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AFACERI IN MEDIU INSTABIL
2014 2015
Prof. dr. Daniela Borisov
Daniela.orisov!"a#oo.$o%
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C&'rins(
Introducere concepte, relevanta subiectului
Simptome ale instabilitatii. Metode de analiza
pentru mediul intern/extern pentru o entitateeconomica
Evaluari ale competitivitatii macro.
Romania in strategia Europa 2020
Teme de discutie:Banca Mondiala 3I
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Instabilitate concepte asociate, simptome si
metode de analizaConcepte asociate (des)Crestere economica
Competitivitate Criza
(Dez)Echilibru Hazard Incertitudine Perturbatii
Predictabilitateimpredictabilitate
!isc "ariabilitate "olatilitate "ulnerabilitate
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Si%')o%e ale ins)aili)*+ii ,n %e-i&le$ono%i$oso$ial /1
viteze mai mari de desfurare a unor fenomene:!resterea emisiilor
de !"2#$%uizarea la nivel &lo'al a resursei de A(A )de o
anumita calitate*Intensificarea soma+ului , noi se&mente ale
%o%ulatiei afectate ma+or
educerea ciclurilor de viata ale %roduselor .te/nolo&iilor
.industriiloritmuri mai ra%ide de consum a unor resurse naturale
sau de inrautarire a unor conditii de mediu
sc/im'ri.ru%eri.inversri de ritm %entru indicatori
macroeconomici:indicatori ce e%rima cresterea economica , rata de
crestere anuala a (IB
sc/im'ri de tendin )de eem%lu# le&i de cretere e%onenial ,
rata de %enetrare atelefoniei mo'ile# su'tierea calsei de
mi+loc*
dificultatea de a ras%unde unor cerinte )de e# &enerate
ridicarea unorstandarde de calitate sau ale unei
su%rastructuri*
omania - rate mici de a'sor'tie a fondurilor euro%ene oi ti%uri
de riscuri economice# sociale# te/nolo&ice , riscuri
ci'ernetice
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Si%')o%e ale ins)aili)*+ii ,n%e-i&l e$ono%i$o so$ial /2
- insta'ilitate in dinamic %tr diversi indicatori# volatilitate#
oscilatii#am%litudini mai mari 6ntre limitele maime i minime ale
unui indicator$em%lu: oscilatiile cursului de schimb valutar ptr.
Romania 7ta'ilitatea cursului de sc/im' este unul dintre criteriile
de laMaastric/t# de a caror inde%linire de%inde ado%tarea monedei
euro%ene de catre oricare stat mem'ru al 8$ omania are cao'iectiv
intrarea in zona euro in 2014 (otrivit criteriilor de la
Maastric/t# moneda nationala %oate fluctua intr-o 'anda devariatie
de %lus.minus 159# variatie care re%rezinta a%recierea sau
de%recierea %rocentuala maima fata de media ultimilor
doi ani
Incertitudinea genereaz volatilitate , de e# evoluia indicelui
B$T-I ; (iaa de ca%ital are# %rin definiie# un caractermai volatil
dec
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Si%')o%e ale ins)aili)*+ii ,n%e-i&l e$ono%i$oso$ial /ieirea
din ti%are tradiionale$: le&ea (areto sau le&ea 20.@0 - @09
din efecte sunt &enerate de 209 din cauze e&ea a fost
enuntata de Cilfredo rederico Pareto )1@4@-1D23* inle&atura cu
%osesia unor terenuri in %ro%ortie de @09 de catre 209 din cei mai
'o&ati oameni ai tim%ului? este folosita ca %rinci%iu al
mana&ementului ,209 din %ersonal realizeaza @09 din rezultate#
209 din %rodusele vandute aduc @09 din cifra de afaceri# etcMai
ramane vala'ila e&ea (areto in economia di&italaE$: "rase
falimentate$: su%erdatele# 'raindrain$: noi forme de munca
6nde%rtarea fa de tendine )diver&ena fa de o
zon.re&iune*Ex: digital divide, convergenta in UE
a%aritia unor noi le&i legea Moore, legea randamentelor in
crestere pentru resursainormationala
!egea Moore " 1DF5# revista $lectronics Ma&azine a %u'licat
o lucrare a lui G Moore# in care acesta o'serva ca numarul de
circuite inte&rate seva du'la in fiecare an# %roces ce va fi
insotit de o reducere %e masura a %returilor !unoscuta su'
denumirea de e&ea lui Moore# aceastao'servatie a stat la 'aza
unei dezvoltari etraordinare a te/nolo&iei in intrea&a lume
Moore si-a revizuit o'servatia in 1DH5# %entru a adau&afa%tul
ca numarul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit inte&rat se
du'leaza la a%roimativ doi ani 7e %oate s%une ca e&ea lui Moore
aconstituit 'aza %e care au fost create micro%rocesoare de catre o
industrie a semiconductorilor in %lin avant Aceste creiere ale
com%uterelor#alaturi de alte ti%uri de circuite inte&rate# au
facut %osi'ila a%aritia si dezvoltarea (!-ului# a Internetului# a
telefoanelor mo'ile si a +ocurilorvideo Im%act economic In afara
acestei o'servatii cu %rivire la cresterea com%leitatii circuitelor
inte&rate# e&ea lui Moore su&ereaza si oscadere a
costurilor (e masura ce com%onentele %e 'aza de siliciu casti&a
in %erformanta# %retul lor de %roductie scade Micro%rocesoarele
dinziua de azi conduc totul# de la +ucarii la sc/im'area luminilor
semaforului " carte %ostala muzicala in valoare de doar cativa
dolari contine unmicro%rocesor mai %uternic decat cele mai ra%ide
calculatoare mainframe %roduse cu cateva zeci de ani in urma
a&ravarea unor decala+e in tim%.dis%ariti )re&ionale# de
e* , etremizarea saraciei severe#ecluziune sociala
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#imptome ale instabilit$%ii &n mediul
economico'social () transformarea unor %ro'leme economice 6n
fenomene sociale:
soma+ , saracie , crestere economica conditionarea unor surse de
insta'ilitate din anumite zone
culturale sau sociale 6n efecte economice ne&ative ,
conflictereli&ioase.etnice# stramutari masive ale unor
%o%ulatii# mi&ratiiale lucratorilor
ema de discutie!
!ercuri virtuoase in cresterea economica.dezvoltarea umana
!ercuri vicioase ;
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Me)o-e -e anali*
Analiza 7"T )7tren&/t# ea>ness# "%%ortunit=#
T/reat*Analiza 7(I )7ituation# (ro'lem# Im%lication# eed (a=
"ff*
Analiza 7T$$( )#ocial, echnolo*ical, Economical,Environmental
and Political*Analiza de im%act , !IA )Cross'impact anal+sis*#
TIA
)Trend im%act anal=sis*
Metode de ti% analiz a eficienei.eficacitii )analiza
cost-'eneficiu# analiza risc-'eneficiu# analiza cost-utilitate
etc*
AIMI 2014 - 2015 @
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Raportul de avertisment privind poten"ialul de
criz# $ earl% &arning
!once%tul a fost dezvoltat %entru situaiile de %revenire a
conflictelor i de violene %escar lar&
ecent# e%eriena din sud-estul $uro%ei# mai ales din %ers%ectiva
8J(# a im%uslr&irea acestui conce%t !rizele din aceast %arte a
lumii au fost %rovocate de%roasta conducere a unor economii
insta'ile# de inca%acitatea statului de a furniza'unuri %u'lice de
'az# cum ar fi meninerea ordinii i im%unerea le&ii#
deinca%acitatea actorilor %olitici de a 6m%ri ec/ita'il resursele
6ntre diversele &ru%urietnice Jin moment ce aceste state nu au
ca%acitatea de a analiza %oliticile# acestera%oarte ar tre'ui s
avertizeze asu%ra erorilor de %olitici %u'lice i s ofere soluiide
rezolvare a tensiunilor %rin monitorizarea evolu"iilor politice,
sociale 'ieconomice, (n special a celor care risc# s# degenereze (n
situa"ii de criz#.
$tinderea conce%tului este +ustificat i de o alt realitate
sud-est euro%ean: statele deaici sunt fie %rea noi# fie %rea sla'e#
astfel 6nc
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#trate*ia Europa --
(httpec.europa.eueurope--inde/0en.htm)
1biective, indicatori, tinte pentru #2 (statemembre)
#tarea curenta si pro*res Cazul !omania
(httpec.europa.eueurope--europe'--'in'+our'countr+romaniacountr+'speci3c'recommendationsinde/0en.htm
) AIMI 2014 - 2015 10
http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-your-country/romania/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-your-country/romania/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-your-country/romania/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-your-country/romania/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-your-country/romania/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-your-country/romania/country-specific-recommendations/index_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm
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S)ra)e3ia E&ro'a 2020 In %rezent# $uro%a se confrunt cu
%rovocri structurale ma+ore - &lo'alizarea# sc/im'rile
climatice i 6m'tr
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AIMI 2014 - 2015 12
(entru cele cinci o'iective %ro%use de !$ in noua strate&ie#
o%tiunile omaniei %ot fi sc/itate astfel:Rata de ocupare a
populatiei cu varsta intre #$ si %& de ani minimum '( ).In
sta'ilirea o'iectivelorcom%lementare# tinerii tre'uie vizati atat
din %ers%ectiva %artici%arii lor la educatie si formare# cat si din
%ers%ectivaevitarii riscului de ecluziune sociala*ivelul
investitiilor in cercetare si dezvoltare +) din I-"ul UE Mentinerea
%entru 2020 a o'iectivului de39 ar %utea fi realista %entru unele
7M# dar %entru omania va re%rezenta o serioasa %rovocare# c/iar
%resiune# cu
atat mai mult cu cat o'iectivele fiate in contetul
strate&iei $uro%a 2020 sunt interconectate In cazul omaniei#
laconstran&erile de natura 'u&etara si financiara se
adau&a dificultatile &enerate de o sla'a ca%acitate de
a'sor'tie afondurilor in domeniul cercetarii si dezvoltarii )atat
cele de la 'u&etul de stat# conform (lanului national de
cercetare
, dezvoltare si inovare# cat si din sursele comunitare*tingerea
obiectivului /#$0#$0#$1)sau 30.20.20# in cazul res%ectarii anumitor
conditii* referitor la sc/im'arileclimatice si ener&ie omania
nu intrevede dificultati in atin&erea o'iectivului de 209
aferent surselor re&enera'ilede ener&ie )$7* si considera
ca %otentialul national# sistemul de %romovare al $7 si a%licarea
%revederilor
Jirectivei 200D.2@.!$ vor avea contri'utii im%ortante in acest
sens In ceea ce %riveste eficienta ener&etica#o'iectivul de 209
este indicativ si este im%ortanta analizarea o%ortunitatii
sta'ilirii de o'iective o'li&atorii omaniaare in vedere
necesitatea mentinerii %ers%ective de crestere a consumului de
ener&ie %entru relansarea economicascontata eferitor la
emisiile de &aze cu efect de sera# omania considera
fundamentala res%ectarea deciziei!onsiliului $uro%ean din decem'rie
200D %rivind efectuarea de catre !"M a evaluarii com%ati'ilitatii
o'iectivelorasumate de tarile terte# %entru a asi&ura un level
pla2ing ield &lo'al %entru standardele de mediu umai in
'azaacestei evaluari %oate fi avuta in vedere %osi'ilitatea
modificarii an&a+amentului 8$ de reducere a emisiilor de
&azecu efect de sera cu 30 9 %ana in 2020Rata abandonului
scolar timpuriu, situatia nationala actual nu este de natura sa
sustina un o'iectiv national%rea am'itios dar# %rin intensificarea
eforturilor de coordonare a %oliticilor educationale cu cele
sociale# este %osi'ilascaderea semnificativa a acestui
indicatorReducerea cu #$ de milioane a cetatenilor europeni
amenintati de saracie.ealizarea acestui o'iectiv estedificila c/iar
la nivelul 8$# avand in vedere conditiile economice s%ecific
7MAsadar# omania im%artaseste a'ordarea !"M cu %rivire la modul in
care se %ot asi&ura %ers%ective mai 'une %entrueconomia 8$ si
sustine asi&urarea conver&entei eforturilor comunitare si
ale 7M in efortul comun de a-si de%asi
actual criza si de a define un cadru de consolidare a
com%etitivitatii euro%ene %entru urmatorul deceniu
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E&ro'a 2020 a$$en) 'e $&noas)ere3resterea economica
bazata pe cunoastere! noua strate&ie tre'uie sa ofere conditii
cadru
adecvate %entru inovare si cercetare# %rin oferirea de
stimulente si %unerea in comun a resurselor%u'lice si %rivate
"'iectivele %entru anul 2020 vor %utea fi atinse numai intr-un
7%atiu $uro%ean al !ercetarii eficient#eficace si cu finantare
adecvata (oliticile de educatie vor tre'ui reformate astfel incat
randamentullor sa creasca si sa conduca la com'aterea ecluziunii
sociale si a saraciei
Educatia si cercetarea, inovarea si creativitatea sunt
principalele prioritati
pentru realizarea societatii europene bazata pe cunoastere
Tre'uie intre%rinsemasuri %entru crearea unei verita'ile %iete
unice online %entru ca 'eneficiile economiei di&itale safie
folosite la %otentialul lor maim
3ezvoltarea competentelor cetatenilor in cadrul unor societati
care avorizeaza incluziunea:Beneficiile economiei 'azate %e
cunoastere de%ind de contri'utia directa a fortei de
munca#com%etentele acesteia constituind un element central %entru
cresterea economica euro%eana
leicuritatea va ocu%a un loc central in urmatorul deceniu# fiind
instrumentul care %oate ras%undeadecvat %rovocarilor im%use de noi
locuri de munca care necesita com%etente noi Mo'ilitatea forteide
munca tre'uie sa contri'uie la o mai 'una corelare a cererii si
ofertei %e %iata muncii# dar si laasi&urarea necesarului de noi
com%etente
Intarirea culturii antreprenoriale, cu accent pe o atitudine
pozitiva in
asumarea riscurilor si a capacitatii de inovare re%rezinta un
instrument care
contri'uie la asi&urarea com%etitivitatiiAIMI 2014 - 2015
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E4 5Europe 2020a strate&= for +o's and
smart# sustaina'le and inclusive&roKt/# is 'ased on five
$8/eadline tar&ets K/ic/ arecurrentl= measured '= ei&/t
/eadline indicators
7ursa:/tt%:..e%%eurostateceuro%aeu.%ortal.%a&e.%ortal.euro%eL2020Lindicators./eadlineLindicators
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!omania-6
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Exempli*icare!
4isparitati regionale baza in anul 2005 2
Indici de disparitate 6I7/locuitor- calcula%i conform
metodolo*iei Institutului7a%ional de #tatistic$, prin raportarea
nivelului re*ional la nivelul na%ional.Sursa! 6roiec"ia
principalilor indicatori economico sociali (n 6R89I ERI8RI- p+n# (n
20:, 3omisia ;ationala
de 6rognoza
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Exempli*icare! 4isparitati regionale 2
4ecala)e regionale -iecare re&iune fa de re&iunea Cest
)re&iunea Bucureti Ilfov nu a fostluat ca 'az - outlier*# aflat
%e locul doi din %unct de vedere al dezvoltrii economice
%e6ntrea&a %erioad
Sursa! 6roiec"ia principalilor indicatori economico sociali (n
6R89I ERI8RI- p+n# (n 20:, 3omisia ;ationala de 6rognoza
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/77S 'er in#ai)an)8 " NUTS 2 re3ions R6MANIA
,--- ,--6 ,--, ,--8 ,--( ,--9 ,--: ,--5 ,--; ,--< ,-6-
-
,-
(-
:-
;-
6--
6,-
1920 21 22
24 225 2:
2; 0 2;
5: 5< 5;
:
:9
o* t=e European ?nion@s structural polic% $ver=
re&ion in t/e $8 is covered '= co/esion %olic=: /oKever#
most structural funds are directed to 8T7 level 2 re&ions K/ose
GJ( %er in/a'itant is less t/an H5 9 oft/e $82H avera&e )on t/e
'asis of a t/ree-=ear avera&e* 7ource: $urostat
)t&s0000F*
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Proportion of resident population in economicall+ stron*er and
>ea?erre*ionsRe3ions =#ose >D7 'er in#ai)an)8 in 77S8 %ove-
&'=ar-s or -o=n=ar-s over )#e
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Eval&ari ale $o%'e)i)ivi)a)ii
Glo'al !om%etitiveness e%ort 2014-2015 Modele teoretice %reluate
inmetodolo&iile de evaluare , Jiamantul (orter# Glo'al
$ntre%reneurs/i%Monitor )G$M*
IMJ orld !om%etitiveness ear'oo> T/e 2013-2050 oadma%
Ra'oar)ele -e $o%'e)i)ivi)a)e$valuarea economiei 'azate %e
cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale -NnoKled&e Assessment
met/odolo&= - NAM:
&&&.&orldban>.org/&bi/>no&ledge*ordevelopment
&&&.&orldban>.org/>am
A=e Bno&ledge Econom%, t=e B-M Met=odolog% and Corld 7an>
8perationsD,Jere> O ! !/en# !arl P Ja/lman# T/e orld Ban>#
as/in&ton J! 20433# "cto'er1D# 2005
#ource Meas&rin3 no=le-3e in )#e =orl-s
e$ono%ies,@no>led*e Assessment 2ethodolo*+ and @no>led*e
Econom+ Inde/
AIMI 2014 - 2015 20
http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/kamhttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopmenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment
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!aportul asupra competitivitatii in lume inviziunea Borumului
Economic 2ondial (EB '
orld Economic Borum)EF >loal Co%'e)i)iveness Re'or)
e-i)ia 20142015
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Evaluari ale competitivitatii Borumul Economic 2ondial (EB)
Sursa! =e
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Deni)ie $on$e')e
Co%'e)i)ivi)a)ea se de3nete ca acel set de institu%ii, politici
i factori care determin$ nivelul prezent
de productivitate al unei t$ri. Este capacitatea unei 3rme,
companii re*iuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra
sau ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati
comparabile este cel maides vazuta din perspectiva unei natiuni si
este asociata concurentei internationaleFG capacitatea unei natiuni
de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testuluiconcurentei
pe pietele internationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil
nivelulde trai al populatiei
determin$ atJt nivelul de bun$stare al unei economii la un
moment dat, cJt ipoten%ialul de cretere a acesteia in viitor.
Kiteratura i practica economic$ au eviden%iat faptul c$
dezvoltarea unei economiibazate pe cunoatere reprezint$ unul dintre
factorii cheie ai creterii competitivit$%iiunei economii.
In timp, dezvoltarea conceptuluiL Economitii clasici au
identi3cat patru factori de produc%ie p$mJntul, capitalul,
resurselenaturale i for%a de munc$ (Adam #mith, 655: An Inquiry
into the Nature and Causes of Wealth ofNations) D. !icardo (6;65) '
cu formularea le*ii avantaMului comparativ Principles of Political
Economyand Taxation Economitii mar/iti au subliniat impactul
mediului sociopolitic asupra dezvolt$rii economice (@.2ar/ 6;:5
Capital: a Critique of Political Economy)
2.3.15 23
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In timp abordarea conceptului(cont.)
eber, 2., ' a subliniat rela%ia &ntre valori, credin%e
reli*ioase i performan%aeconomic$ a na%iunilor (Ethic of
Protestanism and the Spirit of Capitalism,6 studiind economia
american$pe deceniile urm$toare celui de al doilea r$zboi mondial
(#olo>, !., TechnicalChan%e and the A%%re%ate Production
&unction, 6
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Evaluari ale competitivitatii The microeconomic
business environment - the mechanisms of influence
(Porters Model)
2.3.15 25
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EB -68'-6
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Evaluari ale competitivitatii EB T#e %aor-e)er%inan)s @or
$o%'e)i)iveness /12 -i%ensions
AIMI 2014 - 2015 2H
Subindex &eig=ts and income t=res=olds *or stages o*
development
T/e conce%t of com%etitiveness
involves static and d%namiccomponentsAlt/ou&/ t/e
%roductivit= of a countr=determines its a'ilit= to sustain a
/i&/level o income# it is also one of t/ecentral determinants
of its returns on
investment# K/ic/ is one of t/e >e=factors e%lainin& an
econom=Qsgro5th potential.
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Evaluari ale competitivitatii EB T#e %aor-e)er%inan)s @or
$o%'e)i)iveness /12 -i%ensions
AIMI 2014 - 2015 2@
Subindex &eig=ts and income t=res=olds *or stages o*
development
T/e conce%t of com%etitiveness
involves static and d%namiccomponentsAlt/ou&/ t/e
%roductivit= of a countr=determines its a'ilit= to sustain a
/i&/level o income# it is also one of t/ecentral determinants
of its returns on
investment# K/ic/ is one of t/e >e=factors e%lainin& an
econom=Qsgro5th potential.
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Ro%ania
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Ro%ania T#e %os) 'role%a)i$@a$)ors @or -oin3 &siness
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Competitivitate ' productivitateCuanti3carea obiectivului P1# de
competitivitate se poate realiza &n termeni de
$re)ere a 'ro-&$)ivi)*)ii %&n$ii8 calculat$ ca evolu%ie
a PI= pe persoan$ocupat$.
Cres)erea 'ro-&$)ivi)a)ii %&n$ii 'e 'ersoana o$&'a)a
poate 3 apro/imata si
ca% productivitatea muncii= %GDP real - %populatie ocupata
unde Q reprezinta cresterea procentuala
Cre)erea 'ro-&$)ivi)*+ii %&n$ii 'e 'ersoan* o$&'a)*
poate 3 descompus$teoretic in contribu%ia a doi factori contri)u*ia
cre+terii capitalului pe persoan,
ocupat, i cea a modi-c,rii re.idualului Solo/ numit
iproducti(itatea total, afactorilor0 Producti(itatea total, a
factorilor suprinde contribu%ia altor factoridecJt capitalul i
for%a de munc$ la creterea PI='ului pe persoan$ ocupat$.
Cre+terea PI' pe persoan, ocupat, este un indicator lar* folosit
&n practicainterna%ional$.
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Studiu de caz $ Indicatorul 6roductivitatea muncii
!omania de abia depaseste pra*ulde 9- din media 4E la
productivitatea muncii m$surat$prin PI= pe persoan$ an*aMat$
(laparitatea puterilor de cump$rarestandard pentru a putea
facecomparaRia corect, eliminJnddiferenRele date de
nivelurilediferite ale preRurilor).
#ursa E4!1#A, code tec--66:A7 Sross domestic product (SDP) is
a
measure for the economic activit+. It isde3ned as the value of
all *oods andservices produced less the value of an+*oods or
services used in their creation. SDPper person emplo+ed is intended
to *ive anoverall impression of the productivit+ ofnational
economies e/pressed in relation to
the European 4nion (E45) avera*e. If theinde/ of a countr+ is
hi*her than 6--, thiscountr+Ts level of SDP per person emplo+edis
hi*her than the E4 avera*e and viceversa. =asic 3*ures are
e/pressed in PP#, i.e.a common currenc+ that eliminates
thediUerences in price levels bet>een countriesallo>in*
meanin*ful volume comparisons ofSDP bet>een countries.
AIMI 2014 - 2015 32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1801:.;
15.512
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Kabour productivit+ per hour >or?ed ' Euro per hour
>or?ed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
53.4
48.8
45.9 45.8 45.6 45.5
42.8
39.9 39.7 39.237.5 37.3
32.2 32.2 32.1 32.1
21.6 21.420.2
17.1
13.2 13.111.5 11.4 10.6 10.6
8.4
5.6 4.9
Lao&r 'ro-&$)ivi)" 'er #o&r =ore- E&ro 'er
#o&r =ore-
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Indicatorul ' cresterea productivitatii muncii ()
34
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
8 .< .< .< 8 8. 8.; . .: .< 9. 9.: 9. 9.8 9. 9.
9.:
9.8 9.5 :.8 :.5 5.; ;.9 here an activit+ represents auniYue
added value. he theor+ of comparative advanta*e (David !icardo,
6;6here the potential added value in internationalmar?ets is bi**er
than that of competitors.entails the mobilization of a variet+ of
resources to implement such choices. hese resources are
dra>nfrom *overnment, infrastructure, technolo*+,3nance,
education, etc. Countries compete internationall+ to have access to
and to mana*e theseresources.
he I2D orld Competitiveness Vearboo? can be described as a
mappin* process that helps countriesbenchmar? their competitiveness
b+ mobilizin* such resources.a) Companies focus on sustained
pro-ta)ility /hich is the abilit+ to *enerate an appropriate return
on
capital over a lon* period of time. his concept is
>ell'covered b+ economic anal+sis and is e/plainedb+ the 3eld of
competitive strate*+.
b) Nations thri(e on prosperity a concept that /e de-ne as
economic *ro>th plus somethin* else thatis less economic and
measurable. he latter *oal evolves >ith the economic and social
development ofa countr+ a poorer nation ma+ emphasize access to
food and shelter for its population, a more
advanced econom+ ma+ *ive priorit+ to environmental protection
or education. In both cases ho>ever,economic *ro>th remains a
prereYuisite, a condition that is necessar+ but not suXcient.
c) Indi(iduals are moti(ated )y increases in their standard of
li(in% and pro)a)ly )y somethin% moreideolo%ical such as 1the
pursuit of happiness as descri)ed in the 2S Declaration of
Independence(655:). #everal models attempt to include such concepts
in economic anal+sis (for e/ample, theCommission on the 2easurement
of Economic Performance and #ocial Pro*ress sponsored b+ theBrench
state and >hich includes 7obel laureates Noseph #ti*litz and
Amart+a #en.)
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3@
3ultural Impacts on 3ompetitiveness $ nations do notcom%ete Kit/
%roducts and services alone# 'ut also Kit/ education andvalue
s=stems
. Galue s%stems evolve $ four distinct %/ases: Hard
&or>!people are totall% dedicated to t=e countr%s
cor%orateo'+ectives and Kor> man= /ours )for eam%le# Norea*
Cealt=! alt=oug= people still &or> =ard, t=e% pa%
moreattention to increasin& t/eir oKn incomes )for eam%le#
7in&a%ore*Social participation! people are less interested in
=ard Kor>#and are more involved in s/a%in& t/eir societ=
)for eam%le# t/e 87and $uro%e in t/e late 1DF0s*
Sel*$ac=ievement! people are more interested in
develo%in&t/eir %rivate lives# rat/er t/an %ursuin&
societal c/an&e )foream%le# t/e 87 and $uro%e toda=*
2. Galue s%stems impl% di**erent be=avioral models $T/ree
different models of societ=: =e Sout= European Model is
c/aracterized '= littleinfrastructure# 'usiness re&ulations#
and social %rotection# a
%arallel econom=# and loK la'or costs It favors inventiveness2
=e ;ort= European Model - a stron& em%/asis on sta'ilit=#social
consensus and re&ulations It favors a lon&-term
%ers%ective =e -nglo$Saxon Model - dere&ulation#
%rivatization# la'orflei'ilit= and a /i&/er acce%tance of
ris> It fostersentre%reneurs/i%"ver t/e %ast ten =ears# a s/ift
/as occurred from t/e ort/ $uro%ean modelto t/e An&lo-7aon one
OoKever# stri>in& a 'alance 'etKeen a /=%er-com%etitive
&lo'al 'usiness environment# close to t/e An&lo-7aon
model#and a more sociall= res%onsi'le local environment# close to
t/e ort/$uro%ean model# is still a c/allen&e
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T#e I%'a$) o@
Te$#nolo3"Durin* the past t>o decades, the
technolo*icalrevolution ' computers, telecommunications andInternet
' have had a profound impact on thecompetitiveness of nations.
oda+,in@ras)r&$)&recannot onl+ be considered in the
traditional terms of roads, trains, harbor facilitiesand even
airports. echnolo*ical infrastructure isbecomin* a ?e+ asset for
the futurecompetitiveness of a nation.echnolo*+ also impacts
e-&$a)ion. he ne>technolo*ical reYuirements of enterprises
haveforced countries to *ive a priorit+ to technolo*+.Attractin*
research centers, and developin*
cooperation bet>een local universities andenterprises, is
becomin* Must as important for thecompetitiveness of a countr+ as
attractin* BDI.he Internet allo>s companies to develop
e'commerce, e'procurements, auctions, and e'mar?etplaces across
borders. his pushescountries to develop an advanced
technolo*ical
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orl- Co%'e)i)iveness Kearoo %e)#o-olo3"
he orld Competitiveness Vearboo? (CV) ran?s and anal+zes the
abilit+ of nations to create and maintainan environment in >hich
enterprises can compete. It means that >e assume that >ealth
creation ta?esplace primaril+ at enterprise level (>hether
private or state o>ned) ' this 3eld of research is called
Zcompetiti(eness of enterprises. Ho>ever, enterprises operate
in a national environment >hich enhancesor hinders their abilit+
to compete domesticall+ or internationall+ ' this 3eld of research
is calledZcompetitiveness of nationsZ and is covered b+ the CV.
=ased on anal+sis made b+ leadin* scholars and b+ our o>n
research and e/perience, the methodolo*+ ofthe CV thus divides the
national environment into four main factors Economic Performance,
SovernmentEXcienc+, =usiness EXcienc+ and Infrastructure. In turn,
each of these factors is divided into 9 sub'factors>hich
hi*hli*ht ever+ facet of the areas anal+zed.
Alto*ether, the CV features - such sub'factors. hese -
sub'factors comprise more than 8-- criteria,althou*h each
sub'factor does not necessaril+ have the same number of criteria
(for e/ample, it ta?es
more criteria to assess Education than to evaluate Prices). Each
sub'factor, independentl+ of the numberof criteria it contains, has
the same >ei*ht in the overall consolidation of results,
>hich is 9 (-/9 F6--).Criteria can be hard data, >hich
anal+zes competitiveness as it can be measured (e.*. SDP) or soft
data,
>hich anal+zes competitiveness as it can be perceived (e.*.
Availabilit+ of competent mana*ers). Hardcriteria represent a
>ei*ht of 8 in the overall ran?in*, >hereas the surve+ data
represent a >ei*ht of 68.In addition, some criteria are for
bac?*round information onl+, >hich means that the+ are not used
in
calculatin* the overall competitiveness ran?in* (e.*. Population
under 69).Binall+, a**re*atin* the results of the - sub'factors
ma?es the total consolidation, >hich leads to the overall
ran?in* of the CV.
40
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4F
Co%'e)i)i eness 7ers'e$)i e 1;;< 201
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Co%'e)i)iveness 7ers'e$)ive 1;;in& and its date
T/e length o the bar indicatesthe spread bet5een the t5o8 a
lon& 'ar can mean d2namism and0or volatilit2, a s/orter 'ar
meanin&sta'ilit=.and or inertia
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IMD T#e Co%'e)i)iveness Roa-%a'( 201 2050 E/emple ()loal -e)
eG'lo-es he avera*e S- *overnment debt increases from 5; of SDP to
6-- and
above. he 4# national debt no> surpasses \6 trillion.
#ub'soverei*n debt at re*ional and cit+ level becomes critical in
the 4# but also in #pain, and even Serman+.
9. E$ono%i$ na)ionalis% on )#e rise rade protectionism increases
as it is lin?ed to national stimulusplans (e.*. bu+ national
clauses). 7e> protectionist measures appear that are lin?ed to
3nancialre*ulations, environmental standards, corporate *overnance,
etc.
15. Cons&%ers rea$) -iOeren)l" Industrialized nations are
characterized b+ a replacement economy>here purchases replace
e/istin* products >hile emer*in* nations are in a 3rst'bu+
econom+ sta*e>here purchases introduce ne> products into
households. In other >ords, an industrialized econom+ isde3ned
b+ I /ant it versus one de3ned b+ I need it. #lo>er *ro>th
can be e/pected as saturationthreatens replacement economies.
1:. Foo- $o%%o-i)ies 'ri$es #i3#er Bood commodities have seen
their prices increase b+ over -
since the end of the recession. Despite a temporar+
slo>do>n due to a >ea?er than e/pected recover+,prices
>ill remain hi*h. An emer*in* middle class is chan*in* its
eatin* habits and *reater demand >illpush prices up a*ain. Bor
e/ample, China is movin* a>a+ from a rice'onl+ diet. In a decade
it hasincreased its mil? consumption seven'fold, poultr+ b+ :-,
beef b+ 8- and >heat b+ 9.
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IMD T#e Co%'e)i)iveness Roa-%a' 2012050 E/emple ()
. Urania)ion %eans $on3es)ion T#e &rania)ion o@ the >orld
econom+ increases pressure oneconomic and social infrastructure
(roads, >ater, hospitals, etc.), the environment and also
increases socialproblems (rural mi*ration to cities). In -8-, :- of
the >orld population lives in cities. - me*a re*ions accountfor
t>o third of the >orldWs SDP and ;9 of the technolo*+. As a
dra>bac?, con*estion becomes a maMor issueever+>here.
5. Fro% $olle$)ive )o in-ivi-&al val&e s"s)e%s T#e
val&e s+stem of societies in Asia *raduall+ evolvesfrom one
based on collective values (such as hard >or? and national
pride) to one based on individual values(such as >or?'life
balance), much closer to the 4# and European value s+stems.
:. A ne= &siness %o-el @or )#e 'oor A ne= &siness %o-el
emer*es for the >orldWs poorest (such as inAfrica or the Indian
subcontinent). Products are manufactured and sold at a fraction of
the price char*edelse>here, and >ith minimal functionalities.
E/amples the \6- phone, \6-- PC or \,9-- motor vehicle andservices
such as micro'3nance and mobile phone 3nancial transactions.
hich rede3nes therole of enterprises as actors to solve >ider
societal issues such as the environment, sustainable
development,povert+, etc.
42. Re%o)eness e$o%es irrelevan) T#e -isa''earan$e o@ most trade
and investment barriers, theeXcienc+ of the international lo*istics
s+stem (roads, shippin*, trains and air frei*ht) and the
pervasiveness ofcommunications technolo*+ *ive ever+ sin*le nation
and enterprise instant access to >orld mar?ets andunlimited
opportunities.
4. T#e )e$#nolo3i$al -ivi-e -isa''ears T#e )e$#nolo3i$al divide
disappears because of the developmentof a >orld>ide
communications infrastructure and the proliferation of cheap
technolo*ical products for the poor.
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AIMI 2014 - 2015 52
E4II- IM4 R8-4M-6
20$20F0
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E4II- IM4 R8-4M-6
20$20F0
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Economia cunoasterii si per*ormanta economica!orelatia dintre
acumularea de cunoastere )masurata de N$I* si nivelul de dezvoltare
economica)(IB.ca%ita* este estimat %rin coeficientul de determinare
de @H9
AIMI 2014 - 2015 55
R l i di BEI i di d
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Relatia dintre BEI si rata medie de crestere
viitoare a 6I7/lucrator
AIMI 2014 - 2015 5F
T/at /i&/er N$I values are associated Kit/ /i&/er rates
of future economic &roKt/ )Kit/ ot/er factors /eld constant*
su&&ests t/atlar&er stoc>s of >noKled&e
stoc> do indeed cause /i&/er levels of economic &roKt/
and develo%mentA one-unit im%rovement in t/e N$I - eRuivalent to an
increase in ran>in& of one decile or 13 %ositions- leads to
an increase of 04D
%ercenta&e %oints in economic &roKt/# after
accountin& for initial conditions
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Eval&area PAM ')r. Ro%ania /asi$ s$oreoar-
-6 6
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@EI in dinamica 6
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@EI in dinamica
AIMI 2014 - 2015 F0
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Cadrul economic -6 !omania
AIMI 2014 - 2015 F1
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ema de discutie=anca 2ondiala 8 I
AIMI 2014 - 2015 F2
-i l* l
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AIMI 2014 - 2015 F3
Ban$a Mon-ial* a '&s '&n$)&l 'e IQ(IN6ARE8 INCLUIUNE
I INTE>RARE A@a$erile -e )rani+ie -in Ro%nia8 $ara$)eria)e
'rin
Q,nv*+are i eG'eri%en)areQ
In %erioada de tranziie# mediul de afaceri din om
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Ban$a Mon-ial* a '&s '&n$)&l 'e I (IN6ARE8 INCLUIUNE
I INTE>RARE A@a$erile -e )rani+ie -in Ro%nia8 $ara$)eria)e
'rin
Q,nv*+are i eG'eri%en)are (cont.)evenind la situaia rom
