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PWC 28. JANUAR 2020 Kim Bruun, Investeringschef, Danske Bank Private Banking, Hillerød
‘En verden i forandring’
Investeringstrends i 2020
2
DANSKE BANK HOUSE VIEW
Udvalgte markeders seneste udvikling
Kilde: MacrobondHistoriske afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidige afkast, der også kan blive negative.
Opdateret 28-01-2020
33
1942 19,2%
1944 19,0%
1972 18,8%
1979 18,5% 2019 28,9%
1993 10,0% 1986 18,5% 1938 29,3%
1992 7,5% 1949 18,3% 2003 28,4%
2018 - 7,0% 1956 7,4% 1952 18,2% 1998 28,3%
1939 -1,1% 1978 6,5% 1988 16,5% 1961 26,6% 1995 37,2%
1934 -1,2% 1984 6,1% 1964 16,4% 2009 25,9% 1975 37,0%
1953 -1,2% 1987 5,8% 2012 15,9% 1943 25,1% 1945 35,8%
1990 -3,1% 1948 5,7% 2006 15,6% 1976 23,8% 1997 33,1%
1981 -4,7% 2007 5,5% 2010 14,8% 1967 23,8% 1955 32,6%
1977 -7,0% 1947 5,2% 1971 14,2% 1951 23,7% 2013 32,1%
1966 -10,0% 1969 -8,2% 2005 4,8% 2014 13,5% 1996 22,7% 1936 31,9%
1957 -10,5% 1929 -8,3% 1970 3,6% 1965 12,4% 1963 22,6% 1980 31,7%
1940 -10,7% 1946 -8,4% 2011 2,1% 2016 12,3% 1983 22,3% 1989 31,5% 1933 50,0%
2002 -22,0% 2001 -11,8% 1932 -8,6% 2015 1,4% 1959 12,1% 2017 21,6% 1985 31,2% 1935 46,7%
1937 -35,3% 1930 -25,1% 1941 -12,8% 1962 -8,8% 1994 1,3% 1968 10,8% 1999 20,9% 1950 30,8% 1928 43,8%
1931 -43,8% 2008 -36,6% 1974 -25,9% 1973 -14,3% 2000 -9,0% 1960 0,3% 2004 10,7% 1982 20,4% 1991 30,2% 1958 43,7% 1954 52,6%
Historiske afkast
Kilde: New York University Stern School of Business, S&P 500 totalafkast– Historiske afkast er ingen garanti for fremtidige afkast – Afkast kan blive negative.
Over
50%10-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50%0-10%-10-0%-20-10%-30-20%-40-30%
Større end
-40%
2020forventet
4
DANSKE BANK HOUSE VIEW
Risici – the usual suspects
Markedseffekt
San
dsyn
lig
hed
Kinesisk
vækstskuffelse
BrEXIT
Mellemøsten-
konflikt
Centralbanker
Nordkorea-krig
Regulering af
IT-sektor
Italien
Tyrkiet
Gæld
!
55
Energy
Health Care
Industry
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Stables
Materials
Telecom
IT
Utilities
Financials/Real Estate
Verden
Danmark
10% 20% 30% 40%0%
Undervægt Danmark
Kilde: MSCI
Trends 2020
77Kilde: visualcapitalist.com
En verden i forandring
88
1.180 mia. $
1.140 mia. $
920 mia. $
862 mia. $
556 mia. $
484 mia. $ 1.900 mia. $
En verden i forandring
99
Landbrug Digital
Den digitale tidsalder
1010Foto: www.uber.com www.alibabagroup.com www.facebookbrand.com www.airbnb.com www.apple.com www.google.com
Verdens største taxaselskab ejer ingen køretøjer
Verdens mest omtalte valuta findes ikke fysisk
Verdens mest værdifulde retailer har intet lager
Verdens mest populære medie fremstiller intet indhold
Verdens største udlejer ejer ingen ejendomme
Verdens to største IT-selskaber producerer selv meget få apps
En verden i forandring
1111
Foto: Scanpix | Colourbox | Colourbox | Google
1212
18%4%
4%
7%
15%
4%
8%
18%
BUTIK ONLINE
Et par jeans koster 1.000 kroner
Kilde: WSJ
Materialer
Marketing
Lønninger
Fragt
Husleje
Driftsomkostninger
Overskud
10% 10%
30% 30%
15%27%
1313
(Black Friday + Cyber Monday) X 3 = Singles Day
11/11 fejres singlerne. Oprindeligt en ‘anti-valentinsdag’
Hvem opfandt i 2009 Singles Day?
2019 i Kina: 9 ud af 10 onlinekøb på Singles Day skete via en mobil enhed!!!
1414
Forbrugeren anno 2020
1515
Bliver E- sport større end konventionel sport ?
1616
Asien
1717
AI-Big Data-IoT
1818
Den digitale schweizerkniv
1919Kilde: China Channel
…er kinesisk
2020
Der er
400% flere under 25 år
end i USA
Ca.
18% af klodens
befolkning er
kinesere
800 mio. er på
internettet
95% via mobile
løsninger
Millennials
udgør
40% af den kinesiske
internet-
population
Kina står for
50% af alle IT patenter
i verden
I Østen stiger solen op
2121
Råvarer
Energi
Industri
Telekom
IT
Sundhed
Underholdning
Forbrug
Ny økonomi har overhalet
2222
Kina: 6,8% er bedre end 10%
10% BNP-vækst tilføjede
275 mia. USD til økonomien i 2007
6,8% BNP-vækst tilføjede
800 mia. USD til økonomien 2018
2007
2018
23
Digitalisering – vi er først lige startet. KIG MOD ØST!
Kilde: Macrobond, McKinsey
Landbrug Industri Service Digital
2020
E-commerce
Internet handel er
stadigvæk i sin tidlige
fase. Det giver gode
muligheder for firmaer
indenfor e-commerce,
betalinger og
transport.
Streaming
Digital underholding.
Bedre mobiler, højere
hastighed og nye
behov. Vi bruger mere
tid på music, tv og
spil.
Cybercrime
Øget digitalisering
betyder desværre
også, at vi er blevet
mere sårbare over for
datakriminalitet. Derfor
er data security en del
af dette tema.
Kommunikation
Vi skal kommunikere
på nye måder.
Mobiler vil i stigende
grad blive brugt på
beskeder og social
media.
Big data / AI
Øget digitalisering
giver mere digitale
“fodspor” der kan
analyseres. Big data,
AI bliver et afgørende
tema indenfor
digitalisering.
Timeline
24
Bæredygtighed – En voksende trend blandt investorer
2525
- Charles Darwin, 1809
”Det er ikke den
stærkeste art
der overlever, ej
heller den
mest intelligente,
men den
som er mest
forandringsvillig.”
2626
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