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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net Sales 1,541 1,454 6.0 1,464 5.3EBITDA 204 213 (3.9) 165 24.2

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.3 14.6 (136)bp 11.2 202bp

Adj. PAT 146 143 2.8 104 40.7Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2013, Exide Industries (EXID) operating performance was slightly aheadof our estimates, led by a sharp expansion in EBITDA margins on a sequentialbasis driven by price hikes (~10%) carried out in 2HFY2013. The top-line growththough was restricted due to the slowdown in the four-wheeler (4W) and

two-wheeler (2W) OEM segments. EXID has managed to regain 8-10% marketshare in the 4W replacement battery segment in FY2013 largely at the expense ofprofitability as the company refrained from passing on the cost increases to theconsumers. However, the Management has indicated that it will focus onimproving profitability going ahead through price increases and cost reductioninitiatives. We expect EBITDA margins to improve ~130bp in FY2014 as the fullbenefits of price hikes taken in 3QFY2013 will accrue in FY2014. Further,softening of lead prices coupled with cost reduction initiatives will also aid marginexpansion, in our view. As a result, we expect earnings to register a CAGR of~22% over the same period. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.Better-than-expected 4QFY2013 performance: EXIDs top-line grew broadlyin-line with our estimates and stood at `1,541cr (6% yoy and 5.3% qoq) led by

continued traction in the 4W replacement battery segment. However, sluggishdemand in the 4W and 2W OEM battery segments restricted the growth in thetop-line. The growth in the industrial battery segment too remained healthy led bypick-up in the home UPS battery segment. The EBITDA margin improved by asharp 202bp qoq to 13.3%, slightly ahead of our estimates of 12.5%, driven byprice hikes carried out in 3QFY2013. The other expenditure witnessed a declineof 7% qoq and amounted to 13.8% of sales (down 190bp sequentially).Consequently, the net profit surged 40.7% qoq (2.8% yoy) to `146cr as againstour estimates of `126cr. The net profit also benefitted from a sharp jump of148.8% qoq (105.9% yoy) in other income to `30cr.

Outlook and valuation: At `136, the stock is trading at 14.9x FY2015E earnings.We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP based target priceof `150. We value the core battery business of the company at 15x FY2015Eearnings at `137/ share. We value EXIDs 100% stake in ING Vysya LifeInsurance at `13/ share (at the deal value).

Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 5,110 6,072 7,053 8,061% chg 12.4 18.8 16.1 14.3

Net Profit 461 523 666 776% chg (27.1) 13.4 27.3 16.6

EBITDA (%) 13.4 12.9 14.2 14.5

EPS (`) 5.4 6.2 7.8 9.1P/E (x) 25.1 22.1 17.4 14.9

P/BV (x) 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.5

RoE (%) 15.9 16.1 18.1 18.2

RoCE (%) 19.3 19.9 22.9 23.4

EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 14.6 12.6 9.5 7.9

Source: Company, Angel Research

ACCUMULATECMP `136

Target Price `150

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

(76)

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 46.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 18.1

Indian Public / Others 10.5

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (1.0) 14.1 15.2

Exide Industries 11.2 11.7 13.7

EXID@IN

11,564

0.5

166/113

155,360

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

1

20,027

5,944

EXID.BO

Auto Ancillary

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Net Debt (`cr)

Yaresh Kothari022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844

[email protected]

Exide IndustriesPerformance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Auto Ancillary

May 3, 2013

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Exide Industries | 4QFY2013 Result Update

May 3, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:Quarterly financial performance (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 1,541 1,454 6.0 1,464 5.3 6,077 5,114 18.8Consumption of RM 1,030 973 5.9 983 4.8 4,024 3,429 17.4(% of Sales) 66.8 66.9 67.1 66.2 67.1

Staff Costs 90 75 20.7 85 5.4 349 286 22.0

(% of Sales) 5.8 5.1 5.8 5.7 5.6

Purchases of TG 4 1 298.0 2 122.9 15 7 98.9

(% of Sales) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1

Other Expenses 213 193 10.2 229 (7.1) 899 704 27.8

(% of Sales) 13.8 13.3 15.7 14.8 13.8

Total Expenditure 1,337 1,241 7.7 1,299 2.9 5,287 4,426 19.5Operating Profit 204 213 (3.9) 165 24.2 790 687 14.9OPM (%) 13.3 14.6 11.2 13.0 13.4

Interest 1 1 (22.0) 1 (25.7) 4 5 (21.3)

Depreciation 29 27 5.5 29 (0.5) 113 101 12.7

Other Income 30 15 105.9 12 148.8 70 64 10.5

PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 205 199 3.1 147 39.8 742 645 15.1Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - - - - -

PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 205 199 3.1 147 39.8 742 645 15.1(% of Sales) 13.3 13.7 10.0 12.2 12.6

Provision for Taxation 59 57 3.9 43 37.6 220 184 19.3

(% of PBT) 28.7 28.4 29.1 29.6 28.5

Reported PAT 146 143 2.8 104 40.7 523 461 13.4Adj PAT 146 143 2.8 104 40.7 523 461 13.4

Adj. PATM 9.5 9.8 7.1 8.6 9.0

Equity capital (cr) 85.0 85.0 0.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 0.0

Reported EPS (`) 1.7 1.7 2.8 1.2 40.7 6.2 5.4 13.4Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimatesY/E March (` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net Sales 1,541 1,552 (0.7)EBITDA 204 193 5.8

EBITDA margin (%) 13.3 12.5 81bp

Adj. PAT 146 126 16.4Source: Company, Angel Research

Top-line growth broadly in-line with estimates: For 4QFY2013, EXIDs top-linegrew broadly in-line with our estimates and stood at `1,541cr (6% yoy and 5.3%

qoq) led by continued traction in the 4W replacement battery segment. However,

sluggish demand in the 4W and 2W OEM battery segments restricted further

growth in the top-line. The growth in the industrial battery segment too remained

healthy led by pick-up in the home UPS battery segment.

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Exhibit 3:Lower-than-expected growth in top-line


Operating margin surprises positively: On the operating front, EBITDA marginsimproved sharply by 202bp qoq to 13.3%, which was slightly ahead of our

estimate of 12.5%. The margin expansion was driven by price increases (~5% in

October 2013 and ~5% in January 2013) carried out by the company in

2HFY2013. The other expenditure witnessed a decline of 7% qoq and amounted to

13.8% of sales (down 190bp sequentially). Further, the raw-material and staff cost

as a percentage of sales remained stable on a sequential basis in 4QFY2013. On

a yoy basis, EBITDA margins declined 136bp as employee expenditure and other

expenditure witnessed an increase of 20.7% and 10.2% yoy respectively. We

believe that other expenditure for the company has increased largely due to

increase in power costs and also due to increase in distribution expenses.

Exhibit 4:Average lead price trend


Exhibit 5:Operating performance deteriorates sharply


Net profit beats estimates: Led by a strong operating performance, net profitsurged 40.7% qoq (2.8% yoy) to `146cr as against our estimate of `126cr. The net

profit also benefitted from a sharp jump of 148.8% qoq (105.9% yoy) in other

income to `30cr.

1,2

48

1,2

48

1,1

73

1,2

50

1,4

54

1,5

54

1,5

21

1,4

64

1,5

41

21.2

8.3

4.0

19.016.5

24.5

29.7

17.1

6.0

0.0

5.0

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35.0

0

200

400

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1,000

1,200

1,4001,600

1,800

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%)(`cr) Net sales (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

0

50,000100,000

150,000

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0

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9

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0

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1

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2

Dec-1

2

(tonne)(US $/tonne) Lead inventory ( RHS) Lead prices ( LHS)

18.7 17.8

7.713.2 14.6

15.012.4 11.2

13.3

62.8 63.971.2

67.4 66.9 65.2 66.4 67.2 67.1

0.0

10.0

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30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

1QFY13

2QFY13

3QFY13

4QFY13

(%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales

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Exhibit 6:Bottom-line down 13.4% sequentially


164

163

51

104

143

152

120

104

146

13.1 13.1

4.4

8.39.8 9.8

7.97.1

9.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.014.0

16.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140160

180

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

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4QFY13

(%)(`cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)

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Investment arguments

Demand scenario for automotive and industrial batteries to remain positive inthe long run: We expect growth traction in the automotive battery segment tocontinue in the long term, driven by OEM sales and a steady increase of

10-12% in the auto replacement segment, given that average battery life is

3-4 years. Further, revival in demand for telecom and UPS batteries is also

likely to sustain industrial battery demand going ahead. However, due to the

prevailing slowdown in economic activity, higher interest rates and increase in

fuel prices; consumer sentiments remain dampened, which could potentially

lead to a sluggish growth in the 4W as well as 2W OEM battery segments in

the near term.

Captive sourcing reduces impact of lead price volatility: EXID acquired TandonMetals (FY2008) and Leadage Alloys (51% in FY2009 and 49% in 2QFY2011)

to recycle lead and lessen the vulnerability of rising lead prices. This reducedthe company's dependence on imported lead in FY2011 to 28-30% (~32% in

FY2010). Total lead supplied by the captive smelter increased to 45-50% in

FY2012. EXID has benefitted from its captive sourcing strategy, as lead

sourcing from captive smelters is 10-12% cheaper compared to market rates.

Going forward, EXID plans to increase sourcing from its smelters to ~70% by

FY2014. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that for every 10% increase in

sourcing from captive smelters, the companys EBITDA margin expands by

~50bp (assuming stable lead prices).

Capacity expansion to increase volume growth: EXID has been operating at~90% utilization levels over the past five years. Hence, the company is in theprocess of increasing its battery capacity to cater to growing demand.

With increased capacity, we believe EXID is well placed to meet the rising auto

battery demand. We estimate the companys overall utilization level to remain

at ~80% in FY2015. Further, we expect EXID to post a volume CAGR of ~13%

each in the auto and industrial battery segments, over FY2013-15E.

Outlook and valuation

We broadly retain our revenue and earnings estimates for EXID for FY2014/15E.

We expect the company to register a ~15% revenue CAGR over FY2013-15,

driven by 12-13% volume CAGR in the automotive and industrial battery

segments, respectively. We expect EBITDA margins to improve ~130bp in FY2014

as the full benefits of price hikes taken in 3QFY2103 will accrue in FY2014.

Further, softening of lead prices coupled with cost reduction initiatives will also aid

margin expansion in our view. As a result, we expect earnings to register a CAGR

of ~22% over the same period.

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Exhibit 7:Change in estimatesY/E March Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates % chg

FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales (` cr) 7,026 8,026 7,053 8,061 0.4 0.4OPM (%) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.5 0bp 30bp

EPS (`) 7.7 8.9 7.8 9.1 1.3 3.1Source: Company, Angel Research

At the current market price of `136, the stock is trading at 14.9x FY2015E

earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with an SOTP basedtarget price of `150. We value the core battery business of the company at 15xFY2015E earnings at `137/ share. We value EXIDs 100% stake in ING Vysya Life

Insurance at `13/ share (at deal value).

Exhibit 8:Key assumptionsFY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

Automotive battery volumes (mn units)Four-wheeler 7.5 8.2 7.8 8.3 9.3 10.4

yoy change (%) 12.9 10.4 (4.6) 6.0 12.0 12.0

Two-wheeler 8.7 10.8 13.9 16.9 19.3 21.6

yoy change (%) 5.4 23.2 28.6 22.0 14.0 12.0

Total Automotive volumes 16.2 19.0 21.7 25.2 28.6 32.0yoy change (%) 8.7 17.3 14.2 16.2 13.3 12.0

Industrial battery vol. (mnAH) 1,565 1,760 1,830 2,105 2,400 2,688yoy change (%) 18.9 12.5 4.0 15.0 14.0 12.0


Exhibit 9:Angel vs consensus forecastAngel estimates Consensus Variation (%)FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

Net sales (` cr) 7,053 8,061 7,120 8,281 (0.9) (2.7)EPS (`) 7.8 9.1 7.7 9.2 2.1 (1.0)


Exhibit 10:One-year forward P/E band


Exhibit 11:One-year forward P/E chart


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(x) One-yr forward P/E Five-yr average P/ELong term average P/E

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Exhibit 12:Auto Ancillary Recommendation summaryCompany Reco. CMP(`) Tgt. price(`) Upside(%)

P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY13-15E EPSFY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E CAGR (%)

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 261 326 25.0 13.2 12.0 8.6 7.6 27.1 23.7 8.4Automotive Axle^ Neutral 270 - - 18.5 11.4 6.6 4.9 8.1 12.6 (10.8)

Bharat Forge* Neutral 229 - - 15.8 13.2 6.6 5.7 13.6 14.7 18.6

Bosch India# Neutral 8,892 - - 23.8 20.3 14.9 12.3 18.0 17.9 19.9

Exide Industries Accumulate 136 150 10.2 17.4 14.9 9.5 7.9 18.1 18.2 21.8FAG Bearings# Neutral 1,422 - - 16.1 13.0 9.5 7.3 15.5 16.5 6.9

Motherson Sumi* Buy 190 222 16.6 15.2 12.9 7.1 6.1 27.5 25.8 23.0

Subros Accumulate 26 30 14.2 4.8 3.5 3.7 3.1 11.1 13.7 49.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Consolidated results; # December year end; ^ September year end

Company background

Exide Industries (EXID) is a leading automobile and industrial battery manufacturer

in India. The company commands an ~70% and ~60% market share in the OEM

and organized replacement battery segment respectively and a 40-45% share in

the industrial battery segment. EXID has technological tie-ups with majors such as

Shin Kobe and Furukawa Battery. The automotive and industrial battery segments

accounted for ~65% and ~35% of the company's total revenue in FY2012,

respectively. EXID also has a 50% stake in ING Vysya Insurance Ltd, a JV with ING

Group, Netherlands.

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Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ETotal operating income 3,794 4,547 5,110 6,072 7,053 8,061% chg 11.8 19.9 12.4 18.8 16.1 14.3Total expenditure 2,902 3,666 4,426 5,288 6,051 6,892Net raw material costs 2,158 2,823 3,436 4,039 4,616 5,264

Other mfg costs 231 283 326 423 490 552

Employee expenses 230 283 286 349 413 472

Other 283 277 377 478 532 605

EBITDA 892 881 684 784 1,001 1,169% chg 62.8 (1.2) (22.4) 14.6 27.7 16.7

(% of total op. income) 23.5 19.4 13.4 12.9 14.2 14.5

Depreciation & amortization 81 83 101 113 128 144

EBIT 811 798 583 671 874 1,025% chg 69.0 (1.7) (26.9) 15.0 30.3 17.3


Interest and other charges 14 9 5 4 6 8

Other income 12 151 67 76 83 92

(% of PBT) 1.5 16.7 10.4 10.2 8.8 8.3

Recurring PBT 810 940 645 742 951 1,109% chg 86.2 16.0 (31.4) 15.1 28.1 16.6

PBT (reported) 811 907 645 742 951 1,109Tax 273 274 184 220 285 333

(% of PBT) 33.7 30.2 28.5 29.6 30.0 30.0

PAT (reported) 537 666 461 523 666 776ADJ. PAT 537 633 461 523 666 776% chg 89.7 17.8 (27.1) 13.4 27.3 16.6


Basic EPS (`) 6.3 7.8 5.4 6.2 7.8 9.1Adj. EPS (`) 6.3 7.4 5.4 6.2 7.8 9.1% chg 78.5 17.8 (27.1) 13.4 27.3 16.6

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Cash flow statement (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 810 940 645 742 951 1,109

Depreciation 81 83 101 113 128 144Change in working capital (59) (238) (29) (155) (67) (144)

Others (23) 37 42 (48)

Other income (12) (151) (67) (76) (83) (92)

Direct taxes paid (273) (274) (184) (220) (285) (333)

Cash Flow from Operations 524 398 508 357 643 684(Inc.)/Dec. in fixed assets (100) (234) (195) (173) (260) (280)

(Inc.)/Dec. in investments (667) (43) (177) (86) (292) (299)

Other income 12 151 67 76 83 92

Cash Flow from Investing (755) (126) (304) (183) (469) (488)Issue of equity 530 (0) 0 0 0 0

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (227) (90) (0) 0 0 0

Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 56 95 140 157 147 147

Others (159) (265) (281)

Cash Flow from Financing 200 (260) (140) (157) (147) (147)Inc./(Dec.) in cash (31) 12 43 17 27 50

Opening Cash balances 34 3 15 58 75 102Closing Cash balances 3 15 58 75 102 152

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Key ratios

Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 21.5 17.4 25.1 22.1 17.4 14.9P/CEPS 18.7 16.1 20.6 18.2 14.6 12.6

P/BV 5.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.5

Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1

EV/Sales 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1

EV/EBITDA 11.6 11.5 14.6 12.6 9.5 7.9

EV / Total Assets 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 6.3 7.8 5.4 6.2 7.8 9.1

EPS (fully diluted) 6.3 7.4 5.4 6.2 7.8 9.1

Cash EPS 7.3 8.4 6.6 7.5 9.3 10.8

DPS 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5

Book Value 25.8 31.9 35.7 40.0 46.1 53.5

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 21.4 17.5 11.4 11.0 12.4 12.7

Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Asset turnover (x) 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8

ROIC (Post-tax) 57.4 45.6 27.8 28.0 32.0 33.4

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.4 13.5 12,628 - - -

Leverage (x) - - - - - -

Operating ROE 57.4 45.6 27.8 - - -

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 40.8 30.5 19.3 19.9 22.9 23.4

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 81.1 55.4 37.4 37.1 43.5 44.8

ROE 31.0 25.5 15.9 16.1 18.1 18.2

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.4

Inventory / Sales (days) 50 59 65 64 65 66

Receivables (days) 23 25 27 27 27 27

Payables (days) 42 46 52 48 48 50

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 26 35 40 39 39 39

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

Net debt to EBITDA (1.4) (1.6) (2.4) (2.2) (2.0) (2.0)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 60.1 91.8 110 161 142 125

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May 3 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Exide Industries

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Documents

Exide 4Q FY 2013