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Export from theBlack Sea region
• Phaethon International Co. S.A. is international shipping company providing transportation services in the sector of conventional bulk and steel cargoes
• Focuses on the handysize (20‐39999 mt dwt), handymax (40000 ‐64999 mt dwt) panamax (65000 ‐ 119999 mt dwt), capesize (120‐219999 mt dwt) segments and at any moment commercially controls fleet of about 70‐100 ships.
• Company started activity in 2009• 67 ships taken into time‐charter during first year of operation and 3 mio tons of dry
cargo moved from ports of Black Sea and Mediterranean seas to ports of Indian and Pacific ocean
• From 1st Jan 2012 till 20th May 2014 Phaethon chartered 626 vessels and carried abt 65 mio tons worldwide with following structure of chartered fleet:
Capesize 79 vesselsPanamax 192 vesselsHandymax 253 vesselsHandysize 102 vessels
446 vessels were chartered on spot basis and 180 vessels for short‐long period
GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW
These days, dry bulk seaborne trade is increasingly dominated by the steel industry and the power sector. 60 percent of all cargo volumes are either iron ore or coal. Growth in seaborne bulk trade has averaged about 5 percent y‐o‐y over the last decade, with iron ore and coal expanding by as much as 8 percent a year on average in the same period.China remains at the forefront of the action. Steel production in the country has increased by almost 9 percent year‐on‐year in 2013.
Crude steel output 2013China: up 9.3% year‐on‐year against 3.6% in 2012India: up 6% year‐on‐yearJapan: up 3% year‐on‐year EU: down 2% year‐on‐yearSouth Korea: down 5 % year‐on‐year.Steel product exports (China) up 9.7% year‐on‐year Imports of iron ore (China) up 10% year‐on‐year Electricity generation (China) up 8.1% year‐on‐year ( up from 4.4% in 2012).
In the first quarter 2014 (China):Iron ore imports: up 19 % year‐on‐year. Coal imports: up 5 % year‐on‐year . Soybean imports: up 33 % year‐on‐year Steel product exports: up 26 % year‐on‐year (but Steel prices in China continue to fall due to overproduction and
overcapacity)
Electricity generation up 7.7% year‐on‐year.
There are some concerns however. Growth in steel output in China is slowing down.Production increased by only 3.6 percent year‐on‐year in the first quarter of 2014. Steel prices have been extremely weak due to overcapacity in the sector. Same situation with coal. Ore stocks at ports have now increased to a record 116 million tonnes in May 2014. Iron ore prices are under pressure.
OVERVIEW OF BLACK SEA
• Black Sea – China: iron ore (mainly capesizes/split for handymax mainly during booming of capesize
• Black Sea – Jordan(Aqaba)/Saudi (PG‐Red Rea)/Iran/Pakistan /Bangladesh(Chittagong) /Seasia (Indonesia,Philipines)/China (corn): grain (panamax/handymax/handysize)
• Black Sea/Turkey – PG/India/SEASIA: steels (handymax/ handysize)• Black Sea/Turkey – USA: steel (handymax/handymax. panamaxes only for slabs)
• Black Sea – South America: fertilizers (mainly handysize)• Black Sea – Mediterranean/Continent: grains (panamax/supra/handysize)• Black Sea – USA: pig iron (panamax/handymax)• Black Sea – India/China: coal/metcoke (panamax/handymax/handysize)• Black Sea ‐Mediterranean/Continent: coal, hbi (handymax/handysize)• Black Sea – PG/India: clay (handysize)
• Till 2013 it was active fertilizer trade Black Sea – India/Seasia with fertilizers (BPC). Trade was done mainly by handysize
• Till 2013 it was active trade Black sea‐Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea : pig iron / panamax
Major cargo routes
• USA – Black sea: coal (capesize/panamax)
• ECSA – Black sea: sugar(handy/handymax)
• West Africa – Black sea: manganese ore/bauxite (handy/handymax)
• Indonesia – Black Sea: nickel ore (handy and handymax)
• PG/WCI‐Red Sea: clinker, hbi, grain (panamax, handymax, handysize – workable via Black Sea mainly during grain season ONLY)
• China – Med/Black Sea: steels/projects (handy, handymax)
Supply of tonnage:
Grain prospects• In 2013/14 harvest at Ukraine abt 63 mio and Russia abt 95 mio(export abt 32 mio from Ukraine and abt 20‐23 mio from Russia)
• In 2014/2015 harvest at Ukraine expected abt 50‐55 mio and abt92 mio at Russia. Export from Ukraine expected around 26 mioand export from Russia expected abt 24‐26 mio.
• It is expected that as per 2013/14 Ukraine will take the• second place in rating of world exporters of grain,• walking up him from a 7 place (2012/13 MGS), leaving• Argentina, ЕС, Australia, Canada and Russia behind.• The change of structure of world market of grain caused thechange of geography of export of grain. Ukraine expanded thepresence on the markets of South East Asia/China (in addition totraditional ones as Europe and Middle East)
• Low cargo liquidity at area (especially comparing with 2009‐2010)
• Reducing number of players (cargo traders who accept a risk) on the market
• High correlation of freight rates with grain season/ disbalance of rates
• One of the most important point to be considered at Black Sea is the probability of sudden freight rate volatility due to supply/demand disbalance (despite low general market volatility‐periods of volatility are )
• Less influence of piracy/goa risk on the rates
• Season risks (severe winter/demand for tonnage after end of ice)
• Due to redirection of cargo flows from Seavastopol (and other Crimea ports) to Mariupol/Odessa/Yuzhny/Illychevsk need to consider congestion factor (during grain season)
Type of garbage Ships outsidespecialareas
Ships withinspecialareas
Offshore platforms(more than 12 nmfrom land) and all
ships within 500 m ofsuch platforms
All other garbage including plastics, synthetic ropes, fishinggear, plastic garbage bags, incinerator ashes, clinkers, cooking oil,
floating dunnage,Lining and packing materials,paper, rags, glass, metal,bottles, crockery and similarrefuse
Dischargeprohibited
Dischargeprohibited
Dischargeprohibited
Overview of the discharge provisions of the revised MARPOL Annex V(resolution MEPC.201(62)) in force since 1 January 2013
ODESSA, UKRAINETEL : +38‐048‐737‐51‐63MOB : +380‐050‐395‐67‐30E‐MAIL : [email protected]
[email protected]@phaethon.com.ua
SEOUL, KOREA TEL : +82‐2‐738‐0667 E‐MAIL : [email protected]
Legal notice: the information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party’s, public (Clarkson and Bancosta research reports), and is provided for information purposes only. Phaethon International assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report. All rights reserved.
