Danske-Spains unrealistic expectations

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    www.danskeresearch.com

    Investment ResearchGeneral Market Conditions

    The Spanish government expects the recession to come to an end by mid-2013. In an

    environment of fiscal tightening and sliding house prices, that appears to be wishful

    thinking.

    Even if Spain manages to deliver the anticipated -0.5% growth in 2013, this does not

    justify the governments expectations that the unemployment rate should decline

    slightly in 2013. It is simply at odds with the empirical evidence.

    We expect that the Spanish economy will contract 1.5% or more in 2013, that Spain

    will miss its fiscal target and that the unemployment rate will rise to at least 26.5%.

    Export-driven growth

    The Spanish government expects an export-driven recovery that will bring Spanish

    growth back into positive territory by mid-2013. The assumption is that Spanish exports

    can grow 6-7% annually in 2013-15. This may materialise if global growth picks up

    notably or Spain manages to win global market shares, e.g. in services and green energy.

    We find that it is an ambitious target that may prove difficult to reach, though not

    impossible. A driver for winning market shares is to become more competitive. The new

    government has undertaken a lot of reforms during the last 10-11 months. But it is no

    time for complacency. Looking at the business climate and unit labour costs, we believe

    that Spain is really only halfway through the needed reform agenda.

    However, our real concern is that even if exports grow as much as anticipated, the

    contraction in domestic demand will be much bigger than the government anticipates.

    Austerity and fiscal multipliers

    The Spanish government needs to reduce the fiscal deficit by at least 1.8% of GDP next

    year to reach its target. This will have a substantial negative impact on growth. In an

    economy operating close to its capacity constraint the fiscal multiplier is probably close

    to zero, as the private sector will replace public sector cuts. However, when demand is

    lacking, as is the case in Spain, there is little reason why cuts in the public sector should

    cause an increase in private sector production. Until recently, IMF consensus was a fiscal

    multiplier around 0.5, but in October IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Daniel

    Leigh emphasised that during recessions the multiplier is probably in the range of 0.9 to

    1.7. In the absence of a central bank response, the multiplier is probably at the high end of

    this range. Assuming a fiscal multiplier of 1.5 means that a 1.8% cut in the budget deficit

    should pull GDP growth down by as much as 2.7%.

    31 October 2012

    Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 3 of this report.

    Senior Economist

    Frank land Hansen

    +45 45 12 85 26

    [email protected]

    Chief Strategist

    Bernt Christian Brun

    +47 23 13 91 90

    [email protected]

    Spanish government budget

    00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    -10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4% of GDP % of GDP

    Budget Balance

    Source: Reuters EcoWin, Spanish government

    ResearchSpains unrealistic expectations

    Spanish export growth

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25% y/y % y/yExport growth

    Mean

    Source: Reuters EcoWin

    GDP and fiscal consolidation

    Real GDP Growth, % y/y

    -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5Increaseingovernmentsurplus

    -7.5

    -5.0

    -2.5

    0.0

    2.5

    5.0

    7.5

    + 2 standarddeviations

    Expected GDP growth andfiscal consolidation in 2013

    %-point

    2012

    Source: Reuters EcoWin, Danske Bank

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    Housing market downturn

    At the same time, we expect house prices to continue to slide in Spain, which will

    dampen domestic demand further. Declining house prices are a drag on private

    consumption not only because it reduces wealth, but also because uncertainty about the

    extent of future house price declines causes substantial precautionary savings. Spain hasseen a housing bubble comparable with that of Ireland, but for now the decline in official

    house prices has been much more modest. We would not be surprised to see another 20%

    decline in Spanish house prices over a 3-4 year period. This may amount to an additional

    drag of about 1% in annual GDP growth (assuming that the elasticity of GDP to house

    prices is 0.2). All in all, we expect these two headwinds to drag growth down by around

    3.7%.

    On top of this, the Spanish banks are expected to continue to deleverage. Spanish banks

    have a lot of bad assets on their books and we expect credit conditions to remain tight. An

    ongoing credit contraction is an important headwind too, although difficult to quantify.

    With all these headwinds we really have a hard time seeing how Spain can return to

    positive growth by mid next year. It is pretty much the same as saying that Spain would

    be able to grow at least 4-5% next year in the absence of headwinds. We do not think so.

    Unemployment likely to continue to rise

    Even if the Spanish government manages to deliver the -0.5% growth anticipated for next

    year, it is unlikely that it will succeed in reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3%-points

    as foreseen. The historical relationship between GDP and unemployment suggests that

    with a 0.5% contraction in GDP the unemployment rate should rise 2.6 %-points. The

    governments expectation is four standard deviations away from this. On top of this, we

    would argue that growth is much more likely to be -1.5% or less, which suggests an

    increase in the unemployment rate of 4.0% or more. We agree that the impact on the

    unemployment rate is probably lower at the end of a recession than at the beginning.

    Taking this into account we would still expect the unemployment rate to increase at least

    1.5%-point next year. The governments expectations of a 0.3%-point decline in the

    unemployment rate are just wishful thinking.

    Complacency is a risk

    It is of course worrying that economic growth might be worse than one could wish for.

    But it is even more worrying, in our view, that large parts of official Spain appear

    complacent. The new government has delivered important reforms during the past 11months, but we think it is too early to believe that the work done is sufficient. If the

    Spanish government does not continue its reform efforts constantly, its problems could

    grow much bigger.

    We expect that Spain will eventually have to ask the ESM for a precautionary credit line,

    which will pave the way for the ECB to start buying Spanish government bonds. The

    Spanish government would be well advised to adjust its fiscal targets for 2013 before

    asking for help. The ECB will, in our view, not refrain from buying Spanish government

    bonds when it becomes clear that Spain is likely to miss its 2013 targets, but fiscal targets

    and consolidation efforts will then have to be renegotiated. In such a negotiation process

    the European partners might demand additional reforms.

    Spanish house price bubble

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    250

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    250

    Spain

    Index, 2000=100

    Eurozone Ireland

    Ireland,discontinued

    Index, 2000=100

    Source: Reuters EcoWin

    Wishful thinking

    Real GDP Growth, % y/y

    -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6unemploymen

    t,%-pointchange,y

    /y

    -7.5

    -5.0

    -2.5

    0.0

    2.5

    5.0

    7.5

    10.0

    + 2 standarddeviations

    Expected GDP growthand unemployment

    Source: Reuters EcoWin, Danske Bank

    ECB has helped

    Jan

    12

    Mar May Jul Sep

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7%, 2-year government bond yields

    Spain

    Italy

    Source: Reuters EcoWin

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    Disclosure

    This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, a division of Danske Bank A/S (Danske Bank).

    The author of this research report is Frank land Hansen, Senior Economist.

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