Bai Giang Qttc Tc Ltcd Nct

7/25/2019 Bai Giang Qttc Tc Ltcd Nct

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QUN TR TI CHNHThcs: NguynHuTh

Ging vin Khoa Qun tr Kinh doanhi hc Kinh t Tp.HCM

Email : [email protected]


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Thngtin lphc

Stithc: 45 tithoc02 tnch

itng: Sinh vin

Thigian hc: 10bui


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Mctiumnhc

Nmrcckhinimvtichnh;

PhntchvnhgitnhhnhhotngtichnhcaDoanh

nghip; Hiuccnguyntc, cngc,phngphpra quytnh

ut, huy ngvn;

Cung cpkinthccbncho ccmnhcQuntrdn,

Thtrngchngkhon, v.v


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Phngphpgingbi

Tholunvtrao ihcvin

Biging;

Tnhhung;

Bitp;

Trlithcmchcvin;


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nhgimnhc

imqutrnh30% trong :

Tham dlp: 15%

Bitpkimtra: 15%

imkimtra cuik: 70%


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Nidung:

Chng1: Tngquan vQuntrtichnh

Chng2: PhntchbocoTichnh

Chng3: Quntrvnlung

Chng4: Tintcgitrtheo thigian

Chng5: nhgichngkhon

Chng6: Riro vlinhun

Chng7: Chiphsdngvn

Chng8: nhgihiuquut

Chng9: Khochngnlu

Chng10: CcuvnDoanh nghip


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Tiliutham kho

Brealey, Myers and Marcus, Fundamentals of corporate finance.

International Edition, Mc.Graw Hill Inc. 1995.

Eugene F. Brigham, Fundamental of Financial management.

University of Florida, Sixth Edition.

NguynMinh Kiu, Tichnhdoanh nghip, NXB Thngk, nm

2013,

Nguyn Quang Thu, Qun tr ti chnh cnbn, NXB Kinh t

Tp.HCM, nm2013, in lnth6.

NguynVnThun, Quntrtichnh, NXB Thng K, nm2012


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CHNG 1:

TNG QUAN V TI CHNH


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Nidung

Cckhinim

Tmquan trngcaQuntrtichnh

CcloihnhDoanh nghip

MctiuDoanh nghip

Ccquytnhtichnhtrong doanh nghip


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Khinim

Tichnhlg?

Quntrtichnhlg?

Quntrtichnhtrong doanh nghiplg?


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Tmquan trngcaQuntrtichnh

Lnkhochtichnh

Dondoanh thuchiphnhhngnlinhun

Quytnhut

Huy ngvnvay ngnhn, dihn.


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CcloihnhDoanh nghip

Doanh nghiptnhn

Cngty hpdanh

Cngty Cphn

Cngty TNHH 1TV2 TV trln

Doanh nghipnhnc


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CcloihnhDoanh nghip

So snhcclaihnhdoanh nghip:

Thtcthnhlpdoanh nghip

Vnkinh doanh

QuntrCngty

Hnhthcthu

Phnphilinhun

Tngvn

Thihnkinh doanh

v.v..


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MctiuDoanh nghip

Tora gitr

Tiahalinhunsau thu

Tiahalinhuntrncphn

Tiahathgicphiu

Smuthungiachshuvngiiuhnh

Trchnhimxhi


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MctiucaccchthiviDoanh nghip

15

itng Mc tiu Ch s nh gi

Nhqunl Li nhun, phc li doanh nghip, pht

trinbnvng

ROA, ROE, ROI, linhunrng.

Chshu Tiaut, phttrinbnvng Li nhun, gi tr gia tng kinh t

(EVA), gi tr gia tng th trng

(MVA).

Cng C tc Tng linhuncphiu, Ctc, P/E,

gitrthtrngcphiu.

i tc thng mi Quan hthngminnh S n nh.

Thchtndng Hontrcckhonvay nghn Dng tin.

Ngilao ng Nilmvican ton,lng,chingh

nghip

S n nh.

Nhnc Thu -


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Ccquytnhtichnhchyucadoanh nghip

16

ut

PhnphiTN

Khc

Ti tr


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Quytnhut

17

Quytnhlinquan nphntisntrongbngcnitisnca

doanh nghip

Quytnhuttisnlung: tnqu, tnkho, chnhsch

bnchu.

Quytnhuttisncnh: mua sm, thay th, utd

n.

Quytnhccutisnlungtisncnh: sdngnbyhotng, imhavn

Lquytnhquan trngnhtvtora gitrcho doanh nghip


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Quytnhtitr

18

Quytnhlinquan nphnngunvntrongbngcnitisn

cadoanh nghip

Quytnhhuy ngvnngnhn: vay ngnhntndng

thngmi?; vay ngnhnngnhngphthnhtnphiu?

Quytnhhuy ngvndihn: ndihn vncphn?; vay

dihnngnhngtriphiucngty?; vncphnphthng

vncphnuindihn? Quytnhccun- vnchshu(nbytichnh)

Quytnhvay mua hay thutisn


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Quytnhphnphilinhun

19

Quytnhnylinquan nchnhschctccacngty

Lachngililinhuntiutchia ctc

Cngty nntheo uichnhschctcno?

Chnhschctctcngnhthnongicphiuca

cngty trnthtrngtichnh?


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Ccquytnhkhc

20

Spnhp, thutmcngty

Phngngariro tichnh

Chnhschtinlng


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Phnbitchcnngtichnhchcnngktontrongquntrtichnhktoncngty

21

Tichnh Kton

Hochnhutvn

Quntrtinmt

Quan hgiao dchviNHQuntrkhonphithu

Phnchia ctc

Phntchvhochnhtichnh

Quan hvinhut

Quntrquhubng

Quntrbohimvriro

Phntchvhochnhthu

Ktonchiph

Quntrchiph

XldliuSkton

Bococho cquan nhnc

Kimsotnib

Lpbocotichnh

Lpkhochvccdbotichnh


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Hivtrli


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CHNG 2:

PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNH


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Nmrccbocotichnhtrong Doanh nghip:

Bocoktqukinh doanh

Bngcnikton

Bocoluchuyntint

Thuytminhbocotichnh

Phntchbocotichnh

Phntchcctstichnh

PhntchtichnhDuPont

Lukhiphntchbocotichnh

Nidung:


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Bocotichnhphnnhtnhhnhtichnhcadoanh

nghipbngcchtnghpvthuytminh vtnhhnh

kinh t, tichnhcanvkton.

Bocotichnhgm4boco:

Khinim

bng

cn ik ton

Bo co

kt qukinh doanh

bng

lun chuyntin t

Thuyt minhBCTC


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Trung thc:

ngbiumu:

Chnhxcvthngnhtsliu:

nghnnh

Yucucabocotichnh


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Phn nh tng qut tnh hnh thu nhp, chi ph v li nhun

ca doanh nghip trong mt k k ton, chi tit theo hot

ngkinh doanh chnhvcchotngkhc;

Bocoktqukinh doanhcthnhgi:

Ktquhotngkinh doanh cadoanh nghipthngqua ch

tiuli(l)

Hot ng no gi vai tr quan trng trong vic to ra li

nhuncadoanh nghip.

Nnglctora nguntinvcckhontngngtinca

doanh nghiptrong tnglai.

Bocoktqukinh doanh


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Bocoktqukinh doanh

1. Doanh thu

2. Cckhongimtr

3. Doanh thu thun

4. Givnhngbn

5. Ligp

6. Doanh thu hotngtichnh

7. ChiphtichnhTrong : Chiphlivay

8. Chiphbnhng

9. Chiphqunl

10.Linhunthotngkinh

doanh

11. Thu nhpkhc

12. Chiphkhc

13. Linhunkhc

14. Linhunktontrcthu

15. Thuthu nhpdoanh nghip

16. Linhunsau thu

17. Ctcui

18. Linhundnhcho cng

thng

19. Ctcthng

20. Linhunli


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Bngcniktonlbngbocotnhhnhtisnvngun

vncaDoanh nghipmtthiim

Bngcniktonphnnh:

Gitrtisnhinctheo ccucatisn;

CcungunvnhnhthnhcctisncaDN timtthi

imnhtnh.Cthnhnxtnhgikhiqut:

Tnhhnhtichnh

Tnhhnhphnbtisn

Tnhhnhphnbngunvn

Tnh hnh qun l v s dng vn ca

doanh nghiptithiimthnhlp

Bngcniktan


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Bngcnikton

A. Tisnngnhn

Tin Cckhonphithu

Tnkho

utngnhn

TSNH khc

B. Tisndihn

TSC huhnh

TSC vhnh

Btngsnut

utdihn

TngTisn

A.Nphitr

+Nngnhn Cckhonphitr

Ntchly

Vay ngnhn

Nngnhnkhc

+Ndihn

B. Vnchshu

Vniul

Thngdvn

Linhunli

Tngngunvn


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Ngunvn:

Tngngunvn=Nphitr+ vnchshu

Nphitr=Nngnhn+Ndihn

Vnchshu= Vniu l+ Thngdvn+ Linhun

chaphnphisau khi chia ctc Tisn

Tngtisn= Tisnngnhn+ Tisndihn

Tisnngnhn= TSL+utngnhnTisndihn= TSC(thun) + utdihn

Mtsngthctrong bngcnikton


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Trnghp1: TngtisnnyGimtisnkhc

Nghipvktonphtsinh chnhhngnphntisnca

bngcnikton

Loi ti snny tng ln th loi ti snkhcgim i tng

ng

Tng cng ti sn khng thay inhng t trng cc khon

mctisnbnhhngbinghipvktonphtsinh th

thay i

Nguyntccbn

N b


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Trnghp2: TngngunvnnyGimngunvnkhc

Nghipvktonphtsinh chnhhngnphnngunvn

cabngcnikton

Loingunvnnytnglnthloingunvnkhcgimi

tngng

Tng cng ngun vn khng thay i nhng t trng cc

khon mc ngun vnb nh hngbi nghip v k ton

phtsinh ththay i

Nguyntccbn

N b


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Trnghp3: TngtisnnyTngngunvntngng

Nghip v k tonpht sinh nh hng c hai phn ti sn v

ngunvncabngcnikton

Nu lm ti sn tng ln th cng lm ngun vn tng ln

tngng

Tng cng ti sn v tng cng ngun vn u tng ln, t

trngcattccckhonmctisnvngunvnuthay

i

Nguyntccbn

N t b


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Trnghp4: GimtisnnyGimngunvntngng

Nghip v k tonpht sinh nh hng c hai phn ti sn v

ngunvncabngcnikton

Nu lm ti sn gim th cng lm ngun vn gim xung

tngng

Tngcngtisnvtngcngngunvnugimxung, t

trngcattccckhonmctisnvngunvnuthayi.

Nguyntccbn

B l h ti t


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Phnnhvichnhthnh( dngtin thu vo) vsdng(dng

tin chi ra) lng tinpht sinh trong kbo co ca doanh

nghip

Cthnhgic

Khnngtora tin

Sbinngtisnthuncadoanh nghip

Khnngthanh toncadoanh nghip

Donclungtintrong ktiptheo

Bocoluchuyntint

Ni d kt B l h ti t


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Gm3 phnnhsau:

Luchuyntinthotngkinh doanh

Luchuyntinthotngut

Luchuyntinthotngtichnh

Nidung vktcuBocoluchuyntint

L h ti t h t ki h d h


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Phnnhtonbdngtinthu vovchi ra linquan trc

tipnhotngkinh doanh cadoanh nghip.

Chai phngphpxcnh luchuyn tin thotng

kinh doanh:

Phngphpgintip

Phngphptrctip

Luchuyntinthotngkinh doanh

B l h ti t Ph h t ti


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Thu: Tin thu bn hng; tin thu t cc khonphi thu

thngmi

Chi: Tin trcho ngicung cp(trngay trong kvtin

trcho khonntktrc),tinthanh toncho cngnhnvin v tin lng v BHXH, v.v) v cc chi ph khc

bngtin(chiphvnphngphm,cngtcph,v.v)

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng kinh doanh = Thu - Chi

Bngluchuyntint- Phngphptrctip

B l h ti t Ph h i ti


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Cs: Phngtrnhkton

Tngtisn= Tngngunvn

Tngtisn=Nphitr+ Vnchshu

Tisnngnhn+ Tisndihn=Nphitr+ Vnchshu

Tinvcckhontngngtin=NPT + VCSHTS dihnKPTHTKTS ngnhnkhc

Mtthay itrongNphitrhay VnchshuslmTinvcckhontngngtinthay icngchiu

Mt thay i trong khon Ti sn s lm Tin v cc khontngngtinthay ingcchiu

BnglunchuyntintPhngphpgintip

L ch n tin t hot ng t


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tipnhotngutcadoanh nghip

Hotngutbao gm2phn:

utcsvtchtkthutchobnthndoanh nghip:

nhhotngxydngcbn, mua smtisncnh.

u tvoccnvkhcdihnhthcgpvn lindoanh, utchngkhon, cho vay, khngphnbitu

tngnhnhay dihn.

Luchuyntinthotngut

Lu chuyn tin t hot ng u t


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Thu: Cckhonthu dobn,thanh ltisncnh,thu hi

cckhonutvoccnvkhc,..

Chi: Cckhonchi mua sm,xydng tisncnh,chiutvoccnvkhc,

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng u t = Thu - Chi

Luchuyntinthotngut

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng ti chnh


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tipnhotngtichnhcadoanh nghip

Hotngtichnhbao gmccnghipvlmtng,gimvn kinh doanh ca doanh nghip nh: ch doanh nghip

gpvn,vay vn(khngphnbitvay dihnhay vay ngn

hn),nhnvnlindoanh,phthnhcphiu,triphiu,trnvay, v.v.

Luchuyntinthunthotngtichnh

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng ti chnh


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Thu: Tinvay nhnc,tinthu cdo nhnvngplin

doanhbngtin,dophthnhcphiu,triphiu,v.v..

Chi: Tinchi trlicho ccbngpvn,trlicphiu,tri

phiubngtin,thu litingi,v.v.

Lu chuyn thun t hot ng ti chnh = Thu Chi

Luchuyntinthunthotngtichnh

Bng lu chuyn tin


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Dng tin rng = Thu nhp rng + Chi ph khu hao

Bngluchuyntin

Thuyt minh Bo co ti chnh


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Mtvphntchchi tithnccsliucthhintrong

Bngcnikton,bocoKtqukinh doanh,bocoLuchuyntintvccthngtinbsung khc

Cung cpthngtin

CslpBocotichnhChnhschktoncthcchn

Ccthngtinbsung chactrnhby

trong ccbocotichnhkhc.Mikhonmctrong Bngcnikton, Bocoktqukinh

doanh, vBocoluchuyntintcncnhdudn

nccthngtin linquan trongbnthuytminh Bocoti

chnh.

Thuytminh Bocotichnh

Mi quan h gia 4 bng bo co


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Miquan hgia4 bngboco

Bng cn i k ton

01/01/200x

Tin v cc khon

tng ng tin

BCKQKD

Nm 200x

Bng cn i k ton

31/12/200x

Tin v cc khon

tng ng tin

Thuyt minhBo co ti

chnh

BCLCTT

Nm 200x

Chi tit

Chi tit

Chi tit

Phn Tch cc t s ti chnh


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PhnTchcctstichnh

Nhmchtiukhnngthanh ton;

Nhmchtiuqunltisn;

Nhmchtiuqunln;

Nhmchtiusinh li;

Nhmchtiugithtrng.

Phng php so snh


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Phngphpso snh

So snhtuyti

So snhtngiBntrong

Bnngoi

Nhm ch tiu kh nng thanh ton


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Nhmchtiukhnngthanh ton

Tsthanh tonhinhnh: TisnNgnhn

= --------------------------

Nngnhn

Tsthanh tonnhanh: TSNHTnkho

= ----------------------Nngnhn

Nhm ch tiu qun l ti sn


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Nhmchtiuqunltisn

Vngquay tnkho Doanh thu= -------------------------

Hngtnkho

Sngytnkho Sngytrong nm

= ---------------------------

Svngquay tnkho

Kthu tinbnhqun Cckhonphithu

= --------------------------- Doanh thu /360

Nhm ch tiu qun l ti sn


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Nhmchtiuqunltisn

Vngquay tisncnh Doanh thu= -------------------------

Tisncnh

Vngquay tngtisn Doanh thu

= --------------------------

Tngtisn

Nhm ch tiu qun l n


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Nhmchtiuqunln

Tsn/tngtisnNphitr

= --------------------

TngTisn

Tsthanh tonlivayLinhuntrcthulivay

= -------------------------------------

tinlivay

Tsn/vncphn Nphitr= ----------------------

Vnchshu

Nhm ch tiu kh nng sinh li


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Nhmchtiukhnngsinh li

Linhuntrndoanh thu Linhunrngsau thu= -------------------------------------

Doanh thu

Khnngsinh licnbn Linhuntrcthuvlivay= -------------------------------------

Tngtisn Tslinhuntrntngtisn

Linhunrngsau thu= -----------------------------------

Tngtisn

TslinhuntrnvnchshuLinhunrngsau thu= -----------------------------------

Vnchshu

Nhm ch tiu gi tr th trng


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Nhmchtiugitrthtrng

LN rngsau thu- LichCthius Linhunmicphiu= ----------------------------------------

Cphiuthngangluhnh

Tnggitrvnchshu Gitrssch = ----------------------------------------

Cphiuthngangluhnh

Nhm ch tiu gi tr th trng


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Nhmchtiugitrthtrng

TsP/E GithtrngP/E = ----------------------------------

Linhunmicphiu

TsP/BGithtrng

P/B = ----------------------

Gitrssch

Phn tch ti chnh DuPont


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PhntchtichnhDuPont

LNST LNST DTT TTS

------- = --------- x ---------- x ----------

VCSH DTT TTS VCSH

TTS

ROE = ROA x -------------------------

TTS x (1t s n)ROA

ROE = -------------------------

(1t s n)ROA = Li nhun trn Doanh thu x Vng quay ti sn

Li nhun trn Doanh thu (ROS) x Vng quay ti snROE = ---------------------------------------------------------------------

(1t s n)

Phn tch ti chnh DuPont


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PhntchtichnhDuPont

ROA nhhngbiLinhuntrnDoanh thu vVngquay tisn,

ikhi 2 tsnythay ingcchiunhngvntcngROA

tng.

Theo Anh, Ch, LinhuntrnDoanh thu vVngquay tisn,

tsnoquan trnghn?.


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Doanh nghipangnh

Tnhthivu

Phngphphchtonvkhuhao

Sliussch Tnhminhbchcabocotichnh

Mtsvncnlu khi phntchtichnh


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Hivtrli


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Chng: 3

QUN TR VN LU NG


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CHNG 4

GI TR CA TIN T THEO THI GIAN


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Mctiu

Hiurcchthctnhlin, likp

Xcnhchuitint- cchtnhthigicatint

Lachncchthchuy ngvntiu

63


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Lin, Likp

Khinim, ngha;

Cngthctnhlin, likp;

Lisutthc, lisutdanh ngha; Bitp.

64


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Khinim

Litc:

ivingicho vay hay nhutvn, litclstintng

thm trn s vn u t ban u trong mt giai an thi gian

nhtnh

ivingiivay hay ngisdngvn, litclstinm

ngiivayphitrcho ngicho vay (lngichshu)

csdngvntrong mtthigian nhtnh.

65


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Khinim

Lisutn:L tin li ch tnh trn s vn vay hoc vn gc ban u

trong sut thigian vay ( hocu t), hay tin lisau mi

k trong thi gian vay (hoc u t) khng c cng vovngcsinh licho ktiptheo.

Vd:

ut(vay) 1,000 $, trong 3 nm, lisut1 nm6%, thli

nchxtnvnut(vay) ban u1,000 $ khngquan

tmtinliphtsinh hngnmcct6%/nm.66


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Cngthctnhlin

V= V0+ V0* i + V0* i + + V0* i= V0+ n * V0* i

= V0* (1 + n * i)

67


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Cngthctnhlin

V0: Vn(cho) vay ban u;

i: lisut(cho) vay;

n: Thigian (cho) vay (sk);

I: Litctheo lin;

V: Vngc+ litctheo lin

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Bitp:

ut(vay) 1,000,000 ng, trong 4 nm, lisut1 nm10%, thli

nchxtnvnut(vay) ban u..

1. Xcnhtngstintchlyhngnm

2. Xcnhtinlihngnm

3. cc2,800,000 ng sau 4 nm, thhin ti, bnphigi

tinvongnhnglbao nhiu? Bitlisut10% vtinlikhngnhpvovngc

69


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Khinim

Likp:

Likplphngphptnhlimtinlisau mikut

cnhpvovngctnhtinlicho ksau

Likpphnnhgitrtinttheo thigian cavngcv

litcphtsinh

70


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Cngthctnhlikp

V0: Vn(cho) vay ban u;i: lisut(cho) vay;

n: Thigian (cho) vay (sk);

I: Litctheo likp;Vk: Vngc+ litctheo

Vk= V0*Lu: gilthascalisut

71


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Bitp:

ut(vay) 1,000,000 ng, trong 4 nm, lisut1 nm10%, tin

linhpvovngchngk.

1. Xcnhtngstintchlyhngnm

2. Xcnhtinlihngnm

3. cc2,800,000 ng sau 4 nm, thhin ti, bnphigi

tinvongnhnglbao nhiu? Bitlisut10% vtinli nhp

vovngchngk.

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So snhgialinvlikp

Theo linta c:

V= V0* (1 + n * i)Theo likpta c:

Vk= V0* (1+i)n

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So snhgialinvlikp

Nun = 1, ta c(1+n*i) = (1+i)n

V= VkI= Ik=> gitrtcclinvlikpsbngnhau nuthigian utl1 nm

Nun > 1, ta c(1+n*i) < (1+i)n

V< VkI< Ik=> gitrtccalinsthphncalikpnuthigian uttrn1 nm

Nun < 1, ta c(1+n*i) > (1+i)n

V> VkI> Ik=> gitrtccalinscao hncalikpnuthigian utdi1 nm

74


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Bitp

CA angcmtstinnhnri500,000 nhgititkimtingnhng. hnch ri ro, C chia s tin ra 2 phnkhcnhau. StinthnhtgivongnhngX, stinthhai givongnhngY. Chobittngtinlithu ctrongmtnmhai ngnhng l58,500. Tuy nhin, nu thay li

sutngnhngXbnglisutngnhngY vngclithtnglithu cl59,000.

Bit chnh lch li sut hai ngn hng l 0.5%, tin likhngnhpvn.

XcnhstinCA givomingnhngvlisuttingimingnhng?

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Khinim

Lisutthc:

Bn c ngn hng cngb li sut huy ng li hng

thng1%, vylisutcuinm,bnnhncl12% ng

hay sai?

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Khinim

Lisutthc:

Lisutthct(lisuthiuqu)llisutmbnthcsthu c tmtkhonu thocphi tr cho mtkhonvay sau khi tnhntcngcalisutghp

iellisutthc

inllisutdanh ngha

n lschu kgpli

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Khinim

Lisutthc:Lisutthcghplitheo qu(3 thng)

Lu:Nulisutcngbhngnmtrlicuinmthlisutthchngk(di1 nm) ctnhnhsau:

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Khinim

Lisutthc:

Bncngnhnghuy ng lisut12%/nm tr licuik,bnnhn1%/thngnghay sai?

79

Xydngkhinimthigitint


80/234

Bnbao ginghe ninthigitinthay cha?

Nucslachn,bnschnhnhthcno?

Nhnngay 100,000,000 ng

Nhnsau 02 nm100,000,000 ng

Nuccyutkhckhngi? Tisao?

80

Tisao phisdngthigitint


81/234

p g g

ngtin nhngthiimkhcnhau cgitrkhcnhaudo:

Chisdngtin

Lmpht

RiroDngthigitint:

Qui vgitrtngng

Cthso snhvinhau

81


82/234

Khinimthigitintcxydngnhthno?

Thigitintcxydngdatrncs: Lisut

Phngphptnhli

Thigitintccthhabihai khinimcbn

Gitrhinti

Gitrtnglai

82

ngdngmhnhchitkhudngtin


83/234

g g g

nhgitisn

Tisnhuhnh Tisntichnh

Triphiu

Cphiu

Phn tch v ra quyt nh u t

Dn

Thuti chnh

Lachnnguntitrngnhn Nnmua chuhay vay ngnhng

Nnvay ngnhnghayphthnhtnphiu

83

Gi tr tng lai v gi tr hin ti ca mt s tin


84/234

Nm 0 1 2 n-1 n

Lisut i i i i

Gitrhinti

PV

Gitrtnglai

FV1=

PV x (1+i)

FV2=

PV x (1+i)2 FVn-1=

PV x (1+i)n-1FVn=

PV x (1+i)n

i = Lisuthngnm(%/nm)

n = Snm

PV = Gitrhinti

FV = Gitrtnglai

84

Cngthctnhgitrtnglai vgitrhinti ca mt s tin


85/234

ticamtstin

Gitrtnglai lgitrmtthiimnotrong tnglai camt

stinhintidatheo mtmclisutbit. Cngthc:

FVn= PV * ( 1+i )n

Gitrhintilgitrquy vthiimhinticamtstintrong

tnglai datheo mtmclisutbit. Cngtc:

PV = FVn/(1+i)n= FVn* (1+i)

-n

85

BitpTmFV, PV


86/234

p ,

Bngi100,000,000 ngvotikhonnhktrlihng

nm5%. Bnsnhnvcbao nhiusau 5 nm?

Gis5 nm tibnmunc100,000,000 ng,ngay bygibnphigibao nhiuvotikhontinginhktr

li10%?

86

Bitp: Tmlisut


87/234

Gi sbn mua mt cphiu gi 100,000 ng s c tr150,000 ngsau 5 nm.

Bn kim c li tc bao nhiuphn trm cho khon u tny?

87

Bitp: Tmthigian


88/234

Gisbnbitmtchngkhonsmang lilinhun5%/nm

vbnphibra 100,000 ngmua chngkhonny.

Bnphi gi chng khon ny bao lu khi o hnbn c

c120,000 ng?

88

Ch i i


89/234

Chuitint

Khinim:Chui tin t lmt latcckhan tinpht sinh nhk theo

nhngkhangcchthigianbngnhau

Mtchuitinthnhthnhkhi xcnhc: Skphtsinh: n

Stinphtsinh mik(thu hocchi): C

Lisuttnhcho mik: i

dicaklkhangcchthigian cnhgiahai ktr

(nm, qu, thng)89

Ch i ti t


90/234

Chuitint

PhnlaiTheo stinphtsinh mik:

Chui tin t c nh: s tinpht sinh trong mi kbngnhau.

Chui tin tbini: s tinpht sinh trong mikkhngbngnhau.

90

Ch i ti t


91/234

Chuitint

Phnlai

Nm0 1 2 3 n-1 n

a1 a2 a3 an-1 an

Nm0 1 2 3 n-1 n

a2 an-1

a1 a3 an

91

Ch i ti t


92/234

Chuitint

Phnlai

Theo skkhanphtsinh mik:

Chuitintcthihn: skphtsinh lhuhn

Chuitintkhngkhn: stinphtsinh lvhn

Theophngthcphtsinh:

Chuiphtsinh uk: stinphtsinh umik

Chuiphtsinh cuik: stinphtsinh cuimik

92

Bi di l i d ti


93/234

Biudincclaidngtin

Lai dng tin Nm

0 1 2 3 4 n - 1 n

Dng tin u CK C C C C C C

Dng tin u VH C C C C C C

Dng tin u K C C C C C C

Dng tin khng u C0 C1 C2 C2 -C4 Cn Cn

Dng tin tng qut CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4 CFn-1 CFn

93

V d l i d ti


94/234

Vd: cclaidngtin

Lai dng tin Nm

0 1 2 3 4 n - 1 n

u CK 100 100 100 100 100 100

u VH 100 100 100 100 100 100

u u k 100 100 100 100 100 100

Khng u - 1000 100 120 50 - 80 500 900

94

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin c i k


95/234

Gitrtnglai cadngtinucuik

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u cui k (FVAn) chnhl tng gi tr tng lai ca tng khon tin C xy ra tng thi im khc nhau

S tin Ti thi imT Gi tr tng lai thi im n

C T = 1 FVn= C(1+i)n-1

C T = 2 FVn= C(1+i)n-2

C T = 3 FVn= C(1+i)n-3

.

C T = n1 FVn= C(1+i)n(n-1)= C(1+i)1

C T = n FVn= C(1+i)n-n= C((1+i)0

95

Gitrtnglai cadngtinucuik


96/234

n

t

tn

n iCFVA

1

)1(

i

1i)(1C1]/i-i)C[(1FVA

nn

n

t:

C: Gi tr ca tng khon tin ca dng tin u cui k n: s lng k hn

i: lisut

Cng thc tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u:

96

Bi tp Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u cui k


97/234

Mtnmsau khi sinh con gi,chA lnkhochhngnmvo

ngysinh nhtcon mnh,chA utrchra 10 triunggivo

tikhontchlytrlisut12%/nm.

Hin nm 18 tui, con gich A cc bao nhiu tin

trntikhon?

97

BitpGitrtnglai cadngtinucuik

Cch tnh Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u cui k


98/234

CchtnhGitrtnglai cadngtinucuik

SdngExcel

Chnfx, financial, FV, chn OK, nh vo rate, nper, pmt,

cui cng chn OK

98

Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u cui k


99/234

Gitrhinticadngtinucuik

Hin gi ca dng tin u cui k (PVA0) bng tng hingi ca tng khon tin tng thi im khc nhau.

S tin thi im T Gi tr hin tiC T = 1 PV0= C/(1+i)

1

C T = 2 PV0= C/(1+i)2

C T = 3 PV0= C/(1+i)

3

C T = n1 PV0= C/(1+i)n1

C T = n PV0= C/(1+i)n

99

Gitrhinticadngtinucuik


100/234

t:

C: Gi tr ca tng khon tin ca dng tin u cui k n: s lng k hn

i: lisut

Cng thc tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u:

n

nn

0i)(1*i

1i)1(C]/ii)1/(1-[1*CPVA

n

n

t

t

iii

CiCPVA

)1(

11)1/(1

10

100

Bi tp Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u cui k


101/234

BitpGitrhinticadngtinucuik

ChNmchunbnghhu. Cngty trtinhutrcho chtheo

mttrong hai lachn:

(1) Chsnhnhngthng2 triungtrong vng10 nm,k

nhntinutinvothngti.

(2) Chnhnngaybygimtstinl150 triung.

Nungnhngtrli1%/thngcho stinhumchNmgi

vo

Theo bnchNmnnnhntinhutheo phngnno?

101

Tmlisut


102/234

Nubnbit:

Gi tr tng lai hoc hin gi ca dng tin t Cckhonthu hocchi qua cckhn

S lng k hn

Bn c th gii phng trnh tm sut chit khu

Phng php tm sut chit khu bao gm:

Trabng

Dngmytnhtichnh DngExcel

102

BitpTmlisut


103/234

Gis5 nmtiMs. A cn100 triungvocuinmidulchncngoi. Hngnmcygi20 triungvotikhon

titkim.

Nungnhngtnhlikphngnm,lisutckvnglbaonhiucstinnhhochnh?

103

CchtnhTmlisut


104/234

Cchgii

Trabng

Sdngfinancial calculator

S dng Excel: Chnfx, financial, rate, chn OK, nh vonper, pmt, FV, cui cng chn OK,

104

Tmcckhanthu - chi qua ccthik


105/234

Nubnbit:

Gi tr tng lai hoc hin gi dng nin kim

Lisut, vSkhnli

Bn c th tm c khon thu hoc chi qua cc k hn

Cc phng php tm C bao gm:

Trabng

Sdngmytnhtichnh

SdngExcel

105

BitpTmkhanthuchi qua cckhn


106/234

Gis5 nmtiMs. A cnc100 triungvocuinmidu lchncngoi. Hicyphigivotikhontitkimvo

cui mi nm bao nhiu c c s tin hoch nh nu ngn

hngtrlikphngnml12% ?

106

CchtnhTmkhanthuchi qua cckhn


107/234

q

S dng Excel: Chnfx, financial, PMT, chn OK, nh vo

nper, rate, FV, cui cng chn OK

107

Dngtinuuk


108/234

Dng tin u u k dng tin m cc khon thu hoc chi xyra u mi k hn

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u u k (FVADn)

FVADn= FVAn(1+i)

Hin gi ca dng tin u u k (PVADn)

PVAD0= PVAn(1+i)

108

Bi tp Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u u k


109/234

Bitp Gitrtnglai cadngtinuuk

Gi s bn cho thu nh vi gi 20 triu ng mt nm v k gi

ton b tin nhn c u mi nm vo ti khon tin gi tit kim

tr li kp hng nm 10%.

Hi bn s c bao nhiu tin vo cui nm th ba?

109

CchtnhGitrtnglai cadngtinuuk


110/234

Cch tnh Gi tr tng a ca dng tin u u k

Phng php s hc

FVAD3 = FVA3(1+i) =

= [20[(1+0,1)3

1]/0,1](1+0,1)= 72,82 triu ng

SdngExcel

Chnfx, financial, FV, chn OK, nh vo rate = 0.1, nper = 3, pmt= - 20, type = 1 cui cng chn OK

110

BitpGitrhinticadngtinuuk


111/234

p g

Gi sbn hoch nh hng nm s rt 20 triu ng vo u

nmtrong vng3 nmtittikhontitkimtrlisuthng

nm10%.

Hintibygibnphikgibao nhiuvotikhon

cthrtstinnhhochnh?

111

CchtnhGitrhinticadngtinuuk


112/234

g

Phng php s hc

PVAD0 = PVA0(1+i)

= {20[(1+0,1)3-1]/0,1(1+0,1)3(1+0,1)

= 54,71 triu ng

SdngExcel

Chnfx, financial, PV, chn OK v nh vo rate = 0.1, nper = 3,

pmt = -20, type = 1 cui cng chn OK.

112

Dngtinuvhn


113/234

Dng tin v hn l dng tin u cui k c khon thu hoc

chi xy ra mi mi.Dng tin u thng c:

Vi dng tin u v hn:

Hin gi dng tin u v hn c ng dng nh gi cphiu u i

n

n

t

t

n

iii

CiCPVA

)1(

11)1/(1

1

i

C

iiiCPVA

)1(

11

113

Dngtinkhngu


114/234

Dng tin khng u Dng tin t c cc khon thu hoc chithay i t k hn ny sang k hn khc.

Hingi:

Gi tr tng lai:

n

t

tCFPVPV

1

)(

)(1

n

t

tn CFFVFV

114


115/234

Hivtrli

CHNG 5


116/234

C NG

NH GI CHNG KHON

nhgichngkhon


117/234

g g

Cckhinim

nhgitriphiu

nhgicphiu

Xcnhgicphiucho ngygiao dchkhnghngquyn

Trngthicnbngcagicphiutrnthtrng.

Riro vlinhun

Cckhinim


118/234

Triphiu lmtchngtcgi, mtcngccandihn,

nquy nhngiphthnhtriphiu(phthnhn)phithanh

toncho ngigitriphiu(trich) hngnmmtkhonli

xcnhcho nkhi triphiuhthn(ohn).

Triphiucthanh tontheo mnhgikhi nkohn.

Tri phiu


119/234

p

c trng catriphiu:

Ngiphthnh:Chnhph, Cngty (theolut doanhnghip).

C thihnxcnh;

Lic nh, khng ph thucvoktqukinh doanh;

tri ro (phiri rotriphiuchnhph).

c thuhivngcbngmnhgi;

Khigiith,trich c utinthanhtontrc.

Phnloitriphiu


120/234

p

Triphiuchnhph

TriphiuCngty

Triphiuchuyni

Triphiukhngchuyni.

Triphiuciukinmua li

v.v

nhgitriphiu


121/234

121

nhgitriphiuthngthng

- Xcnhmnhgi, lisutcungphiu, thigian ohn

- Hingiccdngtindkinthu cttriphiu

Cngthctngqut

C M

(1+i)t (1+i)nt = 1

+P = +

t=1

n

nhgitriphiu


122/234

122

Trong :

P: Gitriphiu

n: Sk

C: LicungphiuM: Mnhgitriphiu

i: Lisutchiukhu

t: Skcho tikhi ohn

nhgitriphiu


123/234

g p

Triphiucmnhgi1.000.000 ng, thigian ohn10nm, lisuttriphiul10%.

a. HyxcnhgiTriphiu,bitlisutthtrngvn(chit

khu) 12%.b. HyxcnhgiTriphiu,bitlisutthtrngvn(chit

khu) 10%.

c. HyxcnhgiTriphiu,bitlisutthtrngvn(chitkhu) 8%

Nhnxt.

nhgitriphiu


124/234

g p

Triphiutrnhknmnhiulnthpdngsau:Chia i cho sln

Nhnn cho sln

Chia C cho sln

Vd: triphiutrlinm2 ln

nhgitriphiu


125/234

125

nhgitriphiukhngkhn

- Xcnhmnhgi, lisutcungphiu, thigian ohn

- Hinccdngtindkinthu cttriphiu

Cngthctngqut

C

(1+i)tt = 1

+P =

t=1

n

Tnhlisuttriphiu


126/234

Sdngphngphpthvloi:

TnhlisuttriphiubitGitriphiutrnthtrngl

1,051,500 ng, lisuttriphiu10%, khn5 nm, mnhgi

1,000,000 ng.

Tnhlisuttriphiu


127/234

Sdngphngphpthvloi:

i1= 9% P0(9%) = 1,038,900

i2= 8% P0(8%) = 1,079,900 ng

P0= 1,051,500 ng

i2+ P0(8%)-P0(9%)/P0(8%)-P0

8% + (1,079,9001,038,900)/(1,079,9001.051,500) = 8,69%

Cphiu


128/234

Cphiu: chngchhocbttonghi sxcnhnccquynv

lichhpphpcangishucphiuivitisnhoc

vncatchcphthnh.

Cphiuthng

Cphiuui

Cphiuthng


129/234

Phnloicphiuthng:

Cphiu thng l loicphiuc thu nhpph thucvo

hotngkinh doanh cacngty.

Blue chip (thnghng):

Growth (tngtrng):

Income (thu nhp):

Cyclical (chu k):

Seasonal (theo ma):

Cphiuui


130/234

Phnloicphiuui:

Cphiuuilchngchxcnhnquynshutrong mt

cngty, ngthichophpnginmgiloicphiuny

chngmtsquynliutinhnso vicngph

thng.

Nginmgicphiuuicgilcnguica

cngty

Cphiuui


131/234

Phnloicphiui:

Cphiuuitchly

Cphiuuikhngtchly

Cphiuuitham d

Cphiuuikhngtham d

nhgicphiu


132/234

Phngphpchitkhudngtin

Phngphpchitkhuctc

Phngphpchitkhudngtinthun

Phngphpso snh: P/E ; P/B

Phngphpchitkhudngtin:


133/234

PhngphpchitkhuctcGitrthccacphiulhingicattcccdngtinnhnctcphiutrong tnglai

CF1 CF2 CFn

PV = --------- + ---------- + . + ----------(1+i)1 (1+i)2 (1+i)n



134/234

Lichthu vtcphiusau 01 nm:+ Ctccchia ltinmtsau 01 nm(D1)

+ Gicphiusau 1 nm(P1)

+ tlchitkhur

D1 P1

PV = --------- + ----------

(1+i)1 (1+i)1



135/234

BndoncphiuACB strctc1,500 ng/c

phiuvgicphiusau 1 nml18,000 ng/CP.Nubn

yuculisutchitkhul8%/nm,bnsmua cphiu

nygibao nhiu?



136/234

Tlctctngtrngun

Dt= D0x (1 + g)t

D1 D0x (1 + g)

PV = --------- = ---------- ----------(i-g) (i-g)

D1: ctcdonnmsaug: tltngtrngctci: tlchitkhu



137/234

Cngty PLC vatrctc1,500 ng/cphiu, dkintc

tng trngcaCng ty mcnnh10%. Xcnh

gicphiunutlchitkhuyucul18%.

Cng ty ABC c chnh sch chi tr c tc c nh 2,500

ng/cphiu. Xc nh gi cphiu nu t l chit khuyucul10%.



138/234

Tlctctngtrngnhiugiai on

CphiuA vatrctc3,000 ng/cphiu, dkinctc

caCngty stng10% trong 3 nmtiv mc6% nnhcho nhngnmsau. XcnhgihintimAnh/Chcthmua

nulisutchitkhul15%



139/234

GisCngty A cctc10%/nm, mctngtrngg =

8%/nm, sutsinh livnchshul14%, gicphiu

dkinbnra sau 3 nml35,000 ng/cphiu.

Xcnhgicphiu.



140/234

PhngphpchitkhudngtinthunDatrngitrhinticaccdngtintrong tnglai

CF1 CF2 CFn

PV = CF0 + --------- + ---------- + . + ----------

(1+i)1 (1+i)2 (1+i)n

PhngphpdatrnP/E ; P/B:


141/234

PhngphpP/E

DatrnhsP/E ngnhhay cngty cngcimtng

ng

PhngphpP/B

DatrnhsP/B ngnhhay cngty cngcimtng

ng(chyulcccngty thuclnhvctichnh), khngquan tmnthu nhpcamicphiu.

Tnhsutsinh litrnvnchshutheo mhnhnhgitisnvn


142/234

g

Ki= Krf+ (KmKrf) x i

Trong :

Kisutsinh likvng

Krfsutsinh liphi riro

Kmsutsinh likvngcathtrng

ihsbtariro cachngkhonI trnthtrngchngkhon

Tnhsutsinh litrnvnchshutheo mhnhnhgitisnvn


143/234

g

Ki= Krf+ (KmKrf) x i

Cphiuthngchsriro l1.2. Triphiukhobccli

sut8%, lisutbnhqunthtrngl11%. Tnhsutsinh li

cacphiuA.

Ki= Krf+ (KmKrf) x i = 8% + (11% - 8%) x 1.2 = 11.6%

Sutsinh licacphiuA l11.6%

Trngthicnbngcagicphiutrnthtrng


144/234

Trngthicnbngliukintrong sutsinh likvng

cacphiubngngsutsinh liyucucanhut, nh

vygicphiuskhngi.


145/234

Hivtrli

CHNG 6


146/234

RI RO V LI NHUN

Nidung


147/234

Khinim

Sutsinh likvng

Riro cadanh mcut

Khinim


148/234

Riro: lsbinngtimngiaccktquthu ctrong

tnglai.

Trong utccloiriro sau cnlu:

Riro thanh khon

Riro thtrng

Riro trongphmvi cadoanh nghip

Khinim


149/234

Li nhun: l thu nhp c c t mt khon u t, thng

cbiuthbngchnhlchgiathu nhpvgitrkhonu

tbra

Sutsinh likvng


150/234

150

Sutsinh likvng:ltnggitrcacckhnngsinh livi

xcsutxuthincckhnng

Cngthctnhsutsinh likvng:

K = p1k1+ p2k2+ p3k3+.+pnkn= pix ki

Trong :

K: Sutsinh likvng

Pi: xcsutphnphichobinci

ki: gitrkhnngkhibinci xyra

i=1

n

Phngsai vlchchun


151/234

151

Phngsai:lgitrtrungbnhcalchbnhphngcacc

gitrkhnngso vigitrtrungbnhcakhnng.

lch chun: o lng phn tn hay sai bit gia li

nhunthctso vilinhunkvng

Ccbctnhlchchun:

K = pix ki

2= (KiK)2Pi

= (KiK)2Pi

i=1

n

i=1

n

i=1

n

Hsbinthin


152/234

152

lchchunikhi cho chng ta nhngktlunkhngchnh

xckhi so snhriro cahai dnnunhchngrtkhcnhau

vquy m

CV =

K

Riro danh mcut


153/234

153

lchchun:

= Wi Wjrij i jviij= riji j

lchchundanh mc u t2 hngmci vj:

= Wi2i2 + 2 WiWjij + Wj2j2Trong :

: lchchundanh mc

ij: ngphngsai

WiWj: Ttrngcahngmci vj trong danh mc

i, j: lch chun hngmci vj

rijhstng quan kvng gia li nhun i vj

i = 1 j= 1

mn

Vd:


154/234

154

Ni dung C phiu A C phiu B

Li nhun k vng 16% 14%

lch chun 15% 12%

Hstngquan ca2 chngkhonl0.4

Nhutbtinvo2 loichngkhonlnhnhau

Xcnh linhunkvngvlchchuncadanh mc.


155/234

Hivtrli

CHNG 7


156/234

CHI PH S DNG VN

Nidung


157/234

Khinim

Chiphvnbphn

Chiphvntrungbnhtrngs

Chiphvnbintvquytnhut

Khinim


158/234

Chiphsdngvnlmtsutsinh limccnhuttrnth

trngihikhibvnvodoanh nghip

Chiphvntrungbnhcacngty ltrungbnhgia quyncatng

tsutlinhuntrong nhngnguntitr

Chiphvnbintcacngty lchiphvntrungbnhtrnnhng

ngvnhuy ngmi.

Chiphsdngvncaminguntitrlchiphsdngvn

sau thuctnhtrnnntngcaccchiphtitr hinti

Khinim


159/234

Ngunvntitrdihn:

Vay dihn

Vncphnui

Vnchshu

Chi phvncandihn

Chi h di h l t t i h li t h


160/234

160

Chiphvncandihnltsutsinh liyucutrnnhng

tisnctitrdihn

Huy ngvnhnhthcny, khngnhhngnEPS caCng

ty vlchiphphitrtrcthu

I M

(1+kd)t (1+kd)

n

Trong :

P ltnggibntriphiu

C ltngchiphphthnh

t = 1

+

P - C = +t=1

n

Chi phvncphnthng


161/234

Chiphsdngtlinhungili

Chiphsdngvncphnmi

Chi phvntlinhungili


162/234

Chiphvntlinhungililtsutsinh liyucutrn

nhngtisncuttlinhungili.

Cngtyphitrcho nhutchiphchinunhnhut

cnhnctcvutvohotngkhc(giskhngri

ro)

Kr = K

Chi phvntcphnmi


163/234

D0x (1 + g)

P0x (1 - F)

Trong : F lchiphphthnh

Chiphphthnhphthucvo:

Gicphiutrnthtrng

Tltngvn

Riro cadoanh nghip

v.v

Ke = + g

So snhchi phtvicsdngngunvngilivphthnhcphiumi


164/234

NhnthythngthngKr< Ke

Chiphphthnhlmgimstinrngmdoanh nghip

nhnc

Gimgicphiucho ngygiao dchkhnghngquyn

Tlthnhcngkhiphthnh

v.v

Tnhchi phsdngvnchshu


165/234

Mhnhchitkhuctc

MhnhCAPM

Chi phvntrung bnhcttrng


166/234

WACC = Wsx Ks+ Wex Ke+ Wdx Kdx (1 - T%)

Trong : Ws, We, Wdlttrngcavncphnui, vnt

cvvnvay dihn

Ks, Ke, Kdlchiphsdngvntngng

T % thuTNDN

Vd:


167/234

Ngunvn S tin T trng(W) Gasdng%(r)

- Vay ngnhng 1,000 10% 6,1

- Triphiu 1,500 15% 6,2

- Cphiuui 1,000 10% 10,0

- Cphiuthng 5,500 55% 12,0

- Lili 1,000 10% 12,0

Tng Cng 10,000 100%

Vd:


168/234

Tbngsliutrnta c

WACC = 10%*6,1%+15%*6,2%+10%*10%+55%*12%+10%*12% = 10,34 %

Nhnxt:

CcnhntnhhngnWACC


169/234

Chnhschthtrng

TlD/E

Mcriro huy ngvn

Chnhschctc

Chi phvnbint(MCC)


170/234

Quytnhutnndatheo tiuchun: sutsinh licadnphilnhnchiphvnbint

Timchuy ngvnmngay sau MCC stnggilimgy

Xcnhimgy:

BPj= AFj/Wj

AFjltngnguntitrj

Wj lttrngnguntitrtrong tngvn

Cng ty A c thu nhp gi li l 300.000$( vi chi ph s dng vn

tngngl13,0%) , cngtyphisdngthmnguntitrbng

Chi phvnbint(MCC)


171/234

vncphnthngphthnhmicthginguyncutrcti

ucamnh. Ngoi ra cng ty ckhnngvay n them tia l

400.000$ vi chiphsdngvnvay sau thutngngl5,6% ,

vttrnmcnythchiphsdngvnvay sau thutnglnl

8,4%.Nhvyta thychai imgy: imgythnhtxuthin

khi 300.000$ thu nhpgilivichiphsdngvnl13% c

sdnghtvimgythhai xuthinkhi 400.000$ nvay di

hnvichiphsdngvnlrd=5,6% csdnght. cngty

ccutrcvnmctiul50% vncphn, 10% cphnui

v40% nvay. Ccimgynycthcxcnhnhsau:

Khi dimgycxcnh, chiphsdngvnbnhqunwacc trntonb

Chi phvnbint(MCC)


172/234

g y p g q

phmvi nguntitrmigiaccimgyphictnh` ton. trcht, mc

chiphsdngvnbnhqun-wacc catngnguntitrmigiaimzero

vimgythnhtcncxcnh. Ktipchiphsdngvnbnhqunca

tanbnguntitrmigiaimgythnhtvimgythhai cncxc

nhvcnh th tip tcnu sau vncnxuthinnhngimgykhc.

Trong phm vi tngngun ti trmigiaccimgy , chcchn chi ph s

dngvnthnhphnsgia tngvdnnchiphsdngvnbnhqungia tng

timccao hnso viphmvi trc. Ttcnhngdliunyscngcs

dngchunbcho vicxcnhchiphsdngvnbintvnslthbiudinmilien quan giaWACC ccmccatngnguntitrmi

Chiphsdngvnbnhquntheo tngmcquy mnguntitrmica

cngty A

Quy mcatng nguntitr ttrng chiph chiphtheo ttrng0$ n600.000$

Chi phvnbint(MCC)


173/234

0$ 600.000$

Nvay 40% 5,6% 2,2%

Cphnui 10% 9,0% 0,9%Cphnthng 50% 13,0% 6,5%

WACC1 = MCC1 = 9,6%

T600.000$n1.000.000$

nvay 40% 5,6% 2,2%CP 10% 9,0% 0,9%CPthng 50% 14,0% 7,0%

WACC = 9.8% (600 x 9.6% + 400 x 10.1%) MCC2 = 10,1%

T1.000.000$ trln

nvay 40% 8,4% 3,4%CP 10% 9,0% 0,9%CPthng 50% 14,0% 7,0%

MCC3 = 11,3%

Chi phvnbint(MCC)


174/234

Bngtrntmttqutrnhtnhtonchiphsdngvnbnhquncacngty A .

Ba quy mcatngnguntitrmitocbihai imgy:600.000$ v

1.000.000$.

imgy1: 300,000/0.5 = 600,000 $

imgy2: 400,000/0.4 = 1,000,000 $

So snhchiphtrong ctthba ngviba quy mkhcnhau khi tngngunti

trtngln, chngta cththyrngchiphphtsinh trong giai onthnht

( t0$ n600.000$) khngcgthay inhtrong phnvd trn tnh

tan. trong giai onthhai (600.000$ n1.000.000$) ta thychiphsdng

vncphn thnggia tng thm ln14%. V trong giai oncuicng ta

thychiphsdngvnvay sau thutngln8,4%.

Chi phvnbint(MCC)


175/234

11,5 MCC =11,0

10,5

10,0

9,5

0

Tngnguntitrmi

11.3%

9.8%9.6%

10.1 %


176/234

Hivtrli

CHNG 8


177/234

NH GI HIU QU S DNG VN

U T

Nidung


178/234

Khinim

Tngquan vutdihn

Ccchtiusdngtrong nhgihiuquvlachndn

ut

Khinim


179/234

Dnlbtknlctmthivctchcnhmtora mt

snphm, dchv, quy trnhhay khochnnht

Hiuqudnut

+ Kinh t

+ Xhi

+ Chnhtr

Tngquan vdnut


180/234

Cutrcdnutgm:1. Scnthitcadn

2. Giithiuchut

3. Csphpl4. Giithiuslcdn

5. Nghincuvphntchthtrng

6. Khitonvutvtnmcut7. Bmytchcvnhns

Tngquan vdnut


181/234

8. Phntchtichnh9. Bngcnili/l(hiuqutichnh)

10. Riro dnut

11. nhgitcngmitrng12. v.v

Phnloidnut


182/234

Dnclpldnmchpnhnhay loibcngkhng

nhhngndngtincaccdnkhc

Dnloitrldnmchpnhnthccdnkhcbloi

b

Dnphthucldnmdngtinphthucvoccd

nkhc

Dng tin ca d n u t


183/234

Dng tin ra: k hiu du (-)

Bao gm: Chi ph u t rng hinh thnh ti sn c nh v ti

sn lu ng ban u

Dng tin vo: K hiu du (+)

Dngtinthunt

vnhnhdn

Dngtinthanh l

ti sn khi d nktthc+

Dng tin ca d n u t


184/234

Dngtinthunt

vnhnhdn

Khu hao ti sn c

nh

Thanh l ti sn cnh rng

Dngtinthanh l

tisnkhi dn

ktthc

Thanh l ti sn

(thu hi vn) lu

ng

Thu nhpsau thu

=

=

+

+

Ccchtiunhgihiuqudn


185/234

Thigian honvn- PP HingitrrngNPV

Sutsinh linitiIRR

Sut sinh li ni tic iu chnh - MIRR

Chssinh li- P/I

Chtiuthigian honvn- PP


186/234

Thi gian honvncadnlthigian cnthitcthhontrsvnuttlichrngthu ccadn

Thigian honvnkhngchitkhu

Thigian honvn=Nmtrckhi honvn+ scnntrong nmSthu trong nm

Thigian honvncchitkhulthigian honvncaccdnc

tnhngtrcatinttheo thigian

It1 +

=0+ 1 +

= = 0

CchtnhPP (#1)


187/234

(c)10 K 22 K 37 K 47 K 54 K

0 1 2 3 4 5

-40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7 K

(a)

(-b) (d)

iukinchpnhnPP


188/234

Gisnhqun la ra di thu hivnmong icadnl3.5 nm

Liu d n c c chp nhn khng?

nh gi phng php PP


189/234

u im: Dhiuvsdng

Thngcpdngcho ccdncnthu hivnnhanh

D xc nh c thi giancnthitthu hilivnut

Nhcim: B qua yu t ga tr theo thi

gian catin;

Khngxem xtnktcudng

tindn; Ch xem xt c li ch ngn

hn.

CchtnhPP chitkhu


190/234

Svncha thuhi

-40 K 10 K 12 K 15 K 10 K 7 K

0 1 2 3 4 5

-40 K -31.1K -21.5K -10.8K -4.4K -0.4K

-40 K 8.9K 9.6K 10.7K 6.4K 4.0K

Dng tin

chitkhu(i=12%)

Phng php gi tr hin ti thun


191/234

NPV lgitrhinticadngtinthuncadn(I)tridngtinutra ban ucadn(C).

I1 I2 In(1+i)1 (1+i)2 (1+i)n

+ . . . ++ - CNPV =

TnhNPV


192/234

C.Ty A xc nh c t l li sut chit khu (i)cho d n l 13%.

iukinchpnhnNPV


193/234

D n c c chp nhn khng?

NhnxtNPV


194/234

uim: Nhn nhnctrctiphiu

qukinh tcadn.

Ctnhtiyutgitrtheo

thigian catin. C xem xt n c cu ca

dngtin.

Nhcim:

Khng cho bit c khnngsinh licadn.

Kh xc nh c t lchitkhutnhNPV cadn.

Phng php t sut sinh li ni b


195/234

IRR ltlchitkhulcnbnggitrhinticaccdngtinthuntrong tnglai tdnmang li(I) vichiphutban u(dngtinra ban u)cadn(C).

I1 I2 In

(1+IRR)1 (1+IRR)2 (1+IRR)n+...+

+C =

Tm IRR theo phng php ni suy


196/234

NPV1 * (i2i1)

Cngthctngqut

Bc1: Chn i1sao cho NPV1 > 0

Bc2: Chn i2sao cho NPV2 < 0

NPV1 + NPV2IRR = i

1

+

Tm IRR theo phng php ni suy


197/234

NPV1 (i2i1)

NPV1 + NPV2

IRR = i1+

iukinchpnhnIRR


198/234

Gi thit, nh qun l xc nh t l sinh li cn thit ca dn l 13% .

D n ny c c chp nhn hay khng?

Nhn xt phng php IRR


199/234

u im:

Xem xtnyutgatrtheothigian catin

Chnktcudngtindn

Phnnhtngthmcsinh licadn

Nhc im:

Khng xem xt n quy m cad n

Khlachntlchitkhulmtiuchunso snh

IRR khng tnh n vic sdng dng tin c c qua ccnm t d n vo mc ch tiu t

Phng php chssinh liiuchnh- MIRR


200/234

Nhmkhcphcnhngnhcimca tsutsinh linib,

chngta dngchtiutsutsinh linibchiuchnh.

Tsutsinh linibchiuchnhlsut chit khu lmcho

hingicadn (dng ngnlura)bngvihin gica tng

giatnglai ca dng ngnluvo c tch ly theo mc chi

phvn ca Cngty.

Phng php chssinh liiuchnh- MIRR


201/234

COFt CIFt* (1+k)n-t

(1+k)t (1 + MIRR)n

TV

(1 + MIRR)n

Trong :

COFt= ngnlura (sm), CIFt= ngnluvo (tt calsdng)

k = chiphvn ca dn

Xc nh MIRR theo sliu trnvi chiphti u t l15%.

PV cost =

t=0

t=0

n

n

=

Phng php ch s sinh li


202/234

Chssinh liltlgiagitrhinticacckhonthu (I) dodnmang livigitrhinticacckhonvnutban u(C),i lchiphsdng vn.

I1 I2 In

(1+i)1 (1+i)2 (1+i)n+ . . . ++ CPI =

PI = 1 + [ NPV/ C]

>

iukinchpnhnPI


203/234

Khi PI > 1: D n c chp nhn

Khi PI = 1: Tuthucvotnhchtcadn


204/234

Hivtrli

CHNG 9


205/234

K HOCH NGN LU

Nidung:


206/234

Cutrcbngbocongnlutichnh

Thm nh dncvng i hot ng khngbng nhau

Cutrcbngbocongnlu(TIPV)


207/234

Bocongn lu lmtbngm tcckhon thc thuvthcchibng tin mt thot ng sn xut kinh doanh, ut va huy ng vn ca dn trong tng thi im cpht

sinh.

Bocongnluthngcutrcthnhhaiphnchnh:

Ngnluvo

Ngnlura

Nguyntcvquy cxydngbocongnlu


208/234

Ginh:

Nmbtudn:

Nmktthcdn: Nmthanh l: (tyvodnvtisnut)

Thiimphtsinh lichvchiph:

nvtint:

Khuhao:

Thanh toncckhonmuabnchu:

Phngphp xc nh ngnluca dn


209/234

Theophngphp trc tip:

(Ngnlurng)i= (Dng thu nhp)i(Dng chiph)i

Theophngphp gin tip:Ngnlurng =Ngnluthot ng kinh doanh +Ngnlutu t

Nguyntcvquy cxydngbocongnlu


210/234

Nguyntccbn

Thcthu, thcchi

Ngoil

Chi phchicacctisnhinhuChi phchmcacckhonchi trong qukh

Lu

TrnhtnhtrngPhnbchiphcnh

Tltrtgicakhonthu, chi canhngnm1, 2 .n

Cutrcbngbocongnlu


211/234

Nm 0 1 n

1.Ngnluvo

Tngngnluvo2. Ngn lu ra

Tng ngn lu ra

3. Ngn lu rng trc thu

4. Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

5. Ngn lu rng sau thu

Khuhao


212/234

Mcch:

Tnhchi phkhuhao hngnmavobngBo

cothu nhp,tcnhhngnngnlurngca

dnthngqua lchnthucakhuhao

Tnhgitrthanh llmthngmccangnluvo

Khuhao


213/234

Lu:

Khu hao khngphi l mt hng mc cabo co ngnlu, nhng c nh hng n ngn lu rng ca d n

thngqua lchnthu Nuchiphvnutccnmkhcnhau thnnlpcc

lchkhuhao ring

Btutnhkhuhao khi no?

Khuhao

Lu:


214/234

Nuclmphtthgitrthanh lsctnhbnggi

trcnlitheo ssch(*) ciuchnhchslmpht

trong nc(nmthanh lso vinmut)

Nu d n c u t cc ti sn v hnh th khu hao

c tnhbnggi tru t/vngidn (khngc

gitrthanh l)

Snmkhuhao thngphituntheo quy nhcanh

nc (thng t 45/2013/TT-BTC ngy 25/04/2013 ca

Btichnh

Bocongnlu

Nm 0 1 n


215/234

1. Ngn lu vo

Doanh thu thun

Gitrthanh l

2. Ngn lu ra

u t vn c nh

Chi ph hot ng

3. Ngnlurngtrcthu

4. Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

5. Ngnlurngsau thu

Sdngbocongnlu


216/234

Tnhtoncctiuchnhgidndtrnngnlucha

chitkhu

Vi sut chit khuph hp, ta s tnh c cc tiu chnhgidndavongnluchitkhu.

Phntchriro

Thm nh dnc vng i hot ng khngbngnhau


217/234

i vi cc d n c vng i hot ng khngbng nhau

vic sdngchtiuhin giarngcphnbhn ch. Trong

trng hp ny, chng ta sdng haiphngphp nh giaPhngphp thay th

Phngphp dng thu nhpbng nhau

Phngphp thay th


218/234

Khi so snh cc dncvng i khngbng nhau, chng ta

phi iu chnh thi gian hot ng cc dn cho bng nhau,

bng cch tnh bi s chung nhonht gia cc thi gian hot

ng ca cc dn angthm nh.

Phngphp thay th

Ccbcthchin:


219/234

Bc1: TnhNPV caccdn

Bc2: Tnhbishcung nhnhtcho tnggian hotng

caccdn

Bc 3: Tnh NPV ca cc d n theo vng ibi s

chung nhnht

Bc4: Chndntheo ktqutnhNPV. Chndnno

cNPV max >0.

Phngphp dng thu nhp bng nhau


220/234

Trong trng hp vng i chung ca thi gian hot ng cacc dn angso snhl quln lm cho cc dnphi lp i

lp li nhiu ln, iu nyskhngthc t, khi ngi tas

sdngphngphp dng thu nhpbng nhau

Nguyntc: hiu chnh giatrca cc dn angso snh da

vo dng ngnlubng nhau vavhn ca mi dn

Phngphp dng thu nhp bng nhau

Ccbcthchin


221/234

Bc1: TnhNPV caccdntheo vngicaccdn

Bc2: Chuynidngngnlugc thnhdngngn lubngnhau theo NPV catngdn.

Bc3: Tnhgi trhiuchnhcaccdn theo dng thunhpvhn.

Bc4: Chndn tiukhi cgitrhiuchnhlnnht

cchn


222/234

Hivtrli

CHNG 10


223/234

C CU VN DOANH NGHIP

Nidung


224/234

Khinim Xcnhccuvntiu

Cpncnnhphvncntichnh

Lthuytvccuvn

Khinim


225/234

Ccuvnmctiulsphihpgiaccngunvnvay,vncphnuivvncphnthngtrong khochhuy

ngvncamtdoanh nghip

CcnhntnhhngnquytnhccuvncaDoanh nghip


226/234

Riro kinh doanh Thuthu nhpdoanh nghip

Huy ngvnngnhnvdihn

Cpncninhphvncntichnh


227/234

ncnnhph(DOL) ltl(%) thay ilirnghayEBIT khi doanh thu thay i(theo tlcho trc).

ncntichnh(DFL) ltl(%) thay icaEPS so vi

EBIT

ncnnhphvimhavn

XcnhChiphcnhvChiphbini:


228/234

imhavnxcnh:

Qhv= F/(p-v)

Trong :

Qhv lsnlnghavn

F Chiphcnh

P lgibnsnphm

V lchiphbinicho msnphm

Lu: khinimchiphcnhvchiphbiniltngi, Bicth

doanh nghipnynlchiphbini, nhng doanh nghipkhcnlchi

phcnh

ncnnhphvimhavn

Gisrngmtdoanh nghipchai khochsnxutA vB


229/234

A: chiphcnh20,000 $, v = 1.5$/vsp, p = 2.0$/vsp

B: chiphcnh60,000 $, v = 1.0$/vsp, p = 2.0$/vsp

Dtnhsnlngkhochl80,000 snphmcho 2 dnXcnhimhavncho 2 dn?Nhnxt

CngthctnhDOL


230/234

DOLEBIT/EBIT

Q/Q

CngthctnhDOL theo Q

Q * (pv)

Q * (p-v)F

CngthctnhDOL theo S

SV

SV - F

DOL =

DOL =

DOL =

Trong :


231/234

p: githnhmtnvsnphm

v:binphmtnvsnphm

F: Tngnhph

S: doanh thu

Q: snlngsnxut

Nhnxt: DOL lchtiudngolngnhhngcas

thay idoanh thu nlirnghay EBIT

CngthctnhDFL


232/234

DFLEBIT

EBIT - I

EPS (%)

EBIT

Trong : I llivay vnphitr

DFL =

DFL =

CptnghpDOL vDFL

Cptnghp(DTL) omctnghpcancnnh


233/234

phvncntichnhnsthay icaS vEPS

Cngthc: DTL = DOL * DFL

Tnhtheo snlng:

Q * (p - v)

Q * (pv)FI

Tnhtheo doanh thu:

S - V

SVF - I

DTL = DOL * DFL =

DTL = DOL * DFL =


234/234

Hivtrli

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