Dist_Prob

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

1/36

Año Hp(mm) m Tr=((n+1)/m)

1974 3.40 100.00 1.00 15.00

1975 52.00 80.00 2.00 7.50

1976 100.00 70.00 3.00 5.00

1977 70.00 70.00 4.00 3.75

1978 70.00 60.50 5.00 3.001979 50.10 52.00 6.00 2.50

1983 26.00 50.10 7.00 2.14

1985 20.20 42.70 8.00 1.88

1986 40.00 42.00 9.00 1.67

1987 60.50 40.00 10.00 1.50

1988 80.00 30.80 11.00 1.36

1989 30.80 26.00 12.00 1.25

1990 42.00 20.20 13.00 1.15

1991 42.70 3.40 14.00 1.07

49.12

0.02

57.28

EVENTO

T (años)

2

5

10

20

50

100

500

1000

10000

Hp(mm)Ordenado

µ=x=

λ=

((HpHpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

2/36

0.07 133.02 1090.54

0.13 98.97 360.05

0.20 79.06 82.05

0.27 64.93 25.74

0.33 53.97 42.700.40 45.01 48.87

0.47 37.44 160.34

0.53 30.88 139.76

0.60 25.09 285.86

0.67 19.92 403.33

0.73 15.24 242.26

0.80 10.96 226.17

0.87 7.03 173.47

0.93 3.39 0.00

DE DISEÑO

% (&&)

34.05

79.06

113.11

147.15

192.16

226.21

305.27

339.32

452.43

P(Hp≥HpTeorica

) HpTeorica

(mm) (Hp-HpTeorica

)2

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

3/36


1974 3.40 100.00 1.00 15.00

1975 52.00 80.00 2.00 7.50

1976 100.00 70.00 3.00 5.00

1977 70.00 70.00 4.00 3.75

1978 70.00 60.50 5.00 3.001979 50.10 52.00 6.00 2.50

1983 26.00 50.10 7.00 2.14

1985 20.20 42.70 8.00 1.88

1986 40.00 42.00 9.00 1.67

1987 60.50 40.00 10.00 1.50

1988 80.00 30.80 11.00 1.36

1989 30.80 26.00 12.00 1.25

1990 42.00 20.20 13.00 1.15

1991 42.70 3.40 14.00 1.07

49.12

25.61

13.35

3.68

21.31

T (años)

2

510

20

50

100

500

1000

10000

Hp(mm)Ordenado

µ=x=

sx=

α=

β=

((HpHpT!o"#$a) 2)0.5

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

4/36

v

0.07 0.93 2.33 1.50 91.57

0.13 0.87 2.01 1.11 77.24

0.20 0.80 1.79 0.84 68.28

0.27 0.73 1.63 0.62 61.53

0.33 0.67 1.48 0.43 55.990.40 0.60 1.35 0.25 51.18

0.47 0.53 1.23 0.08 46.84

0.53 0.47 1.12 0.08 42.83

0.60 0.40 1.01 0.25 39.00

0.67 0.33 0.90 0.43 35.27

0.73 0.27 0.79 0.62 31.54

0.80 0.20 0.67 0.83 27.66

0.87 0.13 0.53 1.08 23.44

0.93 0.07 0.37 1.43 18.37

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

' Hp(&&) T!o"#$a

0.5000 0.5000 1.18 0.00 44.80

0.2000 0.8000 1.79 0.84 68.280.1000 0.9000 2.15 1.28 83.31

0.0500 0.9500 2.45 1.65 97.26

0.0200 0.9800 2.80 2.05 114.72

0.0100 0.9900 3.03 2.33 127.46

0.0020 0.9980 3.53 2.88 156.04

0.0010 0.9990 3.72 3.09 168.07

0.0001 0.9999 4.29 3.72 207.33

P(Hp≥HpTeorica

) P(Hp≤HpTeorica

) UT

Hp(mm)Teorica

%(Hp≥HpT!o"#$a

) %(Hp≤HpT!o"#$a

) T

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

5/36

71.14

7.63

2.96

71.67

20.360.68

10.60

0.02

8.98

22.33

0.54

2.76

10.49

224.05

(Hp-HpTeorica

)2

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

6/36

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

7/36

Año Hp(mm) m Tr ((n+1)/m)

1974 3.40 100.00 1.00 15.00

1975 52.00 80.00 2.00 7.50

1976 100.00 70.00 3.00 5.00

1977 70.00 70.00 4.00 3.75

1978 70.00 60.50 5.00 3.001979 50.10 52.00 6.00 2.50

1983 26.00 50.10 7.00 2.14

1985 20.20 42.70 8.00 1.88

1986 40.00 42.00 9.00 1.67

1987 60.50 40.00 10.00 1.50

1988 80.00 30.80 11.00 1.36

1989 30.80 26.00 12.00 1.25

1990 42.00 20.20 13.00 1.15

1991 42.70 3.40 14.00 1.07

49.12

25.61

19.97

37.60

21.55

EVENTOS

T (años)

2

5

10

20

50

100

500

1000

10000

Hp(mm)Ordenado

µ=x=

sx=

α=

ν=

((HpHpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

8/36

0.07 0.93 90.98 81.30

0.13 0.87 76.42 12.84

0.20 0.80 67.55 6.02

0.27 0.73 60.97 81.50

0.33 0.67 55.62 23.800.40 0.60 51.01 0.98

0.47 0.53 46.87 10.45

0.53 0.47 43.02 0.10

0.60 0.40 39.34 7.06

0.67 0.33 35.72 18.32

0.73 0.27 32.03 1.51

0.80 0.20 28.10 4.39

0.87 0.13 23.61 11.63

0.93 0.07 17.71 204.68

DE DISEÑO

% (&&)

44.92

67.55

82.53

96.90

115.51

129.45

161.66

175.51

221.49

P(Hp≥HpTeorica

) P(Hp≤HpTeorica

) Hp(mm)Teorica

(Hp-HpTeorica

)2

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

9/36


1974 3.40 100.00 4.61 1 15.00

1975 52.00 80.00 4.38 2 7.50

1976 100.00 70.00 4.25 3 5.00

1977 70.00 70.00 4.25 4 3.75

1978 70.00 60.50 4.10 5 3.00

1979 50.10 52.00 3.95 6 2.50

1983 26.00 50.10 3.91 7 2.14

1985 20.20 42.70 3.75 8 1.88

1986 40.00 42.00 3.74 9 1.67

1987 60.50 40.00 3.69 10 1.50

1988 80.00 30.80 3.43 11 1.36

1989 30.80 26.00 3.26 12 1.25

1990 42.00 20.20 3.01 13 1.15

1991 42.70 3.40 1.22 14 1.07

3.68

0.83

50.74

T (años)

2

5

1020

50

100

500

1000

10000

Hp(mm)Ordenado

ln(Hp) (mm)Ordenado

*(µ)=*(x)=

*(sx)=

((HpHpT!o"#$a) 2)0.5

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

10/36

v

0.07 0.93 2.33 1.50 138.94

0.13 0.87 2.01 1.11 100.32

0.20 0.80 1.79 0.84 80.13

0.27 0.73 1.63 0.62 66.77

0.33 0.67 1.48 0.43 56.87

0.40 0.60 1.35 0.25 49.05

0.47 0.53 1.23 0.08 42.59

0.53 0.47 1.12 0.08 37.06

0.60 0.40 1.01 0.25 32.19

0.67 0.33 0.90 0.43 27.81

0.73 0.27 0.79 0.62 23.76

0.80 0.20 0.67 0.83 19.90

0.87 0.13 0.53 1.08 16.09

0.93 0.07 0.37 1.43 12.01

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

' Hp(&&) T!o"#$a

0.5000 0.5000 1.18 0.00 39.73

0.2000 0.8000 1.79 0.84 80.13

0.1000 0.9000 2.15 1.28 115.680.0500 0.9500 2.45 1.65 156.64

0.0200 0.9800 2.80 2.05 220.31

0.0100 0.9900 3.03 2.33 276.54

0.0020 0.9980 3.53 2.88 438.09

0.0010 0.9990 3.72 3.09 522.82

0.0001 0.9999 4.29 3.72 883.10

P(Hp≥HpTeorica

) P(Hp≤HpTeorica

) UT

Hp(mm)Teorica

%(Hp≥HpT!o"#$a

) %(Hp≤HpT!o"#$a

) T

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

11/36

1516.16

412.78

102.70

10.46

13.15

8.68

56.42

31.83

96.15

148.60

49.59

37.17

16.92

74.05

(Hp-HpTeorica

)2

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

12/36

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

13/36


1974 3.40 100.00 1 15.00

1975 52.00 80.00 2 7.50

1976 100.00 70.00 3 5.00

1977 70.00 70.00 4 3.75

1978 70.00 60.50 5 3.001979 50.10 52.00 6 2.50

1983 26.00 50.10 7 2.14

1985 20.20 42.70 8 1.88

1986 40.00 42.00 9 1.67

1987 60.50 40.00 10 1.50

1988 80.00 30.80 11 1.36

1989 30.80 26.00 12 1.25

1990 42.00 20.20 13 1.15

1991 42.70 3.40 14 1.07

49.12

25.61

0.22

2.82

82.58

183.58

17.32

T (años)

2

5

10

20

50

100

500

1000

10000

Hp(mm)Ordenado

µ=x=

sx=

γ =

α=

β=

x0=

((HpHpT!o"#$a) 2)0.5

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

14/36

v

0.07 0.93 2.33 1.50 88.68

0.13 0.87 2.01 1.11 77.73

0.20 0.80 1.79 0.84 70.34

0.27 0.73 1.63 0.62 64.45

0.33 0.67 1.48 0.43 59.350.40 0.60 1.35 0.25 54.70

0.47 0.53 1.23 0.08 50.32

0.53 0.47 1.12 0.08 46.06

0.60 0.40 1.01 0.25 41.81

0.67 0.33 0.90 0.43 37.43

0.73 0.27 0.79 0.62 32.79

0.80 0.20 0.67 0.83 27.66

0.87 0.13 0.53 1.08 21.59

0.93 0.07 0.37 1.43 13.43

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

' Hp(&&) T!o"#$a0.500 0.500 1.18 0.00 48.18

0.200 0.800 1.79 0.84 70.34

0.100 0.900 2.15 1.28 82.48

0.050 0.950 2.45 1.65 92.79

0.020 0.980 2.80 2.05 104.70

0.010 0.990 3.03 2.33 112.83

0.002 0.998 3.53 2.88 129.74

0.001 0.999 3.72 3.09 136.41

0.000 1.000 4.29 3.72 156.73

P(Hp≥HpTeorica

) P(Hp≤HpTeorica

) UT

Hp(mm)Teorica

%(Hp≥HpT!o"#$a) %(Hp≤HpT!o"#$a) T

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

15/36

128.12

5.17

0.12

30.80

1.337.31

0.05

11.30

0.04

6.59

3.97

2.74

1.92

100.66

(Hp-HpTeorica

)2

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

16/36

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

17/36

Año Hp(mm) m Tr ((n+1)/m)

1974 3.40 100.00 1.00 15.00

1975 52.00 80.00 2.00 7.50

1976 100.00 70.00 3.00 5.00

1977 70.00 70.00 4.00 3.75

1978 70.00 60.50 5.00 3.001979 50.10 52.00 6.00 2.50

1983 26.00 50.10 7.00 2.14

1985 20.20 42.70 8.00 1.88

1986 40.00 42.00 9.00 1.67

1987 60.50 40.00 10.00 1.50

1988 80.00 30.80 11.00 1.36

1989 30.80 26.00 12.00 1.25

1990 42.00 20.20 13.00 1.15

1991 42.70 3.40 14.00 1.07

49.12

0.51

695.66

17.91

$= 24.176

36.791

13.66

EVENTOS

T (años)

2

5

10

20

50

100

500

1000

10000

Hp(mm)Ordenado

µ=x=

Σx#+*=

Σ,#%#=

Σ,#2=

a=

((HpHpT!o"#$a)2)0.5

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

18/36

Xi XiPi

0.93 2.67 267.38 7.15 101.43

0.87 1.94 155.54 3.78 83.79

0.80 1.50 105.00 2.25 73.05

0.73 1.17 81.95 1.37 65.09

0.67 0.90 54.61 0.81 58.610.60 0.67 34.93 0.45 53.03

0.53 0.46 23.26 0.22 48.01

0.47 0.27 11.60 0.07 43.36

0.40 0.09 3.67 0.01 38.90

0.33 0.09 3.76 0.01 34.52

0.27 0.28 8.59 0.08 30.05

0.20 0.48 12.37 0.23 25.29

0.13 0.70 14.15 0.49 19.85

0.07 1.00 3.39 0.99 12.71

DE DISEÑO

% (&&)

45.65

73.05

91.19

108.60

131.12

148.00

187.01

203.78

259.46

P(Hp≤HpTeorica

) Xi2Hp(mm)Teorica

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

19/36

2.05 2.6737520915

14.39 1.944205697

9.32 1.4999399868

24.08 1.1706833376

3.55 0.90272045571.06 0.6717269921

4.35 0.464246379

0.43 0.2716249448

9.58 0.0874215718

30.06 0.0940478276

0.57 0.2789610345

0.51 0.4758849953

0.12 0.7005710655

86.61 0.996228893

(Hp-HpTeorica

)2

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

20/36

D#s-"#/$#* E""o" Expo*!*$#a 57.28

a&&a 2 pa"&!-"os 21.31/&! 21.55

o*o"&a 50.74%!a"so* III 17.32

Nas 13.66

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

21/36

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.000.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

eriodo de retorno $%r&

'p $mm&

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

22/36

ncial

l

studiados

al

n !!!

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

23/36

EVENTOS DE DISEÑO EVENTOS DE DISEÑO

T (años) % (&&) T (años) % (&&)

2 45.65 2 51.59

5 73.05 5 82.55

10 91.19 10 103.05

20 108.60 20 122.71

50 131.12 50 148.17100 148.00 100 167.24

500 187.01 500 211.32

1000 203.78 1000 230.27

10000 259.46 10000 293.18

Duraci(n) en #oras

1 2 * 4 + 6

0.* 0.*, 0.46 0.+2 0.+- 0.61

Enero *., "mero medio de d/

ebrero *.4

3aro *.1

5bril 2.*

3ao +.4

7unio 10

7ulio 1*.4

5gosto 11.8

eptiembre 1*.69ctubre 10.6

"oiembre 4.-

Diciembre 4.1

-.1, 0.284*-*--

+1.+,mm

14.6-mm

%r *0 60 ,0 120 1+0+ 14.8* 1,.4- 22.+8 24.,, 26.,8

10 1-.++ 2*.04 26.-2 2,.+- *1.,*

20 20.26 26.61 *0.86 *4.1+ *6.8-

$1#ora

:2

$1#ora

:24#oras

&2 aos

24#rs

%r2 aos

1#r

%r2 aos

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

24/36

%r *0 60 ,0 120 1+0

+ 2,.6+ 1,.4- 1+.0+ 12.4, 10.-,

10 *+.0, 2*.04 1-.81 14.-, 12.--20 40.+* 26.61 20.+- 1-.08 14.-+

0 100 2000.00

+.00

10.00

1+.00

20.00

2+.00

*0.00

*+.00

40.00

4+.00

!ntensidad $mm:#r&

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

25/36

%r + 10 20

t $min& ! $mm:#r& ! $mm:#r& ! $mm:#r&

*0 2,.6+ *+.0, 40.+*

60 1,.4- 2*.04 26.61

,0 1+.0+ 1-.81 20.+-

120 12.4, 14.-, 1-.081+0 10.-, 12.-- 14.-+

180 ,.+6 11.*2 1*.0-

210 8.6* 10.21 11.-,

t $min& ! $mm:#r& $mm&

*0 2,.6+ 14.8* 14.8* 1.+1 0.00

60 1,.4- 1,.4- 4.64 1.,, 0.00,0 1+.0+ 22.+8 *.11 *.11 0.00

120 12.4, 24.,, 2.41 14.8* 1.8*

1+0 10.-, 26.,8 1.,, 4.64 0.00

180 ,.+6 28.6, 1.-1 2.41 0.00

210 8.6* *0.20 1.+1 1.-1 0.00

t $min& ! $mm:#r& $mm& $cm& orden

*0 *+.0, 1-.++ 1-.++ 1.-, 0.18

60 2*.04 2*.04 +.4, 2.*6 0.24

,0 1-.81 26.-2 *.68 *.68 0.*-

120 14.-, 2,.+- 2.8+ 1-.++ 1.-+

1+0 12.-- *1.,* 2.*6 +.4, 0.++

180 11.*2 **.,+ 2.02 2.8+ 0.28

210 10.21 *+.-4 1.-, 2.02 0.20

∆ $mm& $mm&

ordene $mm&

orden

∆ $mm& $mm&

orden

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

26/36

t $min& ! $mm:#r& $mm& $cm& orden

*0 40.+* 20.26 20.26 2.06 0.21

60 26.61 26.61 6.*4 2.-2 0.2-

,0 20.+- *0.86 4.2+ 4.2+ 0.4*

120 1-.08 *4.1+ *.2, 20.26 2.0*

1+0 14.-+ *6.8- 2.-2 6.*4 0.6*180 1*.0- *,.21 2.*4 *.2, 0.**

210 11.-, 41.2- 2.06 2.*4 0.2*

∆ $mm& $mm&

orden

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

27/36

8 12 18 24

0.68 0.8 0.,1 1

s con lluia por ao 1 8 16

0.2 0.* 0.4

180 210 240 *00 *60 42028.6, *0.20 *1.++ **.,2 *+.,6 *-.-+

**.,+ *+.-4 *-.*4 40.14 42.++ 44.6-

*,.21 41.2- 4*.12 46.*6 4,.14 +1.+,

#oras&

2 aos

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

28/36

180 210 240 *00 *60 420

,.+6 8.6* -.8, 6.-8 +.,, +.*,

11.*2 10.21 ,.** 8.0* -.0, 6.*81*.0- 11.-, 10.-8 ,.2- 8.1, -.*-

*00 400 +00 600 -00

Duraci(n $min&

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

29/36

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

30/36

0.0- 0.6+

0.0+ 0.4+

0.01 0.14

0.4* 4.*1

0.00 0.000.0* 0.*1

0.06 0.+-

e $cm&orden

e $mm&orden

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

31/36

24

0.+

480 +60 620 680*,.*6 41.2, 42.60 4*.82

46.+8 48.86 +0.41 +1.86

+*.-, +6.4* +8.22 +,.8,

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

32/36

480 +60 620 680

4.,2 4.42 4.12 *.8-

+.82 +.2* 4.88 4.+86.-2 6.0+ +.6* +.28

800

%; 2 aos

%r + 5os

%r 10 5os

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

33/36

120 1+0 180 210

1

14.8*

4.64

2.411.-1

+ aos

t $min&

,0 120 1+0 180 210

*.68

1-.++

+.4,

2.8+ 2.02

10 aos

t $min&

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

34/36

*0 60 ,0 120 1+0 180 2100.00

+.00

10.00

1+.00

20.00

2+.00

2.06 2.-24.2+

20.26

6.*4

*.2,2.*4

r a os

t $min&

$mm&

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

35/36

%ipo de suelo

8/18/2019 Dist_Prob

36/36

Epilptico

;ndico

%ipo de suelo

Documents

Dist_Prob