Ondřej Nývlt, Ilona Nováková, Lukáš Savko

CZECH STATISTICAL OFFICE | Na padesátém 81, 100 82 Prague 10 | czso.cz 1/16

Ondřej Nývlt, Ilona Nováková, Lukáš Savko

EFFECTIVE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE OVER TIME AS WELL AS OVER SPACE WITH RELATION TO MONTHLY PROCESSING IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC


Sampling frame - the register of inhabited dwellings (Census Area

Register), no relation to register of persons in case of the Czech

Republic – law restriction

Sampling method – two stages: 1st stage – randomized systematic sample of Census Areas in

NUTS4 (probability of inclusion proportional to number of permanently inhabited dwellings in C.A.)

2nd stage – random sample of selected dwellings

Fixed distribution according to size of municipalities in NUTS4

SAMPLING FRAME PROCEDURE


■ In particular quarters the scheme of Census areas according to the NUTS4 and

reference weeks

■ The size of municipality or degree of urbanisation are not a part of rotation

scheme

■ The rotation scheme is not strictly given, is adapted according to demand of field

workers (fieldwork strategy)

Rules and checks for rotation scheme

■ to check the minimum and maximum of surveyed census areas according to

reference weeks and NUTS4 or NUTS3 or to compute dispersion

■ in repeated visits in the households the possibility to switch the reference

weeks +1

■ Evaluation – feedback, reports

ROTATION SCHEME


ROTATION SCHEME – ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS

550

650

400

400

300

400

300

300

300

300

550

300

300

600

5650

13

43

50

31

30

24

30

23

23

23

23

43

23

23

46

435

12

43

50

31

30

23

31

23

23

23

23

43

23

23

46

435

11

43

50

31

31

23

30

23

23

23

23

42

23

23

46

434

10

42

50

31

31

23

31

23

23

23

23

42

23

24

46

435

9

42

50

31

31

23

31

23

23

23

23

42

23

23

46

434

8

42

50

30

31

23

31

23

23

24

23

42

23

23

47

435

7

42

50

30

31

23

31

23

24

23

23

42

23

23

47

435

6

42

50

31

31

23

31

23

23

23

23

42

23

23

46

434

5

42

50

31

31

23

31

23

23

23

24

42

23

23

46

435

4

42

50

30

31

23

31

24

23

23

23

42

23

23

46

434

3

42

50

31

30

23

31

23

23

23

23

43

24

23

46

435

2

42

50

31

31

23

31

23

23

23

23

43

23

23

46

435

1

43

50

31

31

23

30

23

23

23

23

42

23

23

46

434

hl.m.Praha

Středočeský

Jihočeský

Plzeňský

Karlovarský

Ústecký

Liberecký

Královéhradecký

Pardubický

Vysočina

Jihomoravský

Olomoucký

Zlínský

Moravskoslezský

ČR celkem

NUTS 3 TotalReference weeks (1st quarter)


ROTATION SCHEME – REAL ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREASEXAMPLE

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13.

5101 51 70 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 0,24 15102 51 65 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 0,15 25103 51 111 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 0,25 15104 51 54 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 0,13 1

51 300 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 22 0,22 25201 52 89 6 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 0,28 25202 52 45 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 3 4 3 3 0,40 25203 52 64 5 6 4 5 6 5 6 4 6 4 4 4 5 0,69 25204 52 45 4 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 0,40 25205 52 57 4 4 5 4 3 4 6 4 3 6 4 5 5 0,85 3

52 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 15301 53 61 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 0,52 25302 53 98 7 7 9 7 7 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 0,56 25303 53 69 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 0,21 15304 53 72 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 0,25 1

53 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1.

Total 5650 434 435 435 435 433 434 436 437 433 435 435 435 433 1,31 4

Dispersion Max-min

Allocation of census areas accoding to NUTS4 - 2013q4

Reference weeksNUTS4 NUTS3 Total CA


■ Reference months in quarterly distribution (4-5-4)

■ How to ensure regular distribution of census areas according to size of municipality or degree of urbanization to particular months?

■ Problems with remote municipalities in the wintertime

■ In the Czech Republic only recommendation in case for size of municipality for fieldwork – is it sufficient?

MONTHLY ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS


ROTATION SCHEME

REAL ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS ACCORDING TO DEGREE OF URBANIZATION – 2013Q1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

.52 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1

Densely 54 5 6 4 5 4 2 4 6 3 1 5 3 6 2,28 5Intermediate 120 8 9 11 13 6 9 6 12 9 11 8 7 11 4,64 7

Thinly 126 10 8 8 5 13 12 13 6 11 11 10 13 6 7,44 8

53 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1Densely 30 3 1 2 0 4 2 1 0 1 4 4 4 4 2,37 4

Intermediate 114 9 9 7 8 6 7 11 10 9 7 11 10 10 2,49 5Thinly 156 11 13 14 15 13 15 11 13 13 12 8 9 9 4,77 7

.

NUTS3Degree of

urbanizationNumber

of CA

Reference weekDispersion Max-min


ROTATION SCHEME

REAL ALLOCATION OF CENSUS AREAS ACCORDING TO SIZE OF MUNICIPALITY (IN PERSONS)– 2013Q1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

.52 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 1

0-999 72 6 4 5 3 8 7 6 5 7 7 5 5 4 1,94 51000-9999 90 5 6 6 5 8 7 9 3 6 12 7 12 4 6,99 910000-49999 84 7 7 8 10 3 7 4 10 7 3 6 3 9 5,94 7

50000+ 54 5 6 4 5 4 2 4 6 3 1 5 3 6 2,28 5

53 Total 300 23 23 23 23 23 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 0,07 10-999 90 10 11 9 6 5 10 6 6 7 7 4 4 5 5,15 7

1000-9999 94 2 4 7 12 10 7 11 10 9 5 6 6 5 8,18 1010000-49999 86 8 7 5 5 4 5 5 7 6 7 9 9 9 2,85 5

50000+ 30 3 1 2 0 4 2 1 0 1 4 4 4 4 2,37 4.

NUTS3Size of

municipalityNumber

of CA

Reference weekDispersion Max-min


■ Great differences in unemployment rates

■ City environment brings the working opportunities

ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ACCORDING TO DEGREE OF URBANIZATION

The unemployment rate, age group 15-74 years (%) in the Czech Republic (2011-2013)


■ Relatively low unemployment in the small municipalities (below 1 thousand residents)

ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ACCORDING TO SIZE OF MUNICIPALITY

The unemployment rate, age group 15-74 years (%) in the Czech Republic (2011-2013)


■ In the last two years the growth of unemployment rate in cities

ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYMENT ACCORDING TO REGIONAL STRUCTURE

The employment rate, age group 15-74 years (%) according to degree of urbanization in the Czech Republic (2011-2013)


Quarterly sample – approximately 80 % overlapping from quarter

to quarter and 20 % overlapping from year to year

Monthly sample – mostly zero overlapping from month to month,

higher stability in comparison m and m+3 – 80 % overlapping

Result – in monthly processing, it is not suitable to use monthly

raw data (using of Regression Estimation Model in the Czech

Republic)

STABILITY OF THE SAMPLE IN THE MONTHLY PROCESSING


■ Average of absolute differences for the mentioned period is 0,5 for month to month comparison and 0,4 for month to month+3 comparison


The absolute differences (in percentage points) in rate of unemployment in the Czech Republic (2012-2013)


■ Average of absolute differences for the mentioned period is 0,6 for month to month comparison and 0,4 for month to month+3 comparison


The absolute differences (in percentage points) in rate of employment in the Czech Republic (2012-2013)


■ What is better indicator for regional details, generally?

■ Size of municipality

■ Degree of urbanization

■ The strict rotation scheme versus recommendation

■ Recommendation - checks, report, feedback from LFS experts

■ Strict scheme – maybe higher financial expenses

■ Is it possible to have the urban x rural distribution of census areas

according to reference weeks?

■ Can any regression model ensure the stability of monthly results?

CONCLUSION


Thank you for your attention

Documents

Ondřej Nývlt, Ilona Nováková, Lukáš Savko