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Industry Health Report: May 2016 Performance Review: April 2016 Power Information Network May 9, 2016

Health Report: May 2016 - J.D. Power · Industry Health Report: May 2016 ... ‐ Small SUV industry retail sales mix has grown to 5.6%, +1.9ppts ahead of last year, while Compact

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Page 1: Health Report: May 2016 - J.D. Power · Industry Health Report: May 2016 ... ‐ Small SUV industry retail sales mix has grown to 5.6%, +1.9ppts ahead of last year, while Compact

Industry Health Report: May 2016Performance Review: April 2016

Power Information NetworkMay 9, 2016

Page 2: Health Report: May 2016 - J.D. Power · Industry Health Report: May 2016 ... ‐ Small SUV industry retail sales mix has grown to 5.6%, +1.9ppts ahead of last year, while Compact

2Power Information Network  │©2016 J.D. Power and  Associates. All Rights Reserved. CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY—For Internal Use. 2

Agenda

1. April Highlights

2. Industry Sales Performance

3. Share Performance

a) Segmentb) Regional

4. New Model Launches

5. Industry Health

a) Sales and Financialb) Incentives and Inventory Turnc) Used Car Marketd) Consumer Metricse) Purchase Method

Page 3: Health Report: May 2016 - J.D. Power · Industry Health Report: May 2016 ... ‐ Small SUV industry retail sales mix has grown to 5.6%, +1.9ppts ahead of last year, while Compact

3Power Information Network  │©2016 J.D. Power and  Associates. All Rights Reserved. CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY—For Internal Use.

1. April Highlights (all changes are year‐over‐year unless noted)Sales & SAAR• Industry total sales have declined for two straight months

‐ Apr’16 total SAAR of 17.4 million grew 0.6M from Apr’15, or +3.8% 

‐ Total sales grew absolutely, +54K to 1.51 million, however this is a 0.2% decline on DSR‐basis as Apr’16 had 27 selling days, one more than Apr’15

• Retail sales rebounded from March’s 8.2% decline with 0.4% gain (DSR)‐ Retail sales increased 49K units to 1.20 million, however one extra selling day kept sales growth down

‐ Retail SAAR of 14.2M grew 0.6 million from last year or +4.3%

• Non‐retail sales growth beaten by retail for only fifth time since May’14‐ Non‐retail growth of ‐2.1% (DSR) amounts to +5K non‐retail unit growth to 307K sales

‐ Apr’16 non‐retail mix of 20.4% fell 0.4ppts vs. year‐ago levels of 20.8%

CFTP & Incentives• Customer‐Facing Transaction Price posted its best growth of 2016 at 1.6% or +$485/unit

‐ CFTP of $31,201 is the best‐ever April, however its year‐over‐year gain trailed the 2.6% growth recorded last April

‐ YTD Consumer Expenditures have grown 2.8% to $134.2 billion (+$3.6B), however it trail 2015’s total growth of 7.2%

• Incentive spending posted its highest growth of 2016 at +$326/unit to $3,237‐ Incentive spend as a proportion of MSRP reached 9.0% vs. 8.1% for Apr’15

• Consumers continue to shift to lease: Apr’16 levels of 31.0% reflects an increase of +3.9ppts vs. Apr’15‐ 2016 YTD lease mix has grown 3.9ppts from 2015 levels to 31.5%, buoyed by a surge in lease maturities

‐ Leasing may be pulling in consumers from extended‐term finance contracts, which are down 0.6ppts YTD to 33.2% of industry transactions

Segment Performance• The year of the Small SUV marches on while 2015’s hottest segment, Compact SUV, is falling

‐ Small SUV industry retail sales mix has grown to 5.6%, +1.9ppts ahead of last year, while Compact SUV has fallen 0.6ppts (vs +1.0ppts in 2015)

• Large Pickup also grew +0.7ppts vs Apr’15 to 12.5% of industry retail sales‐ Large Pickup YTD industry share has now surpassed Midsize Car to become the #3 segment, trailing only Compact SUV and Compact Car

• Midsize Car continues to fall even as product freshenings enter segment‐ Despite the launch of multiple mid‐cycle freshenings, Midsize Car is off 0.9ppts vs 2015 YTD and ‐2.3ppts from 2014 YTD

• Premium segments’ share grew 0.05ppts in April, its first growth month since May’15

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1a: Industry Scorecard

Industry IndustryOverall Performance 14 15 16 16 o/(u) 15 16 o/(u) 15Total Sales 5,108,752 5,384,141 5,555,906 2.2% 2.2%Retail Sales 4,126,371 4,267,524 4,336,312 0.6% 0.6%Retail % of Total Sales 80.8% 79.3% 78.0% ‐1.2 ‐1.2Transaction Price $29,737 $30,584 $30,940 1.2% 1.2%Consumer Spending (millon) $122,707 $130,516 $134,167 2.8% 2.8%Vehicle Gross/Unit $702 $641 $554 ‐$87 ‐$87F&I Income/Unit $741 $799 $819 $20 $20

Health IndicatorsIncentives/Unit $2,911 $3,048 $3,365 $317 $317Incentives as % of MSRP 8.6% 8.8% 9.5% 0.7 0.7Lease Mix 26.0% 27.7% 31.5% 3.8 3.872mo & Longer Sales Mix 32.2% 33.8% 33.2% ‐0.6 ‐0.684mo & Longer Sales Mix 2.9% 4.0% 5.4% 1.4 1.4Average Loan & Lease Term 57 57 56 ‐1 ‐1Sub‐650 FICO Mix 17.3% 17.3% 17.1% ‐0.2 ‐0.2Loan to Value 98.4% 99.4% 101.1% 1.6 1.6Trade‐In Equity $4,418 $4,406 $4,120 ‐$286 ‐$286% Negative Equity 27.6% 29.1% 31.4% 2.3 2.3Days to Turn 65 65 65 0 0Lease Maturities 736,023 716,166 930,916 30.0% 30.0%

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1b: Car Industry vs Truck Industry Scorecards

Car Industry Truck IndustryOverall Performance 15 16 16 o/(u) 15 15 16 16 o/(u) 15Total Sales 2,434,254 2,309,285 ‐6.1% 2,949,887 3,246,621 9.0%Retail Sales 1,857,797 1,777,070 ‐5.3% 2,409,727 2,559,242 5.2%Retail % of Total Sales 76.3% 77.0% 0.6 81.7% 78.8% ‐2.9Transaction Price $26,013 $25,273 ‐2.8% $34,100 $34,850 2.2%Consumer Spending (millon) $48,327 $44,912 ‐7.1% $82,172 $89,190 8.5%Vehicle Gross/Unit $345 $267 ‐$78 $870 $750 ‐$120F&I Income/Unit $740 $759 $19 $844 $861 $17

Health IndicatorsIncentives/Unit $3,185 $3,634 $449 $2,943 $3,179 $236Incentives as % of MSRP 10.5% 12.1% 1.6 7.7% 8.1% 0.4Lease Mix 31.3% 36.1% 4.8 24.8% 28.3% 3.572mo & Longer Sales Mix 33.8% 33.3% ‐0.5 33.8% 33.0% ‐0.884mo & Longer Sales Mix 2.6% 3.3% 0.6 5.2% 6.8% 1.6Average Loan & Lease Term 56 55 ‐1 58 57 ‐1Sub‐650 FICO Mix 21.1% 21.9% 0.8 14.2% 13.5% ‐0.7Loan to Value 103.3% 105.4% 2.0 96.3% 98.0% 1.7Trade‐In Equity $2,734 $2,147 ‐$587 $5,391 $5,132 ‐$259% Negative Equity 35.2% 38.7% 3.5 25.6% 27.7% 2.1Days to Turn 73 76 3 59 57 ‐2Lease Maturities 435,221 541,019 24.3% 280,945 389,897 38.8%

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SAAR (MM)2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

F'cst2017 F'cst

Apr‐15 May‐15 Jun‐15 Jul‐15 Aug‐15 Sep‐15 Oct‐15 Nov‐15 Dec‐15 Jan‐16 Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16 Units % Units %

Total 10.42  11.57  12.76  14.47  15.57  16.49  17.44  17.76  17.96  16.73  17.66  16.99  17.50  17.78  18.15  18.23  18.18  17.31  17.56  17.52  16.51  17.37  0.6 3.8% 0.9 5.2%

Retail 8.63  9.18  10.32  11.73  12.84  13.56  14.25  14.35  14.63  13.59  14.44  13.49  14.38  14.22  15.35  14.85  13.94  14.56  14.12  13.66  12.55  14.18  0.6 4.3% 1.6 12.9%

Sales  (MM)Total  Sales 10.42  11.57  12.76  14.47  15.57  16.49  17.44  17.76  17.96  1.45  1.63  1.48  1.51  1.57  1.44  1.45  1.32  1.64  1.15  1.34  1.59  1.51  53,542  (0.2%) (89,130) (5.6%)

Retai l  Sales 8.63  9.18  10.32  11.73  12.84  13.56  14.25  14.35  14.63  1.15  1.33  1.17  1.29  1.36  1.20  1.19  1.06  1.37  0.89  1.03  1.22  1.20  48,520  0.4% (16,829) (1.4%)

Fleet Sales 1.79  2.39  2.44  2.75  2.73  2.93  3.20  3.41  3.33  0.30  0.30  0.31  0.22  0.22  0.24  0.26  0.26  0.27  0.26  0.31  0.38  0.31  5,022  (2.1%) (72,301) (19.1%)

Selling Days 26  26  25  26  26  25  28  23  28  24  24  27  27 

M/MY/Y

8.6  9.2  10.3 

11.7 

12.8 

13.6 

14.2 

14.3 

14.6 

1.8  2.

2.4 

2.7 

2.7  2.

9  3.2  3.4  3.3 

10.4  11.6  12.8  14

.5  15.6 

16.5  17.4 

17.8 

18.0 

Fleet Sales Retail Sales

1.2  1.

1.2  1.3  1.4 

1.2 

1.2 

1.1 

1.4 

0.9  1.0  1.

1.2 

0.3 

0.3 

0.3  0.2  0.2 

0.2 

0.3 

0.3 

0.3 

0.3 

0.3 

0.4 

0.3 

16.717.4

13.614.2

Retail Sales Fleet Sales Total SAAR Retail SAAR

2. Industry Sales Performance

Although industry total sales fell 0.2% (DSR), the 1.51 million sales translated to a 17.4M SAAR and a growth of 0.6M versus last year. April’s retail growth of 0.4% was only the fifth time since May’14 that retail has outpaced fleet

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3a. Segment Share Performance

Small SUV is the segment story of 2016. It is up both 1.9ppts from last April and on a YTD basis. Midsize Car continues to fall even as it has fresh product. Large Pickup is the second strongest mover

Rank Segment Apr'15 Month Trend Apr'16 2014 Share

2015 Share

2016 CYTD Share

CYTD/CYTD Change

1 Compact SUV 15.5% 14.5% 0.2 ‐0.9 14.2% 15.2% 14.6% ‐0.62 Compact Car 14.1% 14.0% 0.6 ‐0.1 14.9% 13.8% 14.1% 0.13 Large Pickup 11.8% 12.5% ‐0.1 0.7 11.7% 12.3% 12.3% 0.34 Midsize Car 12.8% 11.9% ‐0.5 ‐1.0 14.5% 13.0% 12.2% ‐0.95 Midsize SUV 11.9% 11.6% ‐0.4 ‐0.3 11.7% 12.0% 12.1% ‐0.36 Small  SUV 3.9% 5.9% 0.4 1.9 3.0% 4.4% 5.6% 1.97 Midsize Van 2.8% 3.0% 0.2 0.2 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 0.18 Small  Car 3.1% 2.7% ‐0.1 ‐0.4 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% ‐0.49 Midsize Pickup 2.3% 2.7% 0.1 0.4 1.6% 2.2% 2.6% 0.210 Midsize Sporty Car 2.1% 1.9% 0.2 ‐0.2 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% ‐0.111 Large Car 1.9% 1.8% ‐0.2 ‐0.1 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 0.112 Compact MPV 1.8% 1.5% 0.0 ‐0.4 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% ‐0.213 Large SUV 1.3% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 0.114 Compact Sporty Car 0.9% 0.9% 0.1 0.0 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.015 Large Van 0.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1

Non‐Premium Total 86.9% 86.8% 0.4 0.0 86.6% 86.6% 86.8% ‐

Rank Premium Segment Apr'15 Month Trend Apr'16 2014 Share

2015 Share

2016 CYTD Share

CYTD/CYTD Change

1 Midsize Prem SUV 3.1% 3.5% ‐0.1 0.4 3.4% 3.4% 3.6% 0.42 Compact Prem Car 3.6% 3.1% ‐0.3 ‐0.6 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% ‐0.73 Compact Prem SUV 1.7% 2.3% 0.0 0.6 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 0.64 Midsize Prem Car 1.5% 1.3% ‐0.2 ‐0.2 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% ‐0.45 Large Prem SUV 0.8% 0.8% 0.1 0.0 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.06 Small  Prem Car 0.9% 0.7% ‐0.1 ‐0.1 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% ‐0.17 Small  Prem SUV 0.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.08 Midsize Prem Sporty 0.5% 0.5% 0.1 0.0 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% ‐0.19 Large Prem Car 0.4% 0.3% 0.0 ‐0.1 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% ‐0.110 Compact Prem Sporty 0.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0

Premium Total 13.1% 13.2% ‐0.4 0.0 13.4% 13.4% 13.2% ‐Grand Total 100% 100% ‐ ‐ 100% 100% 100% ‐

M/M Change Y/Y Change

M/M Change Y/Y Change

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3b. Region Share Performance

South Central continues to struggle in 2016 and April is no exception. Southwest region was the top mix gainer in the month and is one of the strongest on a YTD basis, gaining 0.3ppts of industry mix

Rank Region Apr'15 Month Trend Apr'16 2014 Share

2015 Share

2016 CYTD Share

CYTD/CYTD Change

1 Northeast 25.9% 25.4% ‐0.3 ‐0.5 25.2% 25.1% 25.1% 0.3

2 North Central 23.0% 22.8% ‐0.2 ‐0.2 23.4% 22.7% 22.7% ‐0.1

3 Southeast 16.0% 16.4% ‐0.1 0.4 15.7% 16.1% 16.5% 0.3

4 Southwest 12.2% 13.3% 0.9 1.1 12.3% 13.0% 13.1% 0.3

5 South Central 13.8% 12.8% ‐0.4 ‐0.9 13.8% 13.8% 13.2% ‐0.8

6 Northwest 9.1% 9.3% 0.1 0.2 9.5% 9.3% 9.4% 0.0

Total 100.0% 100.0% ‐ ‐ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ‐

M/M Change Y/Y Change

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4. New Model Launches

Chrysler looks to keep its minivan portfolio fresh with a thorough redesign and a new (recycled from its recent past) name, Pacifica

Luxury SUVs from Cadillac and M‐B add to a growing space and will look to keep momentum going for their nameplates

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Retail Sales                  

(Millions)

Transaction Price

(Tho

usands)

Consum

er Expen

diture 

(Billon

s)

Yr/Yr ΔMonthly Performance Annual Performance CYTD/CYTD ΔCYTD Performance

5a. Industry Health: Sales and Financials

Higher retail sales combined with higher CFTP results in April expenditures that grew 5.9%. However, YTD the growth is slowing for both the top line retail sales and CFTP growth so that expenditure growth is running below half of last year

∆ (Units 000s) 

∆ (%)

∆ ($)

∆ (%)

∆ ($)

∆ (%)

1.2 1.2 1.2

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

0.4%

48.5

10.311.7

12.813.6 14.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

4.3 4.3

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

0.6%

68.8

$30.7 $31.0 $31.2

$25

$27

$29

$31

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

1.6%

$0.5$28.3 $28.6

$29.3$30.0

$30.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$30.6$30.9

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

1.2%

$0.4

$35.3 $37.7 $37.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

5.9%

$2.1

$292.4$335.2

$376.7$406.6 $435.9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$130.5 $134.2

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

2.8%

$3.6

∆ (Units 000s) 

∆ (%) 

∆ ($) 

∆ (%) 

∆ ($) 

∆ (%) 

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Incentives Per Unit

(Tho

usands)

Incentives % of M

SRP

Days‐To‐Turn

Yr/Yr ΔMonthly Performance Annual Performance CYTD/CYTD ΔCYTD Performance

5b. Industry Health: Incentives and Inventory Turn 

Industry incentives/unit continue to grow and are now 10.4% above last year’s levels. Even controlling for higher industry prices, incentive spend as a % of MSRP is up 0.8ppts YTD

∆ ($)

∆ (%)

∆ (%)

∆ (Points)

∆ (%)

∆ (Days)

$2.9

$3.4

$3.2

$2.6

$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

$3.4

$3.6

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

11.2%$2.7

$2.8$2.8

$3.0

$3.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$3.0

$3.4

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

10.4%

8.1%

9.4%9.0%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

10.1%

0.8

8.3% 8.4% 8.4%8.7%

9.1%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8.6%

9.3%

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

0.8

63.566.5

65.0

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

2.5%

1.6

48.6 49.8

57.6

62.3 61.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

65.0 65.1

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

0.1%

0.1

8.9%

$0.3 $0.3

∆ ($) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Points) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Days) 

∆ (%) 

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Used‐To

‐New

 Ratio

Used Ve

hicle Price  

(Tho

usands)

Odo

meter

(Tho

usands)

Yr/Yr ΔMonthly Performance Annual Performance CYTD/CYTD ΔCYTD Performance

5c. Industry Health: Used Car Market

Used sales are also growing strongly in 2016. Used sales as a % of new sales at affiliated dealers have grown 2.8ppts YTD. An influx of leases is driving these higher sales and also pushing down odometer readings

∆ (Miles)

∆ (%)

∆ (Points)

∆ (%)

∆ ($)

∆ (%)

80.1% 85.1% 84.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

5.3%

4.2

87.1%79.9% 78.6% 78.6% 78.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

85.8% 88.6%

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

3.3%

2.8

2.5%

$0.518.0 18.3

18.919.6

20.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$19.8$20.4

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

2.9%

$0.6

50.8

48.948.1

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

‐5.3%

‐2.7

52.353.5

52.951.8

50.9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

52.1

49.6

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

‐4.7%

‐2.4

$20.3 $20.6 $20.8

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

∆ (Points) 

∆ (%) 

∆ ($) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Miles) 

∆ (%) 

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% Sub

‐Prim

e% Negative Eq

uity

Daily Retail Sales 

By Age Range (Tho

usands) 

Yr/Yr ΔMonthly Performance Annual Performance CYTD/CYTD ΔCYTD Performance

Even as negative equity trades continue to climb, sub‐prime consumer make up of industry is falling. It fell in April, typically the end of sub‐prime season as the last of tax refunds are paid out

5d. Industry Health: Consumer Metrics

∆ (Points)

∆ (%)

∆ (Points)

∆ (%)

∆ (Daily Units)

∆ (%)

29.1%

31.6%31.2%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

7.3%

2.1

22.9%23.9%

25.6%

27.0%

29.1%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

29.1%

31.4%

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

7.8%

2.3

10.9 11.2 10.9

18.1 18.4 18.1

15.3 15.4 15.3

5

10

15

20

25

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

Age Range 16‐35 (%) Age Range 36‐55 (%) Age Range 56+ (%)

0.6%0.2%0.3%

0.10.00.1

7.68.8

9.7 10.4 11.3

14.916.5

17.7 18.5 19.1

11.212.9

14.5 15.2 15.8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10.4 10.5

17.4 17.4

14.5 14.5

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

0.5%0.1%1.7%

0.10.00.2

∆ (Points) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Points) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Daily Units) 

∆ (%) 

10.8% 10.4% 9.8%

17.4% 17.2% 16.2%

0%

10%

20%

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

Subprime (FICO < 621) Memo:  FICO ≤ 650

‐9.8%‐7.1%

‐1.1‐1.2

8.4%9.3% 9.7% 9.9% 10.0%

13.4%14.8% 15.5% 16.1% 16.5%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10.8% 10.4%

17.3% 17.0%

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

‐3.2%‐1.3%

‐0.3‐0.2

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Transaction Type

 Mix

Finance Term

 Mix

(As %

 of Ind

ustry Re

tail Sales)

Average Term

 Len

gth

Yr/Yr ΔMonthly Performance Annual Performance CYTD/CYTD ΔCYTD Performance

5e. Industry Health: Purchase Method

Leasing is another big story of 2016 and its April performance was on par with YTD – both metrics grew 3.9ppts. Leasing may be pulling in long‐term finance consumers as the rate is down 0.6ppts YTD

∆ (Points)

∆ (%)

∆ (Points)

∆ (%)

∆ (Months)

% ∆36.3 36.3 36.4

67.3 68.3 68.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

Lease Finance

1.1%0.2%

0.70.1

63.7 64.7 65.3 66.5 67.4

37.0 36.3 36.1 36.0 36.3

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

67.2 68.2

36.4 36.4

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

0.0%1.6%

34.3% 33.4% 33.0%

21.1%19.2% 20.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

Ext'd Term (72mo &  up) Standard Term

‐3.7%‐5.4%

‐1.3‐1.1

26.0% 29.4%

30.1% 32.2% 34.1%32.4%29.5%

27.7%24.0%

21.4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

33.8% 33.2%

21.4% 19.3%

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

‐9.7%‐1.9%

‐2.1‐0.6

0.01.1

17.5% 15.9% 15.9%

55.4%52.7% 53.0%

27.1%31.4% 31.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Apr'15 Jun'15 Aug'15 Oct'15 Dec'15 Feb'16 Apr'16

Cash Finance Lease

‐8.7%‐4.3%

14.4%

‐1.5‐2.4

3.921.5% 20.4%

18.2% 18.2% 16.6%

58.4% 58.9% 57.8% 56.2% 55.5%

20.1% 20.6%

24.0% 25.6% 28.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

17.1% 16.0%

55.2%52.5%

27.7%31.5%

2015 CYTD 2016 CYTD

14.0%‐4.9%‐6.7%

3.9‐2.7‐1.1

∆ (Points) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Points) 

∆ (%) 

∆ (Months) 

∆ (%) 

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• 72 Mo+ Term %:  The %of all sales in which a customer finances the vehicle through a lender provided by the retailer with a term length of 72 months or greater

• Buyer Age Range:• 16‐35 (%) :  The percentage of retail buyers between 16 and 35 years of age• 36‐55 (%):  The percentage of retail buyers between 36 and 55 years of age• 56+ (%) :  The percentage of retail buyers  who are 56+ years of age

• Customer Facing Transaction Price:  Vehicle Price less Customer‐Facing Incentive Spending/Unit (i.e. OEM incentives that require consumer disclosure). Customer facing incentives are captured and deducted directly from vehicle price.  Non‐customer facing incentives such as dealer cash are indirectly captured in vehicle price since the vehicle price is the “market clearing price” (Note: this is the most accurate reflection of the actual cost incurred by consumers)

• Conquest Rate:  Describes the percentage of transactions a segment captured from owners who were not originally from that segment

• Days to Turn:  The number of days between the date that the vehicle arrived at the retailer and the date that the vehicle was purchased or leased. Days to Turn is an indicator of selling velocity

• Disposer % of Industry Sales: Describes the composition of customers returning the marketplace as a percentage of industry retail sales

• FICO: The credit bureau rating for the customer at the time of the transaction (score is calculated using the FICO Risk® Score, Classic Auto) 

• Incentive Spending per Unit:  The dollar amount the manufacturer spends in loan or lease support, cash rebates, dealer facing‐incentives, dealer bonuses, etc.  Incentive spending per unit equals the sum of weighted cost per unit across all incentive types

• Loan to Cost:  Amount financed on vehicle purchased as a percentage of the vehicle’s cost

• Loyalty Rate:  The percentage of owners who replaced their vehicle with another vehicle from the same segment

• Odometer:  The vehicle odometer reading, at the time of transaction

• Percent Negative Equity:  The percentage of transactions with a Trade In where the Trade Payoff exceeds the Trade In ACV

• Revenue per Unit:  The dollar amount of revenue the manufacturer receives on the sale of a vehicle to the dealer.  Revenue per Unit is calculated as the Vehicle cost less incentive spending per unit

• SAAR:  Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate; calculated using seasonal factors, which are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

• Trade ACV less Payoff:  The Actual Cash Value (ACV) of the customer’s trade, less the Trade Payoff (amount the customer still owes on his previously‐financed Trade In)

• Type of Sale Lease / Lease Penetration:  The percentage of transactions in which a customer leases the vehicle through a lessor provided by the retailer

• Vehicle Cost: The retailer’s “net” or “dead” cost for the vehicle and for both factory and dealer‐installed accessories contracted for at the time of sale.

• Vehicle Price:  The price that the customer pays for the vehicle and for factory and dealer‐installed accessories and options contracted for at the time of sale, adjusted by the trade‐in allowance, but not adjusted for the customer cash rebate amount, if any. This price is not the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP)

• Used to New Ratio:  The ratio of used vehicle transactions to new vehicle transactions at new vehicle franchises

Glossary