National Hurricane Conference

Navy Priorities and Initiatives for Tropical Cyclone Research

Robert S. Winokur

Technical Director

Oceanographer of the Navy

March 2008

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Key Discussion Points for Today

• Implications of new Maritime Strategy– Africa Partnership Station

• Initiatives and priorities related to Tropical Cyclone Research– RTPs– NPOESS– NUOPC

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Maritime Strategy Oct 2007“A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”

• Six key tasks or strategic imperatives:– Regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task

forces to limit regional conflict– Deter major power war– Win our Nation’s wars as part of a joint campaign– Contribute to homeland defense in depth– Foster and sustain cooperative relationships

with more international partners– Prevent or mitigate disruptions or crises

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Maritime Strategy – Implications for Naval Oceanography

• Warfighting readiness:– Environmental support globally– Leverage R&D initiatives to ensure warfighting benefits– Manage risk and understand uncertainty of predictions

• Partnership building– National and international relationships to advance

common national interests and global maritime security

• Humanitarian assistance and disaster response– Rapid and sustained non-combatant evacuations– Potential impacts of climate change on

natural disasters, social instability and regional crises

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Africa Partnership Station

• One of a series to build maritime safety and security in Africa

• Focus on Gulf of Guinea• Aligned with broad international and US

non-military objectives• NOAA involvement:

– Fisheries, meteorology, hydrography– NOAA Pirata buoy

• HSV Swift, USS FT. McHenry• Training for nine African nations

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Rapid Transition Process (RTP)

• Meeting the challenge of timely integration and transition from Research (6.2) to Operations (6.4)

• Oceanographer of the Navy / Office of Naval Research / Commander Naval METOC Command

/ Program Executive Office• Rapid 3-4 year transition• Consistent with CNO Strategic Plan• Good Science – Clear Impact – Navy Relevance

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RTPs Applied to Tropical Cyclones

DIRECT• FY 2001: Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Model

Forecasts• FY 2002: Modeling Tropical Cyclone Structure and

Track

INDIRECT• FY 2006: 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather

Prediction• FY 2007: Quantifying Uncertainty through Global

and Mesoscale Models• FY 2008: High Resolution NOGAPS

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4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction

• 4D assimilation provides a continuous picture of the atmosphere over the observation time

• Provides a consistent framework for observations of cloud, precipitation, water vapor, ozone and aerosols affecting model temperature, humidity and wind fields

• Particularly relevant in data rich NPOESS era

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Quantifying Uncertainty through Global and Mesoscale Models

• Global - mesoscale ensemble forecasting system

• Provide high-fidelity, dynamically consistent probabilistic forecasts and estimates of uncertainty

• Direct support to Tactical decision Aids (TDA)• Indirect but important enhancement to TC

forecasts

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High Resolution NOGAPS

• Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

• Increased resolution will improve capability to assimilate observations and predict finer scale features such as TCs

• Proposed development- 27 km horizontal resolution (current 50 km)- 60 vertical levels (current 30 levels)- semi-Lagrangian moisture advection

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• NPOESS Next-Generation Sensors and applications to Tropical Cyclone research, modeling, and predictability

• Includes associated algorithm development at Navy Centrals (FNMOC and NAVOCEANO), and Ground Segments/ IDPS (Interface Data Processing Segment)– IDPS Installs at FNMOC Monterey and NAVOCEANO

(completed by November 2012), improving time latency and direct ingest into 4DVAR NOGAPS

• METOP, NPP Exploitation

Improving Quality, Quantity, and Time Latency of Remotely Sensed Data Critical to improved diagnosis of intensity change, location of

TC Center, and better track/landfall forecasts.

NPOESS

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• NPOESS Sensors with TC Applications for USN include:

– Improved Imaging (VIIRS, MIS)– Improved retrievals and soundings (CrIS/ATMS), with more

channels and higher vertical resolution– Hyperspectral capability (CrIS)– Possibility of passive ocean surface wind vectors – Improved hurricane ocean heat content products (NAVO)

• NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Web Page (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html)

– Host imagery products– Currently includes WINDSAT, AMSU, AMSR– Will likely include METOP, NPP, NPOESS derived products

NPOESS Sensors

SSM/I 37 GHz H-Pol

WindSat 37 GHz H-Pol

NPOESS Sensors: TC Structure

MIS Sensor: IMAGERYIf based on WINDSAT design (large antenna), then resolution at all frequencies is improved overSSMI

Compare 37GHz images to the right, note improved resolution, and thus enhanced TC Structure, with WINDSAT 37GHz

Note structure of spiral bands, inner core, and double eye wall

Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500

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Upper-LevelCirculation

Lower-LevelCirculation ~200km SE

Examples of low-level TC structure, location of center revealed through reflected moonlight algorithm using the DMSP Operational Linescan System

[OLS]—plan to exploit this capability further with VIIRS Channels

NPOESS: VIIRS Potential - Nighttime Visible

Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey

Code 7500

Notice IR image (left) and nighttime visible (right) in the cases of Georgette (top) and

Flossie (Bottom)

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National Unified Operational Prediction CapabilityPartnership (NUOPC)

• Established to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system,

• Integration of on-going efforts coordinated by a tri-agency management organization

NUOPC

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NUOPC Vision (2015)

• Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs

• National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)

• Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble

– Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather– Mission Specific ensemble products

• National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

FocusedR & D

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The NUOPC Partnership

• Coordinated technology development for future systems

• Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level

• Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC)

• Prioritization of common operational needs

• Aligned transition processes

• Joint ensemble system with managed diversity– Share operational computing costs

– Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications

– Significant acceleration in operational performance

• Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group

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Role of the Meteorological Community

• Participation in committees defining NUOPC concepts and plans:– Common Model Architecture Committee– Technology Transition Processes Committee– Unified Ensemble Operations Committee (Information

Assurance Panel)

• Support national research and development Agenda – R&D community involvement

• Support developmental standards and

contribute to research needs of the

operational community.

Developmental Test Center

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Where We Are Today

• Two-year Phase I approved by Agency Principals• Full operational capability by 2015 with early IOC

for select phases• Memorandum of Agreement drafted• Initial implementation plan and concept of

operations developed• Interim Project Manager selected• Committee process approved• Requesting nominations for interim committees• Town hall session at AMS• Scheduling a follow on outreach meeting with

other Federal agencies (FAA, NASA, NSF, etc.) to provide update and reaffirm support

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In SummaryNavy Remains Committed

• New Maritime Strategy – Cooperative relationships and humanitarian assistance

• Parntnership building• Joint programs – NUOPC• Transition from research to operations –

RTPS• Preparing for NPOESS• Reduce uncertainty in forecasts