NH GI BC U TC NG CA CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH V SUY THOI KINH T TON CU

N H THNG AN SINH X HI CC NC BC U

PGS. TS. inh Cng Tun

Vin Nghin cu Chu u

t vn

Mc d xy dng h thng an sinh x hi (ASXH) theo nhng cch thc chung nht, nhng khng phi cc quc gia EU u thc hin m hnh ging nhau v ASXH. Mi nc, mi khu vc thc hin chnh sch ASXH da trn nhng iu kin kinh t v cc vn x hi ang tn ti ca chnh bn thn h. Trong h thng ASXH cc nc EU, cc nc Bc u i theo mt m hnh ring, trong im c trng c bn ca h thng ASXH Bc u l kt hp thu cao v h thng phc li ho phng thc hin mc tiu tng trng nhanh v hn ch tht nghip. Tuy nhin, trong thi gian gn y, h thng ASXH Bc u gp phi nhiu thch thc, c bit trong bi cnh khng hong kinh t ton cu lan rng k t nm 2008.

1. Nhng thch thc ca h thng an sinh x hi Bc u hin nay

Mc d c th gii nh gi cao v nhng thnh cng trong vic m bo ASXH ton din cho ngi dn, xy dng nn mt x hi bnh ng, on kt v hnh phc,

nhng h thng ASXH ca cc nc Bc u trc khi xy ra khng hong n cng EU v khng hong kinh t ton cu nm 2008 n nay gp phi nhng thch thc khng nh. C th l:

Th nht: Chi ph cho h thng ASXH Bc u l khng nh, trong khi t l ngi dn tham gia th trng lao ng ngy cng thu hp khin cn i thu chi cho qu ASXH khu vc ny gp nhiu kh khn. Tnh trong GDP, chi ph ASXH cc nc Bc u cao nht khu vc chu u (chim 26,9% GDP nm 2004), v mc thu nh vo ngi lao ng cng cao nht khu vc chu u (46,9% GDP nm 2004). Thu l cng c to nn h thng ASXH ton din Bc u, bi da vo ngun thu t thu, nh nc c th cn i c thu chi ngn sch v cc nc Bc u khng b lm vo tnh trng thm ht ngn sch cao nh nhiu nc EU khc. Vo nm 2004, cc nc Bc u hng thng d ngn sch 4,1% GDP nh cn i c thu (t thu) v chi ca chnh ph cho cc mc tiu pht trin trong c ASXH.

CHNH TR - AN NINH CHU U

Bng 1: Cn i thu chi ngn sch ca cc nc EU nm 2004 (% GDP)

Nc Thu Tng doanh thu ca chnh

ph

Tng chi tiu ca chnh

ph

Cn i ngn sch

Chi tiu ASXH

an Mch 48,8 58,9 56,3 1,7 29,2 Phn Lan 44,2 52,5 50,7 1,9 24,8 Thy in 44,0 57,9 46,4 11,4 23,9 Na Uy 50,4 58,3 57,3 1,4 29,8 Nhm Anglo-saxon 32,0 38,0 38,1 0,1 17,4 Nhm a trung hi 36,3 43,8 46,9 -3,5 22,4 Nhm lc a 40,6 47,6 49,7 -2,1 25,7 Nhm Bc u 46,9 56,9 52,7 4,1 26,9 OECD 35,9 43,9 45,1 -3,6 20,8

Ngun: Neil Brooks and Thaddeus Hwong (2006), The Social benefits and economic

costs of taxation, Canadian Centre for Policy alternatives.

Nhng bin php ci cch thu thi gian gn y h dn mc thu p dng cho cc nc Bc u v vo nm 2008 mc thu trung bnh ca cc nc Bc u u gim mnh (xem bng 1). iu ny ng ngha vi ngun thu ngn sch t thu gim dn, trong khi ASXH nhng nm gn y lin tc tng cao do nhng l do nhn khu hc v th trng lao ng, c bit cao trong lnh vc chm sc ngi gi, m au v bo v sc khe do xu hng pht trin nhn khu hc bi s lng ngi gi Bc u khng ngng gia tng. Tui tc ca lc lng lao ng ang l mi e da n s n nh v bn vng ca m hnh nh nc phc li Bc u bi m hnh ny ch yu da vo vic nh thu thu nhp ca th h ang lm vic b p ASXH cho th h ngi gi, tr em v nhng ngi m au bnh tt. Mc d t l ngi c vic lm khu vc Bc u hin nay cao hn so vi cc nc EU khc

(bng 1), nhng do tng tui th, cng thm t l sinh thp dn khu vc ny ang dn n tnh trng gi ha dn s v s thiu ht ngun nhn lc tr cho th trng lao ng trong tng lai. iu ny t ra thch thc i vi vic m rng ASXH trong nhiu lnh vc nh an sinh thu nhp (tin lng hu), chm sc sc khe cho ngi gi. N cng dn n tnh trng lc lng dn s tham gia th trng lao ng ngy cng t hn, khin nng sut lao ng suy gim v t ra nhng thch thc v ngun thu ti chnh cho h thng ASXH.

Th hai: Chnh sch ASXH ang t ra nhng thch thc cho th trng lao ng khu vc Bc u. c trng c bn ca h thng ASXH Bc u l m bo y vic lm cho ngi lao ng v trn thc t s tham gia ca dn chng Bc u trn th trng lao ng t t l cao nht so vi cc

nh gi bc u tc ng...

5

nc EU khc. S tham gia y ca ngi dn Bc u trn th trng lao ng gp phn tch cc thc y cc hot ng kinh t, mt khc to c s nh nc nh thu thu nhp phc v mc tiu ti chnh ca h thng ASXH. Tuy nhin, tnh trng lm vic bn thi gian hay cn gi l lm vic na ngy (part-time) khu vc Bc u ngy cng ph bin v t l cao hn cc nc EU khc. Nhng ngi lm vic bn thi gian ch yu l ph n, ngi gi v ngi m au bnh tt. Nhng l do khin m hnh lm vic bn thi gian cc nc Bc u c rt nhiu, trong c nhng l do thuc v gii ch v nhng l do thuc v h thng ASXH v chnh sch gia nh ca cc nh nc phc li Bc u. Theo quy nh ca EU, s gi lm vic ti a trong tun l 48

gi (2003/88/EC), nhng Phn Lan, Thy in v Na Uy, s gi lm vic ti a theo lut php ch l 40 gi, thm ch cn gim mnh mt s ngnh ngh. Ngoi nhng l do ngi lao ng a ra nh ngh m, chm sc tr em, l do gia nh, i hc c hng ASXH t chnh ph, lm vic na ngy cn tim n nhng nguyn nhn thiu vic lm v nguyn nhn b p buc khng t nguyn t pha ngi lao ng. Theo bo co ca OECD (2010), lm vic na ngy c ngha l ngi lao ng khng c kh nng tm kim mt vic lm y , v vy t l tht nghip tim n khu vc Bc u l rt cao. Thng k ca EU v OECD cho thy, vo nm 2010 s ngi lm vic na ngy khng t nguyn Thy in v Phn Lan cao hn nhiu so vi khu vc EU-15.

Bng 2: T l vic lm na ngy khng t nguyn trong tng s vic lm bn thi gian cc nc Bc u so vi EU15

Lm vic na ngy khng t nguyn

an Mch

Phn Lan

Na Uy Thy in

EU15

Thng k ca EU (15-74 tui) 20002010

13,7 14,8

34,8 26,1

11,1 16,9

23,3 26,1

16,3 25,2

Thng k ca OECD (15-74 tui) 20002010

11,0 10,6

34,2 27,0

6,1 5,8

24,5 21,8

12,8 20,2

Ngun: OECD.Stat.http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?datasetCode=IMVPT_I

hnh thnh nn mt th trng lao ng tch cc, chi ph ASXH Bc u ngy cng m rng cho lc lng lao ng lm na ngy nhm hn ch tht nghip. Tnh trng thiu vic lm v lm vic na ngy

khng t nguyn c nh gi l tht nghip mt phn, n y t l tht nghip ca cc nc Bc u cao hn rt nhiu so vi t l tht nghip chnh thc c cng b.

Hnh 1: T l tht nghip thc t Bc u nm 2008 (%)

Ngun: Anita Haataja, Meria Kauhanen and Jouko Natti (2011), Underemployment and part-time work in the Nordic Countries, Kela Research Department, Working Papers 31.

Ghi ch: unemployment: tht nghip; Partial unempl: tht nghip mt phn; Total unempl: tng tht nghip.

C ch li ch cho tht nghip v cc c ch ASXH khc cho ngi lm vic na ngy cc nc Bc u ang tip tc c ci cch nhm khuyn khch ngi dn tham gia th trng lao ng. Tuy nhin, cc hnh thc lm vic na ngy Bc u cho thy nhng vn nghim trng ca th trng lao ng Bc u hin nay v trong tng lai.

Th ba: Do s gn kt cht ch gia gio dc v vic lm, cc nc Bc u ang phi i mt vi nhng thch thc v gio dc. m bo dn chng tham gia y vo th trng lao ng, gio dc l yu t quan trng gip ngi dn trnh c tnh trng b gt ra ngoi l x hi v thot ngho. Trong nhiu thp k qua, Bc u

c nh gi l khu vc c s pht trin ngun nhn lc t trnh cao trn th gii, tuy nhin y cng l mt sc p i vi mt b phn ngi dn khng c trnh gio dc cao, khin h c nguy c ri vo tnh trng b gt ra ngoi l x hi. Phn Lan l nc ang gp vn ln v vic th h thanh nin ang ri vo tnh trng bn l ha do khng t c trnh gio dc cao. cc nc khc nh Thy in, Na Uy, nhng ngi c trnh gio dc thp nht cng l nhng ngi b ri vo tnh trng bn l ha. Nhng s liu thng k ca OECD nm 2007 cho thy cc nc Bc u nhng ngi t trnh gio dc i hc tr ln c c hi kim vic lm tt hn nhng ngi c trnh gio dc thp

nh gi bc u tc ng...

7

hn. Nhng ngi c trnh gio dc i hc tham gia vo th trng lao ng mt cch n nh v khng phi i mt vi tnh trng tht nghip nh nhng ngi thuc nhm ngi khc. Vi nhng ngi b lit k vo danh sch bn l ha, nhng ri ro v ngho kh ti chnh (thu nhp ch bng 60% thu nhp trung bnh ca c nc), phi chu nhng bt bnh ng v gio dc v chm sc sc khe, to p lc gia tng chi ph ASXH cho chnh ph ngy cng ln.

2. Bc u nh gi tc ng ca cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu n h thng ASXH cc nc Bc u

Cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu c nhng nh hng mnh n cc nn kinh t Bc u khin khu vc ny chu ri ro trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau. L nhng nn kinh t m ca, c quy m nh, cc nc Bc u c hng li mnh m t tng trng thng mi v u t ton cu, do vy trong bi cnh thng mi v u t quc t gim cha tng c trong ba nm qua, cc nn kinh t Bc u chu nhiu tc ng nng n. Tc tng trng GDP ca khu vc Bc u gim t 2,9% nm 2007 xung 0,4% nm 2008, mc -4,4% nm 2009 v phc hi mc 1,7% nm 2010 v 2,5% vo nm 2011.

Bng 3: Tc ng ca khng hong kinh t ton cu ti tng trng GDP, tht nghip, ngn sch cc nc Bc u

Nc 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*Tng trng GDP (%)

an Mch 3,4 1,7 -0,9 -5,1 1,2 1,1 Phn Lan 4,4 4,8 1,2 -7,8 1,5 2,4 Na Uy 2,3 2,7 1,8 -1,5 0,7 1,4 Thy in 4,5 2,7 -0,5 -4,4 2,3 4,0 Bc u 3,7 2,9 0,4 -4,4 1,7 2,5 EU 3,2 2,8 0,7 -4,2 0,8 -

Tht nghip (%) an Mch 3,8 2,8 1,8 3,5 5,2 6,2 Phn Lan 7,7 6,9 6,4 8,2 10,0 7,8 Na Uy 3,5 2,5 2,6 3,2 3,7 3,3 Thy in 7,1 6,1 6,2 8,3 9,7 7,5 Bc u 5,5 4,6 4,3 6,0 7,3 6,2 EU 8,5 7,4 7,2 9,3 10,5 -

Ngn sch chnh ph (%) an Mch 5,0 4,4 3,4 -3,0 -5,8 - Phn Lan 4,0 5,2 4,5 -2,2 -4,0 - Na Uy 18,5 17,7 18,8 9,7 9,3 Thy in 2,2 3,4 3,1 -1,6 -3,0 - Bc u 7,5 7,8 7,6 0,9 -0,5 - EU -1,4 -0,6 -2,0 -7,3 -8,1

Ngun: Bc u Council of Ministers (2011), Global Pressure Bc u Solutions v (*): Bc u Outlook 2012 Danske Bank.

T l tht nghip cc nc Bc u trong nhng nm khng hong kinh t ton cu cng tng mnh, t mc 4,3% nm 2008 ln mc 6% nm 2009, 7,3% nm 2010 v 6,2% nm 20111. Theo bo co ca Tng cc Thng k an Mch, nm 2010 c 164,5 nghn ngi an Mch lm vo tnh trng tht nghip. Ngy cng nhiu ngi phi ri khi th trng lao ng do khng c vic lm. Ring qu I nm 2012, an Mch mt 9.000 vic lm, trong 4.000 vic lm khu vc cng cng v 5.000 vic lm ti khu vc t nhn2, khin th trng lao ng chu p lc gh gm. Ti Thy in, t l tht nghip tng mnh, t mc 6,2% nm 2008 ln mc 8,3% nm 2009, 9,7% nm 2010 v 7,5% nm 2011. Phn Lan l nc c t l tht nghip cao nht khu vc Bc u, mc 8,2% nm 2009 so vi mc 6,4% nm 2008, tng ln mc 10% vo nm 2010.

Khng hong kinh t ton cu v n cng EU cng tc ng tiu cc n ngun thu ngn sch ca chnh ph v n cng ca cc nc Bc u. T mt khu vc lun c thng d ngn sch ln trong EU, mc 7,6% GDP vo nm 2008, cc nc Bc u phi chu mc thm ht ngn sch 0,9% GDP vo nm 2009 v -0,5% GDP vo nm 2010. Nc c thm ht ngn sch ln nht Bc u l an Mch v Phn Lan, vi mc

1 Nordic Council of Ministers (2011), Global Pressure Nordic Solutions. 2 Nordic Outloojk 2012, Danske Bank.

thm ht ngn sch nm 2009 l -3% GDP v nm 2010 l -5,8% GDP i vi an Mch, v -2,2% GDP v -4% GDP i vi Phn Lan. Cc ngnh cng nghip ti chnh cng chu sc p rt ln t th trng M v chnh sch tin t ca khu vc Bc u (c bit l an Mch v Phn Lan l thnh vin ca Khu vc ng Euro) buc phi tun th nghim ngt cc ch tiu gi cho s n nh ca ng euro. Lm pht cng gia tng cc nc vng Scandinavia do nhng yu km hot ng kinh doanh trong nc.

N cng ca cc nc Hy Lp, Ty Ban Nha, B o Nha... nhanh chng lan rng ra ton EU v nh hng n cc nc Bc u. Mc d khng phi chu nhng tc ng ca cuc khng hong n cng khu vc EU, nhng n cng ca cc nc Bc u cng tng nhanh trong giai on 2009-2011. Vo nm 2009, n cng ca Phn Lan chim 43,5% GDP, nm 2010 tng ln 48,4% GDP v nm 2011 l 48,6% GDP. N cng ca an Mch cng tng t mc 42,9% GDP nm 2010 ln mc 46,5% GDP nm 20113. Nhn chung, n cng ca cc nc Bc u thp hn nhiu so vi cc nc EU khc, khng mc ng bo ng, nhng cng gy ra nhng kh khn kinh t nht nh cho cc nc Bc u.

3 Nordic Outlook 2012, sd.

Hnh 2. N cng cc nc Bc u v khu vc ng Euro (% GDP)

Ngun: Peter Birch Sorensen (2011), Long term fiscal sustainability: a Danish and Nordic Successs Story? Nykredit Capital Markets Day, Copenhagen.

Cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu c nhng tc ng tiu cc n h thng ASXH Bc u trn nhiu phng din. Cuc khng hong tc ng n th trng lao ng, sc khe, thu nhp, nh , vic lm, khin ngi dn phi chu nhiu tn thng khi nn kinh t lm vo suy thoi, ng thi dn n chi tiu cho ASXH trong khng hong gp nhiu thch thc hn nhm m bo s n nh x hi. Vi chc nng em li li ch ASXH cho tt c mi ngi, t tr em, cha m, ngi gi, ngi mt vic lm, chm sc sc khe vt cht v tinh thn, cc nh nc phc li Bc u gp gnh nng rt ln v kinh ph v ngun lc bi hai l do sau: Th nht, t l tht nghip gia tng trong thi k khng hong 2008-2012 dn n cc ngun qu m bo ASXH v chi tiu nh nc cho bo tr x hi tng ln nhanh chng; Th hai, do tng trng kinh t thp, s tham

gia ca ngi dn trn th trng lao ng gim, mc lng cho ngi lao ng b h thp, dn n tnh trng nh nc khng c kh nng thu thu t ngi lao ng b p cho vic m rng chi tiu ASXH. Trong khng hong, hu ht cc nc chu u trong c c cc nc Bc u u phi tung ra cc gi ti chnh kch cu phn ng vi khng hong, dn n thm ht ngn sch nh nc v thu hp cc qu ASXH. Nu khng hong c khc phc sm v nn kinh t tng trng tr li, chnh ph cc nc chu u s khng lm vo khng hong n nng n. So vi cc nn kinh t EU khc, cc nc vng Bc u chu nhng tc ng khng qu nng n t khng hong, ngn sch b thu hp, n cng tng nhanh nhng c hai ch s ny u khng n mc nguy him. Tng trng kinh t nhanh chng phc hi, tuy nhin cuc khng hong kinh

Nghin cu Chu u - European studies review No9 (144).2012

10

t ton cu vn em li nhiu kh khn cho cc nc Bc u bi chi tiu v li ch ca ngi dn b ct gim nhanh chng. Ti an Mch, trong hai nm 2008-2009, s ngi b mt vic lm ln ti 93.000 ngi v tip tc mc 78.000 ngi vo nm 2010. Thng d ngn sch cng cng gim mnh t 59,8 t DKK nm 2008 xung mc thm ht 47 t DKK nm 2009, 80,1 t DKK vo nm 2010 v 78,7 t DKK nm 20114. S st gim ngun thu ngn sch n mc thm ht khin ngi tht nghip v nhng nhm ngi ang c hng ASXH an Mch b ct gim rt ln ngun ASXH, c th l ngi tht nghip ch c hng tr cp tht nghip trong vng 2 nm thay v 4 nm nh trc y k t 1/7/2010. Cc khon tr cp cho gia nh v tr em cng gim rt mnh ti an Mch do nhng kh khn kinh t trong nc. Vo nm 2009, an Mch phi chi tiu 539 t kroner (95,7 t USD), chim 33% GDP cho cc dch v ASXH v sc khe khc phc nhng kh khn v vic lm, tht nghip, sc khe cho ngi dn trong thi k khng hong. Ti Phn Lan, nhng kh khn kinh t tc ng nng n vo ngi lao ng, khin nhu cu ASXH tng cao c v kinh ph v dch v. m bo s n nh x hi, chnh ph Phn Lan phi tng chi tiu ASXH ln mc 29% GDP vo nm 2009 thay v mc 25,4-26,3% nm 2006-20085. Mc tng ny

4 Nordic Social Statistical Committee, 2010, Social Protection in the Nordic Countries. 5 Nordic Social Statistical Committee, sd.

khin thm ht ngn sch ca Phn Lan nm 2009 mc -2,2% GDP so vi mc thng d 4,5% GDP ca nm 2008 v mc 5,2% GDP ca nm 2007, tip tc mc thm ht nng n hn vo nm 2010 l -4% GDP6. Ti Thy in, t l tht nghip tng rt cao to p lc cho ngun thu t thu ca chnh ph. Vo nm 2007, tng doanh thu t thu ca chnh ph Thy in l 40 t SEK, nm 2008 gim cn 10 t SEK, nm 2009 gim cn 15 t SEK v nm 2010 gim cn 10 t SEK7. Trong khi , tht nghip tip tc tng v nhng chi tiu ASXH cho ngi gi, ngi m cng tip tc tng cao v to p lc rt ln cho h thng ASXH Thy in.

Trong khng hong, cc nc Bc u n lc tm kim cc gii php bo v nn kinh t ca h. Hng lot cc chin lc ci cch c ra bao gm cc chng trnh tht lng buc bng ct gim cc c ch ASXH, tm kim cc th trng xut khu mi nh th trng cc nc BRIC, gim ph thuc vo th trng EU v Bc M, thc hin chnh sch tin t cho vay vi chi ph r. Nhng thng u nm 2012, xut khu ca an Mch phc hi mc ngang bng vi thi im trc khng hong 2008. Theo y ban Thng k an Mch (thng 2 nm 2012), thng d thng mi ca t nc ny t 14,3 t USD vo nm 2011. Hn na, 5 ngn hng ln nht ca

6 Nordic Council of Ministers (2011), Global Pressure Nordic Solutions. 7 Nordic Social Statistical Committee, sd.

nh gi bc u tc ng...

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an Mch vt qua cc t kim tra nghim ngt ca ngn hng EU p ng cc nhu cu huy ng vn cho ngn hng, m bo an ton hot ng trong bi cnh khng hong n cng lan rng EU. Tuy nhin, cc ngn hng nh ca an Mch vn gp nhiu kh khn trong khng hong. kch thch kinh t tng trng tr li, an Mch cng tung ra mt gi kch cu khim tn tr gi 10 t kroner (khong 2 t USD)8 trong nm 2012-2013 h tr u t c s h tng, y t v gio dc, khuyn khch u t vo cc ngnh cng ngh xanh. Ti Phn Lan, chnh ph thc hin rt nhiu chnh sch tin t v kinh t khc phc khng hong ti chnh, n nh kinh t. Cc bin php c chnh ph Phn Lan s dng trong thi gian qua l thc hin gi kch cu kinh t, iu tit mnh m ngnh ti chnh v ngn hng. Cn ti Thy in, chnh ph thc hin nhng chnh sch h tr rt ln cho doanh nghip va v nh to vic lm cho ngi lao ng. Theo s liu thng k Thy in, t nc ny vo nm 2009 c 70.000 doanh nghip va v nh, chim 90% trong tng s doanh nghip Thy in, thu ht ti 60% vic lm c nc. Doanh nghip va v nh ng gp ti 55% tng trng kinh t ca c nc v 65% trong tng u t x hi9. V vy, khuyn khch cc doanh nghip va v nh Thy in pht trin

8 Mu Xuequan (2012), Nordic states weather EU economic crisis, mull reforms to secure future growth, Xinhua, 27/2. 9 Mu Xuequan (2012), sd.

trong giai on khng hong gip t nc ny khc phc c nhng hu qu kinh t - x hi, gp phn gii quyt ASXH cho ngi lao ng. Thy in hy vng, cc doanh nghip ny c th gip nn kinh t thot khi suy thoi v nng cao kh nng t v, nu xy ra mt cuc khng hong trong nm 2012. Na Uy tng u t mt na ngun ti chnh t Qu Xut khu du m vo EU, nay Ngn hng Trung ng nc ny cho bit s ngng u t v hn ch cc giao dch ti chnh vi khu vc ny.

Nhn chung, Bc u, phc li x hi va l gnh nng, va l ngun lc, bi l ngun chi c bn cho pht trin c s h tng, gio dc, tr cp tht nghip v to sc cnh tranh cho nn kinh t. Nhng khng hong n cng chu u ang lm chm li s tng trng kinh t Bc u, cng vi s gi ha dn s khin ngn sch chi cho phc li x hi ngy cng tng, to p lc cho nn kinh t. Cc nc Bc u ang thc thi nhiu bin php gii quyt bi ton gnh nng phc li x hi v thch thc tng trng kinh t. Phn Lan tng tui ngh hu tng ngun cung lao ng, u t vo nn kinh t xanh v ci thin hiu qu khu vc cng. Ti Thy in, tui ngh hu b y li n 63 tui v thi gian ng gp vo qu hu bng c ko di thm. Ngy nay, Thy in l nc s mt trn th gii trong lnh vc to cng n vic lm cho ngi cao tui. Khu vc Nh nc Thy in cng phi chu mt s bin php tht lng buc bng qua nhng lut l nghim ngt hn v

Nghin cu Chu u - European studies review No9 (144).2012

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ngn sch. an Mch tin hnh ci cch ch phc li, tng thu v u t pht trin ngun nng lng thay th.

Vic khng tham gia khu vc Eurozone lm gim nguy c ly lan khng hong cho an Mch, Na Uy v Thy in. Hin nay, ba nc ny c xem l "thin ng an ton" i vi cc nh u t tri phiu chnh ph chu u, nu so snh gi tr tri phiu khng cao nhng n nh Bc u vi s lng tri phiu "d bay hi" cc th trng Nam u. Trong khi cc quc gia chu u ang phi u tranh ct gim ngn sch v tnh trng tng trng chm th phc hi tng trng kinh t ca cc nc Bc u cho thy nhng u im ca m hnh Bc u trong khng hong. H thng ASXH ton din Bc u thi gian qua l mt trong nhng nhn t gip khu vc ny khc phc c nhng kh khn ca nhng t khng hong kinh t nng n.

TI LIU THAM KHO

A. TING ANH

1. Anita Haataja, Meria Kauhanen and Jouko Natti (2011), Underemployment and part-time work in the Bc u Countries, Kela Research Department, Working Papers 31.

2. Asisp (2010), Annual National Report 2010, Denmark

3. Breidahl, Karen Nielsen (2008). Labour market integration policies in the Bc u Welfare States: Has the policy changed and what are the driving forces

behind? Paper presented at XV. NOPSA Conference, Troms, 6-9. Aug. 2008.

4. Brekke, K. A. and Kverndokk, S. (2009), Health inequality in Bc u welfare states - more inequality or the wrong measures?, Hero skrifter nr. 4. Oslo: Hero.

5. Christensen, Anna Meier (2009). The effect of institutions on the unemployment gap between immigrants and natives in 11 European countries. Aalborg: Department of Economics, Politics & Public Administration.

B. TING VIT

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