Hong Kong SAR Government 2011 年第三季經濟報告 · Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 整體出口 Total exports

11

2011 2011 年第三季經濟報告年第三季經濟報告Third Quarter Economic Report 2011Third Quarter Economic Report 2011

&&2011 2011 年全年修訂經濟預測年全年修訂經濟預測

Updated economic forecasts for 2011Updated economic forecasts for 2011二零一一年十一月十一日二零一一年十一月十一日

11 November 201111 November 2011

香港特別行政區政府香港特別行政區政府

Hong Kong SAR GovernmentHong Kong SAR Government

22

2011年第三季經濟表現Economic performance in 2011 Q3

33

香港經濟增長進一步放緩Economic growth decelerating

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

按年增減Year-on-year change

經季節性調整按季增減Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

0.1%

4.3%

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

44

對外貿易環節External sector

55

整體貨物出口自2009年第四季以來首次下跌Total exports of goods fell for the first time since 2009 Q4

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011




貨物出口

Exports of goods

-2.2%

0.0%

66

貨物出口全面放緩The slowdown in exports was across-the-board

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

整體出口 Total exports美國 USA日本 Japan中國 China歐盟 EU不包括中國及日本的亞洲地區 Asia ex-China, Japan

經季節性調整的實質香港貨物出口

Seasonally adjusted Hong Kong's exports of goods in real terms

(2008年第一季 = 100)(Q1 2008 = 100)

77

旅遊業暢旺，整體服務輸出表現相對較佳Exports of services fared somewhat better on the back

of vibrant inbound tourism

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

6.6%

服務輸出

Exports of services

1.1%




88

本地經濟環節Domestic sector

99

私人消費保持強勁增長Private consumption sustained strong growth

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011




1.1%

8.8%

私人消費開支

Private Consumption Expenditure

1010

投資開支亦有顯著增長，主因是機器及設備投資大幅擴張Investment also grew notably, mainly driven by the huge

increase in machinery and equipment investment

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

0.0%

10.2%

26.4%

機器、設備及電腦軟件開支Machinery, equipment and

computer software 本地固定資本形成總額Gross domestic fixed

capital formation

樓宇及建造

Building and construction

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

1111

勞工市場Labour market

1212

失業率仍處於十三年以來的低位Unemployment rate staying at a 13-year low

註: 除整體失業率外，其他均為未經季節性調整數字。Note: Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q11999

Q12000

Q12001

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

低技術勞工

Lower-skilled workers

整體Overall

3.7%3.2%

1.6%

失業率 (%)Unemployment rate (%)

專業及管理員工Professional andmanagerial staff

1313

職位增長十分可觀，並進一步加快Job creation still impressive and gathered further pace

3 300

3 400

3 500

3 600

3 700

3 800

01/06 07/06 01/07 07/07 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11

總就業人數 ('000)Total employment ('000)

未經季節性調整。Not seasonally adjusted.

註：Note:

2011年第三季與2010年低位(2010年3月至5月)相比

Q3 2011 compared with 2010 trough(Mar - May 2010)

+ 173 300

1414

工資及勞工收入增幅可觀Labour wages and earnings rose notably

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

就業人士平均薪金指數Index of payroll

per person engaged

僱員每月平均就業收入Average monthly

employment earnings of employees

按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change (%)

工資指數Wage index

15

市民收入大幅改善Income improved significantly

按年增減率Year-on-year rate of change

名義

Nominal實質

Real

全職僱員每月平均就業收入 (2011年第三季)Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees (2011 Q3)

8.1% 1.6%

住戶每月入息中位數 (2011年第三季)Median monthly household income (2011 Q3)

11.1% 4.4%

收入最低十等分的全職僱員每月平均就業收入 (2011年第三季)Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees in the lowest decile group (2011 Q3)

13.1% 5.0%

15

1616

通脹Inflation

1717

通脹升溫是全球的普遍現象Rising inflation is a global-wide phenomenon

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

香港(左標線)Hong Kong (LHS)

中國內地(左標線)Mainland China (LHS)

新加坡(左標線)Singapore (LHS)

南韓(左標線)South Korea (LHS)

馬來西亞(左標線)Malaysia (LHS)

巴西(左標線)Brazil (LHS)

美國(右標線)US (RHS)

歐盟(右標線)EU (RHS)



1818

食品和住屋於第三季仍是推高通脹的主要因素Food and housing still key in driving up inflation in the

third quarter

0.7

0.9 1.11.4 1.5

1.81.9

2.02.3 2.4

1.1

1.31.3

1.6 1.7

1.9

1.92.0

2.1 2.1

3.4 3.5

4.4

5.1

6.3

5.8

6.4

5.5

4.3

2.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

12/2010 1/2011 2/2011 3/2011 4/2011 5/2011 6/2011 7/2011 8/2011 9/2011

食品Food

私人房屋租金Private housing rentals

交通Transport

其他Others

基本綜合消費物價指數Underlying CCPI

(%)

基本綜合消費物價指數按年變動率的主要組成項目Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index by major components

1919

但食品通脹在近月稍為回穩Yet food inflation stabilised somewhat in recent months

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32糧農組織食品價格指數(左標線)FAO Food Index (LHS)

香港食品進口價格 (右標線)HK Import price of foodstuffs (RHS)

中國消費物價指數-食品 (右標線)China CPI - food (RHS)

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011



綜合消費物價指數

- 基本食品CCPI - basic foodstuffs

食品進口價格Import price of foodstuffs


2020

本港住宅市場Local property market

2121

住宅價格在2011年第三季下跌2%Flat prices declined by 2% during 2011 Q3

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

整體住宅價格指數

Overall residentialprice index

指數(一九九七年十月=100)Index (1997 Oct=100)

70平方米以下住宅價格指數Residential price index

(less than 70 sq m)

100平方米或以上住宅價格指數Residential price index

(100 sq m or above)

較1997高位Above 1997 peak: 20%

較1997高位Above 1997 peak: 6%較1997高位Above 1997 peak: 6%

2222

住宅物業交投轉趨淡靜Residential property trading turned quieter

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

一月Jan

二月Feb

三月Mar

四月Apr

五月May

六月Jun

七月Jul

八月Aug

九月Sep

十月Oct

十一月Nov

十二月Dec

一月Jan

二月Feb

三月Mar

四月Apr

五月May

六月Jun

七月Jul

八月Aug

九月Sep

十月Oct

2010 2011

買賣合約數目Agreements received

2010年1月至11月平均數2010 Jan-Nov average

-34%-30%

-10% -9% -16% -21%

-54% -53% -58% -60%

2323

投機活動已大為收歛Speculative activities largely subsided

0

100

200

300

400

500

一月Jan

二月Feb

三月Mar

四月Apr

五月May

六月Jun

七月Jul

八月Aug

九月Sep

十月Oct

十一月Nov

十二月Dec

一月Jan

二月Feb

三月Mar

四月Apr

五月May

六月Jun

七月Jul

八月Aug

九月Sep

十月Oct

2010 2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

確認人交易數目Number of confirmor transactions

2010年1月至11月平均數2010 Jan-Nov average

-77%-53% -70%-58%

佔成交總數 (%)Share to total transactions (%)

確認人交易數目 (左標線)Confirmor transactions (LHS)確認人交易佔成交總數 (右標線)

Confirmor transactions as a share oftotal transactions (RHS)

-53% -71% -92% -85%-83% -92%

2424

置業供款負擔回落至約46%Mortgage payment to income ratio retreated to around 46%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

供款與收入比率^Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

1990-2009年平均值(1990-2009 average)

註︰ (^) 45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。Note : (^) The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median income of households (excluding those living in public housing).

負擔較輕More

Affordable

負擔較重Less

Affordable2011年第三季: 約 46

2011Q3: around 46

2525

2011年餘下時間展望Outlook for the remaining of 2011

2626

外圍環境充滿不明朗因素Uncertainties abound in the external environment

• 美國經濟後勁不繼; 公共財政狀況惡劣Economy losing momentum and difficult fiscal conditions in US

• 歐洲債務危機持續困擾Lingering concern over the European sovereign debt crisis

• 亞洲和新興經濟體受外圍放緩影響Weakening external demand weighs on Asian and emerging market economies

27

全球增長預測被下調Growth forecasts marked down

2.52

-0.7

9.6

5.1

8.4

1.5 1.7

-0.5

9.5

4.7

8.2

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

國際貨幣基金組織在今年六月及九月就二零一一年經濟增長的預測

IMF's 2011 growth forecasts in June and September 2011

年度實質增減率 (%)Annual rate of change in real terms (%)

美國US

歐盟EU

亞洲新興

工業化經濟體Asia NIEs

發展中亞洲Developing

Asia

中國內地Mainland

China

日本Japan

九月 Sep

六月 Jun

2828

歐美短期前景難有起色Short-term outlook in US and Europe is bleak

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11

美國供應管理協會

非工業生產指數

US ISM non-manufacturing Index

美國供應管理協會

工業生產指數 US ISM manufacturing Index

指數Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3/06 9/06 3/07 9/07 3/08 9/08 3/09 9/09 3/10 9/10 3/11 9/11

歐元區服務業採購經理指數

Eurozone Services PMI

指數

Index

歐元區製造業採購經理指數

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

29

先進經濟體財政的可持續性令人憂慮Fiscal sustainability in advanced economies is a key concern

資料來源: 國際貨幣基金組織

Source: IMF

29

2010預測

2011 (F ) 2010預測

2011 (F )預測

2016 (F ) 2010預測

2011 (F )預測

2016 (F ) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)

歐元區 Eurozone 1.8 1.6 -6.0 -4.1 -1.3 85.8 88.6 86.6葡萄牙 Portugal 1.3 -2.2 -9.1 -5.9 -1.7 92.9 106.0 110.5意大利 Italy 1.3 0.6 -4.5 -4.0 -1.1 119.0 121.1 114.1愛爾蘭 Ireland -0.4 0.4 -32.0 -10.3 -3.7 94.9 109.3 114.3希臘 Greece -4.4 -5.0 -10.4 -8.0 -2.8 142.8 165.6 162.8西班牙 Spain -0.1 0.8 -9.2 -6.1 -4.1 60.1 67.4 77.4

美國 US 3.0 1.5 -10.3 -9.6 -6.0 94.4 100.0 115.4

全球 World 5.1 4.0 -5.9 -5.0 -2.8 73.8 75.3 76.1先進經濟體

Advanced3.1 1.6 -7.5 -6.7 -3.4 98.1 102.9 109.4

新興經濟體Emerging economies

7.3 6.4 -3.7 -2.6 -2.0 40.9 37.8 30.9

政府總負債佔本地生產總值實質經濟增長率財政結餘佔本地生產總值Real GDP Fiscal balance Government gross debt

Growth as % of GDP as % of GDP

30

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q3

香港 (左標線)Hong Kong (LHS)



美國(左標線)US (LHS)

歐盟(左標線)EU (LHS)

新加坡(右標線)Singapore (RHS)

台灣(右標線)Taiwan (RHS)



30

(3.4%)

(1.6%)

(1.7%)

(4.3%) (9.1%)

(3.4%)

(5.9%)

亞洲經濟體的表現繼續優於先進經濟體，惟亦正在減慢Growth in Asian economies continued to fare better than

advanced economies, though likewise moderating

註: 除歐盟外，括號內標示的均為二零一一年第三季數字。歐盟標示的是二零一一年第二季數字。Note: Figures in the brackets refer to Q3 2011. Exception is the figure for the EU which refers to Q2 2011.

3131

亞洲經濟體的工業生產已明顯減慢Industrial production in Asia decelerating notably

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1/07 4/07 7/07 10/07 1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/09 7/09 10/09 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/11 4/11 7/11



印尼(左標線)Indonesia (LHS)

新加坡(右標線)*Singapore (RHS)*

台灣(右標線)Taiwan (RHS)

馬來西亞(右標線)Malaysia (RHS)

菲律賓(右標線)Philippines (RHS)

註： * 不包括表現波動的生物藥品製造業。該行業約佔2010年整體價值的20%。Note: * Excluding the volatile biomedical manufacturing sector, which accounted for about 20% of the total value in 2010.



32

外圍環境欠佳，本港出口前景不容樂觀HK’s export outlook not optimistic amid increasing

headwinds in external environment

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 *-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

年度實質增減率(%)Annual rate of changein real term (%)

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


全球經濟增長(左標線)

World economicgrowth rate (LHS)

實質增減率(%)Rate of change

in real terms (%)採購經理人指數PMI

香港採購經理人指數

前移兩月(左標線)Hong Kong's PMI shifted

forward by 2 months (LHS)

香港整體貨品出口 (右標線)

Hong Kong's total exports (RHS)

香港整體貨品出口 (右標線)

Hong Kong's total exports (RHS)

國際貨幣基金組織在二零一一年九月發表的《世界經濟展望》。

IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011.資料來源 : (*)Source:

3333

對外貨貿環節的營商信心下滑Business sentiment of trade-related

sectors turned negative

本地及旅遊環節的營商信心依然正面Domestic and tourism sectors

remained optimistic

淨差額展現了業務狀況預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「較佳」的機構單位百分比與填報「較差」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數

指可能向上趨升，而負數則為可能跌勢。

Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentagepoints between the proportion of establishments choosing "better" over that choosing "worse". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trendwhile a negative sign, a likely downward trend.

註 : *

Note : *

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

進出口貿易及批發Import/Export Tradeand Wholesale

運輸、倉庫及速遞服務Transportation, Storageand Courier Services

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

零售Retail

住宿及膳食服務Accommodationand Food Services

淨差額* (百分點)Net balance* (% point)


3434

勞工市場大致穩定，將為本地環節帶來支持Stable labour market should help the local segment

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q12006

Q22006

Q32006

Q42006

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

企業對於人手的預期 (左標線)Business expectation

on employment (LHS)


就業人數增長 (右標線)Employment growth (RHS)


淨差額展現了就業人數預期較前一季的變動方向。它是填報「上升」的機構單位百分比與填報「下降」的機構單位百分比的差距。正數指

可能向上趨升，而負數則為可能跌勢。Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in number of persons engaged versus preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points betweenthe proportion of establishments choosing "up" over that choosing "down". A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.

註 : *

Note: *

3535

香港經濟全年應可達5%增長Economy should be able to attain 5% growth this year

5%

-8-6-4-202468

101214

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

十年趨勢增長

10-year trend growth

(預測)(Forecast)


本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

(2001-2010)

3636

全球食品通脹已回落，有助緩和本港外來食品通脹壓力Global food inflation tended to stabilise, easing HK’s food

inflation pressure from the external front

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

03/05 09/05 03/06 09/06 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08 03/09 09/09 03/10 09/10 03/11 09/11-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

經季節性調整的按季增減率(%)Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter rate of change (%)

綜合消費物價指數 - 基本食品(左標線)Composite Consumer Price Index -basic foodstuffs (LHS)

聯合國糧農組織食品價格指數-後移一季 (右標線)FAO Food Price Index-lag one quarter (RHS)

經季節性調整的按季增減率(%)Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter rate of change (%)

3737

早前私人住宅租金急升仍有滯後影響，但近期升勢亦有緩和跡象Lagged effect from earlier rental surge feeding through, though

with the pace of increase tapering somewhat lately

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

03/05 09/05 03/06 09/06 03/07 09/07 03/08 09/08 03/09 09/09 03/10 09/10 03/11 09/11

經季節性調整的按季增減率 (%)Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter rate of change (%)

基本綜合消費物價指數 -私人房屋租金

Underlying CCPI -Private hosuing rent

新簽訂租金

(24月移動平均數)Fresh letting rental

(24 months moving average)

3838

外圍方面 Externally:

• 環球食品及商品價格在近月已稍為回落Global food and commodity prices retreating lately

• 內地食品通脹見頂Mainland’s food inflation has peaked

本地方面 Domestically:

• 早前租金上升的滯後效應Further feed-through from the earlier rental increases

• 新近簽訂租金升幅已收窄The increase in latest market rentals has narrowed

• 經濟進一步放緩，物價壓力料會隨之緩和Price pressure should ease following further deceleration in theeconomy

預期通脹仍會稍為上升，然後見頂Inflation expected to edge up further before reaching peak

3939

2011年全年最新經濟預測Latest Economic forecasts for 2011 as a whole

5.3%5.5%基本通脹率Underlying inflation

5.2%5.4%整體通脹率Headline inflation

5%5-6%實質經濟增長率Real GDP growth

最新預測Latest forecasts

八月十二日所作預測Forecasts as released

on 12 August

4040

完

End

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