.840169.618622.210158.79538.312522844.2200419.8

    1967177.394193623.64%1966311.08%67.9138.28%19914352939566.318381.39595.39877.31247.12715.9200429.6

    1968172.313612520.97%1915611.12%64.9237.68%199044624-18933.19822.99681.9-2743.2200439.1

    1969193.795267627.18%2354412.15%69.8236.03%198940754.9-180139080.77892.8-2730.4200449.5

    1970225.276629029.43%2812012.48%72.8832.35%198839408-16910.88543.27735.1-2696.5

    1971242.647447330.69%3125612.88%77.6932.02%198740473.3-17441.68776.87982.2-2820

    1972251.817665630.44%3170212.59%85.3533.89%

    1973272.098096729.76%3489512.82%91.7733.73%

    1974278.997831428.07%3604012.92%96.7434.68%

    1975299.738156127.21%4027713.44%104.6434.91%

    1976294.377765826.38%4079613.86%109.937.33%

    1977320.198744627.31%4682714.62%117.4336.68%199851229.5

    1978362.4111322631.24%5192814.33%126.4934.90%199950838.6

    1979403.8211463828.39%5378213.32%147.636.55%200046217.5

    1980451.7811599325.67%5717012.65%179.439.71%200145263.7

    1981486.2411757924.18%6298912.95%200.2541.18%200245705.8

    1982529.4712123322.90%7000213.22%218.1541.20%200343069.5

    1983593.4513669523.03%7755913.07%242.6140.88%200446950

    1984717.116428622.91%9473513.21%289.9240.43%

    1985896.4420048222.36%20407922.77%430.548.02%

    19861020.2221220120.80%20907320.49%49548.52%

    19871196.2521993518.39%21403617.89%58248.65%

    19881492.8323572415.79%23904716.01%74449.84%

    19891690.9226649015.76%27274016.13%810.1447.91%

    19901854.7929371015.84%28218615.21%830.0144.75%

    19912161.7831494814.57%29901713.83%941.5643.55%

    19922663.8134833713.08%32969112.38%1099.3741.27%

    19933463.4443489512.56%42553012.29%1246.2135.98%

    19944675.9452181011.16%51268810.96%1626.4734.78%

    19955847.8162422010.67%60380410.33%206235.26%

    19966788.4674079910.91%69098210.18%2477.4136.49%

    19977446.2686511411.62%82340411.06%2729.8936.66%

    19987834.5298759512.61%92628011.82%2915.2537.21%

    19998206.75114440813.94%106825813.02%3113.4737.94%

    20008946.81133952314.97%125815114.06%3415.2638.17%

    20019731.48163860416.84%153013815.72%3759.5238.63%

    200210517.23189036417.97%176364516.77%4202.7139.96%

    200311725.19217152518.52%200173117.07%4584.239.10%

    200413651.5272152519.94%257180018.84%539539.52%

    GDP

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1998-2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Billgates:5500

    1978-2004GDP

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1978-2004GDP

    Sheet4

    9.2

    14.2

    13.5

    12.6

    10.5

    9.6

    8.8

    7.8

    7.1

    8

    7.3

    8

    9.1

    9.5

    1991-2004GDP

    1991-2004GDP

    2003120031200319.9

    2003220032200326.7

    2003320033200339.6

    2003420034200349.9

    2004120041200419.8

    2004220042200429.6

    2004320043200439.1

    2004420044200449.5

    12003-2004GDP

    Sheet3

    GDP%()%

    ##

    ()(%)()(%)

    2003121511.467442.552678.521819.330859.21476451382.751248.3134.42686.242.355.5GDP200327.714.733.834.118.42.53652.950.334.574.4

    2002107897.662798.548881.621265.727615.913916.942304.941918.3386.62794.239.258.2200347.459.451200216.97.213.415.420.14.946.247.119.111.539.9

    200198592.958927.445898.120307.425590.713029.337460.836813.3647.52204.73859.8200241.467.953.82001136.79.911.715.32.5-0.239.47.822.41.5

    200089340.954600.942895.619196.923698.711705.332499.832623.8-1242240.236.461.1200138.268.255.9200010.33.510.713.412.24.5-3.263.9-8.46.2-3.3

    199982673.149722.739334.418147.621186.810388.330701.629475.51226.12248.837.160.1200036.877.757.719995.13.83.53.412.13.761.827.3-12.6-8.721.4

    199879003.346405.936921.117667.219253.99484.829545.927630.81915.13051.537.458.7199936.476.458.8199813.917.48.95.89.2-0.4-50.940.4-16.242.4-28.2

    199774894.243579.434854.617436.817417.88724.828457.625154.23303.42857.23858.2199836.371.355.119978.895.596.85.8-2.934.14.212.2-3.6

    199668330.440003.932152.31639815754.37851.626867.223336.13531.11459.339.358.5199733.575.156.9199614.810.211.318.425.426.77.119.820.724186.7

    199558510.53363526944.513247.113697.46690.52387720300.53576.5998.540.857.5199633.871.553.9199517.513.319.219.129.932.217.951.821.556.784.6

    199446690.72679620809.810308.310501.55986.219260.616856.32404.3634.141.357.4199534.263.757199430.421.319.121.933.533.579.4145.5130.388.857.6

    199334500.720182.115682.47867.27815.24499.714998129802018-679.443.558.5199436.457.955.2199361.844.170.56420.813.1

    199225863.715952.112459.86571.65888.23492.3963683171319275.637.361.7199337.759.857199244.448.194.8101.43.3-3.6

    199121280.413145.910315.95639.84676.12830751759401577617.535.361.8199230.365.655.9199123.924.431.834.918.118.9

    199018319.511365.29113.25129.13984.12252644447321712510.335.262199125.970.853.8

    19891646610556.58523.54919.83603.72033609543391756-185.53764.1199024.48053.8

    1988147049360.17633.14473.23159.9172754954624871-151.137.463.7198926.17653.3

    198711784.77451.25961.23630.12331.114904322374258011.536.763.2198831.870.653.31