14
中国股市过去半年来已飙升超过五成。彭 博简报汇总彭博经济学家和知名市场策略 师的评论与分析,解释牛市背后动因,预测 未来走势,考量对实体经济的影响。 (本中文版所刊登文章与1月29日出版的英文版保持一致, 并未对经济发展和市场状况进行更新。 ) 2015年的 中国股市 牛市能否持续? 2月10日2015年 | www.bloombergbriefs.com

China Equity Boom

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

China Equity

Citation preview

  • (129)

    2015

    2102015 | www.bloombergbriefs.com

  • 2004A

    2015 4200 3

    4

    : 5

    6

    7

    8-9

    10-11

    (Fielding Chen)Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria

    (Tom Orlik)Stone & McCarthy Research Associates

    199910

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 2

  • 20154200

    460%

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    %

    4200

    :

    20071120091120077020094

    3%200720096%

    5%420010000

    34003400M215%8%15%8%

    2015340042002015

    PBOC

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 3

  • AH

    2008

    2015 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated.

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    2Q'00 2Q'02 2Q'04 2Q'06 2Q'08 2Q'10 2Q'12 2Q'14

    G

    DP

    :

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    % %

    :

    BRIEF brief WWW.BLOOMBERGBRIEFS.COM

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 4

  • : 651%

    20061,2002007106,0001,800

    12%23%11%

    20%

    63%

    (IPO)

    2013121450

    2015

    0

    1250

    2500

    3750

    5000

    6250

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    -3 () - () ()

    %

    :

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    IPO () ()

    10

    IPO

    :

    @BloomBerg

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 5

  • (Credit Suisse)(Vincent Chan)A242015

    A11A10%30%

    HAAHAH10%H30% A50%QEH

    AHAAH

    AA

    2015502015

    201520152800

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    %

    300

    :

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 6

  • 3%

    M2

    10%

    0% 10% 20% 30%

    5%

    103%

    10200660%

    50%

    20154000337618.5%

    0% 20% 40% 60%

    : 20112013

    ECFC CN

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 7

  • A

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    8000

    9000

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

    ECWB P 54813A2D04B000B4

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    500

    A

    201491510

    1900

    2100

    2300

    2500

    2700

    2900

    3100

    3300

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1100

    2013 2014 2015

    (

    )

    121

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    11-17 12-02 12-17 01-01 01-16

    10

    *

    ECWB P 54812E8C04700084

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 8

  • 1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

    -75

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

    %

    %

    ECWB P 54B934DD01F000BD

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

    %

    GDPGDP %

    ECWB P 54C83E7F0EC402B9

    ECWB P 5481377F04B0010A

    121114.1%14.3%

    50%

    8%20078%GDP13%GDP

    1750

    2000

    2250

    2500

    2750

    3000

    3250

    6.8

    7.0

    7.2

    7.4

    7.6

    7.8

    8.0

    2013 2014 2015

    2015 GDP

    2015GDP7%

    ECWB P 548124F7047000BD

    20157%

    ECST CN

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 9

  • 50%201516.710.518

    102015

    11%24%180%

    100%

    10%

    13.7%10.5%6.3%

    2014

    6.314100

    201525%2015

    LinkedIn: LinkedInBloomberg : weibo.com/chinabloomberg : Bloomberg,

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 10

  • (30)

    (80%)

    (3%)

    ()

    ()

    * **

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    0

    1. 2. *0.0410.040**5150

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 11

  • Michael [email protected]+1-212-617-6815Twitter: @M_McDonough

    Richard [email protected]+1-212-617-8737Twitter: @Yamarone

    Carl [email protected]+1-212-617-6935Twitter: @Riccanomix

    David [email protected]+44-20-7073-3769Twitter: @davidjpowell24

    Maxime [email protected]+44-20-3525-4538Twitter: @MxSba

    Jamie [email protected]+44-20-3525-0867Twitter: @JMurray804

    Tom [email protected]+86-10-6649-7211Twitter: @TomOrlik

    Fielding [email protected]+852-2977-4830Twitter: @fieldingchen

    Tamara [email protected]+65-6212-1140Twitter: @TamaraMastHend

    NI ECOCOM NI ECOPREVIEW NI ECOREACT

    NI ECOINSIGHT

    NI ECOCOM

    Josh [email protected]+1-212-617-3794Twitter: @JWrightStuff

    Niraj [email protected]+44-20-7330-7383Twitter: @economistniraj

    | |

    2102015 bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief: 2015: 12

  • Economics ETFs Oil Buyers Guide

    Economics Asia Financial Regulation Pipes & Wires

    Economics Europe Hedge Funds Private Equity

    Asia Corporate Treasury Hedge Funds Europe Real Estate

    Bankruptcy & Restructuring Leveraged Capital Structured Notes

    China Mergers Technical Strategies London (free brief)

    Clean Energy & Carbon Municipal Market Deutschland (free brief) Reserve (free brief)

    of readers say their Brief helps them do their jobs better.

    | |

  • Bloomberg Brief: 2015:

    Reto [email protected]+1-212-617-4582

    Justin Jimenez [email protected] +852-2977-2217

    Stew Hawkins [email protected] +852-2977-6019

    Nick Ferris [email protected] +1-212-617-6975

    Jennifer [email protected]+1-212-617-8074

    Jennifer Bernstein [email protected] +852-2977-6733

    Alex Brittain [email protected] +44-20-3525-3183

    Adrienne [email protected]+1-212-617-6073

    Anne Riley [email protected] +1-212-617-0061

    Ben Baris [email protected] +1-212-617-2459

    Lori Husted [email protected] +1-717-505-9701

    James Crombie [email protected] +1-212-617-3590

    Paul Smith [email protected] +44-20-3525-8653

    Scott Johnson [email protected] +44-20-3525-8027

    William C. Johnsen [email protected] +1-212-617-0509

    (Michael McDonough) [email protected]+1-212-617-6815

    Carl [email protected]+1-212-617-6935

    David [email protected]+44-20-7073-3769

    (Fielding Chen)[email protected]+852-2977-4830

    Jamie [email protected]+44-20-3525-0867

    Josh [email protected]+1-212-617-3794

    Maxime [email protected]+44-20-3525-4538

    Niraj [email protected]+44-20-7330-7383

    Richard [email protected]+1-212-617-8737

    Tamara [email protected]+65-6212-1140

    (Tom Orlik)[email protected]+86-10-6649-7211

    BRIEF 2015 Bloomberg LP

    Button 102: Page 2: Page 31: Page 42: Page 53: Page 64: Page 75: Page 86: Page 97: Page 108: Page 119: Page 1210: Page 1311:

    Button 103: Page 2: Page 31: Page 42: Page 53: Page 64: Page 75: Page 86: Page 97: Page 108: Page 119: Page 1210: Page 1311: