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7/30/2019 Finolex Cable 4Q FY 2013
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy)Total operating income 632 534 18.3 605 4.5EBITDA 67 43 55.0 58 14.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 8.0 249bp 9.6 91bp
Adj. PAT 39 24 62.5 45 (12.6)Source: Company, Angel Research
Finolex Cables Ltd (FCL) reported a mixed set of numbers for 4QFY2013. The
top-line reported a flat yoy growth of 4.5% to`632cr, in line with our estimate of
`629cr. The EBITDA for the quarter grew by 14.4% yoy to `67cr while the
EBITDA margin expanded by 91bp yoy to 10.5%. Expansion was mainly due to
reduction in raw material cost and other expenses as a percentage of sales.
However, the net profit declined by 12.6% yoy to `39cr, owing to a tax expense of
16% (on PBT), which was absent in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
Growth in user industries to drive growth: FCL serves varied user industries,
considering the wide usage of cables. With customers increasingly demanding
high-quality and branded wires, FCL is poised to grow. The company, with
its wide distribution reach and penetration in the market, is well poised to
meet increase in demand. Further, we expect the companys initiatives
like- 1) increase in advertisement spends 2) setting up of a solar power plant for
captive consumption, and 3) reduction in sale of copper rods to third party, to
boost top-line and enhance profitability going forward.
Outlook and valuation:We expect the companys sales to post a 13.0% CAGR
over FY201315E to`2,899cr, and EBITDA to register a CAGR of 11.6% over the
same period with margin at 9.8% in FY2015E. However, PAT is expected to post a
moderate CAGR of 9.0% over the same period owing to end of 100% tax
exemption on Roorkee plant production (30% from FY2014E). At the currentmarket price, FCL is available at an attractive valuation of 4.4x PE for FY2015E. Aswe rollover to FY2015E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with arevised target price of `68 based on a target PE of 6x FY2015E earnings.Key financialsY/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 2,036 2,064 2,270 2,563 2,899% chg 25.8 1.4 10.0 12.9 13.1
Net Profit 87 98 145 154 173% chg 50.7 13.0 47.9 6.0 12.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 7.5 8.5 10.1 9.8 9.8FDEPS (`) 5.7 6.4 9.5 10.1 11.3P/E (x) 8.8 7.8 5.3 5.0 4.4
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6
RoE (%) 12.1 12.3 15.7 14.5 14.0RoCE (%) 20.9 18.7 22.5 22.2 23.1
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.6 3.6 2.5 2.3 1.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `50
Target Price `68
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (202.0)
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 35.7MF / Banks / Indian Fls 29.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.9
Indian Public / Others 30.2
Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex (0.2) 14.1 13.5
Finolex (13.0) 49.2 (7.6)
Nifty 5,999
Reuters Code FNXC.BO
FNXC.IN
Avg. Daily Volume 87,566
Face Value (`) 2
BSE Sensex 19,736
52 Week High / Low 64 / 32
Cables-Power
Market Cap (`cr) 767
Beta 0.6
Twinkle Gosar+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6848
Finolex CablesPerformance Highlights
4QFY2013 Result update | Power Cables
May 2, 2013
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 2
Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance highlightsY/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal operating income 632.1 534.3 18.3 604.8 4.5 2,270.1 2,063.9 10.0Net raw material 465.9 393.2 18.5 453.1 2.8 1,688.6 1,568.5 7.7(% of Sales) 73.7 73.6 74.9 74.4 76.0
Employee cost 25.7 20.1 28.2 18.5 38.8 84.6 69.5 21.7
(% of Sales) 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.7 3.4
Other Expenses 74.0 78.1 (5.3) 75.0 (1.3) 268.1 251.3 6.7
(% of Sales) 11.7 14.6 12.4 11.8 12.2
Total expenditure 565.6 491.3 15.1 546.5 3.5 2,041.3 1,889.2 8.1EBITDA 66.6 42.9 55.0 58.2 14.4 228.8 174.8 30.9EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 8.0 249bp 9.6 91bp 10.1 8.5 161bp
Interest 4.2 2.6 59.1 7.5 (43.7) 12.6 26.1 (51.7)
Depreciation 14.6 10.8 35.8 7.1 104.5 46.6 39.5 18.1
Other income 6.6 1.6 317.7 9.4 (29.5) 24.2 36.4 (33.6)
PBT (excl. exceptional items) 54.4 31.1 74.6 53.0 2.6 193.8 145.6 33.1Exceptional items 8.0 2.3 10.1 23.0 36.4PBT (incl. exceptional items) 46.4 28.8 60.9 42.9 8.2 170.8 109.3 56.3(% of Sales) 7.3 5.4 7.1 7.5 5.3
Tax 7.4 4.8 53.3 (1.7) (541.7) 25.5 11.1 130.5
(% of PBT) 16.0 16.8 (3.9) 15.0 10.1
Adjusted PAT 39.0 24.0 62.5 44.6 (12.6) 145.2 98.2 47.9PATM (%) 6.2 4.5 7.4 6.4 4.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:Actual v/s EstimatesActual v/s Angel's Estimates Actual (` cr) Estimate (` cr) % variationTotal Income (` cr) 632 629 0.4EBITDA (`cr) 67 52 27.8EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 8.3 226bp
Adjusted PAT (` cr) 39 31 27.6Source: Company, Angel Research
For 4QFY2013, FCL reported a mixed set of numbers. The top-line reported a flat
yoy growth of 4.5% to `632cr, in line with our estimate of `629cr. The EBITDA
grew by 14.4% yoy to `67cr, better than our estimate of `52cr. Lower copper
prices during the quarter, resulted in a reduction in raw material cost as a
percentage of sales by 122bp. This, along with 222bp yoy lower other expenses as
a percentage of sales, aided the EBITDA margin to expand by 91bp yoy to 10.5%.
However, the net profit for the company declined by 12.6% yoy to `39cr, owing to
tax expense of 16% of PBT, which was absent in the corresponding quarter of the
previous year.
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 4
Investment arguments
Capex plans to complement rising demand
FCL has its manufacturing facilities located at Pune, Goa and Roorkee. Excluding
the older plants, the new plants with updated technology have been operating
optimally at ~85-90% capacity utilisation. With customers increasingly demanding
high-quality and branded wires, FCL is poised to grow. The company, with its wide
distribution reach and penetration in the market, is well poised to meet an increase
in demand. The company has planned a total capex of ~`100cr over the next 18
months (~`40-50cr in FY2013E) to expand the Roorkee plant and double its
current capacity so as to support the rising demand. The same will contribute to
top-line growth for the company.
Product portfolio additions to facilitate growth & widen reach
FCL has a substantial market share of ~15-16% in both, electrical andtelecommunication cables segments. The company has a wide range of products
in its offering, ranging within 1.1kv to 66kv. Moreover, the company launched a
new range of speaker wires in the communication cables segment and latest
versions of T5 tube lights and fittings were launched in the lighting division.
Additions in the product portfolio by the company on the back of extensive
research and development are expected to facilitate growth in top-line for the
company going forward.
Strong growth in user industry to drive top-line
FCL serves varied user industries considering the wide usage of cables due to
electrification. The contribution from the construction sector is the largest while
other segments include industrial, automotive, power and agriculture.
The electrical cables segment contributes ~83% to the total revenue. Of this ~60%
revenue comes in from channel sales and 40% through institutional sales. On the
other hand, the telecommunication cables segment, which accounts for ~6-7% of
the top-line, derives its revenues majorly from institutional sales. The balanced
revenue mix in regards to user industry as well as institutional sales reduces the
concentration risk.Reducing third party sale of copper rods to boost margins
The copper rods segment was initially set up as backward integration for the
cables segment. The excess production after captive consumption is sold off to
third parties at market price. However, owing to thin and declining margins from
third party transactions, FCL is gradually reducing its exposure in the segment. The
contribution of the segment to the top-line has decreased from 21% in FY2010 to
~8% currently. This trend is expected to continue, thereby improving the overall
EBIT margin of the company.
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 5
Financials
Exhibit 6:Key AssumptionsParticulars (%) FY2014E FY2015ETotal Sales Growth 12.9 13.1
Finished ProductsVolume growthElectrical cables 11.0 11.0
Telephone Cables-Jelly Filled 5.0 5.0
Optical Fibre Cables 5.0 5.0
Continuous Cast Copper Rod (10.0) (10.0)
Realisation growthElectrical cables 3.0 3.0
Telephone Cables-Jelly Filled 5.0 5.0
Optical Fibre Cables 5.0 5.0Continuous Cast Copper Rod - -
Raw MaterialVolume growth 9.5 9.5
Realisation growth 3.6 3.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:Revised EstimatesY/E March Earlier estimates Revised estimates % changeFY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales (`cr) 2,559 2,899 2,563 2,899 0.2 0.0EBITDA Margin (%) 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 (4.5) 0.0
EPS (`) 10 11 10 11 2.9 0.0Source: Angel Research
Net sales to grow at CAGR of 13.0% over FY2013-15E
Owing to strong growth in varied user industries, additions in the product portfolio,
and strategic alliances entered into by the company, the top-line is expected to
post a CAGR of 13.0% over FY2013-15E to`2,899cr in FY2015E.
Exhibit 8:User industry growth to drive volumes
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9:Segmental contribution
Source: Company, Angel Research
1,6
19
2,0
36
2,0
64
2,2
70
2,5
63
2,8
99
20.7
25.81.4
10.012.9
13.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(%)
(`cr)
Net sales (LHS) Net sales growth ( RHS)
1,109
1,407
1,771
2,053
2,347
2,683
176 204 207 254280 308362
511
205 105 94 85
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(`cr)
Electrical cable s Communication CCC rods
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 6
Revenue from the electrical cables segment is assumed to grow at a CAGR of
14.3% while the communication cables segment (telephone jelly cables and optic
fibre cables) is expected to post a CAGR of 10.3% over FY2013-15E. CCC rods
(net of inter segmental) contribution is however expected to dip at a CAGR of10.0% over the same period.
EBITDA to post CAGR of 11.6% over FY2013-15E
FCLs EBITDA, on back of healthy top-line growth and improved operational
efficiency, is expected to post a CAGR of 11.6% over FY2013-15E. EBITDA is to
rise from`229cr in FY2013 to `285cr in FY2015E. Despite reduced contribution
from low margin copper rods, owing to volatility in copper prices, we expect
EBITDA margins to normalize at 9.8% in FY2014E and FY2015E.
Exhibit 10:EBITDA margin to normalise
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:PAT and PAT growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
End of tax exemption to restrict PAT CAGR at 9.0%
A robust top-line coupled with a healthy EBITDA is expected to aid PAT CAGR of
9.0% over FY2013-15E. The tax rate is expected to increase from 10.1% in
FY2012 to 15.0% in FY2013 and 28.0% in FY2014E and FY2015E owing to end
of 100% tax exemption on the Roorkee plant (30% exemption from FY2014E). As a
result, despite closure of derivative contracts, the bottom-line is expected to rise
moderately from`145cr in FY2013 to`178cr in FY2014E.
195 173 175 229 250 285
5.2 7.58.5
10.1 9.8
9.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(%)
(`cr)
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
58 87 98 145 154 173
(262.4)
50.7
13.0
47.9
6.0 12.1
(300)
(250)
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
(%)
(`cr)
PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 7
Concerns
Competition from the un-organized sector is a concern since their productsare relatively cheaper, thus having a potential of cannibalizing into FCLs
volumes.
Fluctuation in the price of copper which is an essential raw material (~86% oftotal raw material) is a key concern as it would directly impact operational
efficiency. Although prices have fallen recently, but the volatility in commodity
market persists.
Competition
The cables industry, both electrical and tele-communication, is highly competitive,
with co-existence of both - organized and unorganized players. FCL has a market
share of ~15-20% each in the electrical and telecommunication cables segments.
Exhibit 12:Relative ValuationTTM- Mar13 Sales(` cr) OPM(%) PAT(` cr) EPS(`) ROIC(%) PE(x) PBV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) EV/Sales(x)FCL* 2,270 9.0 165 10.8 22 4.7 0.9 3.0 0.3
Havells India ^ 4,104 13.0 353 28.3 48 24.0 4.8 14.5 1.9
KEI Inds^ 1,740 10.3 31 4.4 24 2.6 0.3 2.8 0.3
Source: Capital Line, Angel Research, * TTM ending Mar13, ^TTM ending Dec12
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 8
Outlook and Valuation
We remain positive on the companys prospects going ahead, given the strong
growth in user industries, which shows no sign of abating. Strong growth in user
industries, additions in product portfolio, and strategic alliances are all to aid the
company in posting a CAGR of 13.0% in the top-line over FY2013-15E to
`2,899cr in FY2015E. The EBITDA is expected to post a CAGR of 11.6% to `285cr
while margins are to stabilize at 9.8% in FY2014E and FY2015E. PAT growth,
owing to end of tax exemption is expected to be restricted to a CAGR 9.0% of over
FY2013-15E to `173cr in FY2015E. At the current market price, the stock isavailable at a cheap valuation of 4.4x PE for FY2015E. As we rollover to FY2015E,we continue to maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised targetprice of `68 based on target PE of 6x FY2015E earnings.Exhibit 13:One-year forward PE
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
(`)
Price 4.0x 7.5x 11.0x 14.5x
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 9
About the company
FCL is Indias largest manufacturer of electrical and communication cables. The
company mainly operates through 4 divisions; 1) Electrical Cables (80%)
2) Communication cables (6.5%) 3) Continuous Cast Copper rods (9.5%) and
4) Others (4%)- comprising PVC sheets, switches and compact fluorescent
lamps manufactured through its facilities set up at Roorkee, Goa, and Pune
(at Pimpri, Urse).
Exhibit 14:Segments detail
Source: Company
Exhibit 15:Applications of different types of cablesCables ApplicationsElectrical CablesLDEC
Electrification in residential, commercial and industrialestablishments
Power Cables Underground usage, main power supply
Communication cablesCopper based LAN- high speed networks
Coaxial- content input to TV sets
PE Insulated to connect telephone instruments
V-Sat- Dish to base station
Optic Fibre/ glassbased
Maximum bandwidth and high speed
Trunk cables
Distribution by telecom companies
Multi service organisation and service provider
Traditional JFTC Laid underground 4 connecting land line telephone to exchanges
PVC Sheets Corrugated PVC SheetsRigid PVC Sheets
Source: Company, Angel Research
Segments
Electrical Cables
LDEC
Power Cables
Communication
Cables
Copper Based
Optic Fibre/Glass based
TraditionalJFTC's
Others
PVC
Switches
CompactFluoroscent
Lamps
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 10
Profit and loss statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EGross sales 2,186 2,182 2,411 2,721 3,076Less: Excise duty 151 118 141 158 177Net Sales 2,036 2,064 2,270 2,563 2,899% chg 25.8 1.4 10.0 12.9 13.1
Net Raw Materials 1,575 1,568 1,689 1,914 2,163
% chg 33.6 (0.4) 7.7 13.4 13.0
Personnel 65 69 85 95 108
% chg 9.3 7.3 21.7 12.9 13.1
Other Mfg costs 82 84 113 127 144
% chg 14.7 2.6 33.2 12.9 13.1
Other 140 167 156 176 199
% chg 23.2 18.8 (6.7) 12.9 13.1
Total Expenditure 1,862 1,889 2,041 2,312 2,614
EBITDA 173 175 229 250 285% chg (10.9) 0.8 30.9 9.5 13.9
EBITDA Margin 7.5 8.5 10.1 9.8 9.8
Depreciation& Amort. 39 39 47 48 51
EBIT 135 135 182 202 234% chg (14.5) 0.5 34.7 11.1 15.5
(% of Net Sales) 6.6 6.6 8.0 7.9 8.1
Interest & other Charges 19 26 13 17 16
Other Income 26 36 24 31 24
(% of Net Sales) 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.8Recurring PBT 116 109 170 185 218% chg (16.8) (5.5) 55.3 9 18
Exceptional Expense/(Inc.) 34 36 23 - -
PBT (reported) 107 109 171 216 242Tax 20 11 26 62 69
(% of PBT) 19.0 10.1 15.0 28.0 28.0
PAT (reported) 87 98 145 154 173ADJ. PAT 87 98 145 154 173% chg 50.7 13.0 47.9 6.0 12.1
(% of Net Sales) 4.3 4.8 6.4 6.0 6.0
Basic EPS (`) 5.7 6.4 9.5 10.1 11.3Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 5.7 6.4 9.5 10.1 11.3% chg 50.7 13.0 47.9 6.0 12.1
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 11
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 31 31 31 31 31Preference Capital - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 687 770 894 1,033 1,206
Shareholders Funds 717 800 924 1,064 1,237Total Loans 126 155 162 151 140
Other Long term liability 54 35 54 22 9
Net Deferred tax liability 31 33 34 22 14
Total Liabilities 928 1,022 1,175 1,259 1,399APPLICATION OF FUNDS - - - - -Gross Block 826 871 937 993 1,072
Less: Acc. Depreciation 422 442 489 537 588
Net Block 403 429 448 456 484Capital Work-in-Progress 19 12 - - -
Goodwill - - - - -
Long term Loans & Adv. 14 4 17 17 17
Other non-current assets 245 237 324 331 364
Investments - - 19 19 19Current Assets 538 534 596 649 756
Cash 21 49 40 18 24
Loans & Advances 106 90 77 115 145
Other 411 395 479 516 588
Inventory 281 281 330 375 428
Debtors 130 114 150 141 159
Other current assets - - 0.0 0.0 0.0
Current liabilities 291 194 229 213 240
Net Current Assets 247 340 368 436 516Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - -
Total Assets 928 1,022 1,175 1,259 1,399
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
May 2, 2013 12
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 107 109 171 216 242
Depreciation 39 39 47 48 51(Inc.)/ Dec. in Working Capital (26) (36) (24) (31) (24)
Less: Other income (40) (65) (37) (91) (73)
Direct taxes paid (20) (11) (26) (62) (69)
Cash Flow from Operations 59 36 131 80 127(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (13) (39) (72) (56) (79)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 21 18 (100) (6) (33)
Other income 26 36 24 31 24
Cash Flow from Investing 34 16 (148) (32) (88)Issue of Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (96) 11 29 (56) (32)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (11) (12) (14) (14) 0
Others (2) (23) (7.2) - -
Cash Flow from Financing (109) (24) 8 (70) (32)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (16) 28 (9) (22) 6
Opening Cash balances 37 21 49 40 18Closing Cash balances 21 49 40 18 24
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Finolex Cables | 4QFY2013 Result update
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Key ratios
Y/E March FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 8.8 7.8 5.3 5.0 4.4P/CEPS 6.1 5.6 4.0 3.8 3.4
P/BV 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6
Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 -
EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
EV/EBITDA 3.6 3.6 2.5 2.3 1.8
EV / Total Assets 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 25.0 6.4 9.5 10.1 11.3
EPS (fully diluted) 25.0 6.4 9.5 10.1 11.3
Cash EPS 28.2 9.0 12.5 13.2 14.6
DPS 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Book Value 46.9 52.3 60.4 69.6 80.9
Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 6.6 6.6 8.0 7.9 8.1
Tax retention ratio 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
ROIC (Post-tax) 17.0 16.8 19.1 16.0 16.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 12.3 15.2 6.6 8.2 8.2
Leverage (x) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Operating ROE 16.0 16.5 16.4 14.6 15.0
Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 14.5 13.2 15.5 16.1 16.7
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 20.9 18.7 22.5 22.2 23.1
ROE 12.1 12.3 15.7 14.5 14.0
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7
Inventory / Sales (days) 45 50 49 47 47
Receivables (days) 18 16 16 16 16
Payables (days) 47 47 47 47 47
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 37 37 53 60 62
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
Net debt to EBITDA (0.8) (0.8) (0.9) (0.8) (0.9)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int.) 7.0 5.2 14.5 11.8 14.6
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