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2.

• How to win in the markets?
• -> ->
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3. Investing with theKelly criter ion

• The Kelly Criterion is abet-sizingtechnique, which balances bothriskandrewardfor the advantage gambler.
• Kelly Value and Equity Curve of a trading system

4. 5. The Shannon Method

• In the1960 s, Shannon gave a lecture in a hall packed with students and teachers alike in MIT, on the topic of maximizing the growth rate of wealth. He detailed a method on how you can grow your portfolio byrebalancingyour fund between astock andcash , while this stock stays in a random ranging market.

6. Rebalancing Method cash stock 7. Martingale( ) 8.

• (Martingale)
• ( )
• 1 ( ) 2 (21)n 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 ( )

9.

• 110241010
• 1+2+4+8+16+32+54+128+256+512=1023

10.

• There is very simple,BUT HIGHLY EFFECTIVEtechnique. This operation simply consists ofdoubling your bet whenever you lose.

Martingale( ) 11. Traditional European Roulette

• Once wewinwith one color, we will start it all over again betting one on the opposite color until we win again, going on and on time after time.

12. Martingale( )

• IF YOU WIN WITH ONE COLOR, BET ON THE OPPSITE COLOER... IF YOU LOSE; BOUBLE YOUR BETS UNTIL YOU WIN!
• 11
• 2
• 4
• 8
• 1
• 2

13. The following are Monte Carlo simulations by method ofMartingalefor 1000 betting. 14. Martingale( )

• Kelly criterion

15. Anti-Martingale ( )

16. When is the right time to double bet? 17. 18. Anti-Martingale ( )

• Kelly criterion

19. Win twice Double bet

• The players usually increase bets after they win and reduce bets after they lose.(Kelly criterion)
• Kelly criterion

TM 20. Win twice Double bet

TM 21. 22.

• 1 1 2 2 4 4 8 8
• f 0.4142 P G= 0.7071
• F(n) F(n-1)+F(n-2)

Win twice Double bet TM TM 23.

• 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4
• f 0.2599 P G= 0.6299
• F(n) F(n-1)+F(n-2)

Win triple Double bet TM 24.

• N
• 1 12 24 48 8.
• NNNN
• N k
• P G = k/ 2

WinNtimes Double bet TM 25. Kelly log twice triple 26. Fibonacci

• Fibonacci Sequence 1 1 2 3 5 8
• Fibonacci Sequence F(n)->F(n+1) k=1.618 ,
• f0.618 P G =0.809
• F(n) = F(n-1)+F(n-2)

27.

• Kelly formula ( )
• P G =0.8,f= 0.6,k 1 = 1 + f = 1.6 , k 2 = 1 f =0.4
• A.11.61.63841.62.621441.6.
• 1 -> 1.6 ->1.6 -> 1.6 -> 1.6384 -> 2.62144 ->
• W WW L W

28. log 29. Method of Double Betting TM 30. Method of Double BettingI

• 1 \$45 1450
• \$40 2 \$40 -140-5
• \$45 3 \$45 245-15
• \$40 6 \$40 -440-30
• \$45 12 \$45 8 45-40
• \$60 060+80
• 1 \$60160
• 45
• 40

TM 31. Method of Double BettingI

• 1 \$45 1450
• \$40 2 \$40 -140-5
• \$45 3 \$45 245-10
• \$40 6 \$40 -440-20
• \$45 12 \$45 8 45-40
• \$60 060+40
• 45
• 40

TM 45 40 60 32. Method of Double BettingI TM 33. Method of Double BettingI TM 34. Method of Double BettingI TM 35. Method of Double BettingI TM 12/28 8057 36. Method of Double BettingI TM 12/30 8112 37. Method of Double BettingII

• 1 \$501500
• \$52 1 \$52251+2
• \$54 2 \$54452.5+6
• \$56 4 \$56854.25+14
• \$55 4 \$554 54.25+3
• \$57 4 \$57856.25+11
• \$59 8 \$591657.625+22

TM 38. Method of Double BettingIII

• 1 \$30 1300
• \$32 1 \$32 2312
• \$34 2 \$34 4 32.56
• \$33 4 \$33 0332
• \$34
• 1 \$34 0340
• \$36 1 \$36 2352

TM 39. Method of Double BettingIII

• 1 \$30 1300
• \$32 1 \$32 2312
• \$34 2 \$34 4 32.56
• \$33 4 \$33 0332
• \$32
• 1 \$32-1320
• \$30 1 \$30-2312

TM 40. Method of Double BettingIII TM 41. Method of Double BettingIV

• 1 \$30 1 300
• \$32 1 \$32 2 312
• \$34 1 \$34 3 326
• \$33 2 \$33 1 333
• \$32 1 0 2
• \$35 1 \$35234.54

TM 42. 1 2 3 1 0 Method of Double BettingIV TM 43. ->

• 7600
• Plan A: ( )
• 80
• 120
• P = 0.7
• Q = 80/120 = 2/3
• MA = P (Q+1) - 1 > 0 ?

44. W : L = 7 : 3 P G= 0.7 45.

• Plan B
• Plan C
• ..

46. 47. B S B B 48. S S S S S S B S B 49. 50.

• P = 0.5
• Q = 2
• MA = P(Q+1) 1 = 0.5 > 0
• P*=0.75
• 1 1 2 2 4 4 8 8

51. Anthony Bolton 52.

• Anthony Bolton
• 1979 12 2007 1990-2002 2000 2003 2008 9 10 Investing Against the Tide 2008
• 2009/04/29

53.

54. Susan 55.

• Nicolas Darvas 1 1,000 6 1950 4 18 200 How I Made \$2,000,000 In The Stock Market 40

56. 57. TO GAMBLE OR NOT TO GAMBLE 58. We are all gamblers with life

• What moves us on?
• I do not go to the Casino, neither gamble...but while living my own life and watching the common behavior of myself and the others, it often seems to me as act of gambling.
• Casino is not only place where people gamble, we are all gamblers with life. We enter completely unprepared into various life situations, driven by our desires and wishes and cope with the positive and negative consequences of our decisions afterwards, about which we knew nothing at the time when we were choosing them.

Tatjana-Mihaela 59.

• Choose Where You Want toLiveand How to Live.
• Life allows you to make many choices - one of which is where you live. Some say that you can change your place and change your luck: how to win at Life depends on your surroundings.

We are gambling with our lives! 60.

• Simon Cowell : ? : 47 : : ? :

I Dreamed a Dream I Dreamed a Dream 61.

• ( )
• 19 20 20% 80% 80% 20% 80% 20% 80% 20%

62. 20 , , , , , , ,

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