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BORDER ENVIRONMENT COOPERATION COMMISSION
HOUR
TH
2.50
BIO
RegionalConsequencesOf ClimateVariability
September 2008
Integrating Environmental Solutions for the Border
XVIII Border Legislative Conference
California 12$ 184
Arizona 13$ 146.09
NuevoMéxico 8$ 58.92
Texas 43$ 748.67
76 en EUA$ 1,137.68
65 en México$ 1,965.57
Sonora, 18$ 131.35
Chihuahua, 16$ 258.48
Coahuila 3$ 156.60
Nuevo León, 2$ 67.29
141Proyectos con inversión de $3,103 millones de dólares
Baja California 15
$ 824.18
Tamaulipas, 11$ 527.67
Proyectos Certificados(millones de dólares)
30-Sep-08
State
# of Projects
SW AIR ENERGY WCons
W/WW
TOTALNo-BEIF BEIF California 0 0 0 1 3 0 4 Arizona 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 Nuevo México 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 Texas 4 0 2 1 12 3 22
USA 4 0 2 2 19 6 33 B. California 1 0 0 0 0 11 12 Sonora 2 1 0 0 0 6 9 Chihuahua 1 0 2 0 0 7 10 Coahuila 3 0 0 0 1 1 5 Nuevo León 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 Tamaulipas 2 2 1 0 4 6 15
México 9 3 3 0 7 31 53TOTAL 13 3 5 2 26 37 86
PROJECT PIPELINE
Year PDAP(MD)
BECC(MD)
Total(MD)
2006 $1.63 $0.39 $2.02
2007 $0.43 $0.54 $0.97
2008 $1.20 $0.27 $1.47
Total ($MD) $3.26 $1.20 $4.46
Historic to date
$30.28 $4.68 $34.96
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
WaterSewer
WastewaterTreatment
1995
2005
96
86
80
9170
310
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Co
vera
ge (
%)
Service Coverage Advancement in Mexico – 100 Km
An increase in wastewater treatment coverage from 31% to 80%, compares to the national average in Mexico of less than 35%
Program Accomplishments through PDAP/BEIF
Certified BEIF projects provide the capacity to treat 300M gallons per day of raw or inadequately treated wastewater, an equivalent to the wastewater discharge of 6.8M persons ~ approximately 50% of the border population.
Earth’s Exceptional Conditions
•Milky Way: Right size and type of galaxy•The Sun: Right size of star•Right distance from the Sun: Not so far, not so close:•Earth: Right size of planet•Jupiter: A meteors and comets catcher•The Moon: Partner for stability•Earth’s Nucleus: A magnetic shield caused by a semi-liquid nucleus•Plate Tectonics: Recycling crust to keep atmosphere balanced•Photosynthesis: Brilliant “invention”•Superior Life: Upper organisms development
There’s not better place…
There’s not any other place…
There’s not place to go…
11,500 yrs End of last glacial age
21,500 yrs Last glacial age peak
420,000 yrs Vostok nucleus
450,000 yrs Earth’s orbit similar to present conditions
780,000 yrs Earth’s magnetic camp inverted
1,000,000 yrs 3,200 meters
0 meters
A Prophetic Graph
Expected Consequences in General• Ecosystems: 20-30% of species are at risk of extinction if increases in global
average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5 °C.
• Food: At lower latitudes, crop productivity will decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C). At higher latitudes crop productivity will increase for temperature increases of 1-3°C, then decrease beyond that.
• Coasts: Many millions more people will be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s.
• Industry, Settlement and Society: At risk those in coastaland river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially cities.
• Human Health: Climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity.
• Water….see next
Observed Changes in the Large-scale Hydrological Cycle
– Increasing atmospheric water vapor content– Changing precipitation patterns, intensity and extremes
– Reduced snow cover and widespread of melting of ice
– Changes in soil moisture and runoff– Globally, land classified as very dry has more than doubled since 1970
Likely Consequences (1)
• Climate model simulations predict precipitation increases in high latitudes and parts of the tropics and decreases in some subtropical and lower mid-latitude regions, e.g. US-Mexico border.
• By the middle of the 21st century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease over some dry regions at mid latitudes and in the dry tropics
Surface Temperatures
Likely Consequences (2)• Increase precipitation intensity and variability are projected to increase the risk of flooding and drought in many areas.
• Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline in the course of the century
• Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes, including floods and droughts, are projected to affect water quantity and quality worsening food availability, stability, access and utilization
GreenlandAn ice-melting pot
Key Considerations (1)
• Climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure – including hydropower, structural flood defenses, drainage and irrigation systems- as well as water management practices
• Adaptation options designed to ensure water supply during average and drought conditions require integrated demand-side as well as supply-side strategies.
• Water resources management clearly impacts on many other policy areas, e.g., energy, health, food security and nature conservation.
• Several gaps in knowledge exist in terms of observations and research needs related to climate change and water.
Key Considerations (2)
Perspectives for Northern México and Southwestern US
• Richard Seager & Ting, Cane, Naik, Nakamura, Li, Cook– Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Palisades, New York 10964
• David W. Stahle– Tree Ring Laboratory, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas
• Mike Davis– Department of History, University of California at Irvine, California
Research Approach
Modeling of ancient climate using historic sea surface temperatures registry and validation
Ancient climate reconstruction by tree
ring analysis
Modeling of natural and antropogenic effects on
climate
Observations
XVI Century Mega-drought(1559-1582)
•The hardest known•Caused by a persistent La Niña event
Indice Palmer de Severidad de Sequia
Drought at the end of XIX century
Humedad Modelada del Suelo
Drought at mid XX century
Humedad Modelada del Suelo
Las Perspectivas para México
“Si las proyecciones de los modelos son correctas, México se enfrenta ya a una
declinación de sus recursos hídricos que tendrá serias consecuencias para el suministro de agua a
la población, la agricultura y las actividades económicas en general. Esta declinación es consecuencia del cambio climático, aunque
también se reconocen efectos sobrepuestos de ciclos naturales tales como La Niña”
Mexican drought: An observational, modeling and tree ring study of variability and climate changeRichard Seager et al
What Follows? (1)• Make everybody aware, specially the decision makers, of this situation
and the urgency to act. We are at the 11th Hour!• Develop a sound adaptation strategy for the border region
coordinated with regional and country-wide strategies, including:– Scenario development for the border region assisted by climate scientists
– Development of border-wide adaptation actions and goals– Development of a needs assessment effort to identify actions, projects and funds needed to cope with the challenges and to accomplish goals
– Identification of funds sources for immediate and future needs– Development of public policies and regulations needed for goals
accomplishment
What Follows? (2)• Develop a sound mitigation strategy for the border region coordinated with regional and country-wide strategies, Mitigation measures can reduce the magnitude of impacts of global warming on water resources, in turn reducing adaptation needs. Include:– Development of state-by-state inventories of GHG– Establishing of reduction goals according to global, national and/or regional GHG reduction approaches.
– Promotion of GHG market mechanisms– Development of public policies and regulations
needed for goals accomplishment
Organizations, agencies, federal, state
and local government bodies
Mitigation and Adaptation
Measures & Projects
BECC/NADB
Border Goals
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