People science environment partners TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:...
45
people Ÿ science Ÿ environment Ÿ partners TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Director Policy, Economics, and Social Sciences WorldFish Center, Penang FAME Workshop, University Of Southern Denmark June 2005
People science environment partners TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS
people science environment partners TRENDS & PROSPECTS FOR
AQUACULTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY
IN CHANGING GLOBAL MARKETS Mahfuzuddin Ahmed Director Policy,
Economics, and Social Sciences WorldFish Center, Penang FAME
Workshop, University Of Southern Denmark June 2005
Slide 2
people science environment partners Presentation Outline
Introduction Putting Aquaculture in Context Concerns in Aquaculture
Development Aquaculture & Food Security in Developing Countries
Role of Environmental Practices & Policies in Aquaculture Role
of International Trade & Trade Policies Aquaculture R & D
Conclusion
Slide 3
people science environment partners Introduction 1.1 billion
live with
people science environment partners $ Fish > $ Rice + $
Coffee Vietnams Agricultural Export FISH ONE OF THE BIGGEST TRADE
STORIES Introduction
Slide 8
people science environment partners Outlook to 2020 Escalating
Demand for Fish in Developing Countries Introduction
Slide 9
people science environment partners Per Capita Demand for Fish
Products, 1997-2020 (kg/cap) Outlook to 2020 Introduction
Slide 10
people science environment partners 69%31% 59%41% 52%48% 65%35%
49%51% WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS? Growing share of aquaculture to the
total food fish production Putting Aquaculture in Context
Slide 11
people science environment partners Putting Aquaculture in
Context Low value food fish from aquaculture is expected to surpass
the capture fisheries in the future WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Slide 12
people science environment partners WHY AQUACULTURE MATTERS?
Developing countries continue to dominate food fish production with
a high proportion in aquaculture 27% 73% 21%79% 20%80% 23%77%
22%78% Putting Aquaculture in Context
Slide 13
people science environment partners Ahmed and Lorica, 2002 WHY
AQUACULTURE MATTERS? Aquaculture has grown faster and become more
important in low income food deficit countries (LIFDC) Putting
Aquaculture in Context
Slide 14
people science environment partners Net Export: Developing
World Continue to be Net Exporters, though at a Lower Rate than
Presently Source: Fish to 2020 Putting Aquaculture in Context
Slide 15
people science environment partners Outlook to 2020 More
Regions in Developing Countries Joining the Rank of Net Importers
by 2020 Growing south-south trade Putting Aquaculture in
Context
Slide 16
people science environment partners Poor to Feel the Pinch of
Rising Fish Prices Fish meal & oil efficiency Ecological
collapse Slower aquaculture expansion Faster aquaculture expansion
Most likely (current trend) Outlook to 2020 Putting Aquaculture in
Context
Slide 17
people science environment partners Putting Aquaculture in
Context Environmental Context Dependence on the wild for species
and seedlings for culture Dependence on fisheries for feeds and
feed ingredients Socio-economic Context Resource users and
stakeholders and their varying interests Costs and benefits of the
aquaculture enterprise Domestic and international demand for
aquaculture commodities Legal and Institutional Context Property
rights Regulations and standards
Slide 18
people science environment partners Concerns in Aquaculture
Development at Various levels Local High influence of income on
fish consumption and similar nutritious food, though nutritional
status may not necessarily improve as income increases Increasing
labor productivity Increasing global demand for food supply
Increasing consumer awareness and demands Increasing competition
for resources
Slide 19
people science environment partners Concerns in Aquaculture
Development National Food security Export Earning Intersectoral
Conflict Environmental Sustainability Increasing seafood imports
and decreasing prices Increasing nutrient and input costs
Slide 20
people science environment partners Concerns in Aquaculture
Development Global Environmental and ecological responsibility Use
of technology to produce transgenic fish Social acceptance as an
economically viable means of producing much needed high quality
food for an ever increasing and hungry population Market access /
barriers in trade Health and safety issues Capture-Culture
Relationship
Slide 21
people science environment partners Aquaculture and Food
Security in Developing Countries LESSONS FROM ASIA Aquaculture is
regarded worldwide as one of the fastest growing food-producing
sub- sectors, especially in low-income food deficit (LIFDC)
countries Asia accounted for over 90% of world aquaculture output
in 1998, regional production having increased from 14.3 million mt
to over 35.8 million mt between 1989 and 1998, equivalent to growth
of nearly 11% per year (FAOSTAT, 2003)
Slide 22
people science environment partners Aquaculture and Food
Security in Developing Countries LESSONS FROM ASIA In Asia, major
contributors to aquaculture are small-scale family managed fish
farm and subsistence-oriented farmers Global importance for rural
and coastal societies, both in terms of economy and as a means of
improving food security for the growing population Effect of own
production on household fish consumption Moving away from cereals
and crop commodity supply Income and employment effects on poor
people, women and children
Slide 23
people science environment partners AQUACULTURES LINK TO FOOD
SECURITY Figure2: Framework for Analyzing Aquacultures Linkages to
Food & Nutritional Security ADOPTION- EMPLOYMENT LINK ADOPTION-
CONSUMPTION LINK Ability to create alternative employment Ability
to increase labor productivity Ability to earn higher wage or
income High income effect from aquaculture production and
sale-profit High home- consumption Price effect and increased
demand ADOPTION- INCOME LINK High income effect on nutrient rich
food consumption Source: Ahmed et al. (2002) in press Higher return
to capital from aquaculture Aquaculture and Food Security in
Developing Countries
Slide 24
people science environment partners FOOD SECURITY THROUGH
AQUACULTURE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FROM BANGLADESH In Bangladesh,
nearly half the population suffer from chronic under nutrition
Green revolution overlooked the role of diversified production,
employment and income Role of critical vitamins and minerals in the
diet, improvements in sanitation, hygiene and living environment
Improving access to diverse and quality food types Moving away from
cereals and crop commodity supply perspective Integration of fish
and livestock in discussion and debate on food security Examine
aquacultures impact to food and nutritional security at the farm
and household level Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing
Countries
Slide 25
people science environment partners ADOPTION INCOME LINKAGES
Income and purchasing power have a tremendous influence on
household demand for food Income has high influence on fish
consumption and other nutritional food Though, nutritional status
may not necessarily improve as income increases Aquaculture and
Food Security in Developing Countries: Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 26
people science environment partners INCOME EFFECTS Higher
Household Income Following Aquaculture Intervention Source of
IncomeBefore Aquaculture After Aquaculture Intervention
Intervention Farm income (excluding fish)15,74718,388 Income from
fish culture7585,053 Off-farm income10,86913,884 Total
income27,37437,325 Contribution of fish to farm income (%)4.621.6
Contribution of fish to total income (%)2.813.5 Source: Gupta, et
al. (1999) Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 27
people science environment partners Household ability to earn
income depends on the nutritional health of the household labor
Family labor is an important production factor in developing
country agriculture Ability to earn higher wage or income Ability
to create higher employment Increase in labor productivity ADOPTION
EMPLOYMENT LINKAGES Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing
Countries: Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 28
people science environment partners EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS
Relatively low use of labor in aquaculture compared to crop
agriculture Post-adoption labor/ employment in aquaculture is much
higher than pre- adoption Use of hired labor is also becoming
common in aquaculture Impact of Aquaculture Practices in Employment
Source: Miah (2000) Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing
Countries: Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 29
people science environment partners Wage Rate (Tk/day) of Pond
Aquaculture and Agriculture Compared 1998 Source: Thompson et al
(2000) & BBS (1999) Higher return to labor (Tk/day) from
technology adoption in aquaculture Source: Islam (2000) EMPLOYMENT
EFFECTS Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 30
people science environment partners Adopting households consume
a disproportionately higher amount of fish that are rich in
micro-nutrient Adoption of aquaculture increases market supply that
pushes fish prices down ADOPTION CONSUMPTION LINKAGES Aquaculture
and Food Security in Developing Countries: Lessons from
Bangladesh
Slide 31
people science environment partners CONSUMPTION EFFECTS
Increased access to fish in both rural and urban areas in last five
years higher per capita consumption for producer households
compared to non-producers and national average consumption Price
and income elasticity of fish are higher than those of other food
items Consumer demand for fish will increase at a higher rate for
income increase and supply increase Adoption of improved pond
management and species composition will direct more fish to on-farm
household consumption Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing
Countries: Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 32
people science environment partners Comparison of Production
and Home Consumption Before and After Adoption of Improved
Aquaculture in Kapasia Thana, Bangladesh Source: 1. Ahmed, et al.
19932. Ahmed, et al. 1995 3. Extrapolated estimate by the authors
based on the proportion disposed for the consumption. CONSUMPTION
EFFECTS Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing Countries:
Lessons from Bangladesh
Slide 33
people science environment partners POLICY ISSEUS FOR FOOD
SECURITY & POVERTY REDUCTION Aquaculture development: is it a
panacea for poverty reduction? Much of reported increase of
aquaculture come from low-income food deficit countries How much
can aquaculture contribute to poverty reduction? There are
opportunities as well as constraints Can the constraints be removed
through policy measures and policy actions? Aquaculture and Food
Security in Developing Countries
Slide 34
people science environment partners ACCESS TO RESOURCES Access
to land is a major impediment for poor richer people established
greater access to land and water that were brought under
aquaculture Liberal government policies encouraged large-scale
conversion of public land by the rich Forced the poor out of common
property fish harvest from public water or quasi-private land
Targeted development by NGOs and government have helped poor people
access land and water Flexible technology choices for more
intensive use of labor Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing
Countries
Slide 35
people science environment partners Source: Thompson et al.
(2000) Percent distribution of households of some aquaculture
projects by size of land owned in Bangladesh in 1998 ACCESS TO
RESOURCES Aquaculture and Food Security in Developing
Countries
Slide 36
people science environment partners Role of Environmental
Practices and Policies in Aquaculture Damaging impacts on the ocean
and coastal resources Interactions of escaped fish stocks with wild
stocks Introduction of exotic species
Slide 37
people science environment partners Role of International Trade
and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development Trade and Market
Expansion significant export orientation and focus on high value
species shift in the balance of trade in fish commodities in favor
of developing countries dependence on few developed country markets
such as the EU, USA and Japan global trade liberalization agenda
vs. different forms of non- tariff barriers resolutions and
agreements on market access issues regulatory measures on health
and food safety requirements, host of other forms of technical
barriers to trade
Slide 38
people science environment partners Role of International Trade
and Trade Policies in Aquaculture Development Trade Policies
Liberalization of trade (UNCTAD WTO) Reduction of import tariff and
import restrictions Free trade agreements Preferential market
access
Slide 39
people science environment partners Trade Barriers Technical
barriers Health, sanitary and food Safety barriers Environmental
regulation Role of International Trade and Trade Policies in
Aquaculture Development
Slide 40
people science environment partners Aquaculture R&D:
Technology Need & Prospect Reducing Aquaculture Dependence on
Capture Fisheries for Feed Nearly one-third of the worlds wild
caught fish is consumed as aquafeed As aquaculture trend increases,
the pressure on wild fish stock increases Technology to replace
aquafeed with nutritious grains and protein rich oilseed Remove the
dependence of aquaculture on wild stock
Slide 41
people science environment partners Aquaculture R&D:
Technology Need & Prospect 2) Increase Productivity in
Aquaculture Selective breeding of Nile tilapia (o.niloticus) in
WorldFish Selective bred Nile tilapia outperformed the most widely
farmed strains of Tilapia in Asia by growth and survival rate 85%
growth increase over six generation Yield improvement of 25-78%,
depending on local conditions
Slide 42
people science environment partners Aquaculture R&D:
Technology Need & Prospect 2) Increase Productivity in
Aquaculture Genetic modification for improving quality and quantity
of fish developed strains of genetically modified salmon for
potential use in cage aquaculture in China and India benefits of
genetic modification includes: survival of endangered species
improve the reproductive success address consumer issue such as
taste and aesthetics comes with significant controversy and
risk
Slide 43
people science environment partners Conclusion Challenge for
aquaculture is to expand production to meet the future shortfall in
fish supplies Greater need for enforcement mechanisms for
sustainable and environmentally safe aquaculture in developing
countries Aquaculture for the Poor Devolution of institutions to
ensure access to resources Equal opportunity to the poor to access
inputs and market
Slide 44
people science environment partners Conclusion Fish for the
poor at affordable prices Semi-intensive and extensive aquaculture
of low value food fish Mass-production of low-value food fish by
small-scale producers Balancing fish trade for the poor Greater
access to export markets, and fair share of benefits for the poor
Inclusion of small-scale producers and women in trade arrangements
Pro-poor technology and policy support Credit and infrastructure
Low-cost and low-input technologies Increased institutional and
infrastructure support for diversification of production and trade
by the poor households
