-
2017 :
, - 1H17
Overweight()
2H17 1H17
- (Duqm), (Sitra) 50 . 1H17
- J/V
- ,
- , GS(006360.KS)
2017. 05. 23
//, Tel. 02)368-6874 [email protected]
-
Summary
2017 2017 . (Duqm)
(Sitra) . 1)50 , 2) J/V
, .
, . ,
.
, .
.
, EPC .
, . .
2 . FLUOR, KBR EPC 2015
. , , . , .
, . ,
.
. EPC LNG(Liquefaction)
. JGC(50%), (70%) LNG ,
. , , LNG
. , LNG
. , LNG .
: ,
2017
()
DUQM REFINERY 60 PETROFAC/CHIYODA/
TECNICAS REUNIDAS/
.
SITRA REFINERY MODERNIZATION 50 JGC/
GS
TECHNIP/TECNICA
REUNIDAS/
CB&I/PETROFAC
UAE RRE POC 25 GS .
RRE PKG.2 10 GS . .
AL-DABBIYA GAS PROC. GS SK
. TECHNIP TECNIMONT SAIPEM
HARADH/HAWIYAH GAS PROC. 45 /
. JGC SAIPEM TECNICAS REUNIDAS
AZ-ZOUR NORTH IWPP PHASE-2 30 / /SIDEM .
NORTH FIELD-SOUTH TANK PIPELINE 5 GS SK
. TECNICA REUNIDAS SAIPEM PETROFAC
NRP FEED PIPELINE 9 SK .
. SAIPEM TECNICAS REUNIDAS JGC
-
Summary
2017 EPC . 2016
. , , , GS ,
.
, 2 . 2016 11
. , .
. , 2017
.
. , ,
.
2016 11
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
11.0
1
11.0
8
11.1
5
11.2
2
11.2
9
12.0
6
12.1
3
12.2
0
12.2
7
01.0
3
01.1
0
01.1
7
01.2
4
01.3
1
02.0
7
02.1
4
02.2
1
02.2
8
03.0
7
03.1
4
03.2
1
03.2
8
04.0
4
04.1
1
04.1
8
04.2
5
05.0
2
05.0
9
05.1
6
EPC (2016 11~)
GS
: ,
//,
Tel. 02)368-6874 [email protected]
-
Key Chart
EPC
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
GS()
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
JGC
CHIYODA
TOYO
MES
: , : ,
() Saipem/Technip
68
74
80
86
84
95
95
97
98
94
84
73
64
59
51
47 66
0
50
100
150
200
250
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() TECHNIP FMC BACKLOG
SURFACE TECHNOLOGIES ONSHORE/OFFSHORE SUBSEA
97 134 124 112 115 93 82 75 63 66 70 71 63
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() SAIPEM BACKLOG
E&C:OFFSHORE E&C:ONSHORE DRILLING:OFFSHORE
DRILLING:ONSHORE
: Technip, : Saipem,
TR JGC
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()() TR /
%()
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%)(%) JGC /
%
%()
: TR, : JGC,
-
Summary
0. 2017
I.
1. //
2. : LNG
3. :
II.
GS (006360.KS)
(000720.KS)
(012630.KS)
(047040.KS)
SK (210980.KS)
(010780.KS)
SAIPEM (SPM.IM)
Chiyoda Corp (6366.JT)
JGC (1963.JT)
Mitsui Shipbuilding (7003.JT)
FLUOR Corporation (FLR.US)
KBR (KBR.US)
2 6
10
16
17
-
6
Analyst |
0. 2017
2017 .
(Duqm) (Sitra) . 1)50
, 2) J/V
. ,
. ,
.
1 2017
()
DUQM REFINERY 60 PETROFAC/CHIYODA/
TECNICAS REUNIDAS/
.
SITRA REFINERY MODERNIZATION 50 JGC/
GS
TECHNIP/TECNICA
REUNIDAS/
CB&I/PETROFAC
UAE RRE POC 25 GS .
RRE PKG.2 10 GS . .
AL-DABBIYA GAS PROC. GS SK
. TECHNIP TECNIMONT SAIPEM
HARADH/HAWIYAH GAS PROC. 45 /
. JGC SAIPEM TECNICAS REUNIDAS
AZ-ZOUR NORTH IWPP PHASE-2 30 / /SIDEM .
NORTH FIELD-SOUTH TANK PIPELINE 5 GS SK
. TECNICA REUNIDAS SAIPEM PETROFAC
NRP FEED PIPELINE 9 SK .
. SAIPEM TECNICAS REUNIDAS JGC
: ,
-
7
Analyst |
2 Duqm Refinery
: omanobserver.com
3 Bapco Sitra
: arabianbusiness.com
-
8
Analyst |
I.
1. //
EPC .
, .
. 2 .
FLUOR, KBR EPC 2015 .
, , . ,
. ,
. , .
4 5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
FLUOR
KBR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
TECHNIP SAIPEM TR
: , : ,
6 7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
JGC
CHIYODA
TOYO
MES
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
GS()
: , : ,
-
9
Analyst |
8 EPC 2016 9
129
26 78
52 74 36 13 29
77
0
41
6
61
4 6
1 3
-2
2
14
18
32
32
20 15
41
16 21
33
32
134
101
112
84
142
87
71
92
72
59
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() EPC
()
()
/
953 914 907 870 912 892 836 827 762 784
740 691 709 672 649 531 474 453 415 424
366 355 348 329 303 315
305 278 248 243
1,156 1,060 1,091 1,042 1,060
1,047 1,006 973
989 934
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() EPC ()
()
/
: , : ,
10 / 11
953
914
907
870
912
892
836
827
762
784
366
355
348
329
303
315
305
278
248
243
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() /
()
953
914
907
870
912
892
836
827
762
784
740
691
709
672
649
531
474
453
415
424
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() /
()
()
: , : ,
-
10
Analyst |
2. : LNG
1) LNG,
EPC . LNG(Liquefaction)
. JGC/ 2
. JGC(50%), (70%) LNG
, . ,
, LNG . ,
LNG
.
, . JGC
. LNG
.
12 LNG 13
7.6
11.4
8.2
8.6
10.1
14.1
16.7
19.3
17.0
17.3
12.4
13.3
20.0
19.0
10.1
50.7
51.5
44.8
59.2
60.6
53.4
53.5
51.2
55.2
50.7
47.2
55.0
54.6
42.3
39.3
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%) JGC
// LNG
// ///
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%)() JGC /
//
LNG%()
: JGC, : JGC,
14 LNG 15 LNG
55.4
42.6
58.1
53.1
56.9
55.9
55.7
65.0
62.2
73.6
69.8
68.7
64.2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%)
CHIYODA
LNG
/
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%)() CHIYODA /
LNG%()
: , : ,
-
11
Analyst |
2) ,
5 3, JGC FY2017 .
( -95-220). 215 ,
( )
. ,
.
.
.
16 LNG 17 LNG
8,6
84
8,2
27
9,5
24
13,0
03
12,1
89
11,3
29
10,8
66
10,0
07
8,4
12
7,5
94
6,6
31
5,5
24
4,8
65
4,6
25
3,8
79
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
() JGC
//
LNG//
7,5
56
11,7
77
11,3
89
11,3
99
11,0
30
10,7
26
10,8
34
9,8
17
8,6
03
7,2
30
6,1
62
6,4
47
6,0
53
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
()CHIYODA
LNG/
: JGC, : ,
18 19
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%)(%) JGC /
%
%()
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
(%)(%) CHIYODA CORP /
%()
%()
: JGC, : ,
-
12
Analyst |
3. :
EPC . TechnipFMC(2016 FMC Technologies
), Saipem , . Technip FMC
Technologies , ,
.
.
, Tecnias Reunidas( TR) .
,
. TR
EPC . ,
TR J/V .
20 21
68
74
80
86
84
95
95
97
98
94
84
73
64
59
51
47 66
0
50
100
150
200
250
1Q
13
2Q
13
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() TECHNIP FMC BACKLOG
SURFACE TECHNOLOGIES ONSHORE/OFFSHORE SUBSEA
97 134 124 112 115 93 82 75 63 66 70 71 63
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() SAIPEM BACKLOG
E&C:OFFSHORE E&C:ONSHORE DRILLING:OFFSHORE
DRILLING:ONSHORE
: TechnipFMC, : Saipem,
22 23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() TR ORDERBOOK
MIDDLE EAST EUROPE LATAM ROW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() FLUOR ORDERBOOK
GLOBAL SERVICES GOVERNMENT INDUSTRIAL & INFRASTRUCTURE
O&G
: Tecnicas Reunidas, : FLOUR,
-
13
Analyst |
TechnipFMC . Subsea Technip
FMC . Saipem
,
. TR
EPC .
24 25
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() TECHNIP OP
ONSHORE/OFFSHORE
SUBSEA
1 1 1 1 1 -0 1 1 1 1
3
-1 1
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
10
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() SAIPEM OP
E&C:OFFSHORE E&C:ONSHORE DRILLING:OFFSHORE
DRILLING:ONSHORE
: Technip FMC, : Saipem,
26 27 O&G
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()() TR /
%()
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() FLUOR OP
GLOBAL SERVICES GOVERNMENT INDUSTRIAL & INFRASTRUCTURE
O&G
: Tecnicas Reunidas, : FLUOR,
-
14
Analyst |
II.
2017 EPC . 2016
. , , ,
GS ,
. , 2
. 2016 11
. , .
. , 2017
. ,
.
28 2017
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
01.0
2
01.0
9
01.1
6
01.2
3
01.3
0
02.0
6
02.1
3
02.2
0
02.2
7
03.0
6
03.1
3
03.2
0
03.2
7
04.0
3
04.1
0
04.1
7
04.2
4
05.0
1
05.0
8
05.1
5
2017 EPC
GS
: ,
29 2016 11
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
11.0
1
11.0
8
11.1
5
11.2
2
11.2
9
12.0
6
12.1
3
12.2
0
12.2
7
01.0
3
01.1
0
01.1
7
01.2
4
01.3
1
02.0
7
02.1
4
02.2
1
02.2
8
03.0
7
03.1
4
03.2
1
03.2
8
04.0
4
04.1
1
04.1
8
04.2
5
05.0
2
05.0
9
05.1
6
EPC (2016 11~)
GS
: ,
-
15
Analyst |
GS(006360.KS)
STRONG BUY() / TP 51,000()
()
(000720.KS)
BUY() / TP 58,800()
()
(012630.KS)
BUY() / TP 59,000()
(047040.KS)
BUY() / TP 9,000()
()
SK(210980.KS)
BUY() / TP 40,000()
SK
(010780.KS)
STRONG BUY() / TP 70,000()
SAIPEM(SPM.IM)
NR
EPC
Chiyoda Corp(6366.JT)
NR
LNG
JGC(1963.JT)
NR
FY2017
Mitsui Shipbuilding(7003.JT)
NR
4
FLUOR Corporation(FLR.US)
NR
EPC
KBR(KBR.US)
NR
-
16
Analyst |
GS(006360.KS)
//,
Tel. 368-6874 / [email protected]
()
1Q17 Review: 2 7,135, 716 (OPM 2.6%)
GS 1Q17 ( 2 9.956, 706)
( 2 7,920, 706)
. /. / 1Q17 3,040
(GPM 19.6%) , . 2017
,
GS .
, GS
1Q17 GS 22.6%
. GS , () . ,
, 20%
. ,
. 1Q17 , 1.2
, 22 ,
.
STRONG BUY, 51,000 GS STRONG BUY 51,000 . GS
1Q17 .
.
GS . 2017
PER 6.1, PBR 0.7, 2018 PER 3.9, PBR 0.6
. 2017 .
STRONG BUY()
(12M, ) 51,000
(5/22) 31,000
(: 2017. 5. 22)
KOSPI(pt) 2,304.0
KOSDAQ(pt) 642.6
() 5,000
() 2,207.4
52 /() 32,750 / 23,050
52 Beta 1.38
() 71,207
(3M,) 530
(3M,) 16,347
(16A, %) 0.0
(%) 15.0
(%)
18 29.0
7.6
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
-2.8 5.1 18.5 5.1
KOSPI -9.2 -4.3 2.4 -13.2
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
16.5 16.9 17.1
(,)
KOSPI(, p)
(12) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
() 10,573 11,036 11,823 11,649 11,583
() 122 143 456 667 721
() 31 21 375 587 641
() 29 -20 285 446 487
EPS() 367 -363 4,519 6,657 7,272
(%) 47 9
PER() 53.8 - 6.1 3.9 3.6
ROE(%) 0.9 -0.6 7.8 10.6 10.5
PBR() 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5
EV/EBITDA() 10.3 12.7 4.7 2.7 2.0
:
-
17
Analyst |
()
1. 1Q17 Preview: 2 7,135, 716
GS 1Q17 2 7,135(-12.9%QoQ, +2.8%YoY), 716 (OPM 2.6%)
(+35.6%QoQ, +145.9%YoY) ( 2 9.956, 706) (
2 7,920, 706) . /
. / 1Q17 3,040(GPM 19.6%) , .
2017 ,
GS . , .
, , UAE NSRP 400
.
30 GS
() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P 2Q17F 3Q17F
4Q17F
23,158 24,911 27,889 29,769 26,391 27,064 25,747 31,154 27,135
30,733 28,876 31,485
3,066 3,042 3,098 3,454 3,368 3,642 3,044 3,771 2,934 3,878
3,729 4,375
/ 6,154 7,306 9,674 9,979 9,391 11,803 12,369 14,575 15,503
17,710 16,348 18,555
3,004 2,211 4,579 4,219 3,621 4,063 4,569 4,748 4,740 4,460
4,117 3,838
3,150 5,095 5,095 5,760 5,770 7,740 7,800 9,828 10,763 13,250
12,231 14,718
11,488 12,232 12,336 13,014 11,696 9,873 8,911 10,599 6,961
7,643 7,349 7,443
/ 1,854 1,693 2,405 3,156 1,785 1,570 1,261 2,014 1,550 1,327
1,276 952
465 -465
130 1,104 376 165 151 177 162 194 187 174 174 160
21,912 23,538 26,761 28,039 25,114 25,910 24,873 29,576 25,433
28,593 26,267 28,971
% 94.6 94.5 96.0 94.2 95.2 95.7 96.6 94.9 93.7 93.0 91.0
92.0
96.9 95.9 93.7 95.1 96.4 93.7 98.0 94.4 93.5 95.6 95.2 97.3
/ 90.7 90.1 81.6 83.4 83.5 85.1 83.6 86.1 80.4 84.4 86.1
88.6
87.6 90.5 89.2 95.4 87.3 87.3 89.1 88.5
80.9 82.3 80.3 81.6 77.4 83.4 85.1 88.6
94.8 93.2 106.9 99.2 104.7 106.0 113.2 106.0 120.9 110.1 97.5
96.3
/ 102.2 118.5 98.9 105.5 90.9 115.5 103.1 102.6 106.1 102.2
102.6 99.6
441.3 56.4 108.8 119.9 104.3 97.5 103.3 83.2 90.1 101.2 97.7
104.5
1,246 1,373 1,127 1,730 1,277 1,154 874 1,578 1,702 2,140 2,609
2,514
95 125 194 168 121 229 62 210 191 171 179 117
/ 572 720 1,785 1,658 1,550 1,757 2,030 2,029 3,040 2,771 2,277
2,124
1,102 1,370 1,537 1,808 2,437
597 826 -846 110 -550 -593 -1,173 -641 -1,452 -770 182 276
/ -41 -314 27 -174 162 -243 -40 -52 -95 -29 -33 4
465 -465
-443 482 -33 -33 -7 4 -5 33 18 -2 4 -7
1,046 991 1,018 1,200 986 927 490 1,049 986 1,146 1,065
1,211
% 4.5 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.4 1.9 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8
200 382 109 530 291 227 384 528 716 994 1,544 1,303
%OPM 0.9 1.5 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.6 3.2 5.3 4.1
220 24 202 -133 83 118 -205 218 -658 1,176 1,726 1,502
14 47 534 -301 78 77 -187 -173 -578 915 1,339 1,171
: GS,
-
18
Analyst |
2. , GS
1Q17 GS 22.6% . GS
, () . , ,
20% . 1Q17
(, ) 1 ,
2017 15% ,
. , .
1Q17 , 1.2 , 22 ,
. GS
.
31 / 32 / 3,000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17P
() GS
//
572 720
1,785 1,658 1,550 1,757 2,030 2,029
3,040
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,0001Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17P
() GS
/
/
: GS, : GS,
33 34
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
74.0
75.0
76.0
77.0
78.0
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17P
(%)() GS
%()
17.0
18.5
19.1
19.5
20.5
21.8
22.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17P
() GS
()
: GS, : GS,
-
19
Analyst |
3. Valuation
GS STRONG BUY 51,000 . GS
1Q17 . .
GS . 2017 PER 6.1,
PBR 0.7, 2018 PER 3.9, PBR 0.6 . 2017 GS
, , GS
, . 2017 .
35 GS Valuation ( )
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
BPS 65,784 51,928 46,070 46,258 46,180 47,156 52,332 57,694
63,160 67,502
EPS 1,565 -15,016 -622 367 -363 4,519 6,657 7,272 7,780
6,489
%ROE 2.6 -25.5 -0.7 0.9 -0.6 7.8 10.6 10.5 10.2 7.9
TARGET PER() 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
15.0
TARGET PER() 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
20.0
() 23,478 -225,246 -9,332 5,506 -5,447 67,779 99,856 109,073
116,693 97,329
() 31,304 -300,328 -12,442 7,342 -7,262 90,372 133,141 145,431
155,591 129,772
TARGET PBR() 0.2 -1.8 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
TARGET PBR() 0.4 -3.5 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1
() 11,878 -92,646 -2,360 2,912 13,854 25,864 38,851 42,304
45,108 37,191
() 23,416 -182,645 -4,654 5,741 23,090 51,000 76,592 83,400
88,927 73,320
PER() 32.6 -3.4 -82.0 138.9 -140.5 11.3 7.7 7.0 6.6 7.9
PBR() 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
PER() 20.8 -2.2 -52.3 53.8 - 6.1 3.9 3.6 4.2 5.0
PBR() 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
: GS,
36 GS (CB)
() (%) ()
131 2,500 2.9 2017-04-12 29,471 8,482,915
132 1,736 4.5 2017-07-21 34,125 5,088,176
: GS,
-
20
Analyst |
37 GS
() 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
92,896 95,658 94,876 105,726 110,356 118,230 116,488 115,833
116,316 123,803
12,368 11,470 10,858 12,661 13,825 14,917 15,516 16,181 16,905
16,801
/ 27,051 33,386 28,118 33,113 48,139 68,117 71,687 74,379 76,769
79,135
1,894 8,890 1,830 3,219
39,530 37,962 42,016 49,069 41,078 29,396 22,421 17,631 14,375
12,197
/ 11,130 10,444 10,622 9,108 6,631 5,106 6,159 6,927 7,542
14,933
2,163 1,803 1,986
85,246 99,449 90,589 100,250 105,474 109,264 105,422 104,231
104,241 112,539
% 91.8 104.0 95.5 94.8 95.6 92.4 90.5 90.0 89.6 90.9
96.4 97.4 93.8 95.4 95.5 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.9 96.0
/ 100.0 88.0 93.6 85.7 84.7 85.0 84.4 84.4 84.4 85.1
93.9 123.2 96.5 98.6 107.2 106.0 102.8 102.7 102.6 106.0
/ 88.5 99.0 102.0 105.5 102.6 103.0 102.9 102.8 102.7 103.0
82.8 90.6 82.1
5,889 5,563 3,775 4,255 3,453 4,409 4,391 4,396 4,432 4,802
% 6.3 5.8 4.0 4.0 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9
1,604 -9,355 512 1,221 1,430 4,557 6,675 7,206 7,643 6,462
-215 -303 100 140 -35 -52 -68 -85 -104 -119
/ 718 2,317 964 3,383 6,542 7,692 8,556 8,855 9,146 8,827
606 -10,841 -143 -1,091 -4,562 -2,646 -1,305 -1,007 -806
-1,098
/ 299 -462 -727 -978 -451 -368 -437 -484 -519 -1,073
432 184 191
%OPM 1.7 -9.8 0.5 1.2 1.3 3.9 5.7 6.2 6.6 5.2
-1.7 -2.6 0.9 1.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7
/ 2.7 6.9 3.4 10.2 13.6 11.3 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.2
1.5 -28.6 -0.3 -2.2 -11.1 -9.0 -5.8 -5.7 -5.6 -9.0
/ 2.7 -4.4 -6.8 -10.7 -6.8 -7.2 -7.1 -7.0 -6.9 -7.2
20.0 10.2 9.6
1,820 -9,932 -296 313 213 3,746 5,871 6,413 6,860 5,722
950 -8,273 -225 295 -204 2,847 4,462 4,874 5,214 4,349
: GS,
38 GS PBR BAND CHART
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
15.0
4
15.0
6
15.0
8
15.1
0
15.1
2
16.0
2
16.0
4
16.0
6
16.0
8
16.1
0
16.1
2
17.0
2
17.0
4
PBR BandPrice0.40.50.60.7
()
:
-
21
Analyst |
GS(006360.KS)
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F (:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
9,549 9,737 9,716 9,729 10,069 10,573 11,036 11,823 11,649
11,583
3,060 2,915 2,993 3,483 3,833 (%) 11 4 7 -1 -1
4,470 4,777 4,634 4,221 4,202 548 488 897 1,107 1,160
796 825 858 782 778 (%) 5 4 8 9 10
3,456 3,640 3,794 3,947 4,103 426 345 441 439 440
1,973 2,468 2,569 2,673 2,781 (%) 13 -19 28 -0 0
1,339 978 1,012 1,044 1,073 122 143 456 667 721
145 194 213 231 248 (%) 139 17 219 46 8
13,005 13,377 13,509 13,676 14,172 EBITDA 206 211 517 731
787
7,139 7,225 7,034 6,723 6,724 (%) 60 3 145 41 8
3,346 3,868 3,662 3,336 3,320 -91 -122 -81 -80 -79
2,085 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 43 50 53 54 55
0 0 0 0 0 119 127 85 85 85
2,518 2,798 2,413 2,453 2,495 -65 23 0 0 0
1,620 1,820 1,396 1,396 1,396 293 3 3 3 3
736 944 983 1,023 1,064 -243 -70 -52 -52 -52
9,657 10,023 9,447 9,176 9,218 31 21 375 587 641
355 355 423 423 423 2 42 90 141 154
611 611 967 967 967 0 0 0 0 0
-275 -247 -190 -190 -190 29 -20 285 446 487
-76 -76 -76 -76 -76 (%) 57 9
2,537 2,504 2,789 3,227 3,680 (%) 0 -0 2 4 4
3,348 3,353 4,062 4,500 4,954 EPS 367 -363 4,519 6,657 7,272
3,705 3,643 3,220 3,220 3,220 (%) 47 9
() 645 728 227 -263 -614 EPS 367 -363 4,519 6,657 7,272
3,748 3,797 3,993 3,929 4,019 (%) 47 9
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
-8 81 -136 713 603 ()
29 -20 285 446 487 EPS 367 -363 4,519 6,657 7,272
83 68 61 64 66 BPS 46,258 46,180 47,156 52,332 57,694
-289 -60 -388 37 38 DPS 0 0 100 400 700
-137 -172 -93 166 11 (,%)
() -188 -198 143 413 19 PER 53.8 - 6.1 3.9 3.6
() 1 -65 -33 76 4 PBR 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5
() 300 156 -207 -326 -15 PCR 5.3 5.4 - 4.8 4.4
-249 -65 3 3 3 EV/ EBITDA 10.3 12.7 4.7 2.7 2.0
508 -249 -233 -238 -243 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2
() 19 -29 -23 -24 -25 (%)
() 0 0 -7 -9 -9 1.2 1.3 3.9 5.7 6.2
-227 -79 -85 -84 -83 EBITDA 1.9 1.9 4.4 6.3 6.8
2 5 0 0 0 0.3 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2
() -0 -14 -30 -30 -30 ROE 0.9 -0.6 7.8 10.6 10.5
-228 78 424 -8 -34 ROIC 2.7 -3.6 8.9 12.8 13.8
() -298 -106 0 0 0 (%,)
() -0 -1 424 -8 -34 / 19.3 21.7 5.6 -5.8 -12.4
1 1 0 8 34 133.8 134.8 138.1 144.7 149.8
() 277 -72 55 466 326 1.6 1.9 14.0 21.2 23.8
2,151 2,429 2,356 2,411 2,877 ()
2,429 2,356 2,411 2,877 3,204 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
Gross cash flow 263 346 -43 547 592 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8
Gross investment -352 391 304 48 207 15.0 13.6 14.0 14.2
14.9
Free cash flow 616 -45 -346 498 385 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5
:
-
22
Analyst |
(000720.KS)
//,
Tel. 368-6874 / [email protected]
()
/
1Q17 67.4 .
,
. .
30% / 70%
. ,
.
2Q17 Preview: 4 8,486, 2,754 (OPM 5.7%)
2Q17 4 8,486(+3.5%YoY), 2,754
(+2.6%YoY) (OPM 5.7%) . /
,
. , 1(283) - (217) 1
(2,754)
.
BUY, 58,800 BUY 58,800 . 2016
7.3 4.2. 2017
1 9,277 ,
.
1Q17 (3.8)
,
.
BUY()
(12M, ) 58,800
(5/22) 47,800
(: 2017. 5. 22)
KOSPI(pt) 2,304.0
KOSDAQ(pt) 642.6
() 5,000
() 5,389.6
52 /() 51,600 / 31,300
52 Beta 1.12
() 111,356
(3M,) 366
(3M,) 17,880
(16A, %) 0.0
(%) 31.6
(%)
5 34.9
11.2
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
-3.2 2.3 12.6 42.1
KOSPI -9.6 -7.0 -3.6 23.8
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
16.5 16.9 17.1
(,)
KOSPI(, p)
(12) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
() 19,122 18,744 18,649 18,506 18,505
() 987 1,053 1,106 1,158 1,158
() 798 877 889 941 942
() 584 650 694 734 734
EPS() 3,304 4,407 4,700 4,973 4,977
(%) -12 33 7 6 0
PER() 8.6 9.7 10.3 9.7 9.7
ROE(%) 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.2
PBR() 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
EV/EBITDA() 3.7 4.2 2.7 2.3 1.8
:
-
23
Analyst |
()
1. /
1Q17 67.4 . ,
.
. 2Q16 / 3,000
, 30% / 70% . ,
.
,
.
39 69 40
17.3 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.4 13.8 12.9
12.3 13.0 13.0 13.9 13.8 14.7 14.6 16.7 16.5
22.0 26.6 25.5 24.3 24.6 23.8 23.7 25.9 27.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
HEC
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.2 0.9
0.0 0.1 1.0
0.7
1.8
6.6
0.7
0.9 2.4
0.8 1.6
4.3
3.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
HEC
: , : ,
41 69 42
581
2,0
61
1,7
91
1,5
74
1,7
00
2,0
29
2,4
02
1,6
61
1,3
00
2,9
90
2,8
96
3,5
94
3,1
19
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
/
/
/
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
: , : ,
-
24
Analyst |
2. 2Q17 Preview: 4 8,486, 2,754
2Q17 4 8,486(+3.5%YoY), 2,754(+2.6%YoY) (OPM
5.7%) . / ,
. 4Q16 1Q17 UAE(300),
(200) . ,
1(283) - (217) 1
(2,754) .
43
() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F
4Q17F
39,432 48,155 47,114 56,519 42,879 46,866 44,641 53,059 41,297
48,486 44,756 51,946
/ 7,523 8,926 9,352 10,476 7,748 11,209 11,621 15,075 12,214
12,417 11,462 11,664
3,584 5,169 5,215 5,703 4,746 6,541 7,073 8,489 7,390
/ 5,359 6,783 6,379 7,247 5,120 6,715 5,606 6,891 5,033 6,468
5,971 7,406
/ 24,082 29,410 28,731 35,821 27,349 26,652 25,891 29,134 22,763
27,901 25,755 30,894
36,039 44,186 43,088 51,813 39,253 41,803 40,127 47,899 36,824
44,013 40,453 47,263
% 91.4 91.8 91.5 91.7 91.5 89.2 89.9 90.3 89.2 90.8 90.4
91.0
/ 77.4 77.3 74.3 84.1 83.2 73.3 75.1 76.2 74.5 81.0 79.4
83.0
/ 93.5 89.7 97.7 95.9 103.5 93.1 96.3 100.1 102.6 95.1 95.1
90.0
/ 95.7 96.5 94.9 93.3 91.6 94.4 95.0 95.3 94.5 94.0 94.0
93.7
3,393 3,969 4,026 4,707 3,626 5,063 4,515 5,160 4,473 4,473
4,304 4,683
/ 1,700 2,029 2,402 1,661 1,300 2,990 2,896 3,594 3,119 2,363
2,356 1,979
/ 351 699 144 299 -181 462 209 -10 -131 318 293 742
/ 1,042 1,017 1,453 2,413 2,288 1,485 1,301 1,364 1,261 1,674
1,545 1,958
300 224 27 334 218 126 108 212 224 118 109 3
1,386 1,426 1,382 2,035 1,554 2,379 1,763 2,140 2,187 1,719
1,581 1,388
% 3.5 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.6 5.1 3.9 4.0 5.3 3.5 3.5 2.7
2,007 2,543 2,644 2,672 2,072 2,684 2,751 3,020 2,286 2,754
2,723 3,295
%OPM 5.1 5.3 5.6 4.7 4.8 5.7 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.3
1,577 2,161 2,228 2,017 1,207 2,489 1,685 3,393 468 2,631 2,600
3,193
1,117 1,441 1,630 1,652 869 1,678 1,356 2,601 439 2,044 2,013
2,439
: ,
44 45 /
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
(%)
/
/
/
: , : ,
-
25
Analyst |
3. Valuation
BUY 58,800 . 2016 7.3
4.2. 2017 1 9,277
, . 1Q17
1
. 1Q17 (3.8)
, . 2017
PER 10.3, PBR 0.8.
46 Valuation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
BPS 40,811 43,818 48,844 52,227 56,944 62,437 68,421 74,411
80,377 86,890
EPS 4,579 4,523 3,769 3,304 4,407 4,700 4,973 4,977 4,959
5,372
%ROE 13.0 12.1 11.4 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.2 8.5 8.5
TARGET PER() 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
10.0
TARGET PER() 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
15.0
() 45,786 45,227 37,687 33,038 44,074 47,001 49,728 49,774
49,593 53,722
() 68,679 67,841 56,530 49,558 66,111 70,501 74,591 74,661
74,390 80,584
TARGET PBR() 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
TARGET PBR() 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
() 26,439 26,463 27,747 27,077 30,437 32,546 34,425 34,332
34,096 36,949
() 47,748 47,792 50,112 48,901 54,970 58,800 62,171 62,004
61,577 66,729
PER() 12.8 13.0 15.6 17.8 13.3 12.5 11.8 11.8 11.9 10.9
PBR() 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
PER() 10.4 10.6 12.7 8.6 9.7 10.3 9.7 9.7 9.6 8.9
PBR() 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
: ,
-
26
Analyst |
47
() 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
133,248 139,380 173,870 191,221 187,445 186,485 185,062 185,050
185,505 186,157
/ 31,985 33,660 36,989 36,277 45,653 47,757 45,895 44,480 43,405
42,588
/ 25,016 25,270 26,343 25,768 24,332 24,879 26,057 26,964 27,662
28,200
/ 70,046 73,140 101,118 118,044 109,026 107,313 107,803 108,545
109,426 110,367
120,759 127,296 158,457 175,126 169,082 168,552 167,416 167,523
168,012 167,867
% 90.6 91.3 91.1 91.6 90.2 90.4 90.5 90.5 90.6 90.2
/ 93.3 90.6 83.8 78.5 76.4 79.4 79.5 79.6 79.7 79.8
/ 85.2 86.6 89.2 94.2 98.0 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 92.0
/ 90.7 92.6 94.2 95.0 94.1 94.0 93.9 93.8 93.7 93.6
12,489 12,085 15,413 16,095 18,363 17,933 17,646 17,527 17,493
18,290
/ 2,129 3,151 6,008 7,792 10,780 9,818 9,398 9,073 8,819
8,619
/ 3,695 3,383 2,850 1,493 480 1,223 1,305 1,376 1,438 2,268
/ 6,524 5,406 5,839 5,925 6,438 6,438 6,569 6,716 6,873
7,035
141 144 715 885 664 455 374 361 363 367
4,885 4,156 5,824 6,229 7,836 6,875 6,070 5,944 5,947 5,970
% 3.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
7,604 7,929 9,589 9,866 10,527 11,058 11,576 11,583 11,546
12,319
%OPM 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.6
7,370 7,620 8,027 7,983 8,773 8,892 9,408 9,417 9,382 10,163
5,670 5,696 5,867 5,840 6,504 6,936 7,338 7,345 7,318 7,928
: ,
-
27
Analyst |
48 PER BAND CHART
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
17.0
5
PER BandPrice8.09.511.012.5
: ,
49 PBR BAND CHART
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
17.0
5
PBR BandPrice
0.5
0.7
0.8
1.0
: ,
-
28
Analyst |
(000720.KS)
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F (:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
14,344 14,949 15,216 15,993 16,608 19,122 18,744 18,649 18,506
18,505
3,238 4,004 4,522 5,006 5,595 (%) 10 -2 -1 -1 -0
7,606 7,133 6,869 7,096 7,096 1,609 1,836 1,793 1,765 1,753
1,329 1,199 1,186 1,225 1,225 (%) 8 10 10 10 9
5,115 4,934 5,052 5,170 5,293 623 784 687 607 594
2,503 2,626 2,732 2,843 2,959 (%) 7 26 -12 -12 -2
1,754 1,498 1,545 1,588 1,626 987 1,053 1,106 1,158 1,158
857 810 774 740 708 (%) 3 7 5 5 0
19,459 19,883 20,267 21,164 21,901 EBITDA 1,182 1,243 1,290
1,343 1,345
8,583 8,747 8,482 8,673 8,703 (%) 6 5 4 4 0
5,101 5,161 4,866 5,028 5,027 -188 -175 -217 -217 -217
453 604 604 604 604 74 80 70 70 71
0 0 0 0 0 103 87 113 113 113
3,384 2,995 3,031 3,069 3,109 20 77 0 0 0
2,267 2,051 2,051 2,051 2,051 23 -6 3 3 3
1,100 900 936 974 1,014 -203 -240 -176 -177 -178
11,967 11,741 11,513 11,742 11,812 798 877 889 941 942
557 557 557 557 557 214 227 196 207 207
1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040 0 0 0 0 0
39 111 86 86 86 584 650 694 734 734
0 0 0 0 0 (%) -0 11 7 6 0
4,185 4,638 5,276 5,943 6,611 (%) 3 3 4 4 4
7,491 8,142 8,755 9,421 10,089 EPS 3,304 4,407 4,700 4,973
4,977
2,720 2,656 2,656 2,656 2,656 (%) -12 33 7 6 0
() -519 -1,349 -1,867 -2,351 -2,940 EPS 3,304 4,407 4,700 4,972
4,977
6,389 6,366 6,442 6,607 6,667 (%) -12 33 7 6 0
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
596 1,087 898 852 961 ()
584 650 694 734 734 EPS 3,304 4,407 4,700 4,973 4,977
196 190 184 185 187 BPS 52,227 56,944 62,437 68,421 74,411
14 40 33 35 36 DPS 500 0 600 600 600
-564 -205 -13 -102 4 (,%)
() -207 661 265 -228 0 PER 8.6 9.7 10.3 9.7 9.7
() 124 283 13 -39 0 PBR 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
() 315 218 -295 161 -0 PCR 2.4 3.2 5.9 5.7 5.6
-796 -1,367 4 4 4 EV/ EBITDA 3.7 4.2 2.7 2.3 1.8
-1,174 -775 -399 -379 -387 1.8 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2
() -613 -448 -75 -78 -82 (%)
() -135 -67 -40 -15 -16 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.3
-187 -179 -178 -176 -176 EBITDA 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.3
15 4 0 0 0 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.0
() -6 -5 -17 -17 -17 ROE 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.2
31 -177 -56 -67 -67 ROIC 11.7 12.2 13.5 13.8 13.6
() 137 -68 0 0 0 (%,)
() -107 -108 -56 -67 -67 / -6.9 -16.6 -21.3 -25.0 -29.1
109 108 56 67 67 167.1 170.9 179.4 184.4 190.8
() -545 153 443 406 507 33.5 152.3 25.3 27.0 27.5
2,542 1,997 2,150 2,593 2,999 ()
1,997 2,150 2,593 2,999 3,506 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Gross cash flow 1,326 1,506 911 954 957 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6
Gross investment 1,125 532 337 403 302 14.3 14.8 15.6 15.3
15.1
Free cash flow 201 974 574 551 656 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
:
-
29
Analyst |
(012630.KS)
//,
Tel. 368-6874 / [email protected]
. 1Q14 4.8
1Q17 3.5 . 2
,
, 2,500
.
2Q17 Preview: 1 2,405, 1,459 (OPM 11.8%)
2Q17 1 2,405(+2.7%YoY), 1,459(-
9.2%YoY)(OPM 11.9%) .
. ,
, 1Q17
.
BUY, 59,000 BUY 59,000 . 2016
.
.
. .
.
2017 (PER 10.2, PBR 1.2)
.
BUY()
(12M, ) 59,000
(5/22) 46,100
(: 2017. 5. 22)
KOSPI(pt) 2,304.0
KOSDAQ(pt) 642.6
() 5,000
() 3,475.2
52 /() 54,000 / 35,900
52 Beta 1.25
() 75,384
(3M,) 293
(3M,) 12,505
(16A, %) 0.0
(%) 49.6
(%)
8 18.6
9.3
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
6.3 8.7 4.8 7.7
KOSPI -0.1 -0.6 -11.4 -10.6
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
16.4 16.8 16.12
(,)
KOSPI(, p)
(12) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
() 4,603 4,750 4,882 4,865 4,800
() 390 517 545 528 510
() 324 460 503 495 479
() 239 331 367 361 350
EPS() 2,876 4,069 4,532 4,456 4,314
(%) 215 41 11 -2 -3
PER() 13.5 11.0 10.2 10.3 10.7
ROE(%) 10.5 13.3 13.3 11.7 10.1
PBR() 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA() 8.4 6.1 5.1 4.6 4.1
:
-
30
Analyst |
1. 2Q17 Preview: 1 2,405, 1,459
2Q17 1 2,405(+2.7%YoY), 1,459(-9.2%YoY)(OPM
11.9%) .
. , ,
1Q17 .
50
() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F
4Q17F
9,982 12,404 11,454 12,186 9,800 12,083 11,647 13,968 11,331
12,405 11,909 13,174
7,116 9,775 8,238 9,065 6,810 9,142 8,787 10,865 8,501 9,330
8,850 9,900
3,255 4,663 3,192 3,652 2,855 3,630 3,350 3,315 2,386 3,544
3,403 4,844
2,275 3,189 3,005 3,101 2,427 3,569 3,884 5,415 4,408 4,005
3,697 3,295
902 970 1,067 1,229 845 1,082 871 954 743 977 977 1,211
683 953 976 1,083 683 862 681 1,181 964 803 772 550
2,127 2,210 2,202 2,281 2,105 2,194 2,087 2,343 2,226 2,204
2,204 2,182
193 192 181 153 201 229 191 45 161 208 193 210
307 294 305 426 314 323 310 487 356 366 366 375
8,684 10,307 9,863 9,209 8,189 9,509 9,483 11,366 9,174 9,955
9,644 10,631
% 87.0 83.1 86.1 75.6 83.6 78.7 81.4 81.4 81.0 80.3 81.0
80.7
89.7 86.4 87.4 74.8 85.8 78.9 82.2 81.9 81.3 81.1 82.0 82.1
87.8 87.2 89.0 87.3 84.8 86.2 86.8 90.1 91.5 87.0 87.0 82.3
90.1 87.4 90.8 100.1 91.3 87.4 89.5 255.6 71.1 93.0 100.4
130.3
40.7 43.2 44.7 35.9 36.6 37.1 36.0 36.7 42.1 38.0 38.0 34.1
755 1,090 725 1,499 753 967 742 1,318 746 991 991 1,235
% 7.6 8.8 6.3 12.3 7.7 8.0 6.4 9.4 6.6 8.0 8.3 9.4
544 1,007 866 1,479 858 1,608 1,422 1,284 1,410 1,459 1,274
1,309
356 617 665 1,199 591 1,327 1,180 1,066 1,218 1,174 1,004
976
134 151 136 156 178 185 157 151 97 172 172 246
-25 -26 -31 -55 -24 -23 -23 -127 -7 -41 -57 -122
55 35 37 136 60 58 53 157 65 80 80 95
%OPM 5.5 8.1 7.6 12.1 8.8 13.3 12.2 9.2 12.4 11.8 10.7 9.9
5.0 6.3 8.1 13.2 8.7 14.5 13.4 9.8 14.3 12.6 11.3 9.9
6.3 6.8 6.2 6.8 8.5 8.4 7.5 6.5 4.3 7.8 7.8 11.3
-13.1 -13.5 -17.2 -35.9 -12.1 -9.8 -12.0 -281.6 -4.5 -19.8 -29.4
-58.0
18.0 11.9 12.0 31.8 19.0 17.9 17.1 32.3 18.3 21.9 21.9 25.3
456 1,057 1,021 709 677 1,606 1,240 1,072 1,376 1,340 1,154
1,163
322 781 765 518 485 1,200 884 740 1,028 986 868 790
: ,
-
31
Analyst |
2. ,
.
. 1Q14 4.8 1Q17 3.5
. 2 ,
, 2,500
. /
.
.
51 52
2,8
40
3,3
00
2,2
80 3,1
90
3,0
00
3,1
00
2,4
10 3
,590
3,8
80
5,4
20
4,4
10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
() /
4.3 4.1 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.5
13.3 13.9 15.3 15.3 15.9 15.9 15.3 14.7 15.4 16.2 15.9
0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.6
1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
: , : ,
53 () 54
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
()
: , : ,
-
32
Analyst |
3. Valuation
BUY 59,000 . 2016
.
.
. .
. 2017
(PER 10.2, PBR 1.2)
.
55 Valuation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
BPS 31,204 28,145 28,927 31,274 34,781 38,705 43,481 48,104
52,637 56,825
EPS -5 -2,768 913 2,876 4,069 4,532 4,456 4,314 4,230 3,908
%ROE 0.2 -9.0 3.9 10.5 13.3 13.3 11.7 10.1 9.0 7.7
TARGET PER() 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
TARGET PER() 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
() 13,698 43,138 61,034 67,974 66,844 64,715 63,448 58,623
() 18,263 57,517 81,378 90,632 89,125 86,286 84,597 78,165
TARGET PBR() 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8
TARGET PBR() 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9
() 11,204 32,883 46,234 51,332 50,704 48,735 47,532 43,634
() 12,885 37,815 53,170 59,000 58,310 56,046 54,661 50,179
PER() 64.6 20.5 14.5 13.0 13.2 13.7 13.9 15.1
PBR() 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0
PER() 49.6 13.5 11.0 10.2 10.3 10.7 10.7 11.6
PBR() 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
: ,
-
33
Analyst |
56
() 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
33,341 42,169 44,774 46,026 47,499 49,642 49,497 48,870 48,686
46,866
23,069 30,751 32,723 34,195 35,604 37,457 36,987 35,995 35,466
33,186
8,649 9,587 9,692 8,819 8,729 8,816 8,904 8,993 9,083 9,174
832 790 699 719 666 772 798 824 852 880
1,249 1,400 1,299 1,333 1,434 1,462 1,491 1,521 1,552 1,583
-459 -359 360 960 1,066 1,135 1,317 1,536 1,734 2,044
29,903 39,555 39,736 38,063 38,931 40,996 41,084 40,712 40,668
39,247
% 89.7 93.8 88.7 82.7 82.0 82.6 83.0 83.3 83.5 83.7
93.1 97.8 91.5 84.2 81.9 84.1 84.7 85.2 85.6 86.0
85.4 87.8 91.2 87.8 91.4 87.0 86.9 86.8 86.7 86.6
63.8 86.0 83.7 91.7 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.2 100.1 100.0
42.3 48.0 38.9 40.6 36.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0
180.6 198.6 -41.3 32.4 54.7 43.1 49.0 54.5 58.1 63.0
2,403 4,093 2,785 4,068 3,779 3,963 3,924 3,867 3,845 3,728
% 7.2 9.7 6.2 8.8 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0
1,038 -1,479 2,253 3,895 5,172 4,684 4,488 4,291 4,173 3,891
740 -1,900 1,444 2,837 4,164 3,603 3,375 3,144 2,991 2,673
262 321 401 577 671 686 701 717 732 748
-107 -102 -84 -137 -197 -227 -234 -240 -247 -254
138 151 264 263 328 320 333 345 358 372
5 50 229 356 205 301 313 326 339 352
%OPM 3.1 -3.5 5.0 8.5 10.9 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.3
3.2 -6.2 4.4 8.3 11.7 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.4 8.1
3.0 3.4 4.1 6.5 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2
-12.9 -12.9 -12.0 -19.1 -29.5 -29.4 -29.3 -29.2 -29.0 -28.9
11.0 10.8 20.3 19.7 22.9 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.5
-1.1 -13.8 63.6 37.1 19.3 26.5 23.8 21.2 19.5 17.2
412 -2,419 1,217 3,243 4,595 4,262 4,157 3,978 3,861 3,474
53 -2,012 833 2,386 3,310 3,112 3,035 2,904 2,819 2,536
31,569 19,948 26,360 56,650 39,510 33,919 34,605 35,318 36,058
31,205
8,452 8,126 5,860 12,280 6,990 6,641 6,508 6,378 6,250 5,937
10,255 3,330 10,680 31,280 27,030 21,624 22,273 22,941 23,629
18,903
6,648 5,259 2,550 7,650 3,250 3,348 3,448 3,551 3,658 3,768
6,213 3,232 7,270 5,440 2,240 2,307 2,376 2,448 2,521 2,597
122,899 115,127 203,540 228,360 237,117 236,858 237,513 239,707
243,060 243,763
32,338 32,865 41,480 40,510 35,560 29,873 25,792 22,837 20,674
18,925
63,374 59,723 138,990 158,700 173,735 179,954 185,176 190,566
196,130 198,468
17,323 14,900 9,220 12,830 12,135 11,612 11,295 11,135 11,095
11,147
9,864 7,639 13,850 16,320 15,686 15,419 15,250 15,169 15,163
15,223
: ,
-
34
Analyst |
57 PER BAND CHART
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
17.0
5
PER BandPrice
9.0
13.0
17.0
21.0
:
58 PBR BAND CHART
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
17.0
5
PBR BandPrice
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
:
-
35
Analyst |
(012630.KS)
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F (:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
3,409 3,645 3,824 4,119 4,422 4,603 4,750 4,882 4,865 4,800
742 1,340 1,692 2,071 2,394 (%) 3 3 3 -0 -1
1,168 1,070 954 903 889 796 895 942 920 897
998 768 706 669 658 (%) 17 19 19 19 19
2,101 2,139 2,202 2,266 2,331 407 378 396 392 387
1,242 1,272 1,324 1,378 1,434 (%) 46 -7 5 -1 -1
844 851 861 871 879 390 517 545 528 510
15 16 17 17 18 (%) 73 33 5 -3 -3
5,510 5,785 6,026 6,385 6,753 EBITDA 432 559 588 571 554
2,020 2,264 2,192 2,172 2,173 (%) 62 29 5 -3 -3
584 592 512 484 477 -65 -58 -42 -33 -31
838 888 888 888 888 28 36 23 24 24
0 0 0 0 0 64 47 47 47 47
1,020 766 783 802 821 -0 -3 0 0 0
482 328 328 328 328 2 -6 -3 6 8
534 434 452 470 489 -30 -37 -15 -15 -16
3,039 3,030 2,975 2,974 2,994 324 460 503 495 479
377 377 377 377 377 86 129 136 134 129
179 179 179 179 179 0 0 0 0 0
-115 -119 -139 -139 -139 239 331 367 361 350
-84 -84 -84 -84 -84 (%) 186 39 11 -2 -3
1,917 2,186 2,501 2,861 3,210 (%) 5 7 8 7 7
2,471 2,755 3,051 3,411 3,759 EPS 2,876 4,069 4,532 4,456
4,314
1,320 1,216 1,216 1,216 1,216 (%) 215 41 11 -2 -3
() 578 -124 -475 -855 -1,177 EPS 2,876 4,069 4,532 4,456
4,314
2,501 2,076 1,998 1,955 1,957 (%) 215 41 11 -2 -3
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F (:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
1,028 840 532 482 424 ()
324 460 367 361 350 EPS 2,876 4,069 4,532 4,456 4,314
43 42 43 43 44 BPS 31,274 34,781 38,705 43,481 48,104
-6 7 21 12 11 DPS 500 0 20 20 20
540 316 101 65 20 (,%)
() 110 39 116 51 14 PER 13.5 11.0 10.2 10.3 10.7
() 575 344 61 38 10 PBR 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
() -15 -41 -80 -28 -7 PCR 5.3 5.4 8.1 8.3 8.6
-130 -25 3 3 3 EV/ EBITDA 8.4 6.1 5.1 4.6 4.1
-64 -89 -136 -109 -109 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
() 17 13 -8 -8 -8 (%)
() 0 0 -46 -17 -16 8.5 10.9 11.2 10.9 10.6
-24 -50 -51 -51 -50 EBITDA 9.4 11.8 12.0 11.7 11.5
0 1 0 0 0 5.2 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.3
() -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 ROE 10.5 13.3 13.3 11.7 10.1
-665 -146 -52 -1 -1 ROIC 9.9 16.3 19.5 19.5 19.0
() -641 -103 0 0 0 (%,)
() -25 -40 -52 -1 -1 / 23.4 -4.5 -15.6 -25.1 -31.3
25 40 52 1 1 168.8 161.0 174.5 189.6 203.5
() 300 605 344 371 314 10.6 44.6 22.8 22.3 21.7
248 548 1,152 1,496 1,868 ()
548 1,152 1,496 1,868 2,182 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Gross cash flow 552 630 431 417 404 3.4 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4
Gross investment -459 -215 28 36 81 3.7 5.4 6.6 7.1 7.2
Free cash flow 1,011 844 403 381 324 7.6 8.1 8.8 9.8 10.0
:
-
36
Analyst |
(047040.KS)
//,
Tel. 368-6874 / [email protected]
()
2017 :
2017 . 2(1,399
) , 5 7 1 8,883 . 2
(, 7,497), 3(, 5,328)
. 2017 (1 7,310)
.
2Q17 Preview: 3 1,300, 2,719 (OPM 8.7%)
2Q17 3 1,300(+3.4%YoY), 2,719
(+156.6%YoY) . 1Q17 ,
. 2016
.
() 1Q17 . ,
,
.
BUY, 9,000 BUY 9,000 . 2017
5 . (2, 7), 1
(1), (2) .
. PBR 1.2
.
. PBR
BUY()
(12M, ) 9,000
(5/22) 8,070
(: 2017. 5. 22)
KOSPI(pt) 2,304.0
KOSDAQ(pt) 642.6
() 5,000
() 3,354.1
52 /() 8,070 / 5,050
52 Beta 1.36
() 415,623
(3M,) 1,140
(3M,) 7,966
(16A, %) 0.0
(%) 9.7
(%)
1 50.8
12.3
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
13.5 29.5 46.7 37.2
KOSPI 7.1 20.2 30.6 18.9
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
16.5 16.9 17.1
(,)
KOSPI(, p)
(12) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
() 9,890 11,106 12,038 10,007 9,654
() 169 -467 1,026 572 566
() 119 -1,011 973 520 513
() 105 -755 727 388 383
EPS() 255 -1,770 1,704 910 899
(%) -20 -47 -1
PER() 22.0 - 4.7 8.9 9.0
ROE(%) 3.9 -31.7 30.4 13.3 11.8
PBR() 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA() 17.5 - 5.6 8.1 7.7
:
-
37
Analyst |
()
1. 2017 :
2017 . 2(1,399) , 5
7 1 8,883 . 2(, 7,497), 3(,
5,328) . 2017
(1 7,310) .
. , 2017 1 /GS
.
59 2017
(m2) ()
/
2017-01-24 2 55,688 1,499 1,399 /
2017-03-13 1 306,885 9,777 14,821 (70%)/(30%)
2017-03-14 2 54,653 1,305 2,315 (55%)/(45%)
2017-03-27 1 96,128 1,571 4,145 GS
2017-05-13 7 47,821 949 1,676
: ,
60 7,
:
-
38
Analyst |
2. 2Q17 Preview: 3 1,300, 2,719
2Q17 3 1,300(+3.4%YoY), 2,719(+156.6%YoY)
. 1Q17 , . 2016
.
() 1Q17 . ,
,
.
61
() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F
4Q17F
21,938 25,776 25,653 25,533 25,699 30,284 28,177 26,899 26,401
31,300 28,919 33,764
2,442 3,096 3,107 3,451 2,642 3,063 3,077 3,367 2,678 2,741
2,530 2,594
4,915 5,635 4,734 3,514 4,741 5,615 5,742 6,690 5,221 6,152
5,679 6,610
INFRA 2,260 2,631 3,105 3,325 3,917 3,279 3,409 1,156 2,555
2,663 2,458 2,567
7,145 8,310 7,661 8,365 6,657 9,385 8,277 9,925 9,248 11,685
10,786 13,222
/ 4,786 5,789 6,651 6,977 7,399 8,257 7,122 5,139 6,318 7,372
6,805 7,860
20,424 23,818 23,332 25,737 24,129 27,992 25,718 32,269 23,307
27,468 25,355 29,517
% 93.1 92.4 91.0 100.8 93.9 92.4 91.3 120.0 88.3 87.8 87.7
87.4
95.3 95.6 95.2 105.8 94.7 94.1 103.3 112.0 99.6 96.4 96.4
93.2
92.8 92.1 95.6 109.5 87.6 88.9 90.8 85.9 87.8 83.8 83.8 80.7
INFRA 113.8 97.0 86.1 92.3 99.1 113.3 85.6 273.8 84.6 93.1 93.1
101.5
86.9 86.0 86.5 82.7 86.6 81.3 83.6 84.8 84.4 82.2 82.2 80.6
/ 106.5 98.6 93.5 96.3 103.2 100.8 100.7 209.9 94.6 97.2 97.2
99.3
932 915 1,121 931 964 1,232 1,483 1,943 884 1,112 1,177
1,306
% 4.2 3.6 4.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 5.3 7.2 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.9
582 1,043 1,200 609 605 1,060 977 -7,314 2,211 2,719 2,387
2,941
108 130 143 -205 137 178 -104 -411 9 95 87 174
343 436 196 -346 588 622 524 943 623 979 902 1,256
INFRA -189 -452 -199 -269 -535 -1,141 -360 -3,354 140 -148 -149
-464
936 1,158 1,032 1,447 894 1,754 1,356 1,509 1,431 2,070 1,909
2,547
/ -589 -198 74 16 -444 -339 -380 -5,935 0 -237 -253 -422
%OPM 2.7 4.0 4.7 2.4 2.4 3.5 3.5 -27.2 8.4 8.7 8.3 8.7
4.4 4.2 4.6 -5.9 5.2 5.8 -3.4 -12.2 0.3 3.5 3.4 6.7
7.0 7.7 4.1 -9.8 12.4 11.1 9.1 14.1 11.9 15.9 15.9 19.0
INFRA -8.4 -17.2 -6.4 -8.1 -13.7 -34.8 -10.6 -290.1 5.5 -5.6
-6.1 -18.1
13.1 13.9 13.5 17.3 13.4 18.7 16.4 15.2 15.5 17.7 17.7 19.3
/ -12.3 -3.4 1.1 0.2 -6.0 -4.1 -5.3 -115.5 0.0 -3.2 -3.7
-5.4
309 767 289 -170 -194 446 458 -10,821 2,227 2,536 2,203
2,765
208 781 207 -149 -192 368 429 -8,154 1,919 1,796 1,464 2,086
: ,
-
39
Analyst |
3. Valuation
BUY 9,000 . 2017 5
. (2, 7), 1 (1), (2)
. . 2018
ROE 13.3% . PBR 1.2
. .
PBR .
62 Valuation
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
BPS 6,327 6,582 4,888 6,599 7,433 8,155 8,954 9,903
EPS 319 255 -1,770 1,704 910 899 876 1,023
%ROE 5.0 3.9 -31.7 30.4 13.3 11.8 10.5 11.1
TARGET PER() 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
TARGET PER() 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
() 2,230 1,784 -12,393 11,927 6,373 6,290 6,131 7,158
() 3,186 2,548 -17,705 17,039 9,104 8,986 8,759 10,226
TARGET PBR() 0.2 0.2 -1.6 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6
TARGET PBR() 0.5 0.4 -2.9 2.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
() 1,570 1,284 -7,741 10,042 4,947 4,823 4,703 5,510
() 2,858 2,336 -14,088 18,277 9,000 8,778 8,559 10,028
PER() 28.3 35.3 -5.1 5.3 9.9 10.0 10.3 8.8
PBR() 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
PER() 24.5 22.0 - 4.7 8.9 9.0 8.9 7.6
PBR() 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
: ,
-
40
Analyst |
63
() 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
82,234 87,822 99,950 98,900 111,059 120,385 100,072 96,539
93,904 92,473
13,596 13,921 12,816 12,096 12,149 10,543 10,275 9,963 9,624
9,268
16,408 23,376 23,259 18,798 22,788 23,662 23,714 23,333 22,691
21,901
INFRA 6,106 11,321 11,761 10,243 8,903 7,792 6,859 6,065
14,786 19,998 28,581 31,481 34,244 44,941 29,413 29,658 30,019
30,481
/ 36,595 29,639 27,721 24,202 27,917 28,356 25,047 22,992 21,825
21,296
74,039 84,422 92,314 93,312 110,109 105,647 89,484 86,255 83,905
82,428
% 90.0 96.1 92.4 94.3 99.1 87.8 89.4 89.3 89.4 89.1
89.5 92.0 95.0 98.3 101.5 96.4 96.2 96.0 95.9 95.7
96.1 105.5 92.6 96.4 88.2 83.8 85.5 85.3 85.1 85.0
INFRA 91.0 95.4 116.3 93.1 93.2 93.3 93.3 93.4
95.7 96.1 87.4 85.4 83.9 82.2 84.7 85.1 85.5 85.9
/ 89.3 97.8 100.2 98.1 121.5 97.2 97.7 98.2 98.7 98.6
4,739 5,847 3,367 3,899 5,623 4,480 4,863 4,629 4,475 4,726
% 5.8 6.7 3.4 3.9 5.1 3.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.1
3,457 -2,447 4,270 3,434 -4,672 10,258 5,725 5,656 5,524
5,320
198 -272 571 176 -200 365 366 374 380 383
433 -1,508 1,702 629 2,677 3,759 3,370 3,356 3,302 3,225
INFRA -215 -1,110 -5,391 -621 -726 -643 -572 -512
596 757 3,579 4,574 5,513 7,956 4,482 4,394 4,319 4,256
/ 2,333 -1,264 -1,279 -698 -7,098 -911 -926 -962 -1,021 -975
%OPM 4.2 -2.8 4.3 3.5 -4.2 8.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8
1.5 -2.0 4.5 1.5 -1.6 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1
2.6 -6.5 7.3 3.3 11.7 15.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7
INFRA -3.5 -9.8 -45.8 -6.1 -8.2 -8.3 -8.3 -8.4
4.0 3.8 12.5 14.5 16.1 17.7 15.2 14.8 14.4 14.0
/ 6.4 -4.3 -4.6 -2.9 -25.4 -3.2 -3.7 -4.2 -4.7 -4.6
2,279 -8,397 1,838 1,195 -10,111 9,731 5,199 5,132 5,002
5,840
1,730 -7,180 1,297 1,046 -7,549 7,265 3,882 3,832 3,735
4,361
: ,
64 PBR BAND CHART
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
PBR Band
Price
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
:
-
41
Analyst |
(047040.KS)
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F (:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
6,600 6,359 6,925 6,675 6,733 9,890 11,106 12,038 10,007
9,654
788 1,109 306 988 1,196 (%) -1 12 8 -17 -4
3,298 2,938 3,971 3,296 3,179 559 95 1,474 1,059 1,028
1,293 1,239 1,564 1,298 1,252 (%) 6 1 12 11 11
3,463 3,611 3,926 4,179 4,414 390 562 448 486 463
2,410 2,793 2,907 3,025 3,148 (%) 16 44 -20 9 -5
936 731 935 1,072 1,187 169 -467 1,026 572 566
120 87 84 82 80 (%) -60 -44 -1
10,064 9,970 10,851 10,854 11,147 EBITDA 241 -371 1,127 691
697
4,674 6,608 6,733 6,342 6,286 (%) -50 -39 1
1,887 2,665 2,375 1,971 1,901 -49 -544 -53 -53 -52
1,635 2,634 3,036 3,036 3,036 26 26 31 31 31
0 0 0 0 0 97 93 80 79 79
2,596 1,292 1,337 1,384 1,433 -1 -13 0 0 0
988 177 177 177 177 -19 -6 3 3 3
1,609 1,115 1,160 1,207 1,256 43 -457 -6 -7 -8
7,270 7,900 8,070 7,726 7,719 119 -1,011 973 520 513
2,078 2,078 2,078 2,078 2,078 15 -256 247 132 130
550 550 550 550 550 0 0 0 0 0
-250 -233 -249 -249 -249 105 -755 727 388 383
-102 -102 -102 -102 -102 (%) -19 -47 -1
358 -363 364 710 1,010 (%) 1 -7 6 4 4
2,793 2,070 2,781 3,128 3,428 EPS 255 -1,770 1,704 910 899
2,622 2,811 3,213 3,213 3,213 (%) -20 -47 -1
() 1,834 1,701 2,906 2,225 2,016 EPS 255 -1,770 1,704 910
899
4,172 3,360 5,260 4,908 4,981 (%) -20 -47 -1
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
685 359 -777 1,091 655 ()
105 -755 727 388 383 EPS 255 -1,770 1,704 910 899
72 97 101 118 132 BPS 6,582 4,888 6,599 7,433 8,155
42 141 42 44 46 DPS 0 0 100 200 100
382 597 -1,646 540 95 (,%)
() 491 -41 -1,034 676 116 PER 22.0 - 4.7 8.9 9.0
() 145 513 -325 266 46 PBR 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0
() 63 677 -291 -404 -70 PCR 6.7 - 3.9 6.1 6.0
-318 -553 2 2 2 EV/ EBITDA 17.5 - 5.6 8.1 7.7
-541 -262 -440 -380 -376 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.5 1.2
() -41 -23 -12 -12 -13 (%)
() 0 0 -29 -14 -15 1.7 -4.2 8.5 5.7 5.9
-441 -274 -297 -247 -238 EBITDA 2.4 -3.3 9.4 6.9 7.2
6 6 0 0 0 1.1 -6.8 6.0 3.9 4.0
() -5 -4 -6 -6 -6 ROE 3.9 -31.7 30.4 13.3 11.8
69 174 402 -42 -83 ROIC 3.4 -9.0 17.8 8.4 8.5
() 21 174 402 0 0 (%,)
() 0 0 0 -42 -83 / 65.7 82.2 104.5 71.1 58.8
0 0 0 42 83 141.2 96.2 102.9 105.3 107.1
() 213 278 -815 669 196 2.4 -6.9 20.7 11.8 11.8
326 539 817 2 671 ()
539 817 2 671 867 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9
Gross cash flow 347 -160 870 550 560 2.8 3.6 3.5 2.8 3.0
Gross investment 118 -359 2,075 -173 269 7.8 8.8 8.6 7.0 7.6
Free cash flow 228 198 -1,205 723 292 6.7 4.9 4.8 4.6 5.0
:
-
42
Analyst |
SK(210980.KS)
//,
Tel. 368-6874 / [email protected]
SK
SK :
SK .
SK
. SK 136(2016)
. 10 500MW
SK '
' .
2Q17 Preview: 850, 118(OPM 13.9%)
SK 2Q17 850(+45.9%YoY), 118
(+143.3%YoY)(OPM 13.9%) . /
, V1, W
. ( 500)
, 2017
.
BUY, 40,000 SK BUY 40,000 .
. , (2016
21.4%) , (2016) (
263672)
3% SK
.
BUY()
(12M, ) 40,000
(5/22) 31,050
(: 2017. 5. 22)
KOSPI(pt) 2,304.0
KOSDAQ(pt) 642.6
() 1,000
() 501.6
52 /() 60,700 / 26,500
52 Beta 0.24
() 16,155
(3M,) 32
(3M,) 1,038
(16A, %) 1.8
(%) 0.9
(%)
SK() 1 55.0
13.5
(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M
10.3 19.8 10.7 -16.6
KOSPI 3.9 10.4 -5.5 -34.9
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
16.5 16.9 17.1
(,)
KOSPI(, p)
(12) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
() 231.3 276.4 353.6 534.6 449.0
() 26.9 40.4 42.9 56.1 48.4
() 26.2 34.5 88.4 76.3 55.7
() 20.2 26.3 67.2 58.0 42.4
EPS() 1,300 1,686 4,297 3,698 2,701
(%) -90.6 29.7 146.5 -13.6 -27.0
PER() 33.3 17.5 7.2 8.4 11.5
ROE(%) 13.5 13.5 27.9 20.1 13.2
PBR() 3.9 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0
EV/EBITDA() 34.2 20.7 19.5 15.2 19.0
:
-
43
Analyst |
SK
1. SK :
SK .
, . ,
SK .
SK (30MW) / ( 1MW)
. 2016 136 .
, 2017 (60.6MW) 2019 5
. , , 2017 EPC( 1,601)
, 2019 5 .
136/ , 55% . , 75
. 350
. 10 500MW
SK '' .
65
(MW) (MW)
()
2007.12 21.0 1.5~3.0 VESTAS
2005.03 39.6 1.7 VESTAS
2006.09 98.0 2.0 VESTAS
2008.11 40.0 2.0 VESTAS
2008.12 61.5 1.5 ACCIONA
1 2009.03 12.0 2.0 VESTAS
2009.09 33.0 3.0 VESTAS
1 2010.05 22.0 2.0~3.0 //
2012.03 15.0 0.75~1.5 //
2012.05 18.0 2.0 /
2012.11 16.8 2.4
2012.12 18.0 2.0
2 2013.09 24.0 2.0
2013.09 40.0 2.0 GEC
2014.04 20.0 2.0
2014.05 10.5 5.0~5.5 /
2014.08 10.0 2.5
SK 2015.01 30.0 3.0 SKD&D SIEMENS
2015.05 40.0 2.0
2015.05 30.0 2.0
2015.05 30.0 3.0 ALSTOM
GS 2015.08 59.4 3.3 GSE&R VESTAS
: ,
-
44
Analyst |
2. 2Q17 Preview: 850, 118 (OPM 13.9%)
2Q17 850(+45.9%YoY), 118(+143.3%YoY)(OPM 13.9%)
. / , V1, W
, 106
. (
500) , 2017
.
66 SK
() 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F
4Q17F
457 591 611 654 530 583 571 1,079 774 850 901 1,010
390 543 521 556 448 525 531 834 621 663 656 673
36 18 36 33 52 22 17 155 97 128 189 283
31 30 54 65 31 36 23 90 56 59 56 54
330 457 442 499 394 438 436 693 542 686 694 746
% 72.2 77.3 72.4 76.2 74.3 75.1 76.2 64.4 67.6 71.8 72.8
80.9
63 55 50 148 106 96 77 117 129 122 138 112
% 13.9 9.3 8.2 22.6 20.1 16.6 13.5 10.9 16.7 14.3 15.3 11.1
64 79 118 8 30 49 58 267 122 118 108 81
86 100 127 30 30 86 91 186 114 104 99 67
0 0 11 6 28 -3 -2 131 36 40 34 36
1 2 3 6 3 -1 0 18 6 6 6 5
%OPM 13.9 13.4 19.4 1.2 5.7 8.4 10.2 24.7 15.7 13.9 11.9 8.0
22.1 18.5 24.4 5.4 6.7 16.5 17.2 22.3 18.4 15.7 15.1 10.0
0.5 2.2 30.5 17.9 54.5 -14.4 -9.7 84.1 37.5 30.8 18.0 12.7
1.7 5.0 5.7 9.8 10.4 -4.0 0.2 19.9 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.5
81 70 97 13 46 35 55 207 123 602 100 59
17 17 23 3 12 9 14 46 38 136 23 14
% 20.7 24.8 23.8 23.1 25.2 26.2 24.7 22.4 31.2 22.6 23.4
24.6
64 53 74 10 35 26 42 161 84 466 76 44
: SK,
-
45
Analyst |
3. Valuation
SK BUY 40,000 . SK 2 .
,
. ,
2019 .
SK .
2017 PER 7.2, PBR 2.5.
2019 PER 11.5, PBR 2.0 ,
. , (2016 21.4%)
, (2016) ( 263672)
3% SK
.
67 SK Valuation
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
BPS 52,722 78,329 11,061 13,056 12,667 14,411 15,529 16,729
18,063
EPS 6,043 13,816 1,300 1,686 3,213 2,775 2,027 1,906 2,043
%ROE 10.0 20.1 13.5 13.5 27.8 19.9 13.1 11.5 11.4
TARGET PER() 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 17.0
TARGET PER() 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 21.0 22.0
() 90,643 207,233 19,507 25,297 48,193 41,622 30,398 30,492
34,731
() 120,857 276,310 26,009 33,730 64,257 55,497 40,531 40,021
44,945
TARGET PBR() 1.0 2.0 1.3 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.1
TARGET PBR() 2.0 3.9 2.6 2.7 5.4 3.9 2.6 2.2 2.2
() 52,922 157,249 14,927 17,664 35,189 28,675 20,409 19,191
20,595
() 103,727 308,209 29,257 34,621 68,970 56,203 40,000 37,615
40,366
PER() 6.6 2.9 30.8 23.7 12.5 14.4 19.7 21.0 19.6
PBR() 0.8 0.5 3.6 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2
PER() 4.8 2.1 33.3 17.5 7.2 8.4 11.5 15.4 14.3
PBR() 0.6 0.4 3.9 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6
: SK,
68 Coverage Valuation
ROE(2017F) PREMIUM PBR
MITSUBISHI ESTATE 6.2 3.5 4.5 2.2 2.8
DAIWA HOUSE 11.7 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.7
12.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.6
30.9 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.5
21.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0
:
-
46
Analyst |
69 SK
() 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
1,596 1,301 1,749 2,313 2,764 3,536 5,346 4,490 3,930 3,399
1,231 963 1,595 2,010 2,337 2,614 3,270 2,379 1,880 2,080
142 209 20 123 246 697 1,847 1,916 1,851 1,116
223 129 133 181 180 225 230 195 199 203
1,297 991 1,296 1,728 1,962 2,606 4,102 3,379 2,904 2,448
% 81.3 76.2 74.1 74.7 71.0 73.7 76.7 75.3 73.9 72.0
203 214 201 316 398 501 683 627 584 474
% 12.7 16.5 11.5 13.7 14.4 14.2 12.8 14.0 14.9 14.0
95 95 252 269 404 429 561 484 442 477
112 148 331 344 393 384 515 349 311 344
5 11 -18 17 154 146 140 214 215 184
39 8 12 12 20 22 39 33 34 51
-60 -70 -74 -104 -163 -124 -134 -112 -118 -102
%OPM 6.0 7.3 14.4 11.6 14.6 12.1 10.5 10.8 11.3 14.0
9.1 15.4 20.8 17.1 16.8 14.7 15.8 14.7 16.5 16.5
3.6 5.4 -88.4 14.2 62.5 20.9 7.6 11.1 11.6 16.5
17.3 6.5 9.0 6.4 10.9 10.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 25.0
-22 5 -22 -7 -59 455 202 74 82 85
73 100 229 262 345 884 763 557 524 562
47 78 191 202 263 672 580 424 398 427
: SK,
-
47
Analyst |
70 SK PER BAND CHART
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
17.0
5
PER Band
Price
10.0
14.0
18.0
22.0
:
71 SK PBR BAND CHART
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
15.0
5
15.0
7
15.0
9
15.1
1
16.0
1
16.0
3
16.0
5
16.0
7
16.0
9
16.1
1
17.0
1
17.0
3
17.0
5
PBR Band
Price1.82.22.63.0
:
-
48
Analyst |
SK(210980.KS)
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F (:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
574 802 1,059 1,013 1,055 231 276 354 535 449
104 74 205 123 45 (%) 32 19 28 51 -16
21 82 130 139 171 59 80 88 124 111
427 268 343 366 450 (%) 25 29 25 23 25
181 219 212 213 214 32 40 45 68 63
88 130 128 133 138 (%) 57 26 14 50 -8
89 84 79 74 70 27 40 43 56 48
4 5 5 5 6 (%) 7 50 6 31 -14
755 1,021 1,271 1,226 1,269 EBITDA 33 46 48 61 53
65 481 415 512 530 (%) 21 41 5 27 -13
30 46 68 72 89 -1 -6 45 20 7
20 232 143 233 233 1 3 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 3 9 10 8 8
436 255 512 332 333 -1 -1 2 0 0
425 244 500 320 320 0 2 53 28 14
11 11 12 12 13 2 -1 -2 -1 -1
501 736 927 844 863 26 34 88 76 56
11 11 16 16 16 6 8 21 18 13
83 89 89 89 89 0 0 0 0 0
2 5 3 3 3 20 26 67 58 42
0 0 0 0 0 (%) 5 31 155 -14 -27
83 106 162 200 224 (%) 9 10 19 11 9
254 286 345 382 406 EPS 1,300 1,686 3,224 2,775 2,027
445 476 643 553 553 (%) -91 30 91 -14 -27
() 341 403 438 430 508 EPS 1,300 1,686 3,224 2,775 2,027
576 628 718 745 844 (%) -91 30 91 -14 -27
(:) 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F
2019F
-226 -143 -95 7 -68 ()
20 26 67 58 42 EPS 1,300 1,686 3,224 2,775 2,027
6 6 5 5 5 BPS 11,061 13,056 12,667 14,411 15,529
2 -1 -53 -27 -13 DPS 400 530 950 850 650
-247 -167 -103 -29 -101 (,%)
() 67 -62 -48 -9 -32 PER 33.3 17.5 7.2 8.4 11.5
() -302 -118 -81 -23 -84 PBR 3.9 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0
() -17 47 5 5 17 PCR 17.8 9.7 34.8 18.6 19.8
5 -35 21 -2 -2 EV/ EBITDA 34.2 20.7 19.5 15.2 19.0
-39 -87 64 21 7 0.9 1.8 3.1 2.7 2.1
() -15 -31 10 -1 -1 (%)
() -9 0 47 25 11 11.6 14.6 12.1 10.5 10.8
-3 -0 -0 -0 -0 EBITDA 14.1 16.6 13.6 11.4 11.8
0 0 0 0 0 8.7 9.5 19.0 10.8 9.4
() -1 -1 -0 -0 -0 ROE 13.5 13.5 27.8 19.9 13.1
344 194 170 -110 -18 ROIC 4.8 5.1 4.8 5.8 4.6
() 231 198 165 -90 0 (%,)
() 113 -4 5 -20 -18 / 134.1 141.0 127.1 112.5 125.0
4 4 0 20 18 889.3 166.9 255.2 198.0 199.0
() 79 -61 146 -82 -79 13.8 6.9 5.5 9.3 9.4
23 102 41 188 105 ()
102 41 188 105 27 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Gross cash flow 38 49 19 36 34 4.2 5.4 3.3 4.0 2.9
Gross investment 271 223 49 7 93 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.1
Free cash flow -232 -175 -30 29 -60 7.2 7.3 6.2 7.6 5.6
:
![GS건설 (006360) - file.mk.co.krfile.mk.co.kr/imss/write/20190709135640__00.pdf · Daily News GS건설 2 GS건설의 분기별 영업실적 추이 및 전망 [K-IFRS 연결 기준]](https://img.pdfslide.tips/doc/110x75/5e0f74cd443ad6057239e1b6/gse-006360-filemkco-daily-news-gse-2-gse-eee-.jpg)
![Top down Bottom up · 2019-03-19 · 기업 분석 GS건설 (006360/매수) [오경석] 해외 플랜트 수주 역량만 증명한다면 스몰캡 이슈 빛이 나는 성장주](https://img.pdfslide.tips/doc/110x75/5e376c15a42dc727d327a514/top-down-bottom-up-2019-03-19-e-e-gse-006360e-e.jpg)
