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NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013. UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability. Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5 th October 2007. Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, Cenv - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NBS-3B1Y Strategic Corporate Sustainability 10th December 2013
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CenvReader Emeritus in Environmental Sciences [email protected]
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal5th October 2007
1
UK Energy Futures: The Triple Challenges of Energy Security, Climate Change and Affordability
2
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km• Red line outlines extent for reference• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
Is Global Warming natural or man-made?
Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.
Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.
BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement
3
Temperature variations in last 160 years
www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm
4
5
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKUntil 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas.
Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.
Import Gap
In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight.
In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days supply available.
Reduction because of switch back to coal
6
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Energy Review
2002
9th May 2011 (*)
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-
50%)Available now (but gas
is running out)~2p +
8.0p[5 - 11]
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
?
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Bil
lion
cu
bic
met
res
Actual UK production
Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand
Import Gap
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UKGas Production and Demand in UK
Only 50% now provided by UK sources.
Warning issued on 17th April 2012 that over-reliance on
Norway and imported LNG from Qatar will lead to price
rises by end of year
Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.
UK no longer self sufficient
in gas
Langeled Line to Norway
Oil reaches $130 a barrel
Severe Cold Spells
8Per capita Carbon Emissions
UK
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
France
9
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
UK
France
Mean Daily Electricity Generation in November
InterconnectorsOtherHydroWindOilCoalCCGTNuclear
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Interconnectors 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 4.0% 5.6%
Other 0% 0% 0% 1.5% 0.9%
Hydro 2.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2%
Wind 1.3% 1.7% 4.2% 5.3% 7.0%
Oil 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Coal 27% 37% 43.5% 46.3% 38.4%
CCGT 49.7% 41.8% 32.9% 25.0% 26.6%
Nuclear 18.3% 15.7% 15.6% 16.7% 19.2%
Daily Electricity Generation in November
12Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita)
How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
12
UKFrance
World Average
Saudi Arabia
13
How does electricity consumption vary between countries?
• Why do very similar countries (e.g. Norway and Sweden) have very different levels of consumption?
• What environmental impact might these differences have?
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
14
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Fuel Approximate emission factor
per kWh
Comments
Coal ~900 – 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station
Oil ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station
Gas (Steam) ~600g Conventional Steam Station
Gas (CCGT) ~400g Most modern may be as low as 380g
Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type
Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro
• Transmission/Distribution losses • UK ~ 8%: Saudi Arabia 9%: India ~ 24%
Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix
15
CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)
15
France
UK
Saudi Arabia
Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh
World Average 0.550
Saudi Arabia
16
Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries
16
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro/ Tidal/Wave
Other Renewables
Biofuels/Waste
17
Conventional Generation of Electricity
Diagram illustrates situation with conventional generation using coal, oil, gas or nuclear
Overall efficiency ~ 35%
Largest loss in Power Station
1.0 Unit
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Energy Review
2002
9th May 2011 (*)
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-
50%)Available now (but gas
is running out)~2p +
8.0p[5 - 11]
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and
falling)
new inherently safe designs - some
development needed2.5 - 3.5p
7.75p [5.5 - 10]
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until
2050 for significant impact
"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but
scheduled to fall
Available now: Not viable without Carbon
Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p
[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely
before 2025
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2009
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
In
sta
lled
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.
?
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee
1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro)
5%technically mature, but
limited potential2.5 - 3p
11p for <2MW projects
22
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 20 - 40%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro)
5%technically mature, but
limited potential2.5 - 3p
11p for <2MW projects
Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
Photovoltaic<<5% even
assuming 10 GW of installation
available, but much further research needed to bring down
costs significantly15+ p
25p +/-8 11-13p (2013 projection)
23
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002
(Gas ~ 2p)May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro)
5%technically mature, but
limited potential2.5 - 3p
11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly
15+ p 25p +/-8
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification
2.5 - 4p7 - 13p
depending on technology
24
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
20 - 40%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
No sound on video
25
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
20 - 40%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007
Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013
Video of device
There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device
Video of device
There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device
ScotRenewablesFloating device
26
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs
In Orkney – Churchill Barriers
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.
Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%
technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.
In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development
26p +/-5
27
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW
(~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p Tidal 26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
28
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW
(~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p Tidal 26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
29
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
30
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another
31
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
Existing Coal
Existing Nuclear
Oil
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
H (b
illio
ns o
f uni
ts (k
Wh)
)
Existing Coal
UK GasImported Gas
New Nuclear?
New Coal ?
Existing Nuclear
Other Renewables
Offshore WindOnshore Wind
Oil
Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
• Limited electric cars or heat pumps
Version suitable for Office 2007 & 2010
Fracked Gas
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
32
Sustainable Options for the future?Energy Generation•Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses
•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation
• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).
• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!
• Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012
• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer
• Approximate annual estimate of generation
= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095
hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%
33
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Raising Awareness
34
Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
35
Conclusions• Hard Choices face the UK in the next 5 years
• Contrary to popular belief, support for renewables has been responsible for less than 10% of rise in bills in last 8 years.
• Increases in fossil fuel prices has been much more significant factor and will continue to do so.
• Headlines following publication of Energy Bill last week suggest bills will include £100 in support of nuclear and renewables,
– But fossil fuel prices are likely to rise substantially
– |Doing nothing will mean that bills will be more by 2020 than they otherwise would be.
• Lack of forward planning in the past, Energy Security is now a critical issue - only Wind (Onshore and Offshore) and potentially INSECURE gas can plug the gap post 2015.
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."