Strateginen)ennankoin,)vs.) Osallistava)ennakoin,)– Miksi ... · New Einstein’s science paradigm S t ... 9 JeromeC.Glenn,CEO,The Millenium!Project,!! ... Environmental!scanning!and!datamining!

Tuomo Kuosa Transforma*on futurist, PhD Alterna*veFutures

Strateginen ennankoin, vs. Osallistava ennakoin, – Miksi ennakoin*toiminnot-‐ ja toimijat edelleen jatkavat erikoistumistaan ja miten suomen julkinen ennakoin*-‐järjestelmä eroaa singaporelaisesta? Ton4uväitös 12.12.2012

www.alterna*vefutures.fi

Strateginen ja osallistava ennakoin, Strategisella ennakoinnilla tarkoitetaan systemaa.sta ennakoin/työtä, jolla tavoitellaan mahdollisimman hyvän kokonaiskuvan kokoamista olemassa olevasta ”peli/lanteesta” ja siinä avautuvista toimivista vaihtoehdoista /etylle päätöksentekijälle.

Osallistavassa ennakoinnissa tavoi;eena on ak/voida mahdollisimman suuri joukko ihmisiä visioimaan ja tuo;amaan toivo;avaa tulevaisuu;a.

Ennakoin,kar4a on Alternna*veFuturesin kehiCämä interak*ivinen tulevaisuus*edon systemaaEsen hyödyntämisen työväline. Se soveltuu sekä strategisen eCä osallistavan ennakoinnin työn tulosten kokoamiseen, analysoimiseen ja visualisoimiseen. Valmis ennakoin*karCa toimii sellaisenaan johdon strategisena työvälineenä, muCa erityisen suositeltavaa sitä on käyCää projek*n alkuvaiheen

Ennakoin,kar4a



www.yaCa.fi

Alterna*veFutures -‐ metodiikka Alterna*veFutures yhdistää tulevaisuuden strategista ja osallistavaa ennakoin*a osallistavaan suunniCeluun, nopeaan konseptoin*in, prototypoin*in ja pilotoin*in. TavoiCeenamme on päästä aina nopeas* ja kustannustehokkaas* käytännössä hyödynneCäviin tuloksiin.

Co-‐design Ennakoin**etoon perustuva osallistava yhteissuunniCelu on tehokasta. Hyvin fasilitoitujen ja dokumentoitujen workshoppien avulla organisaa*on oma (ja käyCäjien, tässä tapauksessa opiskelijoiden) osaaminen saadaan parhaalla tavalla käyCöön. MoComme on: kuuntele, ymmärrä, innosta ja tee tuloksia. Käytämme kehiCämäämme ideoiden ja konsep*en arvioin*kehikkoa ideoiden jalostamiseksi konsepteiksi. Työskentelemme samaan aikaan kolmella tasolla: Skenaariot-‐ ja strategiat, ideat ja konsep*t, sekä vaiheiCainen kehiCäminen (parannukset he*).

Value rational level

Empirical level

Horizons scanning

Early warning

Strategic Foresight

Trend extrapolations

“Participatory” Foresight

Pro-activity

Intelligence Weak signals analysis

Statistics

Corporate Foresight

Futures Studies

Critical Futures Studies

Strategy and brand development

Scenario level

Pre-activity

Pattern management Cross-impact analysis

Participatory view ��Bottom-up affecting

Decision maker’s view Top-down affecting

Futurology��La Prospective

Data mining

Modeling

Kuosa 2012

Visionary management

Delphi and workshops

Value rational level

Empirical level

Horizons scanning

Early warning

Strategic Foresight

Trend extrapolations

“Participatory” Foresight

Pro-activity

Intelligence

Weak signals analysis

Statistics

Corporate Foresight

Futures Studies

Critical Futures Studies (CLA)

Strategy and brand development

Scenario level

Pattern management Cross-impact analysis

Participatory view Bottom-up affecting

Decision maker’s view Top-down affecting

Data mining

Modeling

Visionary management

Delphi and workshops

POLITICAL VIEWS

SELECTING STRATEGY

RISK DETECTION

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

PARTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS

CREATING VISIONS AND STUDYING VALUES

IDENTIFYING VIABLE OPTIONS

IDENTIFYING VIABLE OPTIONS

Futurology La Prospective

Pre-activity

Kuosa 2012

1940s World War II

2000s 1960s 2020s

Management thinking

Systems thinking

Prediction thinking

Dialogic thinking

Futurology

Dynamical systems

Environmental futures studies

Strategic management

Proactive futures studies

2010s 1970s 1980s

Dialogic debates in antiquity

Paradoxes Options Linkages Mindsets Cognitive arguments

Control of information Engineering Categorization Modeling Systemic arguments

Control of functions Military Knowing directly Physical arguments

Control of life Oracle Seeing future directly Magical arguments

Control of desired images Value-rational Addressing selected challenges of future Moral arguments

Humanistic orientation How to solve the huge problems of humankind Humanistic arguments

Paradigm I of FS

Paradigm II of FS

New Einstein’s science paradigm

Paradigm

III of FS

Strategic Foresight

© Kuosa 2011

Haastatellut ja kommentaaCorit

Yhdeksän kirjaa varten haastateltua: -‐  Patrick Nathan -‐  Ilan Mizrahi -‐  Jyrki Kasvi -‐  Helene Lavoix -‐  RiiCa Kirjavainen -‐  Markku Wilenius -‐  Rauno Kuusisto -‐  Osmo Kuusi -‐  Devadas Krishnadas Kirjan keskusteluluvun nro. 15 kirjoiCaja: Henry Kwok Singaporean long-‐term business developer and global partner of Haines Centre for Strategic Management and founder of Spaces@work consultancy.

Työpaikat, joissa kirjoiCaminen ja tutkimus on tapahtunut: -‐  Centre of Excellence for Na*onal Security (CENS) -‐  S. Rajaratnam School of Interna*onal Studies (RAHS) of Nanyang

Technological University in Singapore -‐  Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office’s Na*onal Security Coordina*on

Centre (NSCC) -‐  Finland Futures Research Centre / Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus -‐  Alterna*veFutures/YATTA oy

Kirjan pääkommentaaCori: Dr John P. Geis Colonel and director of the US Air Force’s Center for Strategy and Technology Muut kommentaaCorit ja kirja-‐arvostelun kirjoiCajat: -‐  Jerome C. Glenn, CEO, The Millenium Project,

Washington, USA -‐  Dr Jari Kaivo-‐oja, Adviser in Foresight R&D, Crisis

Management Ini*a*ve, New York & Helsinki Offices -‐  José Cordeiro, Energy advisor, Singularity University, NASA

Ames, California, USA.

Kirjan sisältö

CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgements Figures Tables PART I: KNOWLEDGE 1. Introduc*on 2. Foresight concepts What is foresight? What is fully-‐fledged and par*cipatory foresight? What are futures studies and futurology? What are the objec*ves of foresight and futures domain? What are predic*on and fortune-‐telling? What is an*cipa*on? What is forecas*ng? What is exploratory and norma*ve forecas*ng? What is Greek triangle and la prospec*ve? What is cri*cal futures studies? What is vision? What is weak signal? What are change factors, wild cards, drivers, trends and scenarios? What are grand challenges? 3. Strategic concepts What is strategic? What is intelligence? What are business intelligence and corporate foresight? What is strategic intelligence? What is strategic foresight? Summary of foresight and intelligence concepts

4. Evolu*onary concepts What is evolu*on and co-‐evolu*on? What is complexity? What is autopoiesis and self-‐renewal? What is open system and dynamical process? What is dissipa*ve self-‐organiza*on and emergence? What is chaos theory and chaos in quantum and macro-‐level? What is far-‐from-‐equilibrium and laws of thermodynamics? What is causality and correla*ons in different types of systems? Summary of evolu*onary and systemic concepts 5. Inferring in theory What is reasoning? What is fallibilism? What are the interests of knowledge? What is object, observa*on, interpreta*on and knowledge? What is methodology and research strategy?

6. Inferring in foresight Environmental scanning and data mining Analysis and categorizing PaCern management and synthesizing Roadmapping and technological forecas*ng Crea*ve visioning Early warning and emerging issues analysis Holis*c sense-‐making Alterna*ve objec*ves and mindsets towards the future Alterna*ve futures scenarios Strategic management Summary of futures domain methodologies

PART II: STRUCTURE 7. Principles of strategic foresight in public policy making 8. Strategic foresight in European Union’s some old member states’ public policy making Cases from the European Union Case from Finland Case from France Case from Germany Case from Ireland Case from the Netherlands Case from Sweden Cases from the United Kingdom 9. Strategic foresight in European Union’s ten new member state’s public policy making Cases from Cyprus Cases from the Czech Republic Cases from Estonia Cases from Hungary Cases from Lithuania Cases from Latvia Cases from Malta Cases from Poland Cases from Slovakia Cases from Slovenia 10. Strategic foresight in some other countries’ and transna*onal organiza*ons’ public policy making Cases from Singapore Cases from the United States Cases from OECD Cases from IIASA Cases from UNIDO

PART III: PROCESS 11. How could strategic foresight process facilitate na*onal decision making beCer – views of policy makers and high government officials 12. How could strategic foresight process facilitate na*onal decision making beCer – views of strategic foresight knowledge producers 13. How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems – views of strategic foresight knowledge producers 14. How could we improve our public strategic foresight systems – views of policy makers and high government officials PART IV: DISCUSSION 15. Trilogy of systems thinking, foresight and strategic management 16. Adjus*ng foresight, intelligence and inferring for different types of systems Conclusion Bibliography Index

Suomalainen ja singaporelainen ennakoinnin järjestelmä

Finnish Parliament

Committee for the Future

Finnish Society for Futures Studies

Other 15 committees.Legislation

issues

Aggregates Parliamentary report on The Government

Foresight Report

The Government Foresight Report Writing is supervised by a group of ministers. Mostly written by State’s sector research institutes

Government Programme

Makes technological assessment reports for the

Parliament

SITRA’s Foresight network

Foresight consortium for labour force, competence, and educational needs

Government Foresight Network

Other 10 National Ministries

Finland Futures Research Centre together with FFA

Economic Council (cheered by PM)

Highest level discussion and sense-making forum between

government’s key ministers, the head

of Central bank, and several

representatives of the Finnish industries.

PM’s Office’s Policy-Analysis Unit

Economic Council’s Secretariat It is the body, which constantly selects new themes to be studied, and ends

running studies according the changing needs of the decision makers.

Finnish Government

Prime Minister’s Office

Ministry of Finance

Predictions for the economy. Makes budget

Ministries Future Reviews

Long-term Finnish Policy-Making environment reports

Makes submissions to other committees on futures-related

matters

State’s sector

research institutes

Finnish futurists community

Conducts research associated with futures studies

Futures units in companies

Think Tanks.

International actors such as EU, OECD, IPCC and futurists

communities

Funding agencies such as TEKES

Kuosa 2012

Ministry of Finance Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office

Permanent Secretary for National Security &

Intelligence Coordination (Peter Ong, 2010)

Public Service Division (PSD)

National Security Coordination

Centre (NSCC)

Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF). est. 2010. Coordinating staff for all

futures work in GOS incl. SFN. Aiming for increasing GOS’ situational awareness, overcoming scale

limitations, and combining knowledge to practical combination projects

Strategic Policy Office (SPO). Org. Scenario Planning Office est.1991 to MINDEF. Moved to PMO in 1995. New name

and objective in 2003

Head of Civil Service

(Peter Ong, 2010)

Strategic Futures Network (SFN) est. 2010 (Peter Ong) All Ministries Deputy Secretaries are

members. Aims to A. better diversity of opinions B. better quality anticipatory intelligence, C. avoiding

the phenomena of group thinking in GOS

Permanent Secretary for Finance (Peter Ong)

National Budget, Financing all Ministries, Whole of Government view in Fiscal issues

Joint Counter Terrorism Centre (JCTC)

Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) est. 2006. RSIS-NTU. University research related to

international politics and security related issues.

RAHS Experimentation Centre. est. 2004 in partnership with HSC and Defence Science &

Technology Agency (DSTA). Engineering work for risk Assessment and Horizons Scanning. Software

and tools development

National Security Engineering Centre (NSEC), est. 2005 by DSTA. Task to advice NSCC to better coordinate and focus technology and engineering efforts in national security.

The Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC). est. 2008. Staff for all RAHS programme analysis work. Establishing, educating and building futures

capacities to GOS

International Futures Community. Global Futures Forum, IRAHS Symposium etc.

Singapore Futures Community (outside the Government, companies, business schools,

university units)

Strategic Foresight Unit

(SFU). Est. 2010. Aims to

ensure that the benefits of the

whole of government

futures work are utilized in

budget making

Other futures or environment scanning

units in GOS’ ministries

Public Service Commission

Secretariat (PCS) etc. units in PSD

Kuosa 2012

Ministry of Finance





Centre (NSCC)







(Peter Ong, 2010)














capacities to GOS



university units)




whole of government


budget making





Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office

Ministry of Finance





Centre (NSCC)







(Peter Ong, 2010)














capacities to GOS



university units)




whole of government


budget making





Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office

Tuomo Kuosa Transforma*on futurist, PhD www.alterna*vefutures.fi www.tuomo.tel +358 44 0360688

Yhteys*edot

Tuomo.kuosa (at) alterna*vefutures.fi

Documents

Strateginen)ennankoin,)vs.) Osallistava)ennakoin,)– Miksi ... · New Einstein’s science paradigm S t ... 9 JeromeC.Glenn,CEO,The Millenium!Project,!! ... Environmental!scanning!and!datamining!