Martin Williams Director, Bisham Consulting

Scope & definitionContainer movements onlyShort sea shipping in N EuropeSmall ports market place – Bulk

Cars Forestry Coal etc RoRo Intra-European containers Feeder operations

The Big QuestionsCan we persuade shippers to move from road

to sea?

Can we win business away from the main ports?

Times, they are a’changingBunker pricesWorld trade RecessionMega carriersPort congestion

You can’t buck the market, can you?

Supply & Demand1400 container vessels on order 6.9m teu 58% of the current fleetOf these 194 vessels > 10,000teuRecent trade forecasts halved

What will happen to the excess tonnage?

UK leading portsGrimsby & Immingham 66.3 Mt

London 52.7 Mt

Tees and Hartlepool 49.8 Mt

Southampton 43.8 Mt

Forth 36.7 Mt

Felixstowe, the leading container port,

handled 2.1 million containers (3.3 million

TEU), a 10 per cent increase on 2006.

Phase 1 of the London Gateway = 1.7m

Major N European ports Rotterdam – 10.8m teuHamburg – 9.9mAntwerp – 8.2mBremerhaven – 4.9m Felixstowe - 3.3m

compared to the world.......

Major world-wide portsSingapore – 27.9m teuShanghai – 26.2mHong Kong – 24.0mShenzen – 21.1mBusan – 13.3m

Felixstowe is not in the Top Twenty! 7 are in China

Move from road to seaFuel costsRoad tollsWTDCongestion EnvironmentalDriver shortagesGovernmental support

So short sea operators are well positioned, aren’t they?

Well.......Short sea operators are at the bottom of the

food chainNew sulphur limits agreed at the

International Maritime Organization Government support?Not necessarily cheaperPort hinterland/access – road/railCustomer reluctance

Winning business from the main portsDeepsea operators are reducing main line

ports – hub conceptDeepsea operators do their own feederingExisting networks are well established with

significant investment (terminals and road/rail connections)

Trend increasing for deepsea operators to own their own terminals

Most deepsea operators have no interest in setting up in ‘new’ ports

Some examples• Maersk – 7 Asia/N. Europe services

calling Rotterdam (6), Bremerhaven (4) F’stowe (3), Hamburg (3), Le Havre (2) Zeebrugge (2)

• Evergreen – 3 Asia/N. Europe services calling at Rotterdam (3), Hamburg (2),Le Havre(2)

Bremerhaven, Thamesport , F’stowe,

S’ton & Zeebrugge (1)

• Mediterranean Shipping – 2 Asia/N. Europe services calling at F’stowe/Rotterdam/Antwerp or Le Havre/Hamburg/Bremerhaven

Significant Investment Terminal Capacity pa

Cost

ECT Euromax 2.3m teu $550m

London Gateway 3.5m teu $2700m

Northern Gateway 1.5m teu $539m

ConclusionsShort sea trade volumes will increase – but

largely as a result of trade growthEU moves to develop Motorways of the Sea

will be limitedShort sea operators may loose out to the

deepsea operatorsGlobal recession may have a major impact on

the viability of some carriersUK particularly requires significant

investment in road/rail port access

ConclusionsDemand for port based logistics/distribution

centres will growSmall ports can only challenge the main ports

if the importers lead the charge, but who will cover the investment and will the deepsea carriers follow?

In the short term port congestion will disappear and this will help the status quo

Channel TunnelChannel Tunnel freight services have failed

to meet initial expectations. Rail freight on through services has declined by 45 per cent since 2000.

In 2006 1.6 million tonnes of rail freight were carried on the Channel Tunnel

The amount of road freight carried through the tunnel has risen by 16 per cent from 14.7 to 17 million tonnes over the last five years