C7- quy hoach nguon von (p2).pdf

Chng 7: Quy hoch ngun vn v la chn tp d n u t (phn 2)

Nguyn Hi Ngn H

[email protected]

B mn Ti Chnh Khoa Qun l Cng nghip i hc Bch Khoa - TPHCM

Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n 2

Ni dung

1. Ngun vn

2. Chi ph s dng vn

3. Sut sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c

4. La chn tp d n u t


2. Chi ph s dng vn

Cost of Equity

Cost of Debt

Cost of Capital (WACC) Chi ph s dng vn: l

bnh qun chi ph s dng

vn CSH v vn vay n

Cost of Equity (ie) Chi ph s dng vn ch s

hu: l chi ph c hi ca

vic s dng vn CSH.

Cost of Debt (id) Chi ph s dng n : l chi ph

phi tr cho ch n.


2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn - Cost of Capital

WACC (weighted average cost of capital): chi ph s dng vn bnh qun

Cd, Ce : tng n , tng vn ch s hu

V: tng ngun vn ( = Cd + Ce )

id: chi ph sd n sau thu

ie :chi ph sd vn ch s hu

ki C

V

i C

V

d d e e WACC =


2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn - Cost of Capital

Chng ta quan tm n chi ph s dng vn

trc thu hay sau thu ?

Khi thm nh d n, ta quan tm n dng tin

sau thu (CFAT) => ta ch quan tm n chi ph

s dng vn sau thu.

Ch c chi ph s dng n l cn iu chnh sang chi ph sau thu, bi v li vay c xem

nh mt khon chi ph c khu tr thu.


2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng n - Cost of Debt

Cs: n vay t t chc ti chnh Cb: n vay t tri phiu Cd: tng s n ( = Cb + Cs) ks: li sut trc thu ca n vay t t chc ti

chnh (ls thc)

kb: li sut trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc) t: thu sut

i d=


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Tnh ks: ls trc thu ca n vay t TCTC (ls thc)

ks = (1 + r/m1)m2 - 1

VD: Cty Vit Tin vay n t ngn hng 1 t ng, li

sut 20%/nm, ghp li theo qu. Nu thu sut TNDN

l 25% th li sut trc thu & sau thu m DN thc

tr cho khon n ny l bao nhiu?

Gii:

ks trc thu = [( 1 + 20%/4)4 1] = 21%

ks sau thu = 21% x (1- 25%) = 16%


2. Chi ph s dng vn


VD: Cty Vit Tin pht hnh 1000 tri phiu,

mi tri phiu gi 1 tr. Li tc hng nm l

80.000 (8%/nm), thi k o hn l 10 nm.

Gi s gi bn tri phiu Po ti thi im pht

hnh l 1,2 tr.

a/ Tm li sut thc ca tri phiu trc thu.

b/Tm li sut thc ca tri phiu sau thu, nu

thu TNDN l 25%

Tnh kb : ls trc thu ca tri phiu (ls thc)


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Gii:

a/ 1,2 = 0,08 x (P/A, kb, 10) + 1 x (P/F, kb, 10)

Dng pp ni suy ra kb = 5%

b/ kb sau thu = kb x ( 1- 25%) = 4%


Bi ging Lp v phn tch d n - 10

2. Chi ph s dng vn



Po (1-fc) = INT * (P/A, kb, n) + M * (P/F, kb, n)

Po : Gi bn tri phiu fc: chi ph pht hnh tri phiu (%) INT: li tc = li sut x mnh gi M : mnh gi n : k hn ca tri phiu


2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of Equity

1. Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng

- Cost of Common Stock(kc)

2. Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i

- Cost of Preferred Stock (kp)

3. Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li

- Cost of Retained Earnings (kr)

=> Chi ph s dng vn CSH - Cost of equity: bnh qun ca 3 chi ph kr kc, v kp


2. Chi ph s dng vn


nh gi c phiu thng

2. Tng trng (tc g)

1. Khng tng trng

1 1

0 2

10

DIV DIVP ...

1 r 1 r

DIVP

r

1 2 3DIV DIV DIV ... 2

1 1 1DIV , DIV (1 g), DIV (1 g) , ...

1 1

0 2

10

DIV DIV (1 g)P ...

1 r 1 r

DIVP

r g

r l sut sinh li yu cu ca c ng. i vi DN, sut

sinh li c ng yu cu chnh l chi ph m DN phi

tr khi sd vn ca c ng => r = kc


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn CP thng - Cost of common stock

(Gi nh c tc tng trng u hng nm vi tc g

v nh u t khng u c)

DIV1: c tc c phn thng nm th 1

Po: gi bn c phiu thng nm 0

f c : chi ph pht hnh c phiu thng (%)

g: tc pht trin ( = b*R)

+ b =t l ln gi li ti u t (=(EPSo DIVo)/ EPSo)

+ R=sut sinh li ti u t

kc =


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng

-Cost of common stock

- Trong TH c tc khng u, th ta c

cng thc tng qut sau:

Po = c


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng - Cost of common stock

VD: Cng ty IBM ang c 1 triu c phiu ang lu

hnh. Cng ty va bo co li nhun sau thu cn li

cho c ng nm nay l $2 triu, v d kin gi li 40%

ln ti u t vo nm sau. Sut sinh li ti u t ca

cng ty trc y l 16% v d kin s tng trong tng

lai. IBM pht hnh c phiu thng mi v bn vi gi

$10. Tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn ca cng ty?


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng - Cost of common stock

Gii:

Tc pht trin g = 0.4 x 0.16 = 6.4%

Thu nhp vo nm sau = 2.000.000 x (1+6.4%) = 2.128.000

C tc vo nm sau = 2.128.000 x ( 1 0.4) = 1.276.800

C tc trn mt c phiu vo nm sau = 1.276.800 /

1.000.000 = 1.28

Chi ph s dng vn c phn = 1.28/10 + 6.4% = 19.2%


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng (phn ny khng thi)

M hnh tng trng ca Gordon Shapiro (The Gordon Shapiro Growth Model)

M hnh tng trng ca Solomon (The Solomon Grown Model)

0

00

0

0

BV

DVEPS

P

DVRe

0

00

0

0

P

DVEPS

P

DVRe

kc

kc

BVo l gi bt tan ca

mt c phn ti nm 0

Po l gi th trng ca

mt c phn ti nm 0


2. Chi ph s dng vn



VD: Li nhun trn mt cp sau thu (EPS) ca cty Vit

Tin l 3400/cp thng, gi bn cp l 36.000/cp. Li

c phn (c tc) c chia hin nay l 1670/cp. T l li

nhun gi li ti u t (b) d kin s khng thay i

trong tng lai. Gi BVO hin nay l 19.500 /cp.

=> Tnh chi ph s dng vn c phn thng (sau thu)

ca cty theo 2 m hnh Gordon- Shapiro v Solomon.


2. Chi ph s dng vn



Li gii

Theo m hnh Gordon Shapiro:

Theo m hnh Solomon:

%5,131351,0500.19

670.1400.3

000.36

670.1

0

00

0

0 hayBV

DVEPS

P

DVRe

%45,90945,0000.36

670.1400.3

000.36

670.1

0

00

0

0 hayP

DVEPS

P

DVRe

kc

kc


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i

- Cost of preferred stock

DIV*: c tc c phn u i

Po: gi bn c phiu u i

f c: chi ph pht hnh c phiu u i (%)

kp=


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i

- Cost of preferred stock

VD: Cty IBM pht hnh c phiu u i vi gi

$100/cp v tr c tc u hng nm l $10.5. Nu chi

ph pht hnh l $4/cp, chi ph s dng vn c phn u

i l bao nhiu?

Gii: Kp = 10.5 / (100 4) = 10.94%


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li

- Cost of retained earning

Ti sao c chi ph s dng li nhun gi li?

Li nhun c th c gi li ti u t hoc chia c tc cho c ng.

Nu Cty tr c tc thp th nh u t c th mua c phiu ca cng ty khc hng c tc cao hn

=> Nu gi li ln ti u t, cty phi chu chi ph c

hi bng thu nhp m nh u t mong i t c

khi u t vo mt CP khc c cng ri ro.


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Chi ph s dng li nhun gi li

- Cost of retained earning

Trong , DIV1: c tc CP thng, Po: gi bn CP

thng, g: tc tng trng

Chi ph ln gi li = chi ph sd vn c phn thng nu

chi ph pht hnh bng 0. Nu ht ngun li nhun gi

li th cty mi pht hnh c phiu mi (trnh ke cao)

kr=


2. Chi ph s dng vn


Cost of Common Stock

Cost of Preferred Stock

Cost of Equity

i c c k c c k

c c k

e r e r c e e

p e p

( / ) ( / )

( / )

Cost of Retained Earnings

Cr = vn t ngun li nhun gi li,

Cc = vn t pht hnh CP thng mi

Cp = vn t pht hnh CP u i

Ce = vn CSH ( = Cr + Cc + Cp)

kc =

kr=

kp=

c


2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chi ph s dng vn v cu trc vn


3. Sut sinh li ti thiu chp nhn c

MARR l sut chit khu i tnh PW ca d n.

MARR l tiu chun so snh vi IRR ca d n

Lm sao tnh c MARR ???

=> Cch n gin nht l MARR = WACC. Tuy nhin,

mi d n c th c cch c lng MARR ring do

cc yu t c th sau:

- ri ro ca d n

- Vng d n

- C cu thu

- Cc phng php huy ng vn

- Gi tr MARR ca cc cng ty khc



Cc d n c lp: C th chn nhiu hn 1 DA trong tp

cc DA c lp, tu theo ngun ngn sch ca DN.

Khi c m c hi u t s c 2m - 1 tp d n.

Cc bc chn la tp d n:

1. Xc nh s tp d n

2. Sp xp cc tp d n tng dn theo vn u t.

3. Xc nh dng tin t cho tng tp d n

4. Tnh PW cho tng tp d n

5. Chn tp d n da vo ngun ngn sch B xc nh.



PA P Li tc rng N (nm)

A -12.000 +4.281 5

B -10.000 +4.184 5

C -17.000 +5.802 10

Xt cc DA c lp A,B,C sau v la chn tp d n

u t c li nht nu MARR = 15%. Ngun ngn sch

ca cng ty cho vic u t d n l B = 27.000 tr.



TT Tp DA P PW Nhn xt

1 B -10.000 4.025

2 A -12.000 2.350

3 C -17.000 12.120

4 AB -22.000 6.375

5 BC -27.000 16.145 Chn tp BC v ngn

sch l 27.000

6 AC -29.000 14.470 Loi ngay v vt NS

7 ABC -39.000 18.495 Loi ngay v vt NS


BI TP

Lm bi

7.3, 7.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.8, 7.9, 7.10, 7.11, 7.13,

7.14, 7.17, 7.18, 7.20, 7.21

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C7- quy hoach nguon von (p2).pdf