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ThS. Nguyễn Văn Nhật Khoa Tài chính Email: [email protected] LT 1

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  • ThS. Nguyn Vn Nht

    Khoa Ti chnh

    Email: [email protected] LT

    1

  • 1.Qun tr ti sn ngn hn

    2.Hoch nh vn u t

    3.Chnh sch c tc v mua li c phiu

    4.Qun tr ri ro

    5.K hoch ti chnh v d bo ti chnh

    NI DUNG

    2

  • TI LIU THAM KHO

    1. TI CHNH DOANH NGHIP CN BN, TS.

    Nguyn Minh Kiu, NXB Thng k, 2009.

    2. QUN TR TI CHNH, Eugene F. Brigham, Joel F.

    Houston, i hc Florida, dch bi GS.TS Nguyn Th

    Cnh.

    3. QUN TR TI CHNH NGN HN, Nguyn Tn

    Bnh, NXB Thng k, 2010

    4. FUNDAMENTALS OF CORPORATE FINANCE,

    Breadley / Myers / Marcus, McGraw Hill Pub.

    5. CASE STUDIES IN FINANCE, Bruner / Eades /

    Schill, McGraw Hill Pub.

    3

  • 1.1Qun tr tin mt

    1.2Qun tr hng tn kho

    1.3Qun tr n phi thu

    Chng 1

    QUN TR TI SN NGN HN

    4

  • Qun tr tin mt

    1. Nhng l do khin doanh nghip phi

    d tr tin mt?

    2. Nhng u im v hn ch ca vic d

    tr tin mt?

    3. Nn d tr tin mt nh th no cho

    hiu qu nht?

    5

  • 1.1. Qun tr tin mt

    Nhng l do phi gi tin mt?

    1. Giao dch

    2. u c

    3. D phng

    6

  • Thu

    -Tien ban hang

    -Cac khoan n, tam

    ng, thu khac

    Chi

    -Tien mua hang

    -Tien lng

    - Chi ph khac

    au t ngan han

    Cac loai chng khoan kha

    nhng

    7

  • Chi

    ph

    gi

    tie

    n m

    at

    Qui mo tien mat duy tr

    Chi ph giao dch

    Chi ph c hoi

    Tong chi ph gi

    tien mat

    C* C1 C2

    Quyt nh tn qu tin mt

    - Chi ph c hi ca tin

    - Chi ph giao dch chuyn i ti sn u t sang tin

    8

  • Tien mat au ky:

    C = 1,2 ty

    Tien mat cuoi ky: C = 0

    Tien mat bnh quan:

    C/2 = 600 trieu

    1 0 2 3 4 Tuan

    1.1.1. Mo hnh Baumol

    9

  • Tn qu ban

    u C

    Tn qu trung

    bnh C/2

    Chi ph c hi

    K = 10%

    4.800 2.400 240

    2.400 1.200 120

    1.200 600 60

    600 300 30

    300 150 15

    10

  • Tng s tin cn b

    p cho 1 nm (T) Tn qu ban u (C)

    Chi ph giao dch

    (T/C)*F

    31.200 4.800 6,5

    31.200 2.400 13,0

    31.200 1.200 26,0

    31.200 600 52,0

    31.200 300 104,0

    11

  • .min2

    FC

    TK

    CTC

    K

    TFC

    2

    K : Li sut chng khon hng nm F : Chi ph cho mi ln giao dch tin (khng i) T : Tng nhu cu ti mt trong nm

    12

  • Han che cua mo hnh Baumol

    oCong ty ap dung ty le bu ap tien mat khong oi

    oKhong co so thu tien mat trong ky hoach nh

    oKhong co d tr tien mat cho muc ch an toan

    oDong tien te ri rac ch khong phai lien tuc.

    13

  • 1.1.2. Mo hnh Miller - Orr

    H

    L

    Z*

    d

    Lk

    FZ 3

    2..

    4

    3.*

    H* = 3Z* - 2L

    F_ Chi ph giao dch chng khoan

    k Lai suat ngan han (ngy) _ chenh lech dong tien rong hang ngay ( lch chun)

    14

  • 1.1.3. Qun tr thu chi tin mt

    Qun tr tin ang chuyn

    + Tin ang chuyn

    + Chi ph do tin ang chuyn

    u t tin nhn ri

    15

  • Thi iem

    khach hang

    phat hanh

    cheque

    Thi iem

    cong ty nhan

    cheque

    Thi iem

    cong ty nop

    cheque

    Thi iem

    cong ty nhan

    c tien

    Thi gian

    Tre do

    chuyen

    cheque

    Tre do

    x ly

    cheque

    Tre do

    thanh

    toan

    cheque

    Tien ang

    chuyen do

    chuyen

    cheque

    Tien ang

    chuyen do

    x ly

    cheque

    Tien ang

    chuyen do

    thanh

    toan

    cheque

    Tien ang

    chuyen do thu

    Qua trnh thu nhan, x ly va thanh toan cheque

    16

  • Minh hoa cach xac nh ton that do tien ang chuyen

    Gia s Cong ty ABC nhan hai khoan thanh toan moi thang nh sau:

    So tien Ty trong So ngay cham tre

    Tien ang chuyen

    Khoan th 1 500.000.000 5/8 3 1.500.000.000

    Khoan th 2 300.000.000 3/8 5 1.500.000.000

    Tong cong 800.000.000 3.000.000.000

    Xac nh ton that rong do cham tre thanh toan hang nam cua cong ty ABC

    17

  • Giai :

    So thu bnh quan hang ngay = 800.000.000 / 30 = 26.666.667

    ong

    Tien ang chuyen bnh quan hang ngay = 3.000.000.000 / 30 =

    100.000.000 ong

    So ngay cham tre bnh quan = (5/8)*3 + (3/8)*5 = 3,75 ngay

    Gia s lai suat vay ngan hang la 10%/nam, lai qui ra cho ky han

    3,75 ngay se la: 0,1(3,75/365) = 0,00103

    Hien gia cua so thu bnh quan hang ngay = (26.666.667) / (1 +

    0,00103) = 26.639.229 ong

    Ton that rong do cham tre thanh toan hang ngay = 26.639.229 -

    26.666.667 = - 27.438 ong

    Ton that rong do cham tre thanh toan hang nam = - 27.438x365

    = - 10.014.870 ong.

    18

  • 1.2. Qun tr hng tn kho

    1.2.1. ac iem hang ton kho

    Vai tro:

    -am bao hoat ong SX c lien tuc

    -Tang chi ph

    Nhng nhan to anh hng:

    -Loai hnh DN

    -Tnh chat cua qui trnh san xuat

    -Chi ph at hang, chi ph lu kho

    -Lam phat, lai suat

    19

  • 1.2.2. Mo hnh quan ly hang ton kho hieu qua EOQ

    (economic odering quantity)

    Xac nh lng at hang toi u

    Q*

    C

    F

    TC

    C

    FSQ

    ..2*

    S - Tong lng hang tieu thu trong ky

    F - Chi ph cho moi lan at hang

    C - Chi ph lu kho moi n v hang

    Q

    20

  • Xac nh iem at hang lai

    t

    Q

    Qt

    21

  • 1.3. Qun tr n phi thu

    Chnh sach ban chu

    Li nhuan tang?

    Ra quyet nh

    Theo doi, quan ly n

    Tang doanh thu

    Tang khoan

    phai thu khach

    hang tang chi ph

    22

  • 1.3.1. Xay dng chnh sach ban chu

    Tieu chuan ban chu:

    -ng x cua khach hang

    -Von t co

    -Kha nang tra n

    -Tai san the chap

    -Kinh te v mo

    ieu khoan ban chu:

    -Thi han ban chu

    -Chnh sach chiet khau

    23

  • Gia s rang gia ban san pham cua cong ty ABC Ltd. la 10$/ n v,

    trong o chi ph kha bien trc thue la 8$.

    Hien tai cong ty hoat ong cha het cong suat nen s gia tang

    doanh thu khong oi hoi phai gia tang chi ph co nh.

    Doanh thu hang nam cua cong ty hien tai la 2,4 trieu $. Neu ni

    long chnh sach ban chu, doanh thu ky vong tang 25%.

    Gia s rang n gia hang ban khong thay oi va chi ph c hoi thc

    hien khoan phai thu tang them la 20%.

    Phan tch xem cong ty ABC co nen ni long tieu chuan ban chu

    san pham hay khong? Biet rang ky thu tien bnh quan cua khach

    hang mi tang them la 2 thang.

    Quyet nh tieu chuan ban chu

    24

  • Gia s rang gia ban san pham cua cong ty ABC Ltd. la 10$/v,

    trong o chi ph kha bien trc thue la 8$.

    Hien tai cong ty hoat ong cha het cong suat nen s gia tang

    doanh thu khong oi hoi phai gia tang chi ph co nh.

    Doanh thu hang nam cua cong ty hien tai la 2,4 trieu $.

    Gia s cong ty thay oi thi han ban chu t net 30 thanh net 60 tc la gia tang thi han ban chu t 30 ngay len thanh 60 ngay.

    S thay oi nay a en ket qua la ky thu tien bnh quan tang t 1

    thang len thanh 2 thang va doanh thu ban hang tang them

    360.000$. Cho chi ph vn = 20%.

    Chung ta phan tch xem s thay oi nay anh hng nh the nao va

    cong ty co nen thay oi thi han ban chu hay khong?

    Phan tch va quyet nh chnh sach thi han ban chu

    25

  • Gia s rang cong ty ABC Ltd. co doanh thu hang nam la 3 trieu $

    va ky thu tien bnh quan la 2 thang.

    Cong ty hien ang ap dung ieu khoan ban chu la net 60. Neu cong ty thay oi ieu khoan ban chu thanh 2/10 net 60 th ky thu tien bnh quan ky vong giam con 1 thang va c tnh co

    khoang 60 phan tram khach hang (tng ng 60% doanh thu) se

    lay chiet khau .

    Vi nhng thong tin a cho, phan tch xem cong ty co nen thay

    oi ty le chiet khau hay khong? Biet rang chi ph c hoi cua

    khoan phai thu van mc 20%.

    Phan tch va ra quyet nh thay oi ty le chiet khau

    26

  • Anh hng cua rui ro ban chu

    Chnh sach Hien tai A B

    Nhu cau, doanh thu ban chu 2.400.000 3.000.000 3.300.000

    Doanh thu tang them 600.000 300.000

    Ton that do n khong the thu hoi

    Doanh thu goc 2%

    Doanh thu tang them 10% 18%

    Ky thu tien bnh quan

    Doanh thu goc 1 thang

    Doanh thu tang them 2 thang 3 thang

    27

  • Ch tieu Chnh sach A Chnh sach B

    1. Doanh thu tang them

    2. Li nhuan tang them do tang doanh thu

    (Doanh thu tang them x lai gop)

    3. Khoan phai thu tang them

    (Doanh thu tang them/Vong quay khoan

    phai thu mi)

    4. au t khoan phai thu tang them

    (Khoan phai thu tang them x gia von)

    5. Chi ph c hoi do au t them vao khoan

    phai thu (20%)

    6. Ton that do n khong the thu hoi

    (Doanh thu tang them x ty le n khong

    the thu hoi)

    7. Tong thiet hai ( dong 5+6)

    8. Li nhuan tang them sau khi tr thiet

    hai: (2) (7) 28

  • Ch tieu Chnh sach A Chnh sach C

    1. Doanh thu tang them

    2. Li nhuan tang them do tang doanh thu

    (Doanh thu tang them x lai gop)

    3. Khoan phai thu tang them

    (Doanh thu tang them/Vong quay khoan

    phai thu mi)

    4. au t khoan phai thu tang them

    (Khoan phai thu tang them x gia von)

    5. Chi ph c hoi do au t them vao khoan

    phai thu (12%)

    6. Ton that do n khong the thu hoi

    (Doanh thu tang them x ty le n khong

    the thu hoi)

    7. Tong thiet hai ( dong 5+6)

    8. Li nhuan tang them sau khi tr thiet

    hai: (2) (7) 29

  • Chnh sach ban chu

    A B C D

    Mc tang doanh thu cua chnh sach sau so

    vi chnh sach trc (ty ong)

    2,8 1,8 1,2 0,6

    Ky thu tien bnh quan (ngay) 45 60 90 144

    Ton that n khong the thu hoi (%) 3 6 10 15

    30

  • Thong tin

    ve khach hang

    -Bao cao tai chnh

    -Xep hang tn dung

    -Kiem tra cua ngan hang

    -Kiem tra thng mai khac

    Uy tn

    cua

    khach

    hang

    T choi ban chu

    Quyet

    nh

    ban

    chu

    khong

    co

    1.3.2 Phan tch uy tn tai chnh

    cua khach hang mua chu

    31

  • 1. Khai niem, phan loai d an au t

    2. Dong tien cua d an au t

    3. Cac ch tieu anh gia d an au t

    4. Suat chiet khau d an

    Chng 2

    HOCH NH VN U T

    32

  • 2.1. Khai niem, phan loai d an au t

    2.1.1 Khai niem ve au t:

    La viec bo von ra dung vao viec san xuat, kinh doanh nham muc

    ch sinh li, bao gom hai giai oan:

    1. Giai oan bo von au t

    -au t ra ben ngoai DN: mua chng khoan, gop von lien

    doanh

    -au t vao ben trong DN: mua sam TSC va TSL

    2. Giai oan thu hoi von va co lai

    Doanh nghiep thu von la tien lai. Trong giai oan nay DN van

    phai tiep tuc bo chi ph cho cac loai TSL.

    33

  • 2.1.2 Phan loai au t

    Can c vao thi gian bo von au t va thc hien:

    - au t ngan han: mua trai phieu, gop von lien doanh

    di 1 nam

    - au t dai han: mua co phieu, trai phieu, gop von

    LD, mua TSC

    Can c vao muc tieu au t:

    - au t thay the

    - au t nang cap

    - au t mi

    34

  • 2.1.3 Qui trnh phan tch va ra quyet nh au t

    Xac nh d an:

    Tm c hoi va

    a ra e ngh

    au t vao d an

    anh gia d an:

    c lng dong

    tien lien quan va

    suat chiet khau

    hp ly

    La chon tieu

    chuan quyet

    nh:

    (PBP, NPV, PI,

    IRR, MIRR)

    Ra quyet nh:

    Chap nhan hay t

    choi d an

    Tm nguon von

    tai tr cho d an

    D

    A

    35

  • 2.2.1 Khai niem

    Dong tien (lu chuyen tien te cash flow) the hien s van ong (thu vao, chi ra) cua tien te trong mot d an

    au t.

    2.2. Dong tien cua d an

    Dong tin ra (outflows)

    Dong tin vo (inflows)

    Dong tin hot ng (operating cash flows_OCF)

    Dong tin thun (net cash flows)

    Dong tien la bang d toan thu chi trong suot thi gian

    tuoi tho cua d an, no bao gom nhng khoan thc thu

    (dong tien vao) va thc chi (dong tien ra) cua d an tnh

    theo tng nam.

    36

  • DOANH THU

    - Chi ph bng tin (khng bao gm li vay)

    - Khu hao

    Thu nhp hot ng trc li vay v thu _ EBIT

    - Thu TNDN (EBIT * t)

    Thu nhp hot ng thun sau thu _ NOPAT

    + Khu hao

    OCF _ Dng tin hot ng

    - Chi ph vn u t TSC

    - Chnh lch vn lu ng tng thm

    NCF _ Dng tin thun

    37

  • Dng tin hot ng OCF = EBIT.(1-t) + khu hao

    EBIT.(1-t) _ Li nhun hot ng thun sau thu NOPAT

    38

  • Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5

    Tng nhu cu vn lu ng

    hng nm 0 500 700 1000 900 700

    Thay i vn lu so vi

    nm trc 0 500 200 300 -100 -200

    Vn lu ng tng thm

    (phi b sung thm) 0 -500 -200 -300 100 200

    Chnh lch vn lu ng

    39

  • X l dng tin cui d n

    1. Ton b vn lu ng c thu hi

    2. Thu thanh l ti sn c nh: s dng dng tin sau

    khi tnh thu TNDN t bn thanh l ti sn.

    A B C

    1. Nguyn gi 10,000 10,000 10,000

    2. Khu hao 10,000 5,000 5,000

    3. GTCL (1) (2 ) 0 5,000 5,000

    4. Thu thanh l 3,000 3,000 7,000

    5. Chnh lch (4) (3) 3,000 (2,000) 2,000

    6. Thu (25%) 750 (500) 500

    7. CF 2,250 3,500 6,500 40

  • 2.2.2 Cac nguyen tac trong xay dng dong tien

    41

  • 0 1 2 3 4 5

    A. HOT NG

    Doanh thu

    Chi ph bng tin

    Khu hao

    EBIT

    Thu TNDN

    NOPAT

    OCF

    B. U T (VN)

    TSC

    TSL

    ICF

    D. NCF

    C. DT cui DA

    Thu thanh l

    Thu hi vn L

    ECF

    42

  • Mt d n u t c nhu cu vn u t ban u

    vo ti sn c nh l 5.000 triu ng v vo ti sn

    lu ng l 1.000 triu ng.

    D n c thi gian hot ng l 5 nm. Ti sn c

    nh c khu hao u trong 5 nm.

    Chi ph bng tin chim 40% doanh thu.

    Doanh thu nm u l 10.000 triu ng, cc nm

    sau mi nm l 25.000 triu ng.

    Thu sut thu TNDN l 25%.

    Khi kt thc d n thu thanh l ti sn c nh c

    500 triu ng (sau thu). Thu hi ton b vn u t

    vo ti sn lu ng.

    Xc nh dng tin thun ca d n.

    43

  • 0 1 2 3 4 5

    A. HOT NG

    Doanh thu

    Chi ph bng tin

    Khu hao

    EBIT

    Thu TNDN

    NOPAD

    OCF

    B. U T (VN)

    TSC

    TSL

    ICF

    C. DNG TIN

    THUN NCF

    44

  • Hot ng (7 nm)

    Doanh thu 3 nm u: 24.000, t nm th 4 tr i: 32.000

    Chi ph bng tin 3 nm u: 20.000; t nm th 4 tr i: 25.000

    Khu hao mi nm: 1.000

    Thu sut thu TNDN 28%

    u t

    Hin ti chi u t TSC: 7.000, chi u t TSL: 2.000

    Nm th 3: u t thm TSC: 1.000, TSL: 500

    Thu thanh l TSC (cha tr thu TNDN): 2.389 Thu hi ton b vn lu ng

    Yu cu:

    Tnh NPV, IRR, MIRR Li sut chit khu r = 12%, li sut ti u t i = 11%

    45

  • Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    A. Hot ng

    Doanh thu

    Chi phi bng tin

    Khu hao

    LN trc thu

    Thu (28%)

    LN sau thu

    Dong tin hoat

    ng OCF

    B. u t

    u t vo TSC

    u t vo TSL

    Dong tin u t

    NCF

    46

  • 2.3 Cac phng phap anh gia

    d an au t

    1. Phng php hin gi thun NPV

    2. Phng php t sut sinh li ni b - IRR

    3. Phng php t sut sinh li ni b hiu chnh MIRR

    4. Phng php thi gian hon vn - PBP

    47

  • Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5

    NCF -100 27 25 24 24 24

    NPV 3)1( r

    4)1( r5)1( r

    2)1( r

    1)1( r

    2.3.1 PHNG PHP HIN GI THUN

    NPV - Net present value

    L gi tr hin ti ca dng tin trong tng lai c

    chit khu bng chi ph s dng vn r.

    n

    tt

    t

    n

    n

    r

    CF

    r

    CF

    r

    CF

    r

    CFCFNPV

    02

    2

    1

    10

    )1()1(...

    )1()1(48

  • Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5

    A. Hot ng

    Doanh thu

    Chi phi bng tin

    Khu hao

    LN trc thu

    Thu (25%)

    LN sau thu

    Dong tin hoat ng OCF

    B. Chi u t

    u t vo TSC

    u t vo TSL

    Dong tin u t ICF

    C. Dng tin cui d n

    Thu Thanh l TSC

    Thu hi vn lu ng

    ECF

    FCF = OCF ICF + ECF

    49

  • Nhng d n c lp

    Nhng d n loi tr nhau

    a. Chn d n c NPV ln hn

    b. Xem xt s khc bit v thi gian v qui m d

    n

    LA CHN D N KHI KHNG B GII HN

    V NGUN LC TI CHNH

    50

  • Ty suat sinh li noi bo la lai suat rieng cua d an. Vi lai suat

    nay th tong hien gia cua cac khoan thu nhap trong tng lai

    bang tong hien gia cua von au t, v vay NPV = 0.

    Nham anh gia hieu qua cua d an

    Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5

    NCF -100 27 25 24 24 24

    NPV =

    0

    1)1( IRR

    2.3.2 PHNG PHP T SUT SINH LI NI B

    IRR Internal Rate of Return

    2)1( IRR

    3)1( IRR

    4)1( IRR

    5)1( IRR

    51

  • IRR r

    NPV

    0

    52

  • So snh phng php NPV v phng php IRR

    Sut chit khu giao nhau

    0 1 2 3

    A -700 500 300 100

    B -700 100 300 600

    5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

    A $134.68 $77.61 $27.38 ($17.13) ($56.80) ($92.35)

    B $185.65 $89.63 $8.31 ($61.11) ($120.80) ($172.46)

    IRRB = 16% IRRA = 18%

    53

  • ($200,000)

    ($150,000)

    ($100,000)

    ($50,000)

    $,000

    $50,000

    $100,000

    $150,000

    $200,000

    $250,000

    5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

    A B

    rc = 11,8% NPV = $58,8

    54

  • So snh phng php NPV v phng php IRR

    Sut chit khu giao nhau

    Nhng d n c lp

    Nhng d n loi tr nhau

    Xem xt s khc bit v thi gian v qui m d n

    55

  • 2.3.3 PHNG PHP T SUT SINH LI NI B HIU CHNH

    MIRR Modified Internal Rate of Return

    Ty suat sinh li noi bo co hieu chnh la ty suat sinh li lam

    cho hien gia cua dong tien chi ra cho au t d an bang vi

    hien gia gia tr ti han (terminal value) cua dong tien thu ve t

    d an.

    Gi tr ti hn l tng gi tr tng lai ca dng tin thu vo

    c tnh li kp theo li sut ti u t.

    i ty suat ti u t r Ty suat chiet khau (lai suat yeu cau cua d an)

    TV gia tr ti han cua dong tien thu ve t d an MIRR ty suat sinh li noi bo co hieu chnh n so nam d an hoat ong

    56

  • Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5

    NCF -100 27 25 24 24 24

    TV 2)1( ni1)1( ni

    PVdt MIRR ?

    3)1( ni

    1 ntPV

    TVMIRR

    57

  • 2.3.4 PHNG PHP THI GIAN HON VN

    Thi gian

    hon vn =

    S nm trc

    khi thu hi ton

    b vn (t)

    +

    Chi ph cha thu hi

    u nm (t +1)

    Dong tin trong nm thu

    hi ton b vn (t+1)

    58

  • D an oc lap, la d an ma viec chap nhan hay bac bo d an khong anh hng g en nhng d an khac ang c

    xem xet.

    D an phu thuoc, la d an ma viec chap nhan hay bac bo d an phu thuoc vao viec chap nhan hay bac bo mot d an

    khac.

    D an loai tr nhau, la nhng d an khong the c chap nhan ong thi, ngha la ch c chon mot trong so nhng

    d an o ma thoi.

    PHN LOI D N

    59

  • D an Loai ch tieu Quyet nh

    oc

    lap

    Thi gian hoan

    von

    (PBP)

    Chap nhan neu nho hn

    thi gian hoan von yeu

    cau

    T choi neu ln hn thi

    gian hoan von yeu cau

    Hien gia thuan

    (NPV)

    Chap nhan neu NPV > 0

    T choi neu NPV < 0

    Ch so li nhuan

    (PI)

    Chap nhan neu PI > 1

    T choi neu PI < 1

    Ty suat sinh li

    noi bo

    (IRR)

    Chap nhan neu IRR > Suat

    sinh li yeu cau

    T choi neu IRR < Suat

    sinh li yeu cau 60

  • D an Loai ch tieu Quyet nh

    Hai d an

    loai tr

    nhau

    Thi gian hoan von

    (PBP)

    Chap nhan d an nao co

    thi gian hoan von ngan

    hn

    T choi d an co thi

    gian hoan von dai hn

    Hien gia thuan

    (NPV)

    Chap nhan d an co NPV

    ln hn

    T choi d an co NPV

    nho hn

    Ch so li nhuan

    (PI)

    Chap nhan d an co PI

    ln hn

    T choi d an co PI nho

    hn

    Ty suat sinh li noi bo

    (IRR)

    Chap nhan d an co IRR

    ln hn

    T choi d an co IRR nho

    hn 61

  • 2.4. Chi ph s dung von bnh quan

    Nguon von Ty trong (%) Chi ph

    (%)

    N vay

    Vay dai han ngan hang

    Phat hanh trai phieu)

    Wd

    rd

    Von chu s hu

    Li nhuan gi lai Wre rre

    Co phan u ai Wp rp

    Co phan thng We re

    C phn mi pht hnh Wne rne

    nenerereeeppddWACC rWrWrWrWt)-1(r Wr 62

  • Chi ph s dung von co phan thng (re)

    g

    P

    Dr

    e

    0

    1

    63

    S dung mo hnh CAPM

    ).(fmfe

    rrrr

  • gcP

    Drne

    )1.(0

    1

    Chi ph s dung von co phan mi phat hanh

    64

    p

    p

    p

    P

    D

    r

    '

    Chi ph s dung von co phan u ai (rp)

  • 4.1.2. Chi ph s dung von co phan u ai (rp)

    p

    p

    p

    P

    D

    r

    '

    P

    p - Menh gia co phan u ai

    Pp: tien thu c t phat hanh co phan

    u ai

    V du:

    Cong ty o to Trng Hai d kien phat hanh co phieu

    u ai co menh gia 1.000.000 /cp vi mc chia co

    tc la 15%/nam. Chi ph phat hanh 2% menh gia.

    %31,15

    000.980

    000.150

    '

    p

    p

    p

    P

    D

    r

    priority 65

  • oi vi khoan n dai han

    1

    '0

    n nD

    P

    Fr

    Tra lai va von goc 1 lan

    P0: MV _ menh gia trai phieu

    P0: von vay thc te nhan c

    Fn: Von goc va lai phai tra khi ao han

    n

    rFP )1(

    66

  • Chng 3

    QUN TR RI RO

    3.1 Mc tiu ca qun tr ri ro

    - Khi nim, phn loi

    - Nhn din

    3.2 Cc hnh thc qun tr ri ro

    - Mua bo him

    - S dng cc cng c phi sinh

  • Khi nim ri ro

    Phn loi ri ro

    -Ri ro bt thng Mua bo him

    - Ri ro k vng S dng cc cng c phi sinh

  • Nhn din ri ro ti chnh

    -Ri ro bin ng gi

    -Ri ro t gi

    - Ri ro li sut

  • Mc tiu qun tr ri ro

    - Ri ro bt thng

    - Ri ro k vng

  • Cc cng c bo him ri ro

    Cc cng c bo him ri ro ra i trn nguyn tc

    Zero sum game. y l mt l thuyt tr chi m tng

    thit hi v li ch ca nhng ngi tham gia bng

    zero, li ch ca bn ny bng thit hi ca bn kia.

    Quyn chn (options)

    Hp ng k hn (forwards)

    Hp ng tng lai (futures)

    Hp ng hon i (swaps)

  • Hp ng quyn chn (Options)

    Khi nim, phn loi

    Cn c vo v th ca ngi mua hp ng quyn chn

    Cn c vo thi gian thc hin hp ng quyn chn

    Cn c vo ti sn c s

  • Gi tr quyn chn

    P0 l gi thc hin ca ti sn c s

    Pt l gi th trng ca ti sn c s vo thi im thc hin hp ng

    C l gi ca quyn chn mt n v ti sn c s

    N l s lng ti sn c s trong hp ng

    Bb l gi tr nhn c ca ngi mua quyn chn

    Bs l gi tr nhn c ca ngi bn quyn chn

  • Call Options

    Pt

    Bb

    0

    - C

    P0

    C

    P0+C

    Bs = (P0 + C Pt)* N Bb = (Pt P0 C)*N

  • Pt

    Bb

    0

    - C

    P0

    C

    ThS. Nguyn Vn Nht

    Put Options

    Bb = (P0 Pt C)*N

  • Hp ng k hn (Forwards)

    L hp ng tha thun gia hai bn, trong hai bn

    cam kt s thc hin bn (hoc mua) mt s lng ti sn

    c s vo mt thi im xc nh trong tng lai vi mt

    mc gi c xc nh ti thi im k hp ng.

    Li ch ca ngi mua, Bb = (Pt P0)* N

    Li ch ca ngi bn, Bs = (P0 Pt)*N

    Tng li ch = 0

  • Hp ng tng lai (futures)

    Khi nim:

    c im:

    -Giao dch qua S giao dch

    - K qu

    - Thanh ton li (l) hng ngy

  • Ngy 20/3/2013, cng ty A k hp ng tng lai

    mua 1.000 tn go vi gi 15 triu ng/tn vo

    ngy 30/6/2013. Tng gi tr thc hin hp ng l

    15 t ng.

    Cng ty A phi ng mt khon tin k qu ban

    u trong ti khon bo chng ti cng ty thanh ton

    b tr 500 triu ng. Mc duy tr thp nht l 300

    triu ng (maintenance margin), nu ti khon k

    qu cn li di 300 triu, cng ty A phi np thm

    tin vo duy tr mc k qu tr li 500 triu ng.

  • VT: ngn ng

    Ngy Gi ng ca

    (ngn ng/tn) Gi tr H tng lai

    Li (l) hng ngy

    S d trong TK bo chng

    20/3 15.000 15 (t ) 500.000 21/3 15.040 15.04 40.000 540.000 23/3 15.025 15.025 (15.000) 525.000 24/3 15.012 15.012 (13.000) 512.000 25/3 14.968 14.968 (44.000) 468.000 26/3 14.947 14.947 (21.000) 447.000 27/3 14.730 14.730 (217.000) 230.000 28/3 14.742 14.742 12.000 512.000

    Cng (258.000)

  • Hp ng hon i (swaps)

    Khi nim:

    Hp ng hon i l hp ng m hai bn tham gia tha

    thun hon i mt ngha v thanh ton c xc nh

    trc.

    Hp ng hon i c th l hp ng hon i li sut,

    hon i tin t, hon i c phiu, hon i hng ha

  • Hon i li sut:

    Vay vi li sut c nh

    Ri ro khi li sut th trng gim.

    Cho vay vi li sut c nh

    Ri ro khi li sut th trng tng.

  • Cng ty A pht hnh tri phiu vi tng mnh gi l 40 t

    ng, tri phiu tr li hng nm vo cui k, li sut c nh

    10%/nm, thi hn 5 nm. Hng nm cng ty A phi tr mt

    khon li c nh l 4 t ng. Cng ty mun hon i chi ph

    li theo li sut LIBOR bng cch tham gia hp ng hon i

    li sut vi ngn hng X.

    Theo tha thun trong hp ng hon i, ngn hng X hng

    nm phi tr cho cng ty A mt khon li c nh 8%, i li

    cng ty A s tr cho ngn hng X mt khon li hng nm theo

    li sut LIBOR + 2% tnh trn tng d n 40 t ng.

  • Nm 1 nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5

    Li sut LIBOR 6.2% 6% 5.9% 5.5% 6.3%

    Nhn c t NH 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2

    Chi tr cho NH -3.28 -3.2 -3.16 -3 -3.32 Chnh lch thu chi (NCF) -0.08 0 0.04 0.2 -0.12

  • Hon i tin t:

    Hon i tin t nhm gip cc cng ty vay n bng ngoi

    t c th hon i thnh cc khon vay ni t nhm gim

    ri ro t gi.

  • Cng ty A vay 1 triu USD vi li sut 6%/nm, thi hn vay 5

    nm, li tr nh k hng nm, gc tr khi o hn, cng ty A

    cn chuyn 1 triu USD sang VN s dng cho hot ng

    kinh doanh ti Vit Nam. Tuy nhin cng phi i ph vi ri

    ro t gi, bi v li tr nh k v n gc phi tr bng USD

    nhng cng ty khng c ngun thu t USD, nu t gi tng,

    cng ty s b l. bo him ri ro t gi, cng ty k hp ng

    hon i khon vay ngoi t bng mt khon vay ni t tng

    ng 1 triu USD, tnh theo t gi hin ti l 21.000

    ng/USD, li sut 10%/nm.

    Cng ty A chuyn giao 1 triu USD vay cho bn k hp

    ng hon i tin t v nhn 21 t ng. Mi nm cng ty s

    b tr ngha v tr li vay v tr n gc cho bn cho vay bng

    ngoi t ca bn k hp ng hon i tin t ng thi cng

    ty s tr li li v gc bng tin ng tnh theo li sut vay

    10%.

  • Nm 0 Nm 1- 4 Nm 5

    USD VN USD VN USD VN 1. Vay v tr n USD 1,000 (60) (1,060) 2. Hon i USD sang VN - Cng ty A nhn bng USD (1,000) 60 1,060 - Cng ty A tr bng VN 21,000 (2,100) (23,100)

    3. Ngn lu rng - 21,000 - (2,100) - (23,100)

  • Chng 4

    CHNH SCH C TC V

    MUA LI C PHIU

    4.1 Cc hnh thc v cch thc chi tr c tc

    4.2 Chnh sch c tc v gi tr cng ty

    4.3 Chi tr c tc bng c phiu v chia tch c phn

    4.4 Mua li c phn

    87

  • Tra co tc bang tien mat

    Cash devidend

    4.1.1 Cac hnh thc chi tra co tc (Dividend)

    4.1 Cac hnh thc va cach thc chi tra co tc

    Tra co tc bang co phieu

    Stock devidend

    88

  • TDH TRA CO TC BANG CO PHIEU

    Vn iu l hin c: 170 t

    Tr c tc bng c phiu t 4/2006:

    S lng pht hnh: 3.400.000 c phiu

    T l pht hnh: 5:1 (cn c vo ngy cht danh sch, c ng s

    hu 05 c phiu c s c chia 01 c phiu mi).

    Pht hnh cho c ng hin hu:

    S lng pht hnh: 1.700.000 c phiu

    T l pht hnh: 10:1 (cn c vo ngy cht danh sch, c ng

    s hu 10 c phiu s nhn c 10 quyn mua, v vi 10 quyn

    mua th s c mua 1 c phiu mi vi gi l 50.000 ng/c

    phiu). 89

  • NGUON VON S tin

    A-N PHAI TRA 338,000,000,000

    I. N ngan han

    II. N dai han 338,000,000,000

    B- VON CHU S HU 753,000,000,000

    I. Von chu s hu 745,000,000,000

    1. Von au t cua chu s hu 170,000,000,000

    2. Thang d von co phan 355,000,000,000

    7. Quy au t phat trien 69,000,000,000

    8. Quy d phong tai chnh 10,000,000,000

    10. LNST cha phan phoi 141,000,000,000

    II. Nguon kinh ph va quy khac 8,000,000,000

    1. Quy khen thng, phuc li 8,000,000,000

    CONG NGUON VON 1,091,000,000,000

    90

  • NGUON VON S tin

    A-N PHAI TRA 338,000,000,000

    I. N ngan han

    II. N dai han 338,000,000,000

    B- VON CHU S HU 753,000,000,000

    I. Von chu s hu 745,000,000,000

    1. Von au t cua chu s hu 170,000,000,000

    2. Thang d von co phan 355,000,000,000

    7. Quy au t phat trien 69,000,000,000

    8. Quy d phong tai chnh 10,000,000,000

    10. LNST cha phan phoi 141,000,000,000

    II. Nguon kinh ph va quy khac 8,000,000,000

    1. Quy khen thng, phuc li 8,000,000,000

    CONG NGUON VON 1,091,000,000,000

    91

  • Cac ch tieu:

    C tc: divident

    T l tr c tc:

    divident payout = divident/EPS

    T sut li nhun c tc:

    Dividend Yield = annual dividend per share / stock's

    price per share

    4.1.2 Cach thc chi tra co tc

    92

  • Cong bo Xac lap

    quyen

    hng

    co tc

    Khoa so Chi tra

    co tc

    MCP

    Ngy ng k cui cng tr c tc t I nm 2008

    Loi chng khon: C phiu ph thng

    Mnh gi: 10.000

    Ngy giao dch khng hng quyn: 18/11/2008

    Ngy ng k cui cng: 20/11/2008

    T l c tc t I/2008: 10% (1.000 ng/c phiu)

    Ngy chi tr c tc: 10/12/2008

    30/10 18/11 20/11 10/12

    4.1.3 Qui trnh chi tr c tc

    93

  • 4.2 Chnh sach co tc

    Li nhuan

    (c phn thng)

    Li nhuan gi lai Chia co tc

    Phat hanh co phan mi

    hay s dung li nhuan gi lai?

    Chnh sach co tc phai co tnh on nh, khong thay oi that

    thng va phai ac biet than trong trc khi quyet nh thay oi

    mot chnh sach co tc nay bang mot chnh sach co tc khac.

    94

  • THIT LP CHNH SCH C TC

    1. Chnh sch c tc sau u t

    2. Chnh sch tr c tc n nh

    (tng i, tuyt i)

    3. Chnh sch tha hip

    95

  • Kha cnh mang tnh chin lc:

    -Khng chia c tc nn long c ng gi gim

    - Chia c tc Phi pht hnh chng khon mi; nh hng kh nng kim sot cng ty

    Kh nng thanh ton:

    -Ch n thng nh gi kh nng tr n ca cng ty.

    - Nu tr c tc kh nng thanh ton gim

    96

  • Cc l thuyt v chnh sch c tc

    1. Chnh sch c tc c nh hng n gi tr cng ty:

    nu khng tn ti ngun ti tr bn ngoi, gi tr cng ty

    b nh hng bi ROI.

    97

  • Tnh huong 1:

    Toan bo nguon ngan lu rong c dung e tra co tc

    Gia du cong ty A tao ra mot dong ngan lu rong vnh

    vien la 1000$/nam.

    Cong ty quyet nh s dung toan bo nguon ngan lu

    rong nay e tra co tc la D (CF = D),

    Neu suat sinh li ma co ong oi hoi la ke = 10%

    Gia tr cua von chu s hu theo mo hnh chiet khau co tc se la:

    V0 = D/k

    e = 1000 / 0,1 = 10.000$

    98

  • Tnh huong 2: 50% cua nguon ngan lu rong c gi lai e tai

    au t vao d an co suat sinh li tren von au t ROI xay ra bi

    mot trong ba kha nang sau:

    Neu ROI = ke = 10%

    V0 = CF(1 b) / (k

    e b * ROI) = 1000(1 0,5) / (0,1 0,5 *0,1) =

    10.000

    Neu ROI = 15% > ke = 10%

    V0 = CF(1 b) / (k

    e b * ROI) = 1000(1 0,5) / (0,1 0,5 *0,15) =

    20.000

    Neu ROI = 5% < ke = 10%

    V0 = CF(1 b) / (k

    e b * ROI) = 1000(1 0,5) / (0,1 0,5 *0,05) =

    6.666

    99

  • Cc l thuyt v chnh sch c tc: 1. Chnh sch c tc c nh hng n gi tr cng ty:

    nu khng tn ti ngun ti tr bn ngoi, gi tr cng ty

    b nh hng bi ROI.

    2. Chnh sch c tc khng nh hng n gi tr

    cng ty: c tn ti ngun ti tr bn ngoi

    100

  • Gia s rang c hoi au t mi oi hoi cong ty A phai

    chi au t 1000$ vao nam nay, va nhan c mot nguon

    ngan lu rong la 200$/nam t nam ti cho en vnh vien,

    biet suat sinh li oi hoi cua co ong la 10%, khi ay

    NPV cua d an se la:

    NPV = -1000 + (200 / 0,1) = +1000$

    101

  • Tnh hung 1:

    Neu cong ty A gi lai toan bo nguon ngan lu rong cua nam

    nay e au t vao d an mi va nh vay ong ngha vi viec

    co ong cua cong ty A se khong nhan c co tc trong nam

    nay, khi o, gia tr th trng cua von chu s hu se la:

    V0 = Co tc nam nay + (PV cua co tc t hoat

    ong hien hanh) + (PV cua co tc t au t mi)

    = 0 + (1000 / 0,1) + (200 / 0,1) = 12.000$

    0 1 2 3 ...n

    Hin hnh 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

    T mi 200 200 200 200

    102

  • Tnh huong 2:

    .Chi ph au t 1000$ cho d an mi c huy ong t viec phat

    hanh co phieu mi, khi o:

    V0 = Co tc nam nay + (PV cua co tc t hoat ong hien hanh) +

    (PV cua co tc t au t mi) (Chi ph au t cho d an mi co c t phat hanh co phieu mi)

    = 1000 + (1000 / 0,1) + (200 / 0,1) 1000 = 12.000$

    0 1 2 3 ...n

    Hin hnh 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

    T mi (1.000) 200 200 200 200

    103

  • Cai lam thay oi gia tr cua von chu s hu la quyet

    nh au t ch khong phai chnh sach co tc.

    Nhng phn bin cc l thuyt v chnh sch c tc:

    -Mc quan tm m cc c ng dnh cho thu nhp t

    c tc nh th no?

    -Thu nhp t c tc trong tng lai c ri ro cao hn?

    -S nh hng ca th trng khng hon ho?

    -nh hng ca chnh sch thu?

    -Chnh sch c tc cho thy sc khe ca cng ty?

    104

  • Cac yeu to anh hng chnh sach co tc

    1. Cac han che phap ly:

    -Khong c dung von e tra co tc

    -Co tc ch c chi tra t li nhuan rong

    -Khong the chi tra co tc khi DN mat kha nang thanh

    toan

    105

  • 2. Chnh sach thue:

    -Co tc b anh thue thu nhap ca nhan

    -Co the co qui nh han che viec khong chi tra co tc

    e tranh thue thu nhap ca nhan

    106

  • 3. Kha nang thanh khoan:

    -Co the DN co li nhuan cao nhng van khong co kha

    nang chi tra co tc.

    -Cac DN ang tang trng nhanh thng co nhieu c

    hoi au t sinh li nhng van phai am bao tnh thanh

    khoan.

    107

  • 4. Kha nang vay n va tiep can cac th trng von:

    -Kha nang thanh khoan rat can cho DN e bao ve DN

    khi gap khung hoang tai chnh va tan dung cac c hoi

    au t kp thi.

    -Co the i vay e lam gia tang tnh thanh khoan tc

    thi

    -Li nhuan gi lai lam gia tang tnh thanh khoan cua

    DN.

    108

  • 5. On nh thu nhap:

    Cac DN ln thng duy tr mc chi tra co tc eu

    an hoac tang them

    DN hoat ong on nh

    Tao niem tin cho th trng

    6. Trien vong tang trng:

    DN tang trng nhanh thng can so von ln e

    tai tr cac d an hap dan co nhu cau gi lai li nhuan.

    109

  • 7. Bao ve chong loang gia:

    Khi chi tra co tc nhieu th sau o thng phai

    phat hanh co phan mi e huy ong von, hoac i vay

    von.

    8. Lam phat:

    DN phai chuan b von ngay cang nhieu hn e au

    t va mot tai san do lam phat cao Nhu cau tien mat tang gi lai LN.

    110

  • 4.3 Chi tra co tc bang co phieu va chia tach co phan

    111

  • 4.4 Mua lai co phan

    + Th thc mua li c phn

    + Cc tc ng ca thu

    + Cc tc ng pht tn hiu

    112

  • 5.1 D bo doanh thu

    5.2 Lp bo co ti chnh d kin

    Chng 5

    K HOCH TI CHNH V

    D BO TI CHNH

    113

  • 5.1 D bo doanh thu

    Lp k hoch ti chnh oi hi phi d bo v phn tch cc bo

    co ti chnh.

    D bo doanh thu c xy dng da trn s liu v doanh thu

    nhiu nm trc v k hoch kinh doanh sp ti ca cng ty.

    D bo doanh thu sai lch:

    D bo t hn so vi thc t Khng cung cp nhu cu th trng Khch hng mua hng ca cng ty cnh tranh Mt th phn

    D bo nhiu hn thc t: Vng quy vn thp, chi ph tn kho cao, li hun thp. Gim gi c phiu

    114

  • Phng php d bo doanh thu trc tip

    )*(1

    1 PiQiSn

    115

  • Phng php cn c vo tc tng trng BQ

    ca doanh thu

    Nm Doanh thu ( triu

    ng)

    Tc tng

    trng (thc t)

    D bo

    2008 14.500 -

    2009 18.125 25%

    2010 19.940 10%

    2011 24.930 25%

    2012 30.000 20,3%

    2013 20%

    -> D bo DT 2013 = 36.000 tr

    116

  • Nm ( t) Doanh thu

    thc t ( St)

    Doanh thu

    d bo

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    12.000

    17.000

    15.000

    14.000

    14.000

    18.000

    20.000

    19.000

    21.000

    22.000

    14.500

    15.000

    15.250

    16.500

    17.750

    19.500

    Tng s 20.500

    Phng php bnh qun di ng

    St+1 = ( St+ St-1+St-2 + . + St-n+1)/ n

    117

  • Nm ( t) Doanh thu

    thc t ( St)

    Doanh thu

    d bo

    Sai s tuyt

    i

    T l sai s Sai s bnh

    phng

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    12.000

    17.000

    15.000

    14.000

    14.000

    18.000

    20.000

    19.000

    21.000

    22.000

    14.500

    15.000

    15.250

    16.500

    17.750

    19.500

    500

    3.000

    4.750

    2.500

    3.250

    2.500

    0,036

    0,167

    0,238

    0,132

    0,155

    0,114

    250.000

    9000.000

    22.562.500

    6.250.000

    10.562.500

    6.250.000

    Tng s 20.500 16.500 0,842 54.875.000

    Phng php bnh qun di ng

    St+1 = ( St+ St-1+St-2 + . + St-n+1)/ n 118

  • Bng cn i k ton

    2005 2004

    Ti sn

    Tin v cc khan tng ng tin 10 80

    Khon phi thu khch hng 375 315

    Tn kho 615 415

    Tng ti sn ngn hn 1000 810

    Gi tr nh xng v thit b 1000 870

    Tng ti sn 2000 1680

    Ngun vn

    Phi tr nh cung cp 60 30

    Vay n ngn hn 110 60

    Khon phi tr khc 140 130

    Tng n ngn hn 310 220

    Tri phiu 750 580

    Tng n 1060 800

    C phiu thng (50 triu CP) 130 130

    Li nhun gi li 810 750

    Tng vn ch s hu 940 880

    Tng Ngun vn 2000 1680 119

  • Bo co thu nhp 2005 2004

    Doanh thu thun 3000 2850 Chi ph hot ng cha k khu hao 2616.2 2497

    Thu hp trc thu, li vay v khu hao (EBITDA) 383.8 353 Khu hao 100 90 Thu nhp trc thu v li vay (EBIT) 283.8 263 Li vay 88 60 Thu nhp trc thu (EBT) 195.8 203 Thu 78.3 81.2 Li rng 117.5 121.8 C tc CP thng 57.5 53 Li nhun gi li tng thm 60 68.8

    S liu mi c phn Gi c phiu thng 23 26 Thu nhp trn mi c phn (EPS) 2.35 2.44 C tc mi c phn 1.15 1.06 Gi tr s sch mi c phn (BVPS) 18.8 17.6 Dng tin trn mi c phn (CFPS) 4.35 4.24 120

  • Xc nh vn cn huy ng thm t bn ngoi - AFN

    Additional funds needed

    Vn cn

    huy ng

    thm

    =

    Ti sn

    d tnh

    tng

    thm

    -

    N phi

    tr tng

    thm

    -

    Li

    nhun

    gi li

    tng

    thm

    RRSMSS

    LS

    S

    AAFN ..

    **1

    00

    121

  • S0 Doanh thu nm bo co

    3,000

    S1 Doanh thu d bo 3,300

    S Doanh thu tng thm = 3.300 - 3000 300

    A*/S0 % ti sn/doanh thu = 2.000/3.000 66.7%

    L*/S0 = (Phi tr ngi bn + Phi tr khc)/Doanh thu 6.67%

    L* N phi tr tng t ng (Phi tr ngi bn, phi tr khc) 20

    M Li nhun rong / Doanh thu 3.92%

    RR T l % LN rong c gi li 51%

    Ti sn d tnh tng thm: 66,7% * 300 = 200

    Gia tng n phi tr tng ng: 6,67% * 300 20

    Li nhun gi li tng thm: 3.300 * 3,92% * 51% 66

    AFN = 114

    122

  • Cc yu t nh hng n ngun vn cn huy ng thm?

    1. S tng trng doanh thu : S

    2. Mc thm dng vn: A*/S0

    3. T l n hot ng so vi doanh thu: : L*/S0

    4. T l li rong: M

    5. T l li nhun gi li: RR

    123

  • TS 2006 2005 NV 2006 2005 1. TSNH 1.000 1. N 1.060 Tin 10 PT n. bn 60 HTK 615 Vay NH 110 Phi thu 375 P.Tr khc 140 2. TSDH 1.000 Vay DH 750

    2. VN 940 CP thng 130 LN g.li 810

    CNG 2.000 2.000

    Doanh thu 2005: 3.000 $ D kin DT nm 2006 tng 10% LN sau thu nm 2005: 117,5 $ LN gi li tng thm nm 2005: 60$

    124

  • iu chnh cng sut d tha

    Doanh thu mc cng

    sut ti a =

    Doanh thu thc t

    T l % s dng TS c nh

    T l TS c

    nh/DT mc tiu =

    TS c nh thc t

    Doanh thu ti a

    Mc TS c

    nh cn thit =

    T l TS c nh/DT

    mc tiu x Doanh thu d kin

    125

  • 5.2 Lp bo co ti chnh d kin D ton 2006

    Nm 2005 Ln 1 Ln 2 Ln 3 Ln 4

    TI SN

    Tin 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

    Khon phi thu 375.0 412.5 412.5 412.5 412.5

    Tn kho 615.0 676.5 676.5 676.5 676.5

    Tng TS lu ng 1,000.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0

    TS c nh rong 1,000.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0

    Tng ti sn 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,200.0 2,200.0 2,200.0

    NGUN VN

    Phi tr ngi bn 60.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0

    Vay ngn hn 110.0 110.0 122.1 122.7 122.8

    Phi tr khc 140.0 154.0 154.0 154.0 154.0

    Tng n ngn hn 310.0 330.0 342.1 342.7 342.8

    N di hn 750.0 750.0 832.4 836.8 837.0

    Tng n 1,060.0 1,080.0 1,174.5 1,179.5 1,179.8

    Vn gp ca c ng 130.0 130.0 144.3 145.0 145.1

    LN gi li 810.0 881.3 875.5 875.2 875.2

    Tng vn CP thng 940.0 1,011.3 1,019.8 1,020.2 1,020.2

    Tng ngun vn 2,000.0 2,091.3 2,194.2 2,199.7 2,200.0

    AFN 108.7 5.8 0.3 0.0 126

  • D ton 2006

    Nm 2005 Ln 1 Ln 2 Ln 3 Ln 4

    Doanh thu 3,000.0 3,300.0 3,300.0 3,300.0 3,300.0

    Chi ph (cha KH) 2,616.2 2,877.8 2,877.8 2,877.8 2,877.8

    Khu hao 100.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0

    Tng CP hot ng 2,716.2 2,987.8 2,987.8 2,987.8 2,987.8

    EBIT 283.8 312.2 312.2 312.2 312.2

    Li vay 88.0 88.0 97.6 98.2 98.2

    EBT 195.8 224.2 214.5 214.0 214.0

    Thu (40%) 78.3 89.7 85.8 85.6 85.6

    LN rng 117.5 134.5 128.7 128.4 128.4

    C tc 57.5 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.3

    LN gi li 60.0 71.3 65.5 65.2 65.2

    127

  • Doanh thu tng 10%

    C tc tng 10%

    Cc khon phi tr ngi bn, phi tr khc tng t ng theo mc tng doanh thu

    Ti sn tng thm c ti tr t Vay ngn hn, N di hn v Vn c phiu thng

    Li vay = 10,23%*(Vay ngn hn + N di hn)

    128

  • D ton 2006

    Nm 2005 Ln 1 Ln 2 Ln 3 Ln 4

    Doanh thu 3,000.0 3,300.0 3,300.0 3,300.0 3,300.0

    Chi ph (cha KH) 2,616.2 2,877.8 2,877.8 2,877.8 2,877.8

    Khu hao 100.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0

    Tng CP hot ng 2,716.2 2,987.8 2,987.8 2,987.8 2,987.8

    EBIT 283.8 312.2 312.2 312.2 312.2

    Li vay 88.0 88.0 97.6 98.2 98.2

    EBT 195.8 224.2 214.5 214.0 214.0

    Thu (40%) 78.3 89.7 85.8 85.6 85.6

    LN rng 117.5 134.5 128.7 128.4 128.4

    C tc 57.5 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.3

    LN gi li 60.0 71.3 65.5 65.2 65.2

    D ton 2006

    Nm 2005 Ln 1 Ln 2 Ln 3 Ln 4

    TI SN

    Tin 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

    Khon phi thu 375.0 412.5 412.5 412.5 412.5

    Tn kho 615.0 676.5 676.5 676.5 676.5

    Tng TS lu ng 1,000.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0

    TS c nh rong 1,000.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0 1,100.0

    Tng ti sn 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,200.0 2,200.0 2,200.0

    NGUN VN

    Phi tr ngi bn 60.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0

    Vay ngn hn 110.0 110.0 122.1 122.7 122.8

    Phi tr khc 140.0 154.0 154.0 154.0 154.0

    Tng n ngn hn 310.0 330.0 342.1 342.7 342.8

    N di hn 750.0 750.0 832.4 836.8 837.0

    Tng n 1,060.0 1,080.0 1,174.5 1,179.5 1,179.8

    Vn gp ca c ng 130.0 130.0 144.3 145.0 145.1

    LN gi li 810.0 881.3 875.5 875.2 875.2

    Tng vn CP thng 940.0 1,011.3 1,019.8 1,020.2 1,020.2

    Tng ngun vn 2,000.0 2,091.3 2,194.2 2,199.7 2,200.0

    AFN 108.7 5.8 0.3 0.0

    129