swrh.whu.edu.cn

SKL – 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室STATE KEY LABORATORY OF WATER RESOURCES AND HYDROPOWER ENGINEERING SCIENCE

武汉大学水利水电学院 School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

Spatial Technologies: An Effective Tool to Overcome Data Scarcity for Disaster Risk Analysis in High Mountain Environment

Muhammad Yasir (PhD Research Scholar)

Wuhan UniversityMuhammadyasir036@gmail.com

+86 15927566553

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室2 2018/11/22

INTRODUCTION: General Context of the study

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• Varying discharge in Upper Indus River Basin (UIB) may result in theform of floods and droughts in mountainous regions

• Developing understanding of the hydrological regime and the impact ofclimate variability on Indus River catchments is extremely significant forflood prediction and water resource management

• Impact of changing climate on snow and glaciers results in extremevariation in stream flow which effects the water resource management inthe downstream areas by causing Floods and Droughts etc.

General Context of the study…

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室4 2018/11/22

Primary Focus

To simulate and forecast stream flow in the Shyok River Basinunder different future climate change scenarios for flood anddrought risk analysis

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室5 2018/11/22

Methodology/Strategy

Upper Indus Basin1. Gilgit2. Hunza3. Astore4. Shigar5. Shyok6. Shingo7. Zanskar

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室6 2018/11/22

§Remote Sensing Satellite dataASTER GDEM (30m x 30 m) for catchment area delimitationMODIS (MOD10A2) (1680 images) snow cover products (500m x 500m) (2000‒2006) for snow cover area and total area estimation

§Meteorological Data (Skardu PMD)Precipitation (daily) (2000-2006)Temperature (daily) (2000-2006)

§Stream Flow Data (WAPDA)Daily stream flow data (2000-2006)

Datasets Used

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室7 2018/11/22

ASTER: Study area GDEM

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室8 2018/11/22

ASTER: Shyok Glacier Cover

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室9 2018/11/22

MODIS: Annual Snow Cover Variation

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室10 2018/11/22

Zonal Features of Study Area (from hypsometry)

Zone A B C D E

Elevation Band (m) 2295–3500 3501–4500 4501–5500 5501–6500 6501–7755

Mean Elevation (m) 3075 4300 5100 5775 6550

% Area 2.1% 12.4% 61.8% 23.5% 0.2%

Area in Km2 1646.96 9856.59 49127.59 18724.19 160.86

Climate Station

Skardu

(Installed by PMD)

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室11 2018/11/22

Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM)Ø Snowmelt models

Ø Energy balance models (TOPKAPI, SNAP, ISNOBAL etc.)

Ø Degree-day models (HBV, HEC-1, SRM, Cemaneige etc.)

ØSnowmelt Runoff Model, SRM (Martinec, 1975)

Ø Degree-day model

Ø Simulation, forecasting and to study the climate change impact on river discharge in highmountaineous catchments

Ø Satellite remote-sensing cryosphere data as basic input

Ø Worldwide application.

Ø Tested by WMO (1986; 1992) for simulation and forecasting

Ø Zone-wise & basin-wide application

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Zone-wise Snow Cover Area (SCA)

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室13 2018/11/22

Zone-wise SRM application (2003)

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Basin-wide application: Input data (SCA)

2. Basin-wide SRM Application

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Basin-wide SRM application (2004)

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Climate change scenarios: Shyok River Basin1. Cryosphere (Snow & ice cover) area change:

20% until year2075, 10% until year 2050, due to increasing

precipitation (keeping mean temperature constant).

2. Mean temperature change:

4°C increase until year 2100, 3°C until year 2075, 2°C until year

2050 and 1°C until year 2025 (keeping other variables constant).

3. Scenario 1+2:

3°C increase in altitudinal zones & 20% increase in cryosphere area

until year 2075.

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室17 2018/11/22

Impact of Climate Variability on Shyok River RunoffScenario (1): Snow cover area (SCA) change

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室18 2018/11/22

Impact of Climate Variability on Shyok River RunoffScenario (2): Change in mean temperature

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Impact of Climate Variability on Shyok River RunoffScenario (3): +20% SCA & T+3 °C

水利水电学院 ▪水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室20 2018/11/22

ConclusionThe snowmelt runoff model (SRM) is proven to be efficientLinear relationship between SCA, Temperature and Simulated River DischargeClimate change impact on basin’s hydrology;

+1°C = +25% summer Q

+10% SCA = +11% summer Q

The snowmelt runoff modeling of Shyok River discharge for flood risk assessmentcan prove very significant for the hydrologists and risk managers for necessaryplanning and infra-structure development in the areaSpatial Technologies are a viable tool in predicting and assessing disaster risk and itseffective analysis for future times

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Thank You!