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Taller # 7
Caculo del MTBF
CalcularCalcular el MTBF y la rata de falla
Cual es la probabilidad que falle antes de las 200 horas.
Cual es la confiabilidad en 300 horas.
Datos de falla del siguiente Equipo son: 30, 31, 14, 2, 26, 25, 22, 7 en dias.
Si el costo de la falla es de Col$ 26’670.000 y el costos del mantto preventivo es de $ 1’590.000, cual es el tiempo óptimo para hacer el mantenimiento?.
Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial
MTBF = 1
Rata de falla 1.0000
Tiempo Exponencial1 #NAME?2 0.143 0.054 0.025 0.016 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.00
10 0.0011 0.0012 0.0013 0.0014 0.0015 0.0016 0.0017 0.0018 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0022 0.0023 0.0024 0.0025 0.0026 0.0027 0.0028 0.0029 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038 0.0039 0.0040 0.0041 0.0042 0.0043 0.0044 0.0045 0.0046 0.0047 0.0048 0.0049 0.0050 0.0051 0.0052 0.0053 0.0054 0.0055 0.0056 0.0057 0.0058 0.0059 0.0060 0.0061 0.0062 0.0063 0.0064 0.0065 0.0066 0.0067 0.0068 0.00
69 0.0070 0.0071 0.0072 0.0073 0.0074 0.0075 0.0076 0.0077 0.0078 0.0079 0.0080 0.0081 0.0082 0.0083 0.0084 0.0085 0.0086 0.0087 0.0088 0.0089 0.0090 0.0091 0.0092 0.0093 0.0094 0.0095 0.0096 0.0097 0.0098 0.0099 0.00100 0.00
Simulación por Monte Carlo de Confiabilidad Exponencial
A : distribucion exponencial con MTTF=137 dias
landa = 1/137 = 0.0073Landa= 0.0037
s Aleatorio Exponencial1 0.885 32.892 0.484 196.093 0.510 181.884 0.764 72.895 0.168 482.576 0.769 70.897 0.216 414.798 0.526 173.639 0.097 629.56
10 0.025 994.6211 0.026 981.9012 0.174 472.6513 0.584 145.2714 0.519 177.3315 0.684 102.5716 0.084 668.2817 0.496 189.3018 0.103 615.1719 0.940 16.7420 0.052 797.0821 0.753 76.7722 0.976 6.4523 0.642 119.8224 0.790 63.8125 0.786 65.2126 0.287 337.2227 0.439 222.2728 0.872 37.0829 0.642 119.8230 0.426 230.5131 0.777 68.1032 0.195 442.0733 0.617 130.5634 0.062 750.8435 0.693 99.0236 0.785 65.4537 0.375 265.0038 0.115 584.5639 0.204 430.2140 0.376 264.3741 0.787 64.7942 0.330 299.7143 0.272 351.4344 0.805 58.7645 0.501 186.9246 0.006 1388.1147 0.463 208.3048 0.279 344.9849 0.997 0.7250 0.876 35.9251 0.211 420.9852 0.458 211.1353 0.813 55.8154 0.898 28.9655 0.130 550.6356 0.969 8.5157 0.179 464.7758 0.265 358.9659 0.130 551.1260 0.536 168.7261 0.240 385.4762 0.619 129.4663 0.116 582.8064 0.758 74.7165 0.901 28.0966 0.069 721.7967 0.640 120.5168 0.169 480.4869 0.829 50.6770 0.192 445.3671 0.400 247.4772 0.886 32.86
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Exponencial
Exponencial
X= (-1/landa)*{ln (aleatorio)}Aleatorios
s Aleatorio Exponencial
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Exponencial
Exponencial
73 0.051 802.0674 0.483 196.5375 0.778 67.7676 0.065 740.7577 0.770 70.6178 0.527 173.3479 0.525 174.1080 0.113 588.8581 0.727 86.0482 0.513 180.5783 0.383 259.0984 0.750 77.7185 0.771 70.4586 0.344 288.7087 0.186 454.3588 0.576 149.1689 0.124 564.2490 0.767 71.6191 0.056 776.8592 0.264 359.7693 0.578 148.2194 0.747 78.9395 0.490 192.7196 0.983 4.6997 0.921 22.2998 0.541 165.9799 0.972 7.69100 0.968 8.71Prob 0.6627260224486
0.17224225593730.0923744499965
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Exponencial
Exponencial
Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
Calculo de la Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial
CALCULO DE CONFIABILIDAD TIEMPO RELIABILITY
MTBF (dias)= 365.00 0 1.0000 .0000
Rata de falla = 0.002740 40 .8962 .1038
Tiempo Probabilidad falla Reliability 80 .8032 .19680 1.0000 .0000 120 .7198 .28025 .9864 .0136 160 .6451 .3549
10 .9730 .0270 200 .5781 .421915 .9597 .0403 240 .5181 .481920 .9467 .0533 280 .4643 .535725 .9338 .0662 320 .4161 .583930 .9211 .0789 360 .3730 .627035 .9086 .0914 400 .3342 .665840 .8962 .1038 440 .2995 .7005
1,000 .0646 .9354 480 .2685 .7315Reliability Dias FFI 520 .2406 .7594
0.01 1,681 722.70 560 .2156 .78440.1 840 657.00 600 .1932 .80680.5 253 365.00 640 .1732 .82680.6 186 292.00 680 .1552 .84480.7 130 219.00 720 .1391 .86090.8 81 146.00 760 .1247 .87530.9 38 73.00 800 .1117 .8883
0.99 4 7.30 840 .1001 .8999
0.999 0 0.73 880 .0897 .9103920 .0804 .9196
CALCULOS DE CONFIABILIDAD - METODO DE DISTRIBUCION EXPONENCIAL960 .0721 .9279
R=1 - EXP^(-t/MTBF) 1,000 .0646 .9354
PROBABILIDA DE FALLA
Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
1,040 .0579 .9421CALCULOS DE MANTENIBILIDAD, FAILURE-FINDING TASK 1,080 .0519 .9481
FFI=2*(1-R)*MTBF 1,120 .0465 .95351,160 .0417 .95831,200 .0373 .96271,240 .0335 .96651,280 .0300 .9700
CONFIABILIDAD DESEADA 98%
TIEMPO PARA ENCONTRAR FALLA RONDA OPERATIVA 14.6
TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREDICTIVO R=80% 81
TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREVENTIVO R=50% 253
Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator
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Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920 960 1,0
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