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Thursday, 24 October 20

www.e-samuel.

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to

considered as an offer to se ll or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although

information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reservePT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) BUY (MaintaPrice : Rp8,400 Target Price: Rp11,0

Strong FY13 resultsHighlights:

BRI mencatat laba bersih di FY13 sebesar Rp21.4 triliun, naik 14.3% YoY, 6% di atas estimasi

pasar, namun masih relatif in linedengan estimasi kami. Pada 4Q13, laba bersih mencapai Rp5.9

triliun, naik cukup signifikan sebesar 8.4% QoQ.

Comments:

NIM naik 12bps YoY dan 30bps QoQ disaat terjadi kenaikan BI rate dan NPL turun 78bps YoY dan

22bps QoQ di saat terjadi perlambatan ekonomi. Kenaikan NIM akibat kenaikan kontribusi kredit

mikro untuk plafon 0-50 juta Rupiah dimana kredit pada tier ini merupakan kredit denganyield

tertinggi. Hal ini juga mengkompensasi kenaikan cost of fundsebesar 3bps YoY dan 13bps QoQ

akibat dari kenaikan bunga deposito. Sementara itu, penurunan NPL menunjukkan portofolio

kredit BRI tidak terlalu terpengaruh oleh perlambatan ekonomi.

Meski NPL berada dalam trendpenurunan, beban provisi di 4Q13 naik cukup signifikan sebesar

96% QoQ. Namun demikian, hal ini lebih diakibatkan kebijakan manajemen yang konservatif

yaitu: 1) untuk mengantisipasi pemburukan kredit yang disalurkan di daerah bencana, 2) untuk

mengantisipasi pemburukan kredit special mention, dan 3) mengikuti pesaing yang telah

menerapkan beban provisi yang konservatif.

Bisnis mikro semakin membaik di 4Q13 dimana jumlah debitur bertambah sekitar 300 ribu debitur

yang menjadikan jumlah debitur mikro pada FY13 mencapai 6.5 juta atau naik 18% YoY. Funding

di mikro juga membaik dimana simpanan pada 4Q13 naik 9.2% QoQ dengan kontribusi terbesar

berasal pertumbuhan CASA. Kredit ditargetkan naik 20%-22% pada FY14E, relatif sama dibandingkan dengan FY13, namun

melebihi target pertumbuhan sektor sebesar 15%-17%. Kualitas kredit kami perkirakan akan

terjaga baik seiring profil kredit yang tidak terlalu terpengaruh perlambatan ekonomi.

Action and recommendation:

Kinerja FY13 yang sangat baik serta dikombinasikan dengan outlookyang bagus dan valuasi yang

murah menjadikan kami tetap melanjutkan rekomendasi BUY untuk BRI. Saat ini BRI

diperdagangkan pada PBV14 2.1x, sangat menarik karena diskon 19% dari rata-rata PBV historis

dalam 10 tahun terakhir. Target harga kami Rp11,000 mencerminkan kepada PBV14 2.8x.

Maintain BUY

JCI Index :

4,

Share issued (bn

2

Market Cap. (bn)

207,

12 Mth High/Low

Rp9,950/6,

Avg Daily Vol

35,272,

Free Float (%)

4

Nominal Value

Rp

Book value/share

Rp3,

Analyst:

Joseph Pangaribua(021) 2854-8144

joseph.pangaribuan@samuel.

Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp8,400)

Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 12A 13A 14F 15F

Net Interest Income 36,484 44,153 48,216 58,922

Pre-Provisions Operating Profit 25,382 30,069 34,232 40,817

Net Profit 18,687 21,354 24,889 28,402

EPS (Rp) 758 865 1,009 1,151

P/E (x) 11.1 9.7 8.1 7.6

BVPS (Rp) 2,630 3,215 3,973 4,731

P/BV (x) 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.8

NIM (%) 8.4 8.6 8.1 8.10

ROE (%) 28.8 26.9 25.4 24.3

CAR (%) 17.0 17.0 15.1 14.3
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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Thursday, 24 October 2Joseph Pangari

(021) 2854-joseph.pangaribuan@samuel.

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it tobe considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover,although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. A

rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Figure 1. BBRI - Balance sheet

Rpbn Dec-12 Sep-13 Dec-13 YoY QoQ

Placements BI and Other Bank 113,432 80,785 86,333 -23.9% 6.9%

Goverment bonds 4,316 4,316 4,511 4.5% 4.5%Loan Gross 361,774 429,951 448,102 23.9% 4.2%

Provisions (14,677) (14,798) (15,172) 3.4% 2.5%

Assets 551,337 587,706 626,183 13.6% 6.5%

Deposits 439,154 458,178 490,487 11.7% 7.1%

Demand deposits 79,051 76,150 78,666 -0.5% 3.3%

Savings deposits 182,836 186,778 210,235 15.0% 12.6%

Time deposits 177,267 195,250 201,586 13.7% 3.2%

Depos it from other bank 3,232 4,826 4,206 30.1% -12.8%

Liabilities 486,455 513,963 546,856 12.4% 6.4%

Equity 64,882 73,743 79,327 22.3% 7.6% Source: Company

Figure 2. BBRI -Income Statement

Rpbn 4Q12 3Q13 4Q13 YoY QoQ FY12 FY13 YoY FY13/

FY13F

Net interest income 9,751 11,169 12,956 32.9% 16.0% 36,475 44,153 21.0% 105.3%

Fee based income 2,995 1,802 3,001 0.2% 66.5% 8,425 8,509 1.0%

Operating Income 12,746 12,972 15,956 25.2% 23.0% 44,901 52,661 17.3% 103.7%

Pre Provis ions Op. Profit 7,414 6,895 10,139 36.8% 47.0% 25,356 30,069 18.6% 98.7%

Provision (505) (841) (1,650) 226.9% 96.2% (2,669) (3,948) 47.9%

Profit before tax 7,394 6,816 8,942 20.9% 31.2% 23,860 27,910 17.0% 100.5%

Net income 5,512 5,442 5,900 7.0% 8.4% 18,681 21,354 14.3% 96.1%

Source: SSI & Company

Figure 3. BBRI - Ratio

Ratio (%) Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Des-13

NIM 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.55

CAR 17.0 17.9 17.4 17.1 17.0

Cost to income 43.1 44.2 43.9 44.3 42.1

LDR 79.9 89.6 89.3 90.9 88.5

NPL Gross 1.8 2.0 1.81 1.77 1.55

NPL Net 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3NPL coverage 228.0 208.0 208.0 194.4 218.4

ROA 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.7 5.0

ROE 38.7 32.6 33.1 33.2 34.1

Cost of Fund 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7

Source: Company

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)Banking Sector

Profit and Loss Statement

Yr-end Dec (Rpbn) 12A 13F 14F 15F

Net interes t income 36,484 41,942 48,216 58,922

Operating inc ome 44,873 50,763 57,053 68,028

Pre-provisions profit 25,382 30,458 34,232 40,817

Profit Before Tax 23,860 27,763 31,187 35,502

Tax (5,172) (5,553) (6,237) (7,100)

Net profit 18,687 22,211 24,889 28,402

Balance SheetYr-end Dec (Rpbn) 12A 13F 14F 15F

Cash 13,895 9,759 11,710 14,052

Plac ement with BI 42,524 52,046 62,455 74,947

Due from Other Banks & BI 66,243 78,069 93,683 93,683

Marketable Securi ties 41,137 45,540 54,649 65,578

Gross Loans 350,758 431,433 530,662 652,714

Loan Provisions (14,677) (14,677) (16,800) (20,716)

Investments-net 197 293 351 422

Fixed Assets 2,804 2,428 2,310 2,237

Other Assets 33,129 26,718 18,426 25,277

Total Assets 551,337 650,577 780,693 936,831

Deposits from customers 450,166 531,196 621,500 720,940

Deposits from other banks 2,779 11,178 15,314 23,043

Borrowings 10,889 10,619 14,549 21,891

Subordinated Loan 2,117 5,074 6,891 10,369

Tota l Lia blitie s 486,455 568,864 682,681 820,117

Total Equity 64,882 81,713 98,011 116,714

Company Background

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) is largest bank

in Indonesia based on loan. Total loans

(gross) in FY12 reached Rp351 trillion, which

is largely a loan to the MSMEs. BBRIsfocus on

business in MSME sector. Currently BBRIs

have more than 7,500 micro outlets units to

support its business

Shareholding Structure

Indonesia Government : 56.7%

Public : 43.3%

Price Chart

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Recommendation HistoryBank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)

Date Recommendation Closing Price Target

18-Dec-13 BUY 7,100 11,000

24-Oct-13 BUY 8,350 11,500

13-Sep-13 BUY 7,850 11,000

20-Aug-13 BUY 6,850 11,000

23-Jul-13 BUY 8,200 11,000

Recommendation ChartBank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)

Source: Bloomberg

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