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Why we need Foresight - featuring aging society
Kuniko URASHIMA, Ph.D. 浦島邦⼦子
S&T Foresight Center 科学技術動向研究センター National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) 科学技術・学術政策研究所
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) Japan ⽂文部科学省
Visiting professor at Nagoya Univ, Iwate Univ and The open Univ. of Japan 客員教授 名古屋⼤大学、岩⼿手⼤大学、放送⼤大学
SEAMEO@BKK, 11 March 2015
Outline 1. Our concern
2. Design of Future
• Current concerning in Japan• Structure of S&T strategy
• Design of Foresight• Planning
3
age
x10,000
Prediction of population in Japan127 Mil. (2005) 90 Mil. (2055)
Source:
First Vietnamese nurse candidates to arrive in June May 30, 2014
The Foreign Ministry said Friday that 138 Vietnamese candidates for nurse and caregiver jobs will arrive in Japan on June 6 under an economic partnership agreement. They will be the first candidates from the communist country accepted under the bilateral EPA that took effect in October 2009. After taking intensive Japanese lessons, the trainees will work at hospitals and care facilities across the nation starting in August. While gaining experience, they will aim to pass the national exams required to work as nurses and caregivers. At a bilateral summit in January 2013, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Vietnamese counterpart, Nguyen Tan Dung, agreed to promote the program. Japan has been accepting nurse and caregiver candidates from the Philippines and Indonesia, but their pass rates stand at only about 10 percent, mainly due to the language barrier.
Government policy has been changing of Law, regulation, etc
Nurse Care giver
Transition of acceptance number from Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam
Indonesia Philippines Vietnam
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Philippines Vietnam Philippines Vietnam
Candidate Actual
Totally 2,377
+ 66% + 53% + 80%
+ 19% + 16%
Employment status of Nurse 2003-2012 in Japan
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2. Design of Foresight survey
• Design of Foresight• Planning
Future is not only one way
National Foresight activities in the world
Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru,
Uruguay, Venezuela
North America: Canada, USA
Oceania: Australia,
New ZealandAfrica: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria,
Morocco, European Comission (Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya,
Botswana, Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia), Netherland (Kenya,
Uganda, Rwanda, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana)
Western Europe: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy,
Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, UK,
Central & East Europe: Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland, Russia, Ukraine
Middle East: Israel, Iran, Jordan,
Pakistan, Turkey
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Asia: China, India, Kazakhstan, Japan, Korea, Malaysia,
Singapore, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam
APEC, OECD, EU, SEAMEO, etc.
12
Integration with innovation policy
Background of S&T policy and Foresight
•Establishment of CSTP - Top down decision making
•Link between S&T policy and foresight
2001
1971 The 1st Technology Foresight
2005 The 8th S&T Foresight
Multi methods
Delphi
2010 The 9th S&T Foresight
Mission-oriented & interdisciplinary
Global and national changes
2010
1996-2000 The 1st S&T BP
2001-2005 The 2nd S&T BP
2006-2010 The 3rd S&T BP
Innovation 25
2011-2015 The 4th S&T BP
Great Disaster2016-2020
The 5th S&T BP ??
•Transition phase •Moderate link between S&T policy and foresight
1970-
1990-
•Catch up process •Bottom-up decision making •Consensus among sectors
2001 The 7thTechnology Foresight
Delphi
Every 5 years
2014 The 10th S&T Foresight
Vision base with Multi methods
1995 S&T Basic Law
Foresight
Basic plan
Who should involve S&T strategy
Steering committee consisted of a chair and 15 members
including social scientists
Experts panels by themeEach panel consisted of a chair and
around 10 members;
Workshops by themeFrom 30 to 50 people joined each workshop.
Participants were; S&T experts, social scientists, younger researchers, users, etc.
Delphi SurveyWeb survey,
scientist, citizens
Scenario WritingEach panel consisted of a chair and
around 10 members10 person x 8 area
Local WS
Why do we need Foresight- Increasing needs for data-infrastructure
● Foundation for more rational policy-making process– Data as “evidences” for policy making– Tool to improve quality of policy discussion– Base of policy evaluation and monitoring
● Resources for policy studies on S&T and innovation– Improve scientific methodology of policy studies– Stimulate researchers to join in policy studies from various disciplines
● Public accountability – Data as a tool for explanation– Openness of policy formation process
● Since 2011, NISTEP has been developing data and information infrastructure as part of MEXT’s “SciREX: Science for RE-designing Science, Technology and Innovation Policy” program.
14
Foresight Methods and activities
15
10th past
Change the future design
Innovation 25
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How realized? - 40 years experiments in foresightRealization rate of past Delphi surveys conduced between 1971-1992
0 50 100
Energy
Environment
Life science
Medical care
ration of topic numbers (%)
technical problems Social problems
cost problems alternatives emerged
insuf f icient needs
Preventive reasons
0 50 100
EnergyEnvironm
ent
Life scienceMedical
care
ration of topic numbers (%)
realized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010unrealized topics that were predicted to realize af ter 2010topics that were predicted to realized until 2009
*"realized " means "realized at full" and "realized partially".
0 20 40 60 80 100
�st survey (1971)
2nd survey (1977)
3rd survey (1982)
4th survey (1987)
5th survey (1992)
���
realized at full
partially realized
Ratio of Topics with accelerated realization
Around 70% of the topics in past Delphi surveys are realized at fully or partially.
Comparison of ratio of Researcher’s number by performance sector
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19
Depiction of better life around 2025
Depiction of better life around 2025
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北京通州区
課題解決型シナリオプランニング（３）
出典: H25年度SciREX委託報告より
26
Japanese GDP and population structure
NURSING WORKFORCE PROFILE DATABASE SUMMARY in 2013
http://www.icn.ch/images/stories/documents/pillars/sew/DATASHEET_SUMMARY_NURSING_PROFILE_WFF_2013.pdf
History and overview of Foresight design in Japan
• Multi methods that included social issue started since 8th survey.
• The 9th survey conducted mission oriented and interdisciplinary methods.
• The 10th survey is now on going. (2013-2014)
• The first trial of web base survey.
• Combination of technologies and society driven issue.
9th
Design of the 10th S&T Foresight
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＜Discussion Point＞・ Consider variety of circumstance・ Relating to electricity directly / in-directly・ Technologies / non-technologies・ Possibility, Effect, Sustainability
Group A (Forecast) Group B (Backcast)
＜Attendees ＞・ Industry / electric device maker, housing,
construction, developer, building maker, transportation, etc.
・ University, Institute] ・ Related organization
2. Workshop for Delphi Survey - Making Questionnaire
From Now to Future From Future to Now
Overview of the 10th Foresight project
NW members and Science associations
collaborations
31
⑧ Service society
① ICT and analytics
② Health, medical , …
③ Agricultures, food, …
④ Space, ocean, …
⑤ Environment, energy, …
⑥ Materials, devices, …
⑦ Infrastructure
Scenario analysis committees
Delphi Committees
Improvement of Lifestyle-related diseases
Industry analysis for renewable energy
Future Vision committees
NISTEP Foresight center
Web survey
2011-13
2014
Evaluation ofImportanceCertain/ uncertainNon-continuityMoralityInternational competitivenessRealization year for Tech. and Market/SocialChallenge/how
Setting-up topics
discussion
Results – response rate
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5,270 experts registered and 4,309 responded (cumulative total 6,078)
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90s 00s 10s
S&T Basic Plan
Administrative chronicle
Ruling party
NISTEP
1st 1996-2000
2nd 2001-2005
3rd 2006-2010
4th 2011-2015
CSTP
LDP DPJ
ForesightSTFC 2001
Administrative reform
Review of 2nd S&T Basic plan
Review of 3rd S&T Basic plan
Former CSTP
Theory-oriented research groups
Policy-oriented research groups
LDP
History of Government organization and S&T
Linkage between NISTEP’s Survey and Policy Making
Oct. 2002Request for foresight
May. 2003Budget allocated
May. 2005
Review
& Foresight
Survey design
Reporting progress
Comments and requests
Every three months
CSTP
Committees for the 3rd
Basic PlanInput of intermediate results
NISTEP
Final reports
Council members meeting
MEXT
Oct. 2004
Additional survey
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