Myanmasa Analyzing the Real Sector; IMF TAOLAM training ... · “Introduction to Financial Programming” December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar ... က ႑ Central Bank of Myanmar

ျခငသးသပခက

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Jan Gottschalk

TAOLAM

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

I. ဖြ႕ျဖးတးတကမႈII. စစေပါငး ျပညတြငးထတကန GDPIII. ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈIV. လကရေပါကေစး Vs. ပမနေစးV. စစေပါငးျပညတြငးထတကနက ခန႔မနးျခငး

1. ပမန GDP က ခန႔မနးျခငး2. ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈက ခန႔မနးျခငး3. GDP Deflator4. လကရ GDP ခန႔မနးျခငး



3

Figure: Evolution of GDP 1000-2000

ေရရည အျမင



4

Figure: The evolution of income per capital 1960-2000



-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

GDP Growth per Capita (Constant LCU, Change in %)

Myanmar

Thailand



0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1,000.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

GDP per Capita (Constant LCU, 1960=100)

Myanmar

Thailand



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2009 2010 2011

GDP per Capita in US Dollars

Myanmar

Thailand



8



9

လပအား

အရငးႏး

ကနထတစြမးအား

ရပ၀တ

လ႕စြမးအား

နညးပညာ

အဖြ႕အစညး

ထတ

လပမ

ႈက

႑



10

စြန႔ဥးတထြငျခငးသညကယျပန႔ေသာ သေဘာထားျဖစျပးအေကာငးဆးေသာ လကေတြ႕လပေဆာငမႈ၊ နညးပညာအသစႏငပစညးအသစထတလပမႈမားကလကချခငးမားပါ၀ငသည။၄ငးသည ရာေဖြမႈျဖစစဥျဖစျပး ဆးရးမႈအေျမာကမားႏင ေအာငျမငမႈအနညးကဥးသာရျပး စးပြားေရးကေရ႕သ႔ ပ႔ေဆာငေပးသည။



11

ေစးကြကစးပြားေရးတြငေစးႏႈနးသည ဟနခကညေအာင ထနးခပႏငမႈယႏရားျဖစသည။ တငးျပညစးပြားေရးတညျငမမႈဆကစပမႈေသာအေၾကာငးရာတြင ေစးႏႈနးတညျငမမႈသညအေကာငးဆးေသာေဆာငရြကခကျဖစသည။



12

ေစးႏႈနးယႏရားသညတညျငမေသာ ေစးႏႈနး၏ေနာကကြယတြငအေကာငးဆးအလပလပသည။သညကား-ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈနမျခငးႏင ေငြလႏႈနးတညျငမျခငး။



13



Real Investment (percent of GDP)

0

5

10

15

20

25

t [–4,0] t [1,5]* t [6,10]**

LICs with strong

growth

LICs with weak

growth



အသားတငႏငငျခားရငးႏး(percent of GDP)

0

1

2

3

4

t [–4,0]*** t [1,5]* t [6,10]**

LICs with

strong growth

LICs with weak

growth



ပမနပ႔ကန (percent of GDP)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

t [–4,0] t [1,5] t [6,10]**

LICs with strong

growth

LICs with weak

growth



0

5

10

15

20

25

t [–4,0]*** t [1,5] t [6,10]**

LICs with strong

growth

LICs with weak

growth

Inflation (1990-2011)



18



• ထတလပမႈက တငးတာျခငး။• လမႈဖလေရးက ခန႔မနးျခငး။• ကနးရငမားသည GDP အခးက လကျပးကယျပန႔စြာလႈပရားေန

သည။ ( ဥပမာ - ၀ငေငြ ) GDP အခးGDP ခန႕မနးျခငးသည၀ငေငြကခန႔မနးျခငး၏အေျခချဖစသည။

• တငျပညစးပြားေရးစမခန႔ခြျခငး GDP က သ၏အလားလာႏင တသားတညးရျခငး။

အဘယေၾကာင GDPသည အေရးၾကးသနညး



� အသားတငထတလပမႈ တငးျပညထတကန တနခန ( ႏစခါေရတြကျခငး၊ ဥပမာ - ေပါငမႈန႕ထတလပရာတြင အသးျပေသာဂ )

� အရညအေသြးျမင အသားတငထတလပမႈအႏႈတစားသးျခငး( ႏစခါေရ တြကျခငးက ဖယရားသည )

� ျပညတြငးအသားတငထတလပမႈ က႑စရ အရညအေသြးျမငမားစေပါငးထားျခငး၊ ကနေခာႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈ တနဖးက တငးထြာသည။

� စားသးမႈ အလယအလတျဖစႏငသည (ထတကနအတြက ကနၾကမး) ႏင ကနေခာ ( အမေထာငစႏင အစးရက႑အသးျပေသာ ကနစညႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈ )

� အသားတင ရငးႏးမႈ စကပစညးႏင တကတာအေဆာကအတညေဆာကျခငး

20

GDP ဆသညမာ အဘယနညး၊ မညသ႔တငးတာႏငသနညး။



Goods and services (real flow)

Estimate of GDP

Production Approach Money (financial flow) (Σ sectoral "value added")

"Goods Market" Expenditure Approach ( Y = C + I + X - M )

HOUSEHOLDS PRODUCERS

"Factors Market"

Income Approach (Y = wages + OS+TSP)

Wages (financial flow)

OS=gross operating surpluses of enterprises (including profits, rents, interests)

Labor (real flow) TSP=taxes less subsidies

NON-RESIDENTS

21



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

Composition of GDP (Constant 2006/07 Prices)

Agriculture

Mining and Energy

Industry &

construction

Services and trade



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

GDP Growth (Constant 2006/07 Prices)

GDP (constant

2006/07 prices)

Agriculture

Mining and Energy

Industry &

construction

Services and trade



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

GDP Growth (Constant 2006/07 Prices)

Services and trade

Industry &

construction

Mining and Energy

Agriculture

GDP (constant

2006/07 prices)



� စပယမႈ (A) = စားသးမႈ (C) + ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ (I) A = C + I

� အသားတငပ႔ကန (X-M)

X = ကနစညႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈပ႔ကနM = ကနစညႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈသြငးကန

�GDP = A + X – M

ျပညတြငး၀ယလအား ျပညပ၀ယလအား

25

အသးစရတဘကမ GDP



� ေနာကဆးစားသးမႈ (C)အမသး : food, electricity, cars, mobile phones, etc.အစးရ : ‘goods & services’ in recurrent budget� both imported & locally produced goods

� ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ (I)စကပစညး၊ ကရယာ� သြငးကနႏင ျပညတြငးထတကန ႏစခလး

� ပ႔ကန (X)အ၀တအထည၊ ဆန၊ ေကာကစမး

� သြငးကန (M)ကား၊ ဖနး၊ စကပစညး၊ ကရယာ

26

အသးစရတဘကမ GDP - ဥပမာမား



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Food Gas

Garments Wood

Other Total Exports

Main Exports(In percent of GDP)



� ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈသည ေဖာငးပြသညေစးႏႈနး တသမတတညးျမငတကျခငးျဖစသည။◦ ကနပစညးႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈအားလးသည ပမးမေစးႏႈနးျမငတကျခငး Vs.

ကနပစညးႏင ၀နေဆာငမႈတခစ၏ ႏႈငးယဥေစးႏႈနးေျပာငးလျခငး◦ ေစးႏႈနးမျငမျမငတကျခငး Vs. ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြျခငးျဖစစဥ

� တငးတာမႈတြင ေျပာငးလခကမား ျဖစေန:− The consumer price index (CPI)

− Wholesale (WPI) or Producer Price Index (PPI)

− The GDP deflator (PGDP)

28



� ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈအသငတငနညးျခငးသည ေစးႏႈနးတညျငမမႈႏင ညမသည။� တငးျပညစးပြားေရးတညျငမမႈ၏ အဓကလအပခက� တးတကမႈအတြက အေရးၾကး

� တငးျပည စးပြားေရးကနးရငမားတြင ေစးႏႈနးအပငးပါ၀ငသည။

Nominal GDP = Real GDP * GDP Deflator

� ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈသည ေစးႏႈနးက နားလညရန အေထာကကျပသည။



Π (ေစးၽႏႈနးေဖာငးပြျခငး)



� Nominal GDP: ထတကနလပငနးက လကရေစးျဖငတငးတာျခငး။

� Real GDP: ထတကနတနဖးတငးတာျခငး-- စးပြားေရး၏ရပပငးဆငရာ ထတကနမလေျပာငးလ-- ပေသႏစအလက ေစးႏႈနးက အသးျပသည။

� NGDP အခနႏငအမ ေျပာငးလျခငးသည ေစးႏႈနးႏငရပပငးဆငရာထတလပမႈအေျပာငးလက ေဖာျပသည။

31



If inflation was 10%,

Real buying power grew

BUT

↓If inflation was 30%,

Real buying power shrank

32



Fundamental relation to be used over & over !

� Approximation: ∆%V ≈ ∆%P + ∆%Q

� Exact relationship:

(1+ ∆%V/100) =(1+∆%P/100)*(1+∆%Q/100)

33

Nominal ႏင Real တ႔၏ ကြျပားျခားနားခကသည

Nominal GDP (V) = GDP Deflator (P) * Real GDP (Q)



34

GDP က ခန႔မနးျခငးသည အဘယေၾကာင အေရးပါသနညး။• GDP က ခန႔မနးျခငးသည အျခားအရာမားက ခန႔မနးျခငး၏ အစျဖစသည။ဥပမာ - ၀ငေငြသ႔မဟတသြငးကန• GDP ခန႔မနးျခငးသည GDP အခးကေရးဆြျခငးအတြက အေရးပါသည။• GDP ခန႔မနးျခငးသည တငးျပညစးပြားေရးစမခန႔ခြျခငးအတြက အခကအျခာျဖစသည။



35

• ခန႔မနးခကသည ပစမတကတကစြာထရန အလြနရားသည။• ခန႔မနးခက ကနးဂဏနးသညအေရးၾကးသည။ (e.g., for the budget), but …

• … ခန႔မနးခကေနာကကြယတြင ျဖစပကခေသာ ျဖစစဥသညအေရးၾကးသည။



36

• ကနလြနခေသာ အခနက ခြျခမးေလလာျခငးျဖင အစျပသည�မညသညအရာမားသညအဓကတးတကမႈျဖစချပး သတ႔ကလကရႏင အနာဂတက မညသအကးသကေရာကေစသနညး။• လကရအေၾကာငးက ဘာေတြသသနညး။• ၾကတငခန႔မနးျခငးသည ကနလြနခေသာ အခနႏင လကရကတြကခကခန႔မနးျပး မ၀ါဒ(ေျပာငးလ)ကထညသြငးစဥးစားျခငးျဖစသည/



� ပမန GDP က ခန႔မနးျခငး (volume)◦ ထြကႏႈနးအလားအလာႏင ကြာဟခက◦ ေရာငးလအား: � ထတလပမႈ� က႑အလကခန႔မနးျခငး◦ ၀ယလအား : အသးစရတ (C + I + X - M)

◦ ၀ယလအားႏင ေရာငးလအားညျခငး� ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈက ခန႔မနးျခငး (prices)

� NGDP ခန႔မနးခက ရယျခငး

37



38

• Potential GDP သည ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈဖအားက တးျခငး ေလာျခငး မလပဘသငတငမတစြာ ထတလပႏငျခငးျဖစသည။ သညမာ ၀ယလအားႏင ေရာငးလအားသည မတစြာ ရေနသည။

• Output gap: အမနတကယႏင ျဖစႏငေခ GDP တ႔၏ ကြာဟခက

• ထတလပမႈကြာဟခကသည အေကာငးႏင အဆးျဖစႏငသည။− A positive output gap would signify an expansion that could

place excessive pressure on resources.− A negative output gap signifies idle resources—low capacity

utilization of capital stock and higher unemployment—that is likely to lead to declining rates of inflation or deflation.

အလားအလာရေသာ ထတလပမႈပမာဏႏငထတလပမႈ ကြာဟခက



39

Positive output gap:demand > supply

Negative output gap:demand < supply



� Q = f (K, L, A)

where K = Capital

L = Labor

A = Technology, Institutions

� In the long run, increasing supply requires increasing A (through structural policies)

40



Production Approach to GDP:

Forecast production in each sector separately as they may have different determinants, then add up the individual forecasts to obtain the total:

41

...,

1,

,

1,

,

1,1 +++=++++

tser

tserser

tman

tmanman

tagr

tagragr

t

t

GDP

GDPw

GDP

GDPw

GDP

GDPw

GDP

GDP



� GDP = (CP + CG) + (IP + IG) + (X – M)

� We should be able to forecast public consumption and

investment (CG & IG) using information from the budget.

� We might be able to construct forecast equations for

exports and imports (X – M) [External sector]

�Private consumption (CP) is often fairly steady and not

that difficult to forecast

�Leaves private investment (IP) as a very difficult element

to forecast because this tends to be fairly volatile

42

Fiscal sector BOP



43

ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈက ခန႔မနးျခငးသညအဘယေၾကာင အေရးပါသနညး။• ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈခန႔မနးျခငးသည တျခားအရာမား ေစးႏႈနးခန႔မနးျခငး၏ အစျဖစသည။ ဥပမာ - GDP deflator• ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈက ထနးခပျခငးသည တငးျပည စးပြားေရးရညမနးခက၏အဓကအခကျဖစျပး ၄ငးတြငေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈ ခန႔မနးျခငးလအပသည။

Uses only past data on CPI or inflation as input …

လအပခက :

� တကေသာCPIအခကလက� အခကလကစစစရနအေျခခ

နညးေကာငးကး :

� ရးရငးသည� ေရတတြင ခန႔မနးခကက

မရနခကခသညဆးကး :

� ေငြေၾကးမဝါဒတညေဆာကမႈအတြက အသးမဝငပါ

� တညေဆာကပ အပငးစမားသည အဓကျပသနာျဖစသည

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Probably not too bad as a forecast, but …

• arbitrary ယဆခကအေပၚတြငမတညသည။• ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈျဖစရျခငးစစစရာတြင အသးမဝငပါ။

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Trend CPI in Myanmar (Example)

CPI (Index, eop) Trendline



� Core vs non-core inflation

(e.g., non-food vs food inflation)

� Overall demand conditions� ေငြလႏႈနး� သြငးကနေစးႏႈနး� ေမာမနးခက

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Uses only past data on CPI or inflation and its components as input …

Requires:� Reliable CPI data

on headline inflation and its components

� Basic techniques in data analysis / Excel skills

Advantage:� Simple� InformativeDisadvantage:� It is still silent on

role of monetary policy for inflation

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48

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Contributions of Food and Non-Food Inflation

Non-food

Food

Inflation (eop)



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When data is not extensively available --Inertial Approach (with judgmental adjustment):

• How and why would inflation rate be different from the previous year?

X: judgmental adjustment

Expected cost pressures:

World trade prices, exchange rate changes, wages, indirect taxes

Expected policy and other demand changes:

Changes in fiscal or monetary policy stance, slowdown in consumption due to rising unemployment, negative expectations

1t t tXπ π −= +



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Real

Consumption × Consumption

Deflator =

Nominal

Consumption

Real Investment ×

Investment Deflator

= Nominal

Investment

Real Exports ×

Export Deflator

= Nominal

Exports

−Real Imports ×

Import Deflator

= −Nominal

Imports

Real GDP Nominal GDP

Nominal GDPGDP Deflator 100

Real GDP= ×



Decomposing GDP deflator into its components

%∆PGDP= WC %∆PC + WI %∆PI

+ WX %∆PX - WM %∆PM

WC = GDP ရ စားသးမႈေဝစWI = GDP ရ ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈေဝစWX = GDP ရ ပ႔ကနေဝစWM = GDP ရ သြငးကနေဝစ

GDP Deflator က ခန႔မနးျခငး

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� စားသးမႈ : %∆ PC = %∆ CPI� ရငးႏးျမပႏမႈ : %∆ PI = (1-a) %∆ CPI + a %∆ PM

(a = share of imported investment goods)

� ပ႔ကန :%∆ PX = ((1+%∆ Export price in US$/100) *(1+%∆ Exchange rate/100) –1) *100

� သြငးကန :%∆ PM = ((1+%∆ Import price in US$/100) *(1+%∆ Exchange rate/100) –1) *100

Deflator အစတပငးက ခန႔မနးျခငး

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� Real GDP တးတကမႈက ခန႔မနးျခငး� ေစးႏႈနးခန႔မနးျခငး◦ CPI◦ Sub-components of GDP deflators (CG, IP , IG)◦ GDP deflator

� Compute nominal GDP growth, using

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t+1 tValuet+1 = Valuet× (1+%∆P) × (1+%∆Q)



� CONGRATULATIONS!

� You are now well on your way to forecasting GDP and Inflation on

your OWN!

� Thank you!

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Documents

Myanmasa Analyzing the Real Sector; IMF TAOLAM training ... · “Introduction to Financial Programming” December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar ... က ႑ Central Bank of Myanmar