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Ni dung nghin cu

I. Khi nim c phiu

II. Phn tch c phiu

III. nh gi c phiu+ DDM

+ P/E

IV. L thuyt v th trng hiu qu (EMH-Efficient Market Hypothesis)

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I. Khi nim c phiu

nh ngha (UBCKNN)C phiu l mt loi chng khon c phthnh di dng chng ch hay bt ton ghi sxc nh r quyn s hu v l i ch h pphp ca ngi s hu c phiu i vi tisn hoc vn ca cng ty c phn.

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c im

C ng l ch s hu, khng phi l chn

Thu nhp t c phiu khng c nh doc tc v gi c phiu bin ng mnh

C phiu khng c thi hn

C ng c chia ti sn cui cng khicng ty ph sn hoc gii th

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Phn loi c phiu

Cn c vo vic lu hnh trn th trngC phiu hin hnh (Outstanding)

C phiu ngn qu (Treasury)Cn c vo vic pht hnh vn iu l

C phiu s cp (Primary)

C phiu th cp (Secondary)

Cn c vo quyn ca cngC phiu ph thng (Common)

C phiu u i (Preffered)

Cch phnloi ph

bin nht

C phiu thng (ph thng)

Trch nhim (2)

Quyn li (4)Quyn hng thu nhp

Quyn c chia ti sn thanh l

Quyn b phiu

Quyn mua c phiu mi

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C phiu u i

Ging c phiu thng

Ging tri phiu

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So snh c phiu u i v cphiu ph thng

COMMON STOCK

Pht hnh rng ri ra

cng chng C sut: khng ghi Li n, l chu Nhn li sau Hon vn sau (nu c) C phiu biu quyt Chuyn nhng thng

thng

PREFERRED STOCK

C la chn

Ghi c sut Hng li (c th tch ly)

Nhn li trc

Hon vn trc (nu c)

Cc nc: khng, VN: c

Khng, hoc hn ch

II. Phn tch c phiu

Tin hnh phn tch u t nhm tr li cc cu hi

trc khi ra quyt nh:

- Khi no l c hi thun li u t?

- Khi no cn phi rt ra khi th trng?

- u t vo loi chng khon no ph hp vi mc tiu

ra?

- Gi c ntn?

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Quy trnh phn tch c phiu c th tip cntheo 3 pp:

- Phng php phn tch t trn xung (top-down): ptch v m nn kt => ptch ngnh=>ptch cng ty.

- PP ptch t di ln (bottom-up): ptch chngkhon ring l => ptch ngnh =>ptch thtrng

- PP kt hp c 2 pp trn

II. Phn tch c phiu

II. Phn tch c phiu

mi trng chnh tr- x hi

mi trng php lut nh hng ca chu k kinh t v cc c

sc kinh t

Tc ng ca m nn kinh t v nng

lc cnh tranh

Phn tch vm nn kinh t: tng trng kinh t (GDP)

Vic lm T gi hi oi

Thm ht ngn sch

Lm pht v li sut

Cc chnh sch ti khav tin t

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II. Phn tch c phiu

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Phn tch ngnh:

Lch s ngnh trn TG v VN

Tnhma v ca ngnh

Cc yu t tc ng ti cnh tranh ca ngnh: Tc ng ca ngi mua ti cc DN trongngnh

Tc ng ca ngi bn t i cc DN trong ngnh

nh hng ca SPthay th

nh hng ca cc SPmangtnh h tr

Nguy c t i th mi g ia nhp

Cc yu t cnhtranh trongni b ngnh

Cu trc ngnh (cnh tranh t do, cnh tranh c quyn,c quyn nhm, c quyn

Tc tng trngv vng i sn phm ca ngnh16/04/2011 Ti chnh tin t- Chng 1 13

II. Phn tch c phiu

Phn tch cng ty:

Phn tch c bn v cng ty:

Phn tch ti chnh ca cng ty:

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II. Phn tch c phiu

Phn tch c bn v cng ty: Trin vng pht trinChin lc kinhdoanh ca cngtyPhng hng tp trung vnThay i v a ra sp mi

Nng lc cnh tranha v cnh tranhTl sn phm ca cngty chim lnhtrn ttNng lc cnh tranh ca sp

Nng lc qun l kinh doanhca cng ty

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II. Phn tch c phiu

Phn tch ti chnh ca cng ty: Phn tch bng biu bo co ti chnh ch yu

(bng CKT, BCKQKD, Bng LCTT)

Phn tch tl ti chnh tng nm H s kh nngsinh li

H s c cu ti chnh

Cc chs v hiu qu kinh doanh

Cc chs v c phiuC tc

EPS

P/ED/E16/04/2011 Ti chnh tin t- Chng 1 16

II. Phn tch c phiu

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III. nh gi c phiu

Gi tr c phiu

Phng php xc nh gi c phiu

DDM (Dividend discount model)P/E ratio (Price/Earning)

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Gi tr c phiu

Mnh gi c phiu

(par-value)

Gi tr s sch ca c phiu(Book value)

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu

(Market value)

Hin gi ca c phiu

(Present value)

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Mnh gi c phiu (par-value)

L gi tr ghi trn giy chng nhn c phiu

Chc gi tr danh ngha

Thng thng, mnh gi c phiu c tnh:

Mnh gi c phiumi pht hnh

Vn iu l ca cng ty c phn

Tng s c phiu ng k pht hnh

=

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Gi tr k ton ca c phiu(Book value)

L gi tr ti sn rng (net worth) ca cng tytrn mi c phiu theo bng cn i ti sn

(balance sheet) Phn nh tnh trng vn c phn ca cng ty

ti mt thi im nht nhThi imcui nm

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V d v Book-value

Nm 2006, cng ty c phn ABC thnh lpvi vn iu l l 30 t ng, s c phiung k pht hnh l 3 triu CP.

Nm 2007, cng ty quyt nh tng vn bngcch pht hnh thm 1 triu CP. Ti thi imny, gi bn mi CP trn th trng l25.000. Bit rng qu tch lu dng cho ut cn li tnh n cui nm 2007 l 10 tng. Tnh gi tr s sch ca CP.

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V d

31/12/2007:

+Vn c phn theo mnh gi:

4.000.000 x 10.000/c phiu = 40 tng

+Vn thng d:

(25.000 10.000) x 1.000.000 = 15 tng

+Qu tch lu: 10 tng

=> Tng s vn c phn: 65 tng

Gi trs sch ca c phiu:

65 tng/4 triu CP = 16.250 ng

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Gi tr th trng ca c phiu(Market value)

Gi c phiu trn th trng ti mt thi im nhtnh.

Tu theo quan h cung cu m gi tr th trng cth thp hn hoc cao hn, hoc bng gi tr thcca n ti thi im mua bn.

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Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trongtng lai (Value of future investment)

Nu cc nh u t tin rng cng ty s tmc t sut li nhun cao trong tng lai th

h

s

chp nh

n mua c

phi

u v

i gi caohn gi c phiu hin ti

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Phng php xc nh gi c phiu

C 3 phng php xc nh gi c phiu

1. M hnh chit khu dng c tc(DDM-Dividend discount model)

2. Phng php chs

(P/E ratio)

3. Phng php chit khu dng tin (Discounted

Cashflow model)16/04/2011

M hnh chit khu c tc(DDM)

M hnh chit khu dng c tc cho php xc nhgi c phiu khi bit c tc c tr tng thi k v

li sut yu cuCng thc tng qut :

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M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)

Nu ti nm th H, gi c phiu l PH th gi hin til:

Gi nh:+ mc li sut chit khu ks,+ cho d cc nh u t gi c phiu trong 1,2,hay Hnm ri sau bn th gi c phiu thi im hin ti

vn khng thay i

Nu c phiu c NT nm v hn, n tin tiv cng, gi tr hin ti ca Pn/(1+r)n tin ti 0,cng thc trn tr thnh:

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M hnh chit khu c tc (DDM)