Iowapoll111230nbcmarist

8/3/2019 Iowapoll111230nbcmarist

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Screener

Are you 18 years of age or older?

Do you consider your permanent home address to be in :

HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY

GENDER GUESS

PRIMRULE: STATE PRIMARY RULES.

Open - enrollment - walk-up

Open - enrollment - no walk-up

Open - no enrollment - walk-up

Open - no enrollment - no walk-up

Semi-open - enrollment - walk-up

Semi-open - enrollment - no walk-up

Closed - enrollment - walk-up

Closed - enrollment - no walk-up

Residents: n=3223, MOE +/-1.7% Residents: n=3223, MOE +/-1.7%

Have I reached you on your cell phone or on your regular home phone?

Percent PercentCell 27 32Regular home phone 73 68Total 100 100

NBC News/Marist Poll

2012 Republican Presidential Iowa Caucus

Questionnaire

TOSSUP NUMBERS FOR RELEASE ON PAGE 7

December 4, 2011December 30, 2011

NBC News/Marist Poll IA December 30, 2011; Page 1


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Are you registered to vote at your current address?

Percent PercentYes 88 87No 11 12Not a U.S. Citizen 0 0Unsure 1 1Refused 0 0Total 100 100

Non-registered voters Non-registered voters

What are the chances that you will register to vote in time for the Iowa caucus, are you:

Percent PercentAlmost certain to register to vote 11 12Probably going to register to vote 7 8The chances are fifty-fifty 17 16Or you do not think you will registerto vote by then

60 54

Unsure 4 7Refused 1 4Total 100 100

Percent PercentRegistered to vote 88 87Almost certain/Probably will register 2 2Not registered/Not likely to register 9 9Unsure 0 1Refused 0 1Total 100 100

Registered voters (NRVVOTE=1,2) Percent Percent

90 90

Registered voters (NRVVOTE=1,2): n=2905, MOE +/-1.8% Registered voters (NRVVOTE=1,2): n=2896, MOE +/-1.8%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Percent PercentApprove 45 43Disapprove 43 46Unsure 12 12Total 100 100

NRVVOTE: Are you registered to vote at your current address? If NO: What are the chances

that you will register to vote in time for the Iowa caucus, are you:



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Do you plan to participate in the Iowa:

Percent PercentRepublican caucus 20 18Democratic caucus 15 17Or do you plan to wait to vote in thegeneral election

53 54

Not planning to vote 6 4Unsure 6 6Total 100 100


In which year were you born (recoded into age of respondent)?

Percent Percent18 to 29 16 2230 to 44 24 2445 to 59 28 28

60 or older 32 27Total 100 100


Percent PercentWhite 91 91African American or Black 2 2Latino or Hispanic 4 4Other 3 3Total 100 100


Percent PercentLess than $15,000 a year 12 1215,000 to just under $25,000 14 13$25,000 to just under $50,000 26 26$50,000 to just under $75,000 20 21$75,000 to just under $100,000 13 13$100,000 or more 15 15Total 100 100

Which of the following includes your combined family income before taxes:

Are you white, black or African-American, Latino or Hispanic, or Asian? (If not Latino: Are

you Hispanic or Latino background, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or

some other Spanish background?)



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Which county in Iowa do you live in (recoded into region of the state)?

Percent PercentEastern Cities 25 25East Central 24 24Central 30 30West 22 22Total 100 100


Now thinking about your telephone use, do you have a working cell phone?

Percent PercentYes 78 77No 21 23Unsure 0 0Refused 0 1Total 100 100


Of all the telephone calls that you receive are:

Percent PercentAll calls received on a cell phone 18 20Almost all calls received on a cellphone

15 16

Some received on a cell phone andsome received on a regular homephone

31 30

Very few received on a cell phone 19 16None received on a cell phone 17 18Unsure 1 0Refused 1 1Total 100 100



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Percent PercentDemocrat 38 36Republican 28 28Independent, that is not enrolled inany party

34 35

Other 0 0Total 100 100

REPSEL: REPUBLICANS PRTID=05 OR PRTDF=04 OR PARTYR=05

Republican=1

Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party Movement?

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely Voters

Tea Party Supporters 19 46 21 47No 70 47 70 45Unsure 11 7 9 8Total 100 100 100 100

Tea Party supporters (TEAPARTY=1)

Would you say you strongly support the Tea Party Movement or just support it?

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersStrongly support Tea Party 6 19 6 20Support Tea Party 13 27 15 27Does not support Tea Party 70 47 70 45Unsure 11 7 9 8Total 100 100 100 100

POTREP=1IF (REPSEL=1)OR (PRIMRULE=1, 2, 3, 4, 7 AND PRIMPRF=1)OR ((PRIMRULE=5, 6) AND (PARTYR=03 OR PRTDF=02, 03) AND (PRIMPRF=1))

POTREP: POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTORATE=1

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1): n=916,

MOE +/-3.2%; Likely voters: n=425, MOE +/- 4.8%

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1): n=884, MOE +/-3.3%; Likely voters:

n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

Are you registered/Will you register to vote as a:

Tea Party supporters (TEAPARTY=1)



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Percent PercentExcellent 34 30Good 25 28Fair 16 17Poor 25 25Total 100 100


Newt Gingrich 13 13 26 27Mitt Romney 22 22 19 19Michele Bachmann 5 6 7 7Rick Santorum 11 14 4 6Jon Huntsman 2 2 2 2Ron Paul 19 19 17 18Rick Perry 13 13 10 10Undecided 16 12 15 12Total 100 100 100 100

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersStrongly support 48 53 36 40Somewhat support 36 33 39 40Might vote differently 15 13 23 19Unsure 2 2 2 1Total 100 100 100 100

December 4: Tossup with Cain supporters' second choice:

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1):

n=884, MOE +/-3.3%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

USE TOSSUP RESULTS ON

PAGE 7

December 30: If the 2012 Republican presidential caucus in Iowa were held today, whom

would you support if the candidates are:

Would you rate your chances of participating in the Republican presidential caucus in Iowa

as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Would you say you strongly support somewhat support , or do you

think you might vote differently on primary day?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%




MOE +/-3.2%





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TOSSUP TO BE

USEDCOMPARISON


Mitt Romney 23 23 19 19Ron Paul 20 21 18 19Rick Santorum 12 15 4 6Rick Perry 14 14 11 10Newt Gingrich 14 13 27 28Michele Bachmann 5 6 7 7Jon Huntsman 2 2 2 2Undecided 10 7 12 9Total 100 100 100 100

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersNewt Gingrich 11 13 18 19Mitt Romney 22 21 19 17Michele Bachmann 10 11 12 12Rick Santorum 13 15 7 8Jon Huntsman 3 3 3 3Herman Cain n/a n/a 10 11Ron Paul 11 9 11 10Rick Perry 21 20 13 11Undecided 9 8 8 9

Total 100 100 100 100

December 4: Tossup with Cain supporters' second choice:


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1) with a candidate preference: n=738,MOE +/-3.6%; Likely voters: n=379, MOE +/- 5.0%

Who is your second choice for the Republican presidential caucus in Iowa?

December 30: Tossup including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate:



Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1) with a

candidate preference: n=765, MOE +/-3.5%; Likely voters:n=372, MOE +/- 5.1%



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Percent Percent

1 - Very interested 40 332 15 163 22 244 10 125 - Not interested at all 12 16Total 100 100

Have you ever participated before in the Iowa Republican presidential caucus?

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersYes 47 63 45 65No 53 37 55 35

Total 100 100 100 100

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersShares your values 30 30 29 29Is closest to you on the issues 23 23 29 31Can beat President Obama in 2012 27 28 21 21Has the experience to govern 16 15 19 16Unsure 4 4 3 2Total 100 100 100 100


n=884, MOE +/-3.3%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%





Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who to support for

the Republican presidential nomination? A candidate who:

Using the numbers 1 to 5, with 1 meaning very interested and 5 meaning not interested at all,

how interested are you in the Iowa Republican presidential caucus?


MOE +/-3.2%



9/14

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersAcceptable 50 50 48 46Acceptable but with reservations 27 27 25 28Not acceptable 19 21 23 24Unsure 4 3 4 3Total 100 100 100 100



Acceptable 43 44 39 38Acceptable but with reservations 29 29 30 31Not acceptable 22 24 26 27Unsure 6 4 5 4Total 100 100 100 100

Please tell me if you would find each of the following candidates acceptable, acceptable but

with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president: Rick Perry?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president: Newt

Gingrich?


with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president: Mitt Romney?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%









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Percent Likely Voters

Acceptable 34 37Acceptable but with reservations 26 25Not acceptable 34 34Unsure 6 3Total 100 100

Percent Likely VotersAcceptable 42 49Acceptable but with reservations 23 22Not acceptable 23 22Unsure 12 7Total 100 100


with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president: Ron Paul?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president: Rick

Santorum?


with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president: Michele

Bachmann?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%





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Percent Likely VotersNewt Gingrich 7 6Mitt Romney 8 7

Michele Bachmann 15 16Rick Santorum 19 23Jon Huntsman 2 2Ron Paul 21 21Rick Perry 13 11None 4 4Undecided 11 9Total 100 100

Percent Likely VotersNewt Gingrich 34 37Mitt Romney 25 26Michele Bachmann 3 4Rick Santorum 3 3Jon Huntsman 1 1Ron Paul 14 13Rick Perry 8 7None 2 2Undecided 10 7Total 100 100

Percent Likely VotersThe Republican nominee forpresident is a true conservative

53 54

The Republican nominee forpresident can best debate PresidentObama

38 39

Unsure 9 7

Total 100 100


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

Which one of the following candidates do you consider to be the true conservative:

Which is more important to you:

Which one of the following candidates do you think can best debate President Obama:


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%



12/14

Percent Likely VotersYes 61 68

No/Unsure 39 32Total 100 100

Percent Likely VotersYes 62 68No/Unsure 38 32Total 100 100


Percent Likely VotersYes 37 44No/Unsure 63 56

Total 100 100



n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

In the past month, have you been contacted by Ron Paul's campaign?

In the past month, have you been contacted by Newt Gingrich's campaign?

In the past month, have you been contacted by Mitt Romney's campaign?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%In the past month, have you been contacted by Michele Bachmann's campaign?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

In the past month, have you been contacted by Rick Santorum's campaign?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%



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Percent Likely VotersYes 62 69No/Unsure 38 31

Total 100 100

Percent Likely VotersYes 15 14No 80 81Unsure 5 6Total 100 100

Percent Likely VotersYes 15 17No 70 70Unsure 15 13Total 100 100


Very liberal 1 1 3 3Liberal 4 3 6 5Moderate 25 23 27 25Conservative 45 42 45 42Very conservative 26 31 20 26Total 100 100 100 100


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

On another topic, politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be very liberal, liberal,

moderate, conservative, or very conservative?

Do you want Jeb Bush to run for president in 2012, or not?

In the past month, have you been contacted by Rick Perry's campaign?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%



Do you want Sarah Palin to run for president in 2012, or not?


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%



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Are you Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, or Muslim?

Percent PercentProtestant 71 71Catholic 22 22

Other 3 5No Religion 4 3Total 100 100

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersYes 45 46 36 38No 55 54 64 62Total 100 100 100 100

Do you consider a Mormon to be a Christian, or not?

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersYes 55 55 54 55No-Unsure 45 45 46 45Total 100 100 100 100

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersNot college graduate 64 60 59 51College graduate 36 40 41 49Total 100 100 100 100


Are you male or female?

Percent Likely Voters Percent Likely VotersMale 49 59 49 59Female 51 41 51 41Total 100 100 100 100


n=884, MOE +/-3.3%

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1) & Religion

is Protestant, Other, None, or Refused

Potential Republican primary electorate (POTREP=1) & Religion is Protestant, Other, None,

or Refused


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%


n=433, MOE +/- 4.7%

Would you describe yourself as a fundamentalist or an evangelical Christian, or would you

not describe yourself that way?

What is the highest level of school you completed or the highest degree you received

(recoded)?






MOE +/-3.2%


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